Quicky's list draft and trade talk thread 2011

[Quicky]

I tossed up whether or not to start this thread again this year. When I first began it there wasn’t really a comprehensive thread regarding our list management and draft and trade prospects. Now they seem to be everywhere. I decided to continue on this year because in the end I have enjoyed writing them and hope that you get something out of them too. So please excuse the thread proliferation. For those who haven’t seen the original threads you can find the links below:

Quickys list draft and trade talk thread (2009):
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=620419

Quickys 2nd Annual list draft and trade talk thread (2010):
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=735691

Last year our club made the bold declaration that we would win a premiership within three years. It took us just one. We backed ourselves in the 2009 trade period with the canny recruitment of Ball and Jolly to help fill the two most glaring list deficiencies at the time. History tells us that this recruiting coup was a masterstroke and while our premiership success was built on a solid foundation of recruitment, player development, sports science and coaching these final puzzle pieces undoubtedly played a critical part.

The next challenge for this list is to become the first Collingwood side since The Machine in 1935-36 to win back to back premierships. Not to rest on our laurels we made the somewhat unexpected decision to take the axe to a premiership delivering list. We made an unprecedented 12 list changes including the loss of experienced players such as O’Bree, Lockyer, Fraser, Medhurst, Anthony and Cook. While it was a massive gamble to get rid of so much experience and depth it was a really proactive approach to our list management.

We backed this up with the recruitment of Chris Tarrant, Andrew Krakouer and developing ruckman Jonathon Ceglar for bargain basement prices. In addition to this we added a swathe of kids with a focus on smalls in the National Draft and talls in the Rookie Draft. It is hoped that we find one or two gems through sheer weight of picks in what was widely considered a weak draft. So far we have seen positive signs from Fasolo (gun), Seedsman, Bolton, Ugle and Ceglar.

This strategy is high risk but I fully back the clubs decision to go down this path. We are in a recruiting environment right now where the Gold Coast and GWS have been handed the best from the drafts and if we are to replenish our list we need to be proactive. If we were to be conservative in our approach to list management there would have been the very real risk that we would have a generational gap in three to five years time due to an inability to draft quality players. Whether this approach will pay off only time will tell but we won’t die wondering.

You would have thought this would make our list vulnerable to injuries but we have dealt with our fair share this year and so far the only result has been the opportunity to blood promising (and opportunity starved) younger players. Fasolo, Rounds, Keeffe, McCarthy, Sinclair and Young all got a taste of AFL level footy which can only be a positive thing looking to the future.

With all this considered let’s take a look at our list.

 

[Quicky]

Overview:

It’s hard to argue with a list that has won last year’s premiership and followed it up with the best home and away season in the clubs history. I had the feeling going into the season that we would be vulnerable to injuries, suspension and form purely because I didn’t see the same depth in the list this year compared to last. As it turns out this feeling was misgiven. We have copped it from every angle this season and come out of it minor premiers and smelling like roses. We are strong in every position on the ground with only a few concerns. Let’s get stuck in.

Back Line:

Our backline is the cornerstone of this team. It is strong in every area and has fantastic depth. We lost a key position stalwart in Presti from last year but covered him seamlessly this year with the acquisition of Tarrant. When Brown went down with a season ending knee injury in preseason we had a readymade replacement for him. Preseason speculation was how we were going to fit all of Brown Reid and Tarrant in the same 22. It will be interesting to see how this is handled next season. In addition to this Keeffe has shown very promising signs as a KPD at VFL level and has not looked out of place in this position when used there (albeit sparingly) at AFL level. Hartley has played VFL this season as a NSW scholarship holder and looks certain to be rookie listed this season. He has shown positive signs on the half back flank but long term has the physical attributes to develop into a key position player with his agility, height and speed.

Our small and medium defenders have excellent versatility and great depth. We all know what Maxwell, O’Brien, Shaw and Toovey are capable of. But when this core group struggled with a combination of form, fitness, injuries and suspension it was really pleasing to see the next teir step up. The switch of Davis into defense has been a masterstroke by Malthouse and he seems a cert for AA this season. Between him, Shaw, O’Brien and Reid it is really difficult to shut down the run off our backline. Buckley, Goldsack, Rounds and Young have all also been used in defense with some success. There is genuine competition for places in defense.

