Quigley's 2012 Mock

[Quigley]

“It appears to me that unlike 2010 and 2011, there is a greater divergence of opinion amongst clubs as to the relative merits of this draft cohort. Some of the selections that have been speculated in the media and online also support that view. Therefore, it may well be that on November 22 there are a few surprises.”

Robert Kerr – Lions List Manager

I agree with Kerr on this one. There has been quite a lot of sameness in the BF drafts this year and I think quite a few teams’ supporters are going to be scratching their heads when their favourites are overlooked. My mock is different and I rate players differently to you and to the teams. Having watched the draft for some time I am not going to be overly concerned about this. Some I get right some I get wrong. I will toot my own horn in the future where I rated guys higher than he was taken on the day and I will conveniently forget my mistakes.

I have never met any of this year’s draftees and don’t have any real insight into their personalities. This is both good and bad. On the good I am judging purely by what they do on the field but it is bad when I am not aware of things which are likely to adversely affect their on-field performances.

On biases I like to talk up the Div 2 guys when I can and mark down the Vic guys. I think the Div 2 guys particularly the Tasmanians are often unjustly marked hard even by the professionals whilst the Victorians are taken higher than they should be on the back of some good form against often pretty substandard junior opposition in the TAC.

There will inevitably be some people who know particular players who read this that will get their noses out of joint at some of the critiques I provide on the players. I freely admit that I get to see very little of these guys really and I do apologise if I have gotten something wrong. I do try to address weaknesses as well as strengths in my write-ups and it is likely that I have caught some players on bad days and so my opinion would be coloured by that. If this is the case sorry but I am trying to give an honest opinion and not just trying to be mean. I have no agenda against any particular player.

ROUND ONE
1. Greater Western Sydney – Lachlan Whitfield
2. Greater Western Sydney – Brodie Grundy
3. Greater Western Sydney - Jimmy Toumpas
4. Melbourne – Oliver Wines
5. Western Bulldogs – Dayle Garlett
6. Western Bulldogs - Sam Mayes
7. Port Adelaide – Jackson McCrae
8. Brisbane Lions – Jesse Lonergan
9. Richmond – Ben Kennedy
10. Essendon – Joe Daniher
11. Carlton – Kristian Jaksch
12. Greater Western Sydney – Troy Menzel
13. Gold Coast – Jake Stringer
14.Greater Western Sydney – Tom Clurey
15. North Melbourne – Sam Colquohoun
16. Geelong – Jonothan O’Rourke
17. Fremantle – Mason Shaw
18. Collingwood – Tim O’Brien
19. Collingwood – Josh Simpson
20. Adelaide – Dean Towers
21. Collingwood – Jack Hannath
22. Western Bulldogs – Lachlan Plowman
23. Sydney Swans – Nick Vlastuin

END OF ROUND ONE
24. Brisbane Lions – Spencer White

ROUND TWO
25. St Kilda Nathan Hrovat
26. St Kilda – Tanner Smith
27. Melbourne – Jack Viney
28. Greater Western Sydney – Liam McBean
29. Hawthorn – Nick Rodda
30. Port Adelaide – Jackson Thurlow
31. Port Adelaide – Marvin Warrell
32. Richmond – Tim Membrey
33. Brisbane Lions – Liam Flaherty
34. Richmond – Tom Temay
35. Essendon – Rory Atkins
36. Carlton – Tim Broomhead
37. Fremantle – Adam Carter
38. North Melbourne – Mason Wood
39. Collingwood – Patrick Wilson
40. Fremantle – Brant Colledge
41. St Kilda – Marco Paparone
42. North Melbourne – Tailor Garner
43. Richmond – Laine Wilkins
44. St Kilda – Kyle Hartigan
45. Sydney Swans – Jarrod Leinhert

ROUND THREE
46. West Coast – Kamdyn McIntosh
47. Sydney – Jordan Bourke
48. North Melbourne – Tim Sumner
49. Melbourne – Tom Gribble
50. Western Bulldogs – Lachlan Hunter
51. Western Bulldogs – Jack Frost
52. Essendon - Matthew Haynes
53. Melbourne – Jesse Wallin
54. Adelaide – Nathan Wright
55. Essendon – Matthew Appleton
56. Carlton – Nicholas Grahan
57. Gold Coast – Matthew McDonough
58. North Melbourne – Shane Nelson
59. Geelong – Ryan Johnson
60. Fremantle – Alex Howson
61. West Coast – Ben Rioli
62. West Coast – Max Duffy
63. North Melbourne – Jason Pongracic
64. Adelaide – Matthew Dick
65. Greater Western Sydney – Michael Close
66. Sydney Swans – Shannon Taylor
67. Sydney Swans – Andrew Boston

