Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
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Thread for predictions regarding the upcoming AFLW season.
AFLW Predictions - Season Seven
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Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
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Here's what I've got so far:
Ladder
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
North Melb – Toss-up with Freo, but not expecting either to make the GF without a few unlikely improvements
Fremantle
Collingwood
W. Bulldogs
GWS Giants – I like the midfield duo of Parker & Beeson with the leadership of Eva more than any other team’s three-point foundation. They finished 9th last season, behind the now-decimated Carlton on a narrow % difference, despite Beeson and Dalton missing 6 games each and Parker KO’d in the Richmond loss.
-----------------------
Richmond
Carlton – Wooden-spooners before Prespakis arrived, a genuine contender for one season (2020, the season after they made the GF) but a textbook mid-ladder team during the rest of her time there. 10th place prediction is based on the reasonable argument of certain key youngsters stepping up, otherwise they’ll slide much lower.
Geelong
St Kilda – Even with the return of Patrikios and the addition of Stevens, I’m not expecting their 11th place finish in 2021 will be matched or surpassed until some overdue good news for a few other players.
West Coast
Gold Coast
Essendon
Port Adelaide – Biggest wildcard because they have 5 games against lowly rated teams in which Phillips could be the difference, as she was in several of the Crows’ close encounters last season against highly rated teams (but the GF certainly wasn’t one of them, despite Riley Beveridge’s claim on draft night).
Hawthorn
Sydney
Premiers
Melbourne are the safest bet to make the grand final because of the midfield depth, so I’m going to settle on them as my flag fancies again even though it’s that same midfield which has repeatedly been found wanting in big games across the last 4 years (but they’ve often been saved in those instances by heroics from elsewhere on the ground—particularly via the captain but also Cunningham/Zanker/Harris).
Last season’s tip: Melbourne (runners-up)
Last season’s winner: Adelaide
League B&F
Can’t go past Anne Hatchard, who is coming off 20 votes with a bad foot.
Last season’s tip: Monique Conti (equal 10th)
Last season’s winner: Emily Bates
Rising Star
I’m going with Ella Friend, who had a solid debut season despite limited preparation, and should benefit from playing in an improved St Kilda team. Plus she’s a high draft pick, not a bottom-ager, and plays for a Melbourne club—traits common (almost mandatory) among past winners.
Last season’s tip: Alyssa Bannan (5th)
Last season’s winner: Mimi Hill
Leading Goalkicker
I think the winner will be propelled by a record-breaking haul against the Swans. So I’m backing Chloe Molloy, on the condition she spends enough time in the forward-line, otherwise Cora Staunton.
Last season’s tip: Danielle Ponter (5.11 in H&A season)
Last season’s winner: Ashleigh Woodland
Ladder
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
North Melb – Toss-up with Freo, but not expecting either to make the GF without a few unlikely improvements
Fremantle
Collingwood
W. Bulldogs
GWS Giants – I like the midfield duo of Parker & Beeson with the leadership of Eva more than any other team’s three-point foundation. They finished 9th last season, behind the now-decimated Carlton on a narrow % difference, despite Beeson and Dalton missing 6 games each and Parker KO’d in the Richmond loss.
-----------------------
Richmond
Carlton – Wooden-spooners before Prespakis arrived, a genuine contender for one season (2020, the season after they made the GF) but a textbook mid-ladder team during the rest of her time there. 10th place prediction is based on the reasonable argument of certain key youngsters stepping up, otherwise they’ll slide much lower.
Geelong
St Kilda – Even with the return of Patrikios and the addition of Stevens, I’m not expecting their 11th place finish in 2021 will be matched or surpassed until some overdue good news for a few other players.
West Coast
Gold Coast
Essendon
Port Adelaide – Biggest wildcard because they have 5 games against lowly rated teams in which Phillips could be the difference, as she was in several of the Crows’ close encounters last season against highly rated teams (but the GF certainly wasn’t one of them, despite Riley Beveridge’s claim on draft night).
Hawthorn
Sydney
Premiers
Melbourne are the safest bet to make the grand final because of the midfield depth, so I’m going to settle on them as my flag fancies again even though it’s that same midfield which has repeatedly been found wanting in big games across the last 4 years (but they’ve often been saved in those instances by heroics from elsewhere on the ground—particularly via the captain but also Cunningham/Zanker/Harris).