Draft/Trade Needs:

None. We have all bases covered. In fact such is the depth in our defense it would not surprise me to see us lose players this season who are looking for greener pastures. Goldsack, Buckley and Rounds among those that may want greater opportunities elsewhere. There would also have to be some doubt that rookie listed players Gordon and Perham will retain their list positions. There has also been speculation that Davis may head back to Western Australia. If we were to lose both Davis and Rounds we may look for someone who can play as a shut down small defender and give us some drive going the other way. Or we might just trial Young and Seedsman back there. We’re going alright!!

Midfield:

We have an intimidating midfield. It is strong at the top end with genuine stars in Pendlebury, Swan, Thomas and Ball. It has a great support caste in Wellingham, Beams, Rusty, Didak, Johnson and Blair who rotate through. I think our midfield runs deeper than any other in the competition and we almost inevitably find more winners in their positions because of this. These guys for the most part have really well balanced games and can play inside and out which is really important. It is a credit to our development staff that we have such well rounded players. We also have some promising players coming through the VFL side. McCarthy, Thomas, Bolton, Fasolo and Seedsman all appear to have strong AFL qualities. Bolton and Thomas appear to have good inside games while Seedsman and Fasolo provide depth on the outside

Draft/Trade Needs:

The midfield is in a similar position to the defense in that it has such strong depth that it would not surprise to see players move on in search of better opportunities elsewhere. McCarthy is reaching a sensitive period for his career and might find it better to move on now. I don’t think he is going to win a position in the midfield anytime soon and has not shown the flexibility to play effectively in other positions. He has a lot to offer as a player but I question whether that is at Collingwood. He also has pressure coming from below him in Fasolo and Sinclair who have tasted midfield minutes at AFL this year and Thomas who showed his quality late in the VFL season after being dogged by injuries all year. All we lack really is experience in our depth but that will come with time. That said you can never have too much quality in the midfield and I think we may see a best available approach applied.

Forward line:

At full strength our forward line is a very strong unit. Cloke is the best contested mark in the competition, one of the hardest running big men in the game and has finally sorted out his kicking. With Dawes we have a more than handy one-two combination. But Dawes has been well below his best this season largely as a result of injury. We terribly lack back up for these two. If Cloke were to get injured I think our forward structure would dissolve. We can handle the loss of Dawes but not Cloke. I think Anthony’s surprise last minute defection to Fremantle last season really threw a wildcard into our list management last season which left us in a situation where we lacked depth in this position. Reilly and Perham have both shown very little and I don’t think will be on our list next season.

Our medium and small forwards are in a much healthier situation. We have really strong group of small forwards who can rotate through midfield while being very dangerous around goals. Beams has been in fantastic form and is one of the most dangerous players in the league in the attacking half with his field kicking and goal assists. Krakouer and Rusty read the ball so well and genuinely dangerous when the ball hits the deck. Fasolo can kick a goal anywhere from 65 out. And I haven’t even mentioned Didak who has been a bit of a non issue with form and injuries this season.

All that said I think we are badly lacking pace in the forward 50 and our press has suffered as a result. Blair has been playing a lone role up there as a tackling machine. Davis move to defence, Macaffer’s absence, and Dick’s knee have all hurt us in this area. Ugle is an option for this role and I think this may be a good way for Rounds to crack into the 22 but it is an issue that must be addressed.

Draft/Trade Needs:

There is a desperate need to draft a key position forward. I would not be surprised to see us target a mature big forward this offseason considering Browns retirement. If Cloke or Dawes goes down we could struggle here. I think we should also target a developing key forward for the future as Reilly and Perham are speculative options at best.

I suspect the club will also be looking at forwards with pace who are good overhead. Macaffer’s absence was sorely felt this season and too much pressure was put on Cloke and Dawes to be targets this season, and Blair to provide forward pressure.