 

[Quigley]

Pick 1 – Greater Western Sydney

There has never been any doubt who is going number one and probably rightly so although I personally could see a good argument that Grundy should be in the picture.

Lachlan Whitfield
DOB: 18/7/94 Ht: 184 Wt: 77

Really announced himself at the Champs last year with some superb games where he was a running machine making the AA as a bottom aged player. This year’s Champs were maybe a little underwhelming based on his talent but still he did enough that no-one has really questioned his number 1 pick credentials. This year he has played a lot up forward and the running power that was so evident last year has not been on show as much this year. It would not surprise me if he has had some OP which has hampered him.

What GWS are getting is a top echelon talent just made for modern AFL football. Last year there was talk that he had tested better than any junior previously had in the beep and when fully fit you can take it as a given that he will run all day. You can also add a really nice burst of speed, clean hands above his head and below his knees and great skills and vision. In short he looks the total package.

Whitfield is a left footer who is also very good off his right. His vision is good in the open field and in tight and his ability to execute quite difficult kicks into tight target areas is probably better than anyone else in this draft. When he has time to balance the weighting on his kicks is superb. His field kicking is not massively long but he does get reasonable penetration. His set shot for goal is reliable although he will often guide the ball through the goal rather than kicking through it. He doesn’t get a lot of momentum with a deliberate approach to his set shot but that doesn’t seem to matter too much with him having range to 50 without losing accuracy. The balance on his set shot is good. He has reasonable goal awareness but I would not put it up there with the elite guys in this area.

Whitfield was very outside last year and his spread and running was excellent. This year he has played deeper forward and more inside. His spread is still very good but maybe not to the same level as last year. Up forward he often seems to get easy separation and works his man over nicely with his combination of smarts, endurance and change of direction. He also finds the seams in a defence nicely. What I have also noticed is how well he times his arrival at the ball. He seems to get to the ball at just the right time and for a forward this is a very helpful skill (and skill it is).

He has improved his inside game a lot since last year and now I think he is probably one of the better clearance winnings in this draft. I lot of people tend not to rate his inside game but to me I think it is very good. He is not a bottom of the pack kind of clearance winner but rather a guy who judges the ball off hands better than those around him, arrives at pace and comes out the other side with the ball. He slides through contested situations very nicely with good swerve rather than side steps (think Judd not Rioli). He has clean hands and doesn’t fumble. As with anyone he is tackled in tight not infrequently but he is very aware to clear his hands and he has a great ability to present his torso but not his arms for tackling and so allow himself to get the handball away. He has not shown superquick hands inside but that has not really been his style either.

Whitfield has bulked up since last year a bit but he still is pretty light and in need of some time in the gym. In particular his arms are a bit spindley and he needs some work on the guns. With that said he does often show good strength and balance in the contest and he is not the easiest guy to bring down. On the other side of the coin he is a reasonable tackler although it is probably has not been a focus of his game up until now. On the field he does the team things and will share the love around rather than going for glory every time. He looks like a good teammate and someone you would want to play with. His game reminds me a bit of Dayne Beams (now rather than as a junior) in the way he plays up forward, his running and his underestimated ball winning ability.

I don’t know what was going on at the Combine but he tested pretty poorly in the testing he did do. He did not do the endurance testing, his pace was woeful (second slowest off the mark and bottom 3% over the 20m) and his jumping not much better. If he was injured I wouldn’t see the point of testing at all but when he did his lack of explosiveness was very evident. I think he plays a lot better than those test results reveal so maybe there was something going on I didn’t know about. It’s also worth noting that he has the smallest hands of anyone tested and close to the smallest I can remember. I rarely take note of the handspan results other than the outliers and he certainly was that. For midfielders though I wouldn’t have any concerns.