Last season’s tip: Melbourne (runners-up)
Last season’s winner: Adelaide
League B&F
Can’t go past Anne Hatchard, who is coming off 20 votes with a bad foot.
Last season’s tip: Monique Conti (equal 10th)
Last season’s winner: Emily Bates
Rising Star
I’m going with Ella Friend, who had a solid debut season despite limited preparation, and should benefit from playing in an improved St Kilda team. Plus she’s a high draft pick, not a bottom-ager, and plays for a Melbourne club—traits common (almost mandatory) among past winners.
Last season’s tip: Alyssa Bannan (5th)
Last season’s winner: Mimi Hill
Leading Goalkicker
I think the winner will be propelled by a record-breaking haul against the Swans. So I’m backing Chloe Molloy, on the condition she spends enough time in the forward-line, otherwise Cora Staunton.
Last season’s tip: Danielle Ponter (5.11 in H&A season)
Last season’s winner: Ashleigh Woodland
Round 10 Ladder (fixture difficulty in a short season a considerable factor, this isn't a "best to worst" ranking):
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
GWS
Richmond
Collingwood
Essendon
Hawthorn
Geelong
Carlton
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Sydney
West Coast
I wouldn't be surprised seeing the Dogs, Bombers and Suns jump a few spots up, they have the easier fixtures in their brackets. Same with Freo, top of the table is theirs for taking.
Premiers:
Brisbane. IMO they have the toughest fixture so slid down, but my tip to win it from 5th by winning all four finals! Adelaide or Melbourne runner-up.
My finals tips. Week 1:Adel def Freo, Melb def Kang, Bris def GWS, WB def GC. Week 2: Bris def Frem, Kang def WB. Week 3: Adel def Kang, Bris def Melb. GF: Bris def Adel.
League B&F:
Kiara Bowers. Again, the easier fixture should help here and might just get them over line in a very tight count. I'm thinking the Crows will pinch votes from each other again, although the same could be said with Freo.
Rising Star:
Ash Richards. Has sublime skils and flair to catch the eye. Hopefully building her engine and can get more touches this season. And a long awaited nomination for Molly McDonald.
Leading Goalkicker:
Such a short season, could be anyone. I'll tip Tara Bohanna to cash in on their easier fixture. And a roughy from out of nowhere, Tamara Luke.
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
GWS
Richmond
Collingwood
Essendon
Hawthorn
Geelong
Carlton
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Sydney
West Coast
I wouldn't be surprised seeing the Dogs, Bombers and Suns jump a few spots up, they have the easier fixtures in their brackets. Same with Freo, top of the table is theirs for taking.
Premiers:
Brisbane. IMO they have the toughest fixture so slid down, but my tip to win it from 5th by winning all four finals! Adelaide or Melbourne runner-up.
My finals tips. Week 1:Adel def Freo, Melb def Kang, Bris def GWS, WB def GC. Week 2: Bris def Frem, Kang def WB. Week 3: Adel def Kang, Bris def Melb. GF: Bris def Adel.
League B&F:
Kiara Bowers. Again, the easier fixture should help here and might just get them over line in a very tight count. I'm thinking the Crows will pinch votes from each other again, although the same could be said with Freo.
Rising Star:
Ash Richards. Has sublime skils and flair to catch the eye. Hopefully building her engine and can get more touches this season. And a long awaited nomination for Molly McDonald.
Leading Goalkicker:
Such a short season, could be anyone. I'll tip Tara Bohanna to cash in on their easier fixture. And a roughy from out of nowhere, Tamara Luke.
My tip is for a Grand Final rematch, Melbourne vs Crows again, with the opposite result this time. Hope I'm wrong!
I'll tip Hatchard for Season MVP and Tayla Harris for lead goalscorer.
I'll tip Hatchard for Season MVP and Tayla Harris for lead goalscorer.
- Mar 27, 2018
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ok ill have a crack.
