- Jul 23, 2015
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Brighton, Las Vegas Bears
Every season, we see clubs surge to the very top and dip to the very bottom. We see claims of greatness, and calls for folding. Usually a subjective task, I have decided to attempt to quantify the strength of the league's 12 clubs and determine a ranking system based on both playing and posting.
How does it work?
I will be using a popular rating system known as Elo, most notably used in chess, tennis and association football. Elo primarily takes into account the strength of two opponents, and the margin of victory, rather than any universal points system for winning a match. The Demons flogging the Royals, for example, would not impact either club's Elo very much, but if the Dragons knocked off the Bears it would have a decent impact on the rating. Elo ratings typically start at 1500, with higher scores indicating a stronger team.
I won't reveal the formula I am using, but the playing side of the ratings will obviously work off the result of the game and the winning margin. There is also a small element of home ground advantage in the sim, and so this is taken into account in the formula as well. For the posting side of things, I have decided that the number of posters is a far better indication of posting strength than pure numbers. The 'margin' in this case is the difference between the number of posters, albeit adjusted to have similar values to playing margins. There is no reward for higher posting numbers however I have penalised excessively low numbers.
I will be determining separate Elo ratings for both playing and posting stats and combining the two to determine the overall Power Rankings. Playing and posting will have equal weight, despite the usual emphasis on posting. At the end of the day, we are here to play in a fantasy football league, and I wanted the rankings to reflect that.
How will it be released?
The rankings will be released over the next 4 nights, with 3 clubs each night. I will reveal the club's Elo rating for playing and posting, and provide an insight into how they have fluctuated across the season. At the end of each round, I will re-update the rankings in a single post and hopefully continue it into next season as well, as the data input is relatively simple.
Hope you all enjoy.