Pick 2 – Greater Western Sydney

There are two stand out talents for me this year. Whitfield is one and Grundy is the other. GWS overlooked the clear number 1 ruck last year in Longer and it would not surprise me if the plan all along was to secure Grundy. This is a no-brainer for me.

Brody Grundy
DOB: 15/4/94 Ht: 202 Wt: 100

Quite simply Grundy is the best and most complete junior ruckman that I have seen. In Natanui you could see the sublime talent but it was not there yet. With Grundy it is all on show and if GWS overlook him they have rocks in their heads. This is all the more impressive because he is a late comer to the game only crossing over from basketball as a 16 year old. The fact that he has never had any specialist ruck training and has played less than 50 games in his life make him all the more impressive as a prospect and I think his talent is immense.

Grundy was impressive last year as a bottom aged player albeit as a bit of a beanpole. That has changed a great deal in the last twelve months. He has stacked on the weight and is a powerful, mature athlete now. He will continue to develop physically but he does not need to put on nearly as much weight as most young ruck prospects. He already has a powerful lower half which he uses to great effect during games. Unlike a lot of late basketball converts Grundy seems to thrive on the physical aspects of the game and he loves getting in there and throwing his weight around. In basketball terms he is more of a Howard style tall rather than a Durant type. In AFL terms I expect him to become a Mumford style power ruck.

At junior level, Grundy was simply too big and too powerful for those he came up against this year. It was a poor year for ruck prospects and the difference between he and his closest competition was vast. Last year though as a skinny 17 year old he still did very well in the ruck contest against stronger opposition. He controls his taps very well and has excellent knowledge of where his mids are around him. He had a series of moves with the SA mids and executed many of them very well. He seemed to have a great understanding with Kennedy who benefited a great deal from the dominance Grundy was able to exert in the ruck. He is a little unusual with a two armed jumping style but it is effective and he gets good height on his jumps. He is a right handed tapper but is also a fan of the two hander which he brings out a few times each game.

In addition to being excellent in the ruck itself, Grundy is also very dangerous up forward and he is a regular multiple goal kicker. He uses his strength and height to great effect and if he weren’t going to be a ruck he could be a nice FF prospect. He moves well around the forward 50 and when he establishes position he is immovable by most KPDs. Grundy recovers quickly in contested situations and is surprisingly adept with the ball on the deck and has pretty clean and quick hands for such a big guy. He is a reasonably reliable shot for goal and can finish the opportunities he is given. There is a more than reasonable chance that Grundy could become a throwback to the old style goal-kicking ruckman like Paul Salmon kicking 30 or more goals a year. He is not particularly quick on an extended lead but on short leads he is hard to contain especially when he gets a good push off.

Contested marking is a feature of Grundy’s game no matter where he is on the field. He is adept at coming up with a stretch mark up forward, drifting in from the side through the middle of the park and dropping back into the hole in front of the leading forward down back. His hands are very soft and he absorbs contact without letting it affect his marking ability. He is a good judge of the ball in the air and takes it at a point where few non-rucks can reach. He tested very well in the running leap at the Combine and this combined with his height allows him to get up above virtually anyone.

Around the ground, Grundy is improving and would be pretty good for an under 18. His endurance is solid and he gets to contests and where he is needed. He does link up pretty well and his marking allows him to be a bail out option if needed. Skills wise he is a lot better than you expect of someone this big with as little experience as he has. He usually plays within himself with his kicks going short to medium distance most often and at this range he tends not to overhit the ball and has nice feel on the kicks. When he goes for distance his technique changes a fair bit with him having a higher, two handed ball drop and leaning back when he punches it. More often than not though, when he goes for it it gets where he wants it to go so it’s hard to complain.

Apparently Grundy is not the brightest star in the night sky but that has not prevented many from enjoying long AFL careers (and in the media for that matter). He does seem coachable though and his development over the last couple of years is a testament to that. It looks like he listens to what his coaches want from him and then works hard to achieve that. He has quickly closed holes in his game and if he continues to do that he will be a multiple AA before the end of his career.


Pick 3 – Greater Western Sydney

There is a bit of talk that Plowman will be taken here and if GWS draft for need rather than talent then I think there is every chance especially after losing Hombsch. I am going a different way and drafting for talent and Toumpas is the best talent here and GWS can afford to nurse him through his recovery if needed.