Ladder:
1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Adelaide
4. North
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Dogs
8. Carlton
9. GWS
10. GC
11. Geelong
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. Port
15. St Kilda
16. West Coast
17. Hawthorn
18. Sydney
Premiers:
Brisbane - Pretty much retained a full list that's age demographic has a lot of scope to improve on last season. Have the most potent fwd line. Also think playing the season in the summer months will be an under-rated advantage for them. PF loss to Melb was in tough conditions, played again in 28 degrees i think they win well. Will have to work around what looks like the hardest fixture.
B&F:
Hatchard
Rising Star:
Montana Ham
Leading Goal-kicker:
Dakota Davidson
Ladder:
1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Adelaide
4. North
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Dogs
8. Carlton
9. GWS
10. GC
11. Geelong
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. Port
15. St Kilda
16. West Coast
17. Hawthorn
18. Sydney
Premiers:
Brisbane - Pretty much retained a full list that's age demographic has a lot of scope to improve on last season. Have the most potent fwd line. Also think playing the season in the summer months will be an under-rated advantage for them. PF loss to Melb was in tough conditions, played again in 28 degrees i think they win well. Will have to work around what looks like the hardest fixture.
B&F:
Hatchard
Rising Star:
Montana Ham
Leading Goal-kicker:
Dakota Davidson
- Nov 14, 2010
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Expecting the same 6 teams that made finals the last 2 years to make the finals again
The 2 new teams to make finals will be just making up the numbers lets go with gws and tigers
The 2 new teams to make finals will be just making up the numbers lets go with gws and tigers
petits
Team Captain
- Feb 8, 2022
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Very much here for this timeline!
I support both NSW teams and don't want the Swans to do badly, they have the potential to create so much more support in NSW if they were good. But I think the predictions that they will spoon are very likely, and if so, I'd love Cora to be the one to kick a massive haul on them in her maybe last season.
Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
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Yes and I don't want it to seem like I'm picking on the Swans, especially since there's merit in the point Scott Gowans raised (the short turnaround stifling their ability to lure several of the players they were chasing). His self-described "optimistic" expectation of winning as many games as losing just isn't the surprise result I'm favouring.
I guess if I've got a somewhat bold tip, it's concerning West Coast: despite the recently exited youth and Irish talent, they should prove to have effectively more-than-covered those losses through draftees and the return of Aisling McCarthy (really only played 3 games last season). And if I'm at all right about that, they will be 3-0 to start the season.
Has to be some genuine doubt about the Eagles' R1 opponent, Port Adelaide, specifically in regards to what sort of nick their best player will be in (Phillips yet to hit the training track proper--it's certainly taking her longer than the "couple of weeks" as initially hoped).
I guess if I've got a somewhat bold tip, it's concerning West Coast: despite the recently exited youth and Irish talent, they should prove to have effectively more-than-covered those losses through draftees and the return of Aisling McCarthy (really only played 3 games last season). And if I'm at all right about that, they will be 3-0 to start the season.
Has to be some genuine doubt about the Eagles' R1 opponent, Port Adelaide, specifically in regards to what sort of nick their best player will be in (Phillips yet to hit the training track proper--it's certainly taking her longer than the "couple of weeks" as initially hoped).
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Melbourne premiers over the winner of an Adelaide/Brisbane prelim.
Hard to go past Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane for me. With Freo a touch behind.
Hard to go past Swans for the spoon.
Everything in between in a short season is a raffle.
On SM-X200 using BigFooty.com mobile app
Hard to go past Swans for the spoon.
Everything in between in a short season is a raffle.
On SM-X200 using BigFooty.com mobile app
Predictions
Bris, Melb and Ade dominant over the others and unlikely to lose to any teams that are out of the top 3.
Expansion teams in quality seem pretty clear with Ess, Port, Hawks and Syd clearly last. Sydney to be woeful.
Risers - most teams hurt by expansion but Geel and Rich get a leg up overall with new players. Saints lost a few but got a few back. With Smith and Patrikios back and Dal Santo with a bit more experience I think they improve.
Fallers - Most teams lose quality especially Carl, WB, GWS and GC. Biggest loser was WC - terrible last year and now lose 8 regulars to retirement, injury and expansion teams. Coll unlucky - lost a few pieces but Bonnici joins Davey out which means zero premiership hopes this year.
Margins - Schedules generally protecting the weaker teams but still should see some absolute smashings. Pity Sydney avoid Bris, Melb and Ade as I would have been getting on some 100+ margins.
