AFLW Preliminary Finals - 2023 AFLW season

[Teen Wolf]

Saturday, 25 November
Brisbane v Geelong
6.45pm AEST, Brighton Homes Arena
Seven (VIC) 7mate (SA, WA, NSW, QLD)

Sunday, 26 November
North Melb. v Adelaide
3.05pm AEDT, Ikon Park
7mate (VIC, SA, WA), 7two (NSW, QLD)

 

[Teen Wolf]

The tired v fresh bodies argument (where the team coming into the prelim with the week off is yet to lose) is compelling, not just based on results but also with how lacklustre past PFs have often been for long stretches.

So that'll be the guiding factor in my tips this week, but note that no team has made it to the PFs via the semi-final twice... until Adelaide this year. Perhaps the Crows gained some valuable experience last year in preparing for a team coming off a week's rest.

While this finals series has produced some notable upsets so far, it's not like Essendon beat Geelong, nor Sydney beat Adelaide. Therefore the Cats knocking off the Lions would be taking things to another level.

Looks like the conditions for the game in Brisbane will be fine if not perfect, but the game in Melbourne could be a little greasy. Tough to figure out a reasonable crowd expectation, aim is probably 5k in both instances--only need 2k through the gates this weekend to surpass last season's entire total.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Looks like the conditions for the game in Brisbane will be fine if not perfect.

Depending if the current forecast holds (always uncertain at this time of year) it could be quite humid around game time - somewhere around 70-80% humidity. Ball can get pretty greasy.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Forecast for Sunday seems to be getting slightly wetter.

Scheer getting the all clear for Saturday night would be a bit crazy. Less than two weeks for a broken collarbone? I understand the push, she kicked 3 the last time the two teams met (in a 3.9.27 - 4.1.25 scoreline), but that's risky stuff. Featherstone had 3 handballs and 0 tackles last week, so that'll definitely tempt a roll of the dice from Geelong.

 

[Cdog71]

Forecast for Sunday seems to be getting slightly wetter.

Scheer getting the all clear for Saturday night would be a bit crazy. Less than two weeks for a broken collarbone? I understand the push, she kicked 3 the last time the two teams met (in a 3.9.27 - 4.1.25 scoreline), but that's risky stuff. Featherstone had 3 handballs and 0 tackles last week, so that'll definitely tempt a roll of the dice from Geelong.

Would be high risk, the potential to go from a hair line fracture to worse.

Might be a bit of smoke and shadows…


Having said that, I don’t know that Bris will get as pushed around at stoppages like Melb have been last two weeks and they will need to generate 15 shots at goal again I reckon not sure Bris will fall in a heap like Melb did when things aren’t going their way.
Credit to Melb though played one decent quarter in two weeks and nearly fell into a prelim.
I think your right about Pearce being a massive influence on the ground when things are going sideways but also and I think and more importantly the rotations and longer quarters have made it harder for teams like Melb to push back behind the ball like they’ve done last couple of years, that was their “got to” when they get 15 points up….makes for an ordinary GF.

Cdog Kiss of Death
Scheer doesn’t play, D Davidson to kick 1.4 and Cats get home by a kick only to get thumped by the Roos.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Confident Brisbane wins but not sure what Adelaide shows up.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Scheer named to play, ooohhh... The thinking will be "if Chloe gets injured in the first 5 minutes, we'll be no worse off than if Featherston were to play the entire game", as harsh as that sounds.

Classic dilemma though--if Geelong do win but she gets injured again (and even worse than last time), then she'd miss the grand final etc etc.

 

[cmndstab]

Scheer named to play, ooohhh... The thinking will be "if Chloe gets injured in the first 5 minutes, we'll be no worse off than if Featherston were to play the entire game", as harsh as that sounds.

Classic dilemma though--if Geelong do win but she gets injured again (and even worse than last time), then she'd miss the grand final etc etc.

Wouldn't be the first time Scheer has made a significant contribution in a big final despite missing more than half the match with injury...

 

[GC2015]

Confident Brisbane wins but not sure what Adelaide shows up.

To be fair, Adelaide could have easily won that qualifying final against Brisbane so it's not as if they're in horrible form or anything.

Tipping Brisbane and Adelaide to win. The biggest rivalry in the AFLW should get another GF rematch.

 

[The Nostradamus]

It’s Flagroos season

Stars have aligned for us not to have travelled since a month ago in round 9

Momentum high now to keep it going 2 more weeks at home

 

[Teen Wolf]

Chances of rain during tomorrow's game seem to have dropped quite a bit. Reportedly wet in and around Brisbane atm, but it's also forecast to clear up for tonight's match.

Some extra incentive for a few players, who already have boring premiership medals etc, to write themselves into the books:

With the Crows having to play the SF, it was brought up somewhere that Ebony Marinoff is now the sole games record holder. If Brisbane win tonight and Adelaide lose tomorrow, Ally Anderson will catch back up next week. Whereas if the results go the other way, nice 2-game buffer for Marinoff heading into 2024. Could determine the outcome of the race to 100, which will climax midway through the 2025 season.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Yeah bit slippery, but in terms of spectator conditions, where else would you rather be on a Saturday evening in November!

 

[TheEscapeClub]

I wouldn't have minded a decent replay of that first goal.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Basically this is set up now as Brisbane's do-over opportunity of the Collingwood game, where they started in the same fashion as tonight before blowing goal after goal from Q2 onwards.

Adel/NM are a better matchup for the Cats imo, so I don't see them clawing their way to a win from here unless BL open the door in the same way they did for the Pies.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Brisbane in harder that first quarter

 

[Teen Wolf]

Hickie being a hopeless coatrack in the ruck, giving away easy goals in a PF, familiar feeling.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Conway slow and then undisciplined on the wing to give away the free and 50, signs of textbook Bad Brisbane emerging. What a great response there though, could single out quite a few moments in that fast goal reply but it'd have to be Mullins to get first billing.

 

[OniAu]

Tom Rockcliff ate all the donuts

 

[Teen Wolf]

Jeepers, whiplash from the momentum swings there!

Many reasons I hate Scheer starting too close to goal, one of which was demonstrated that quarter--the Chlo-Zone is 50m out, don't waste that long leg (especially when Parry is a pretty bad kick--keep her playing from the goalsquare more often).

 

[Cdog71]

Jeepers, whiplash from the momentum swings there!

Many reasons I hate Scheer starting too close to goal, one of which was demonstrated that quarter--the Chlo-Zone is 50m out, don't waste that long leg (especially when Parry is a pretty bad kick--keep her playing from the goalsquare more often).

Yeah, she’s got a weird kick. Hope Scheer makes it thru she looks up for it.
Still think the Cats believe they can do it scored nearly every time they went in the 50

 

[Teen Wolf]

I'm reasonably confident Brisbane have been ****ing around for most of the match, aside from a couple exceptions like Dawes. No idea if they're going to find out the full consequences of that... I reckon half of them still can't process it's a prelim because of the white jumpers out there.

Hodder at the end of Q3 was a good example, lollygagging and letting the oppo waltz out of D50.

 

[Cdog71]

Throw Hickie fwd

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Strange match

 

[CrowToon]

What the hell was that last 2 mins of umpiring. Counted no less than 6 frees that weren't given to the Cats. And then the one they did get at the death a Brisbane player is just allowed to boot it away in celebration? Are the rules different in AFLW are they not allowed to attempt the unlikely albeit closer due to the infringement? Strange but none of them seem to be complaining I guess.

 

[cmndstab]

Apparently the umpires decided to take the last ten minutes of that match off. Several blatant free kicks just straight-up ignored.