Jimmy Toumpas
DOB: 2/1/94 Ht: 182 Wt: 78

A lot of people seem to be ignoring Toumpas’ hip injury but I think it is worth mentioning that as I understand it, it is the same operation as Docherty had for the Lions at the end of last year. He took quite a bit of time to recover and really only managed to get back to full fitness at midseason. Unlike Docherty there was never any doubt where Toumpas was going to be drafted so him finishing up after the Champs to have the surgery early may help him get back quicker. He is scheduled to be fully fit come draft day but it would not surprise me if it takes a little longer than that and he is on a modified program until at least the new year.

I watched Toumpas at the Champs last year and thought he was a nice but not great talent. That opinion changed though when I watched a couple of his games in the SANFL finals last year. He was fantastic in senior company and was an important player in the WWT premiership team. Suddenly this was a kid I could see being a star at AFL level. Last year he played mostly as a winger/flanker and his running ability was a feature. He worked extremely hard and covered a mass of ground for a 17 year old. He has added a few more strings to his bow this year and should end up being a good all-round midfielder capable of winning his own ball on the inside and then spreading very well to receive on the outside.

The hip injury I think did affect his running a bit this year. He still covered a lot of ground but I do not think there was quite the power running that seemed in the offing in the SANFL finals last year. His pace also seemed a little off this year. He has a reputation as being a very quick player but I thought the explosiveness was a bit down probably due to the hip. Hopefully the op fixes things right up and he is back to his best athletically next year.

Whilst he came back to the field a little athletically this year there was still plenty of class to keep people happy. Toumpas got around the field very well and was where he needed to be whether on the wing or deep in defence. One of the great things with Toumpas is his follow up ability. This is a kid who does not just kick the ball and think his job is done. He passes off the ball and then works his butt off for 15-20 metres to see if he is needed to get the ball back or to tackle or corral the opposition. This bit of extra work on plays paid off time after time and saw him continually positively impacting plays.

Toumpas has a reputation for being an elite kick. Whilst his disposal efficiency may be very high (82% for the Champs) I personally rate his kicking as something which needs to be improved on. His DE% is so high because he continually chips little 25-30 metre passes. He rarely goes long and when he does his kicking is not as good as it could be. At the next level chip kicking can be dangerous and being able to hit long targets is a must for an elite player. Wherever he goes I am sure there will be a focus on improving his long kicking and upping the hurt factor on disposals.

Whilst I am on the negatives I also noticed a few times that he got flustered a bit under pressure with the ball in hand. As an outside player capable of outrunning virtually anyone maybe he has not been used to being pressured that much. At AFL level though he is going to be under the pump a lot more and again this is something which will need to be worked on. That is not to say he could not be cool under pressure as well. He slotted a great goal in the dying stages in last year’s GF and regularly took great contested marks deep in defence at the Champs. He was a rock in defense at times for SA this year organising the troops and being in the right place at the right time. He did so well in fact that depending on who drafts him it would not surprise me if he started his career as a defender.

Okay a few more positives. Toumpas is a big run and carry guy and one of the excellent features he has for me is his ability to execute his skills at full pace. He can gather, balance and deliver with very little slowing of his pace and given he can move it along that makes him difficult to deal with for those trying to stop him. Another of his big selling features is his leadership skills. He was the SA captain this year and it was evident that he was the leader out there. I could definitely see him captaining an AFL team one day. Toumpas’ tackling is also very strong and his strength in the contest is also good for a guy who is not terribly big.

Toumpas has a great drive to succeed and will not fall short because of a lack of dedication. He is willing to work and work hard to get better. That feature alone sets him apart from many and is one of the main reasons why I have him so high. I think there are others in this draft who have higher ceilings than Toumpas but not many who have higher floors.


Pick 4 – Melbourne

Melbourne have restocked their KPs through free agency and the mini-draft and will try and add significantly to their ball winning ability in the middle through this draft. At this pick it’s hard to see them going past Wines who is one of Viney’s good mates and is a player who I think will complement Viney very nicely to form a formidable inside tandem not too far down the track.