Bris
Melb
Ade
Daylight
NM
Freo
Daylight
WB
Coll
Rich
Geel
GWS
Carl
StK
GC
Ess
Port
WC
Hawks
Syd
Bris, Melb and Ade dominant over the others and unlikely to lose to any teams that are out of the top 3.
Expansion teams in quality seem pretty clear with Ess, Port, Hawks and Syd clearly last. Sydney to be woeful.
Risers - most teams hurt by expansion but Geel and Rich get a leg up overall with new players. Saints lost a few but got a few back. With Smith and Patrikios back and Dal Santo with a bit more experience I think they improve.
Fallers - Most teams lose quality especially Carl, WB, GWS and GC. Biggest loser was WC - terrible last year and now lose 8 regulars to retirement, injury and expansion teams. Coll unlucky - lost a few pieces but Bonnici joins Davey out which means zero premiership hopes this year.
Margins - Schedules generally protecting the weaker teams but still should see some absolute smashings. Pity Sydney avoid Bris, Melb and Ade as I would have been getting on some 100+ margins.
Bris
Melb
Ade
Daylight
NM
Freo
Daylight
WB
Coll
Rich
Geel
GWS
Carl
StK
GC
Ess
Port
WC
Hawks
Syd
There are a bunch of significant injuries going into this season, although touch wood so far we are unscathed. Antonio from Freo just went down today, potentially for the season. McNamara from Melbourne is out for the season with a spinal fracture. Obviously Lutkins from Brisbane remains out, as well as Davey and Bonnici from Collingwood. Gee has gone down at Gold Coast, McEvoy at Carlton, even Essendon have lost their top selection to an ACL.
Nice predictions but have a few queries.
Last couple of years GWS have had the Parker, Eva and Beeson triple and they've been ordinary at best. Hugely reliant on 40 year Staunton. Despite the 3 good mids they still rate poorly for contested and uncontested possessions. Lose 6 players from last year - I'm struggling to see the upside here?
WC were atrocious last year. This year they look to be decimated with injury (Gooch), retirements (Laurie) and departures (2 Kelly's, Bowen and a few others). Starting lineup from round 1 earlier this year will have 8 players missing. How do you see them improving on last year?
Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
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Is Staunton's age going to stop her from being a reliable source of goals this season? I haven't seen any reason to think so. And I'd hardly say the Giants' forwardline is much more one-dimensional than Richmond's (the team you have finishing top 8), who also only had one player kicking more than 5 goals last season.
As far as the other points, like I said previously, GWS and West Coast have added (and/or regained, considering injuries last season) more key talent than what they've lost. Not much use in dwelling on the departures of players (like Stephenson, McKinnon, Gooch or Laurie) who aren't ever the difference between wins and losses.
Only been following AFLW for 2 years so still piecing it all together. Agree with that the gun players are the one's that generate wins way more than the AFL. Included Richmond in the top 8 but it's a lottery because so many teams have lost multiple players whereas some teams have improved or held their ground. GWS lost 6 average players so that's a fair bit of depth, but I would have thought WC were decimated losing 8 players - Laurie and Gooch were 3 and 4 in their B + F and Bowen top 10 and a very good player. Kelly sisters are important in winning games because of run and carry.
Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
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For the record Kate Hore has polled just 9 career votes (4 last season), and Schleicher has 8 (6 last season).
Seems like every year an ineligible player is picked, and this year that ineligible player is Ellie McKenzie. If this was done today (or since the weekend), I'm surprised nobody jumped on Abbey Dowrick.
Some reeeeal weird choices there at first glance. Certainly reveals how seriously the captains take the poll... I'd assume Emma Kearney picked Kate Shierlaw, Daisy Pearce went with Shelley Scott, and I can't see how anybody other than Stephanie Cain thought of Mim Strom.
No question about which new team will fare the best, which seems like an oversight.
Who on earth picked SLT to kick the most goals? It's not 2019 anymore.
As a tangent from that (I'm not querying McKenzie's eligibility) - do we know if the cutoff for eligibility is the same as season six? Are we going to get fourth-season players getting nominations? I'm not sure anyone from 2019 is in any danger of winning the award anyway, so probably not a big deal. I'd still be happier if they were properly ruled out - particularly the ones with a bunch of games played.