Ruck:

There has been a lot of debate regarding our ruck department this season. Some see it as a real concern but I think we are in a reasonable position. Jolly is only 29 and should have several more seasons left in him. There is a suggestion he is carrying a degenerative knee injury but I haven’t seen this backed up with anything more than here-say so far. Wood is a handy immediate back up and is coming into the right age group where many ruckman begin to establish themselves.

We also have two very promising developing ruckmen in Ceglar and Witts who will be drafted as a NSW scholarship holder this season. Many believe Ceglar is a long way off senior football but having watched him in the VFL this season I disagree. He still has a way to go honing his ruck technique, although he is not bad by any means, but importantly he also presents really well as a forward option. Witts development has been rapid although my suspicion is he is at least a year away from pushing for a senior game.

I think this could be McNamara’s last year on the list simply because there is such competition for positions. Some may argue four ruckman are not enough but at a pinch Keeffe can be used and I don’t think you should be dedicating any more list positions than that to the ruck. Also given what we have invested in terms of picks (three first rounders since 2007) I don’t think throwing any more picks away on this position is prudent given we are in a compromised draft year.

It is Browns retirement that creates a conundrum for the ruck department. Jolly and Wood both play at their best as number one rucks and arguably don’t have the versatility to play extended minutes as forwards. Who we pair Jolly with is the big question?

Draft/Trade Needs
There is a school of thought that we should look to add a second ruck that compliments Jolly. I don't think this is neccesary. Jolly is one of the best rucks in the league, Wood is more than serviceable backup and we have two promising developing rucks in Ceglar and Witts. We can use Keeffe at a pinch if needed. I think if we were to recruit a ruckman we would be paying overs to do so and that there are more pressing needs on the list.

Draft Strategy:

It is a credit to everyone at the club how strong our list currently is. We have made some very bold moves over the last five years on the draft and trade tables and it sees our list in incredibly strong shape. The biggest concern has to be the depth of our KP stocks and this must be addressed this season. We could also look to add pace and marking ability in our forward line this trade and draft period.

I think our strategy will go one of two ways this season. We will either load up heavily on key position forwards similar to our 2006 draft year. Or we will go best available and take our chances. We don’t have the privilege of the quality picks we had in 2006 so my feeling is we will go best available. We may be able to exploit the current rookie rules which allows us to bring in 2 mature age rookies (over 23 years of age) to provide some depth in the key position area if this is the case. Although we have been reluctant to target mature agers from state leagues in the past.

 

[Quicky]

Draft Rules:
If you are interested in having a look at the draft rules you can find them in the link below.
http://www.aflpa.com.au/images/uploads/AFL_Player_Rules_-_February_2011.pdf

The Crystal Ball:
(Hypothetical List Management Scenario)

The following is a hypothetical of how we may approach our list management this year. I’ve taken into consideration the strength of our list, the performance of our players and our draft and trade needs. This included orchestrating enough picks to give us a strong position in the draft.

The competition for list spots at Collingwood is fierce. Whichever way the dice rolls there is going to be some unlucky players. I think Brad Dick is a strong chance to be delisted given his injury history. It would be devastating to delist such an energetic and likeable clubman. But the reality of our list may see the tough call made. I am hoping we give him another go as a rookie listed player if this is the case as we do lack tackling intensity and speed up forward this year and it would be good to keep such a good character at the club.

Trent Stubbs has not shown enough to retain his position and is in real trouble. There also has to be conjecture over Farmers spot although I think he is worth persisting with going off his performance in the tail end of the season.

I would be very surprised also if we didn’t see some players move for greater opportunities. My feeling is McCarthy, Rounds, Goldsack and Macaffer may be assessing their futures. McCarthy in particular has a real fight to crack this side and I think may be gone. I really hope we retain Macaffer as I think he offers our forward line something we have desperately lacked this season in another marking target and strong tackler.