Oliver Wines
DOB: 1/10/94 Ht: 188 Wt: 90

Wines is an inside mid who has shown really good development over the last couple of years improving in all areas of his game to the extent that he must now be considered with the elites of this draft. I would probably put him behind only Viney of the inside players available this year.

Wines is a big lad for his age and is more physically developed than many of the guys he played with and against. He has a good set of shoulders on him and is a stocky build although room to develop in his lower half. Don’t be deceived by the build however, he has very good endurance and has gone over 15 in the beep before. He spreads from contests very well and this is an area where he has improved a lot over the last year or so. At the Champs he showed a great ability to work hard forward into dangerous spots. It’s great to have the endurance but unlike some that come through Wines also has the footy smarts to know how to use it. This as much as his inside ability is one of the reasons I have him so high.

Wines has made a name for himself as an inside mid. I think he should do very well at that at AFL level but he is by no means assured of success. He is not the cleanest inside player you will see and is prone to fumbling a little (not all the time but enough to notice it). With less time to react at AFL level this could cause him problems and reduce his effectiveness. One of other main strengths at the moment is also something which could go either way at the next level. As a junior, Wines has shown great ability to absorb contact inside, not panic, retain his feet and balance, keep his arms free and get the ball out. At AFL level where guys are quicker, stronger and with better technique will he be able to do the same?

The innate ability to keep his composure could really help him under the increased pressure at the next level but on the other side of the coin if he hangs onto it too long he will be punished more often. I think his hands inside are quick but not elite. He has shown good ability to evaluate the situation and then execute and I expect this to hold him in good stead at the next level. He often starts outside of packs and works inside but he is not one to hit the pack at pace and come out the other side. He works in and holds with strength. He regularly gets first hands to the ball and can often be seen on his hands and knees at the bottom of a pack. On knees he has shown good ability to still be able to clear the ball.

As with a lot of young inside mids his kicking does need a bit of work but he will be working from a higher base than Watson say or Smith last year. He is not a particularly long kick and is a little inconsistent with his weighting. His set shot for goal is solid but not anything more than that and whilst he can get it from 50 that is the absolute limit of his range at the moment. His kicking is not a liability but neither is it a strength and it is something which he will need to work on further.

Pace wise he is mostly pretty average but he does have a nice 10m burst that he uses effectively which I see as a function of his endurance rather than necessarily quickness. He might not have a particularly high top end but he can get there quickly. Overall Wines is a pretty average athlete across the board and he tested that way at combine (except in endurance where he tested very well as expected). Another area where Wines has improved is with his marking. For an inside mid I think he is a good mark of the ball having reasonable hands above his head and being a very good judge of the ball in the air.

Wines is one of the better tacklers, technique wise this year. Unlike many he wraps but also uses his shoulder to drive the man. In tight he will get his fair share of tackles throughout his career. Overall he looks like a pretty good inside prospect.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 5 – Western Bulldogs

I would not be surprised to see Toumpas go here on the day but whichever way they go the Bulldogs have to start adding some class to their side. They have filled up with blue collar workers who will get in and do the dirty work including two more in the trade period this year. Now they need to introduce a bit of class into the joint. This may be a little high for Garlett given the off field risks he presents but for me he has as high a ceiling as anyone in this draft and he is just the kind of player the Bulldogs need.

Dayle Garlett
DOB: 9/1/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 75

Let’s be frank the only way Garlett slides is because teams get scared off by the disciplinary problems that resulted in him getting kicked out of the AIS and missing the tour to Europe and the fact that he has shown an unwillingness to curb his excessively drinking and smoking. I don’t know exactly what the problems were at the AIS but he has been saying all the right things for most of the year and has acknowledged that a change of state would probably do him good. If he had it all together though, he is up there with the top couple of picks on talent. I watched Cyril at the Champs playing for NT and Garlett is an incredibly similar offensive talent. If he falls like Cyril did and he gets his life together some team is going to get the same kind of gift that he Hawks got and that kind of win makes premierships. Personally I say to hell with that and draft him on talent very high.