I can't say I was a big fan of Hanks or Huntington winning the award. Personally, I'd rather have the a games cutoff (5? 6? I'm not set on a number) and allow previously nominated players that are otherwise eligible, as in the men's. It seems weird that a late-season nomination for a first- or second-gamer would disqualify them from a future award, but a nondescript 20-plus gamer could still be eligible.
Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 5, 2011
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Maybe they'll move the date forward by 9 months, so that eligible players have to be under 21 on 1st Sept 2022 (rather than 1st Jan 2022).
But I concluded (around the time it was won by somebody who only played half a season) the problem is not the rules around eligibility. The problem is the award is judged mostly by bozos and dingbats with little appreciation for the concept of merit. If they were competent, Hanks would have got a nomination in her first year anyway (after her second game, to be precise).
They've screwed it up 3 times in a row. Now the award has so little credibility that it kinda makes it fun to guess who'll steal it next time. Contrast that to the AFLPA Best First Year Player Award:
2020: Patrikios
2021: McKenzie
2022: Rowbottom
Pretty clearly holds more weight. But also makes predicting future winners more boring.
I mean - you're not wrong. I'd still love an overhaul of the award, even if they keep getting it wrong. As is, I think we have a few players who are eligible on 20+ games. I feel like the reason they're still eligible is neglect, rather than anybody thinking they actually should be.
Teen Wolf
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 5, 2011
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It would not be shocking if a few of these players, in their 4th campaign, end up having better seasons than all other "eligible" players:
29 games – Mim Strom (November)
28 games – Alana Porter (February)
24 games – Serene Watson (November)
23 games – Dee Heslop (July)
20 games – Sophie Molan (March)
20 games – Molly McDonald (May)
19 games – Daisy D’Arcy (December 2023)
18 games – Sarah Hartwig (April 2023)
17 games – Sarah Sansonetti (August)
17 games – Isabella Shannon (June)
16 games – Gemma Lagioia (May)
15 games – Georgia Garnett (September)
15 games – Brenna Tarrant (November)
15 games – Nicola Xenos (March)
(month in brackets is when each player turn/ed 21 this year)
Probably only gonna get a major rule change if a Strom or Porter type wins it this year.
Even if it winds up as Fleming or Ham or someone like that winning, surely even having a player off the above list get nominated would be a bit embarrassing. I'm just picturing them nominating, in the same week, a 17-year old who's in the middle of exams and a 4th-season player in their 30th game.
I wonder what the odds are that a) they change the rules without telling anyone or b) they arbitrarily choose not to nominate any of the players that don't feel like they should be eligible, without bothering with any kind of rule change. At the very least, less than a week out, I'd have expected some sort of clarity on how the award is going to work, even if it is no change. It doesn't inspire confidence that the people in charge care much.
Connar
Team Captain
1. Melbourne
2. Fremantle
3. Brisbane
4. Adelaide
5. North Melbourne
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Carlton
8. Collingwood
__________________________________
9. Gold Coast
10. Greater Western Sydney
11. Geelong
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. St Kilda
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. Port Adelaide
18. Sydney
2. Fremantle
3. Brisbane
4. Adelaide
5. North Melbourne
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Carlton
8. Collingwood
__________________________________
9. Gold Coast
10. Greater Western Sydney
11. Geelong
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. St Kilda
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. Port Adelaide
18. Sydney
- Jul 1, 2013
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1. Adelaide
2. Brisbane
3. North Melbourne
4. Melbourne
5. Collingwood
6. WB
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
9. Essendon
10. GWS
11. Port Adelaide
12. Geelong
13. Richmond
14. St Kilda
15. WC
16. GC
17. Sydney
18. Hawthorn
Worried about us taking a tumble.
Adelaide to be hungry.
2. Brisbane
3. North Melbourne
4. Melbourne
5. Collingwood
6. WB
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
9. Essendon
10. GWS
11. Port Adelaide
12. Geelong
13. Richmond
14. St Kilda
15. WC
16. GC
17. Sydney
18. Hawthorn
Worried about us taking a tumble.
Adelaide to be hungry.