What direction we go with the rookie list will be interesting. I think the club will be much less patient with our rookie listed players this year as we only have one more year where we are allowed to have 8 rookies as opposed to the standard 6. This was a rule brought in to help mitigate the effect of the compromised drafts. We also need to create room for Caolan Mooney who we have committed to drafting. Jarrod Witts and Michael Hartley can both be included as one of three NSW scholarship players that fall outside the rookie list. Scott Reed and Jack Perham are almost certain to be delisted and Reilly and McNamara will also feel the squeeze on positions.

This is how I see it panning out:

Delistings: Brad Dick (re-rookie), Trent Stubbs, Shae McNamara, Jack Perham, Scott Reed, Declan Reilly
Possible - Daniel Farmer, Thomas Gordon

Retirements: Leigh Brown, Tom Hunter
Possible - Leon Davis

Trades: John McCarthy,
Possible - Luke Rounds, Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer

Rookie Listed: Brad Dick, Caolan Mooney, Jarrod Witts, Michael Hartley

This leaves us with four live picks in the draft and three live picks in the rookie draft (see below).

Senior List:
1 - Luke Ball
2 - Dayne Beams
3 - Jarryd Blair
4 - Nathan Brown
5 - Simon Buckley
6 - Jonathon Ceglar
7 - Travis Cloke
8 - Leon Davis
9 - Chris Dawes
10 - Alan Didak
11 - Daniel Farmer
12 - Alex Fasolo
13 - Tyson Goldsack
14 - Ben Johnson
15 - Darren Jolly
16 - Lachlan Keeffe
17 - Andrew Krakouer
18 - Brent Macaffer
19 - Nick Maxwell
20 - Harry O'Brien
21 - Scott Pendlebury
22 - Ben Reid
23 - Luke Rounds
24 - Paul Seedsman
25 - Heath Shaw
26 - Steele Sideobottom
27 - Ben Sinclair
28 - Dane Swan
29 - Chris Tarrant
30 - Dale Thomas
31 - Josh Thomas
32 - Alan Toovey
33 - Kirk Ugle
34 - Sharrod Wellingham
35 - Cameron Wood
36 - Tom Young
37 -
38 -
39 -
40 -

Rookie List:
1 - Jye Bolton
2 - Paul Cribbin
3 - Brad Dick
4 - Tom Gordon
5 - Caolan Mooney
6 -
7 -
8 -
-> Michael Hartley (NSW rookie outside the list)
-> Jarrod Witts (NSW rookie outside the list)

 

[Quicky]

Blow-By-Blow:
(Updates from Trade & Draft Week)

<<To be updated during trade and draft week>>


OUT -

Retired: Leigh Brown, Tom Hunter
Delisted:
Traded: Pick 25
Drafted:

IN -

Traded: Marty Clarke, Jamie Elliott, Pick 67
Drafted:

 

[SchuPie]

I think list management also revolves around the notion of whether Bucks sees the current field structures / press as the way that football will continue be played in 2012 and beyond – does he have his own distinct game plan that may involve an evolution of the game and the way we recruit / trade?

Quicky, wanted your feedback on a scenario – not necessarily what I believe in but an option to what we are doing.
Say Bucks looks at the list and thinks that perhaps the next 2 years might be a chance to “reload” and stock up with high-end talent to again build up others around – to get the jump on everyone (apart from GWS / Gold Coast) by bringing in potentially draft top 5 elite players

- Organise a trade for Jaeger O’Meara
I don’t know who, I don’t think any or all of
McCarthy/Rounds/Caff/Goldie would get it done
- Trade a top end player at the end of 2012 to GWS for 2 first round
picks in that draft

It may mean one to two years of having a list that could win a premiership but rather than be a red hot contender, be one that needs all to go right to win – then (around 2013/14) becoming a list that is incredibly strong while all the others are still feeling the pain of compromised drafts.


I find list management an intriguing science and can’t wait to see how we play it over the next year or two.