Garlett will most likely start his AFL career as a HFFer. He played that role a lot at the Champs last year and in the WAFL seniors this year. He played 18 games in the WAFL this year and averaged 15.6 possessions a game and finished with 25 goals (really similar numbers to Cyril in the AFL). Not bad for a short kid with quite a bit of development to go. For his size he is excellent overhead and when the ball hits the ground he is dynamite. He judges the ball off hands very well and his clean hands allow him to swoop and keep going at pace. He has excellent goal sense and he is a good finisher but not in the excellent category. He kicked 25 goals 15 behinds in the WAFL which gives you an idea of his finishing ability. His set shot is solid and generally reliable but he will on occasion push it wide.

The one big difference between Cyril and Dayle is in the tackling department. Cyril has always been a very good tackler and whilst Dayle can tackle pretty well he does not have the application that Cyril has. That could change quickly with him being likely to be required by his AFL coach to chase more and with an increased endurance base he is likely to be able to carry it off.

Through the middle of the ground though is where I think Garlett’s future lies. He was the number one midfielder for WA at the Champs and the guy the others all looked to feed. He also played through the middle in his 6 games at Colts level where he averaged 25 possessions a game. He is more of an outside in player at the moment but his inside work has improved a lot over the last year or so and there is no reason to think it will not continue to do so. He has great hands, ability to read the ball off hands and awareness of what is around him. With more time in the middle he will become a very good inside player. Without the ball his spread is excellent and he works hard to get into a good position to receive. He would be up there with the best available this year in that regard. Another part of his game which is pure Cyril is his evasiveness when he has got absolutely no room to move. He will have three or four guys around him but they won’t lay a glove on him as he dodges and steps. What I also like is that he chooses wisely when to dance and when not to. If there is an option open he has the awareness to identify it and use it.

I don’t know who did the highlights package for the AFL this year but they did Garlett no favours. You would think from watching the footage that he had average disposal skills at best and that is far from the truth. Garlett is a dominant left footer who has great touch on his kicks and a balanced and relaxed kicking style. He has reasonable penetration but like Cyril he does most damage with the ¾ strength kicks that his great vision allows him to see and then hit. He did on occasion try a little too much at the Champs but I think he works that out at the next level. He is capable on his right but tends to go long most often rather than picking out targets.

Garlett is a very damaging run and carry player. He gets into space and then uses his running ability, decision making and skills to really hurt teams. He has an elite burst of pace and can clear packs or shut down other runners very quickly. His top end speed may not be truly elite but with some more focus on it at AFL level it’s hard to see him being caught too often. Like Cyril at 18 he is a little pudgy around the middle and is going to be in for plenty of pain in his first AFL preseason which will focus on building his engine and converting the fat into muscle. One of his main issues has been in preparation and his dedication in this regard will certainly be tested in his first preseason. He is a very balanced mover but could use a little more strength in his core to get the most out of his skills inside.

Overall I really like Garlett and I think he is one of the real difference makers in this draft. If your team gets him make sure you celebrate hard. His coach at Swan Districts described him as insanely talented and right up there with Natanui, Yarran and Coniglio who he also coached. From what I have seen I am inclined to agree and so I take him if I have the chance.


Pick 6 – Western Bulldogs

I have heard they are very into Stringer with one of their two picks. That seems a bit risky given who is likely to still be on the ball but he is the kind of inside ball winner who McCartney seems unable to resist. Personally I would go with someone like Mayes who offers probably more up forward and definitely more class around the ground.

Sam Mayes
DOB: 20/5/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 78

A lot of people love Menzel this year despite his knee issues and seem to forget that he really was just playing the role that Mayes vacated to get more midfield time this year. Mayes played that role so well last year that he made the All Australian side as an underaged player. Despite Mayes showing ability to move back to the midfield by far his biggest selling feature for AFL clubs will be his ability to kick goals and they will play him as a HFFer and get him to kick as many as he can.

For me he is far and away the best shot for goal this year both with his set shot and, without doubt, on the run. He is a deadeye dick in front of goal and exudes confidence when taking shots. He maintains balance throughout his set shot and balances quickly on the run and from there he just makes it look so easy. He has an uncomplicated style with few moving parts and as a consequence things tend not to go wrong very often.

The other big feature of his game is his marking. He is an elite mark with suburb hands and judgment of the ball in the air. Even when he is unable to mark the ball he has strong enough hands to control the fall of the ball. He has great control of his body in the air and timing on his leaps so he hits the ball at his highest point and with balance and body control. When he hits the ground he recovers quickly and always has good knowledge of where the ball is.

It is a shame he is not a little taller as he would be a real handful. As it is he has decent endurance and a very good burst of pace which he uses to create separation from his man almost at will. He is a smart footballer, up forward in particular where he gets to dangerous spots and reads defensive coverage very well. Whilst he is an exceptional shot for goal he does not get tunnel vision once he gets it and is always looking for teammates in better spots than he is. His kicking inside 50 to teammates is elite.

A lot of people love his field kicking and whilst I would say he is a good kick he can have off days. I also think his decision making coming out of the middle of the ground can a little below top shelf. This could be a function of not being very used to playing midfield and is something which might improve as he gets used to running a different way (ie running toward goal rather than leading away from it). With all that said he does have a classic kicking style and during games he will regularly wheel out kicks which are sublime in their execution.

At the Champs he played in the middle of the ground mostly and showed some propensity for it. At the clearances he was around it enough and did win his fair share. I would not mistake him for an inside mid though at this stage. He tends to let the ball come to him a bit rather than attacking it and when he gets his hands on the ball he is too often stationary. His hands in tight are okay but not super quick but he does have pretty good spatial awareness of who is where. He is quite smart with his control of the ball under pressure but is a beat behind specialist inside mids in deciding what to do and executing it.

Mayes has definite capacity to bulk up and does need to get stronger to get the most out of his talent when competing against AFL bodies. He has been effective working against mature bodies in the SANFL but greater strength is something which will help him a lot as he does get buffeted around quite a bit at the moment. Another thing to work on is his tackling technique. He is a fairly willing tackler but he is very much an arm tackler at the moment and is going to get brushed a lot early in the AFL. He needs to use his shoulder more but I am sure that will be drummed into him. His endurance is pretty good but is another thing which could be improved upon.

I have been very high on Mayes since last year’s Champs and nothing I have seen has really changed my mind. He was not a dominant mid at the Champs this year but he showed some ability to play there and combining that with his talent as a forward I think he should go very high in this draft.


Pick 7 – Port Adelaide

I think there is every chance that Mayes goes here in the real thing and he would be a great get for Port. However if things fall as I have them they will have to look elsewhere and going for McCrae would add a bit of class to a team in need of it.

Jackson Macrae
DOB: 3/8/94 Ht: 189 Wt: 76

Macrae is one guy who has risen sharply on draft boards over the course of the year. He was not really on my radar early in the year but certainly got my attention at the Champs with some very nice performances and just as importantly he built on that good work finishing the year strongly in the TAC particularly in the finals where he averaged 28 possessions a game. Clubs really seem to value strong finishes to the year and Macrae certainly had that and I think he is now every chance to go top 10.

Looking for a comparison in current AFL ranks I would probably say Dal Santo would be a good one. Both are left footers and have a similar kicking style. Despite Macrae having a reputation as a very fine kick he is not in the Dal Santo category yet although I am sure whoever picks him will hope he can get there. He is predominantly an outside player but he will put his head over the ball when needed. Like Dal Santo, Macrae tended to be the guy that the ball winning mids for Metro liked to get the ball to. O’Rourke in particular looked for Macrae at virtually every opportunity. He was the class receiver in that Metro midfield unit.

Macrae’s kicking is somewhat overrated at the moment. He has nice penetration and a very pretty kicking style but his decision making and execution can be a bit suspect on occasions. He is prone to making a poor decision and turning the ball over but I think with a bit more experience and work that can be ironed out. He goes for things and can drop passes into tight slots very nicely. His set shot for goal technique is a bit variable and he can at times look a bit unbalanced in his approach. At other times he looks great. He also tends to grip the ball on his set shots a little on the side which again makes his technique seem a little out of the ordinary. He is not the most accurate shot for goal although not terrible either.

At the Champs he played a fair bit of time up forward and did a pretty decent job of it. He worked hard with his leading and is very capable overhead. He provided good defensive pressure on the ball coming out of defense and had a couple of very nice intercept marks when opposition players underestimated his ability to close the space, get off the ground and mark the ball. It would not surprise me if Macrae started his career as a HFF before moving into the midfield as he develops a bit more physically.