 

[TradeDraft]

This is how I see it panning out:

Delistings: Brad Dick (re-rookie), Trent Stubbs, Shae McNamara, Jack Perham, Scott Reed, Declan Reilly
Possible - Daniel Farmer, Thomas Gordon

Retirements: Leigh Brown, Tom Hunter
Possible - Leon Davis

Trades: John McCarthy,
Possible - Luke Rounds, Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer

Rookie Listed: Brad Dick, Caolan Mooney, Jarrod Witts, Michael Hartley

I would think if we De-Listed Brad Dick - I can't really see us Re-Rooking him but I could be very much Wrong.

Reckon they will give Stubbs 1 more season

 

[Quicky]

I think list management also revolves around the notion of whether Bucks sees the current field structures / press as the way that football will continue be played in 2012 and beyond – does he have his own distinct game plan that may involve an evolution of the game and the way we recruit / trade?

Quicky, wanted your feedback on a scenario – not necessarily what I believe in but an option to what we are doing.
Say Bucks looks at the list and thinks that perhaps the next 2 years might be a chance to “reload” and stock up with high-end talent to again build up others around – to get the jump on everyone (apart from GWS / Gold Coast) by bringing in potentially draft top 5 elite players

- Organise a trade for Jaeger O’Meara
I don’t know who, I don’t think any or all of
McCarthy/Rounds/Caff/Goldie would get it done
- Trade a top end player at the end of 2012 to GWS for 2 first round
picks in that draft

It may mean one to two years of having a list that could win a premiership but rather than be a red hot contender, be one that needs all to go right to win – then (around 2013/14) becoming a list that is incredibly strong while all the others are still feeling the pain of compromised drafts.


I find list management an intriguing science and can’t wait to see how we play it over the next year or two.

It's an interesting thought and certainly a valid one.

My feeling is that the club has already gone out on a limb to cut so heavily into it's depth at a time we are competing for a premiership.

To get a deal like that done we would need to get rid or a key player from our 22 in a time we are every chance to win premierships.

I think we would need to lose a player of Swans calibre. I throw up Swan as an option due to his age. It's a toss up between the future and the present.

Premierships are so rare I think it is important to put their value into perspective. They are invaluable. I wouldn't want to compromise our chance of a premiership in the immediate term for the hope of future glory.

That ultimately is a challenge for our recruitment and development staff in the future.


PS. You bring up Buckley and how this will affect our recruitment. I didn't go into it much as I had already written heaps and was trying to make it as easy to read as possible. But the affect Bucks has on list management may be significant. If Malthouse was still in charge I would say McCarthy and Sinclair were certs to stay. Now I'm not so sure. Rounds I think is a greater chance to stay. I think application and footskills will be the theme of recruits under Bucks.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Very good analysis Quicky.

Just on Jye Bolton. Has he done enough to get promoted to the senior list? I think so.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Re this scenario - I think we would be doing everything possible to extend our window right now, rather than starting to build for the next one.

The timing of our window is such that there isn't yet another super-team on the rise, and the previous super-team (Geelong) are on the decline, so the timing couldn't be better. Bucks should try to milk another 1-2 premierships out of this group (from next year) and worry about the future at some latter point. You can't reall go both ways - you either need to commit to current group, or start building the next team of contenders.

 

[Quicky]

Very good analysis Quicky.

Just on Jye Bolton. Has he done enough to get promoted to the senior list? I think so.

I think so. I actually had him as a candidate in the original draft. My feeling is that we will trade more than one player this season. I've listed McCarthy but I think one more is likely. And if we do Bolton will be promoted.

 

[Quicky]

Re this scenario - I think we would be doing everything possible to extend our window right now, rather than starting to build for the next one.

The timing of our window is such that there isn't yet another super-team on the rise, and the previous super-team (Geelong) are on the decline, so the timing couldn't be better. Bucks should try to milk another 1-2 premierships out of this group (from next year) and worry about the future at some latter point. You can't reall go both ways - you either need to commit to current group, or start building the next team of contenders.

I disagree. In a way we already have by cutting so deeply into the list. But I wouldn't want to go much further than this while we are challenging. We have maintained the core of our list while being really shrewd in replenishing it.

 

[blaze036]

Witts could easily become our 3rd preffered ruckmen, or 2nd preffered (if jollys knee goes) and we fail to pick up somone in a trade or mature age rec. That being the case, and his very strong performances in the VFL wouldn't the best idea to put him on the senior list? Assuming we lost Mcarthy and maybe somone else and the draft is pretty weak there should be room, right?

 

[TradeDraft]

Has anyone Heard more about the Possibly for us to get Danyle Pearce?

 

[SchuPie]

PS. You bring up Buckley and how this will affect our recruitment. I didn't go into it much as I had already written heaps and was trying to make it as easy to read as possible. But the affect Bucks has on list management may be significant. If Malthouse was still in charge I would say McCarthy and Sinclair were certs to stay. Now I'm not so sure. Rounds I think is a greater chance to stay. I think application and footskills will be the theme of recruits under Bucks.

Yeah - this will make it interesting.
We may see talented players cut from the Melbourne/ Freo/ Adelaide/ Bulldogs/ Saints' lists because the incoming coaches may have their own ideas on a particular game-style that these players don't fit with.
As such, you never know, there may be a few surprises when we finalise our list.

By the way, sorry i didn't say in previous post, excellent write up, Quicky. Great read.

 

[Knightmare]

Been looking forward to this for some time.

Always enjoying a different perspective. Really good read as always Quicky.

Some minor things I'd like to get your views on.

Firstly with Leon Davis as a possibly retirement this year and Ben Johnson also nearing the end. We really lack the top quality smaller defenders (around that 180cm height). Luke Rounds I personally don't regard as AFL quality then all we really have is Heath Shaw.

At our draft selection two players I consider to be the better value and more appealing options are Luke Brown (who GWS might get through prelist but we can trade for) - if in main draft could get at 25. Also Brandon Ellis who has been a standout at TAC Cup level all season would be the two I'd look at as potential replacements.

Would you rather we target a KPP at 25ish or would you be open to potentially looking at a Leon+Johnson replacement at 25? Or just best available?


Also ruckman is the other question. Since you are not keen to trade into a ruckman - would you consider drafting another ruckman through either the main draft or rookie draft? (Tom Downie might be one I'd look at in the main draft - 205cm from b-ball background or 204cm, 119kg Mitch Brewer who is that year older and like Witts is from a rugby background).
Geelong during their period of dominance did a great job of stocking up on ruckman. Would you be keen to do similar?
How they have managed to play them all is through playing them as KPPs while also giving them some ruck minutes. Would you consider doing the same - working that positional flexibility into their games or just stick with what we have and leave our ruck stocks as is with Witts our only ruck addition?

 

[Quicky]

Witts could easily become our 3rd preffered ruckmen, or 2nd preffered (if jollys knee goes) and we fail to pick up somone in a trade or mature age rec. That being the case, and his very strong performances in the VFL wouldn't the best idea to put him on the senior list? Assuming we lost Mcarthy and maybe somone else and the draft is pretty weak there should be room, right?

If Jolly suffered a long term injury we could include Witts onto the list as a long term injury replacement. No need to jump the gun on this one.

 

[smallfooty]

Draft Rules:


Delistings: Brad Dick (re-rookie), Trent Stubbs, Shae McNamara, Jack Perham, Scott Reed, Declan Reilly
Possible - Daniel Farmer, Thomas Gordon

Retirements: Leigh Brown, Tom Hunter
Possible - Leon Davis

Trades: John McCarthy,
Possible - Luke Rounds, Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer

Rookie Listed: Brad Dick, Caolan Mooney, Jarrod Witts, Michael Hartley

This leaves us with four live picks in the draft and three live picks in the rookie draft

Brad Dick, Trent Stubbs and Leigh Brown are the only players on the senior list from those that you state should be cut or retired. That would leave us with only 3 picks. Shae, Perham, Reid, Reilly, Gordon and hunter are all on the rookie list. So sure, we can cut them but it wont open up a fourth spot on the senior list.
I cant see us cutting either Stubbs or Farmer after one year. The club has shown that it is prepared to do that in the past but the 50k that they are contracted to make in 2012 would have to be paid out and contributed to the salary cap payments. Generally its only done if the kid doesnt wanna put in the work required to develop as a AFL footballer.
Each club is required to take 3 picks in the draft and i doubt we will have many more than the minimum requirement. I think we might try to trade two players for one pick. Who those players are will depend on what sort of pick we want (maybe we have our eye on a certain draftee) but i anticipate it will be two of either Jmac, Buckley Dick, Macaffer or Goldsack. Ideally we'd keep Caf and Sack but you cant expect clubs to offer us much unless we are prepared to let some quality go.

 

[Quicky]

Draft Rules:


Delistings: Brad Dick (re-rookie), Trent Stubbs, Shae McNamara, Jack Perham, Scott Reed, Declan Reilly
Possible - Daniel Farmer, Thomas Gordon

Retirements: Leigh Brown, Tom Hunter
Possible - Leon Davis

Trades: John McCarthy,
Possible - Luke Rounds, Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer

Rookie Listed: Brad Dick, Caolan Mooney, Jarrod Witts, Michael Hartley

This leaves us with four live picks in the draft and three live picks in the rookie draft

Brad Dick, Trent Stubbs and Leigh Brown are the only players on the senior list from those that you state should be cut or retired. That would leave us with only 3 picks. Shae, Perham, Reid, Reilly, Gordon and hunter are all on the rookie list. So sure, we can cut them but it wont open up a fourth spot on the senior list.
I cant see us cutting either Stubbs or Farmer after one year. The club has shown that it is prepared to do that in the past but the 50k that they are contracted to make in 2012 would have to be paid out and contributed to the salary cap payments. Generally its only done if the kid doesnt wanna put in the work required to develop as a AFL footballer.
Each club is required to take 3 picks in the draft and i doubt we will have many more than the minimum requirement. I think we might try to trade two players for one pick. Who those players are will depend on what sort of pick we want (maybe we have our eye on a certain draftee) but i anticipate it will be two of either Jmac, Buckley Dick, Macaffer or Goldsack. Ideally we'd keep Caf and Sack but you cant expect clubs to offer us much unless we are prepared to let some quality go.

I also suggested McCarthy would be traded making four spots available (and possibly others) on the senior list.

I would have agreed with you suggesting us cutting players after one season but it is such a tight situation for list position tough calls must be made.

Under the scenario I suggested we would have to pay out Stubbs for another year of his contract but no-one else. We may keep him considering his injury issues and who else we may need to trade from the senior list.

If you can make alternative suggestions I would love to hear a different opinion.

 

[Quicky]

Been looking forward to this for some time.

Always enjoying a different perspective. Really good read as always Quicky.

Some minor things I'd like to get your views on.

Firstly with Leon Davis as a possibly retirement this year and Ben Johnson also nearing the end. We really lack the top quality smaller defenders (around that 180cm height). Luke Rounds I personally don't regard as AFL quality then all we really have is Heath Shaw.

At our draft selection two players I consider to be the better value and more appealing options are Luke Brown (who GWS might get through prelist but we can trade for) - if in main draft could get at 25. Also Brandon Ellis who has been a standout at TAC Cup level all season would be the two I'd look at as potential replacements.

Would you rather we target a KPP at 25ish or would you be open to potentially looking at a Leon+Johnson replacement at 25? Or just best available?


Also ruckman is the other question. Since you are not keen to trade into a ruckman - would you consider drafting another ruckman through either the main draft or rookie draft? (Tom Downie might be one I'd look at in the main draft - 205cm from b-ball background or 204cm, 119kg Mitch Brewer who is that year older and like Witts is from a rugby background).
Geelong during their period of dominance did a great job of stocking up on ruckman. Would you be keen to do similar?
How they have managed to play them all is through playing them as KPPs while also giving them some ruck minutes. Would you consider doing the same - working that positional flexibility into their games or just stick with what we have and leave our ruck stocks as is with Witts our only ruck addition?

In regards to small defenders I think we are alright. All of Shaw, Toovey and O'Brien are more than capable in this position. Davis is a gun and is more of a bonus in defense than anything. I suspect we will keep him but we could cover his loss.

I see Johnson as a linking midfielder and not a small defender so don't count him in the equation as a small defender. Rounds I disagree on his senior prospects, I think he is quality, but he has to be in some conjecture for leaving.

Buckley and Goldsack have both played solid roles as defenders this year. Sinclair could also play a role. I don't see it as a draft need at all, certainly not a position we should target.

My preference would be to target a KPF at 25 or best available. Definitely not a defender. I'm not sure on the particulars of the draft this year, I haven't had the time to follow it closely, so can't suggest anything more specific.

Someone like Gunston or Eddy (rookie option only) from the recyleables might be a go. Not sure about the KPF draft prospects? You could throw some ideas out there I'm sure.

 

[Zahki]

Good read Quicky, you put a lot of effort into this and it shows each year.

I think the delistings will be quite tough, unless another veteran retires with Brown, but I think they'll all go around another year, especially if we win another flag. Been thinking about it since Knightmare first put up his thread and it hasn't become any easier to pick who will be leaving, I think largely because of the unusually large cull that occured last year. If we kept 1 or 2 of the players who were cut last year then they'd be the obvious departures this year, but since they all left together it leaves an awkward situation where the list is almost entirely comprised of best 22 players, required fringe/depth players and untried players like Thomas, Stubbs and Farmer who would each be extremely stiff to be delisted without even getting a game.

We need to make 3 changes to the senior list correct? Meaning even if Shae Mac leaves that doesn't count towards the required amount?

 

[Quicky]

Good read Quicky, you put a lot of effort into this and it shows each year.

I think the delistings will be quite tough, unless another veteran retires with Brown, but I think they'll all go around another year, especially if we win another flag. Been thinking about it since Knightmare first put up his thread and it hasn't become any easier to pick who will be leaving, I think largely because of the unusually large cull that occured last year. If we kept 1 or 2 of the players who were cut last year then they'd be the obvious departures this year, but since they all left together it leaves an awkward situation where the list is almost entirely comprised of best 22 players, required fringe/depth players and untried players like Thomas, Stubbs and Farmer who would each be extremely stiff to be delisted without even getting a game.

We need to make 3 changes to the senior list correct? Meaning even if Shae Mac leaves that doesn't count towards the required amount?

Thats right. It is a requirement that you have three draft picks in the National Draft each year which means you need to create three positions on your senior list. Brown is the only certainty so far this year. We need another two. We will likely lose players through trade. But It's why I think the tough calls on Stubbs and Dick may be made. Farmer is also in trouble. I think it is fringe guys like McCarthy, Rounds, Goldsack and Rounds which may open up positions on our list. They would be a big loss but thats the situation with this list. They are handy but not critical players.

 

[PieBeast]

Rounds' effort of keeping Boomer under complete control looked AFL quality to me, really, really bewildering call Knight.
He has courage, nice skills and decent pace, he's also a great spoiler.

Rounds and Thomas won't be traded or delisted, they are our future.

Maj is about a 99% certainty to retire/head home, means we only need to make one more obligatory change to the list. I believe it will come out of J Mac, Stubbs and Farmer and anyone else who want to seek greener pastures.

PS. Great read Quicky, absolutely agree that our most pressing need is a quality KPF

 

[Snoop Dog]

Great Quicky .....as always.

Be pretty p*ssed if Davis heads home given what the club has gone thru for him. Opportunity of being a one club player. Kraks might be the glue that keeps him.

 

[chestbrah]

Not sure if it has been announced in the media yet, but I have it on very good authority (his girlfriend) that Shae was told last Wednesday that his contract would not be getting renewed. Shame as he always came across as an exceptional bloke.

 

[new breed]

Reported in the West Australian today that Josh Stott is on Collingwoods radar .

Stott is an All Australian 20 yr old Amateur playing for North Beach , played a senior game for East Perth in the final round of the season .
Stott is descibed as a promising ruckman and I would imagine he would be quite cheap come draft time ,..... even a rookie pick !