He is a bit on the light side at the moment but should fill out fine. He has nice height and a burst of pace which tends to catch opposition by surprise. He closes space and accelerates from a contest very well. At the Combine he tested up with the very best over the first 10m before dropping away pretty sharply and his 30m repeat sprint time was on the poor side. In game situations he does use his ability to get up to speed quickly to good effect and although I didn’t notice a top end speed problem during games looking back I can sort of see it in the way he plays.

His endurance seemed pretty good in game situations but he again tested pretty poorly in this regard at Combine. He will need to improve this for any move to the midfield but I note when he is around the play he seems to work hard and so his gut running seems okay. Personally I think there should not be a problem with him developing the tank necessary for a move to the midfield. In traffic Macrae is reasonably elusive but not close to being elite. As I described it in my notes he is elusive enough to enable him to get a kick away but not evasive enough to beat everyone around him. What he does have is a very nice baulk which he is not shy about bringing out and he sells it very well when he does.

Although he works pretty hard chasing he is not a great tackler. He is okay and will try but he needs some work done on his technique. On the other side of the coin he is not particularly easy to tackle and is able to shrug tackles better than you would expect a player of his size. Again I think the opposition often tend to underestimate him. In tight situations he displays good spatial awareness and takes the time that he needs and is there. This is a good skill and one that will be helpful the AFL.

Overall I think Macrae is probably not elite in any one category but he has a lot of really nice traits which teams will find attractive and think they can build on. If he does build on them he could become an elite midfielder and he is one of the easier to see becoming such in this draft.


Pick 8 – Brisbane

Ideally Brisbane would take a key position forward with this pick but unfortunately none of the prospects really warrant being picked here. Shaw and Jacksch are not out of the question but I would consider both a reach. So instead of that I will draft for need and go with Lonergan who ticks a couple of boxes. Firstly he allows me to make my traditional Div 2 top 10 pick and secondly he actually meets a need for the Lions. Lonergan should develop into the big bodied, inside midfielder that Voss has been trying to manufacture for the last couple of years.

Jesse Lonergan
DOB: 14/11/94 Ht: 182 Wt: 91

Every year I put my best Div 2 prospect in the top 10. This year there is really only one real candidate and that Lonergan and when it is all said and done he really deserves to be considered alongside others who are being considered as possible top 10 picks. Put it this way I would take him ahead of Vlastuin who some are talking up at pick 9. Lonergan has a lot going for him and there is still plenty of development potential with him. It is definitely on the cards that he could have been one of the best inside players to come out of this draft.

Lonergan has been playing senior football since he was 15 and has played in the TSL grand finals the last two years. He was also the Tasmanian Rising Star Winner last year as a 16 year old. He played at the Champs last year as a bottom ager and was impressive against the Div 1 teams and had 19 disposals including 6 clearances against WA and ended up being given and AIS place. This year the first half of his year was decimated by a torn lateral meniscus in his knee which required surgery. He eventually returned for Tasmania’s three Div 2 games at the Champs. Not unsurprisingly he was not at full fitness and only averaged 16 possessions a game. His fitness picked up as the season progressed though and by the end of the year he was back to close to his best.

Lonergan has made a name for himself as an inside midfielder and if you want him play you can see why. Personally I would have him behind only Viney as an inside talent this year although Wines would be in the picture. He is a very solid guy already now particularly through the legs and as he develops further he is going to be a very powerful athlete. He has nice variety of moves to win balls in clearance situations. At clearances he hunts the ball and is very aggressive. He will get in there and harass and hustle in tight relying on his powerful frame but equally he can also run off players and pop free where he thinks the ball will go. He finds dangerous space in ruck situations as well as anyone in this draft. He reads the ball of hands very well and also seems to judge how deep the taps will go. It’s not something I tend to notice much but Lonergan seems to have a knack of being the right distance from the ruck when the ball is tapped his way.

He works well in the phone box, makes good quick decisions and then executes. His hands are fast and he is very strong over the ball with a low centre of gravity. Inside he is a fair bit like his uncle Sam but he has an added weapon of being much more agile and much much more explosive off the mark. He shoots gaps very well and has the strength to break arm tackles and the pace to be gone before the opposition can react.

At the moment he does not have a particularly well developed outside game but I think will more focus on that it will come. He has been such a dominant inside ball winner that I tend to think that has been enough and his injury this year has cruelled the opportunity to develop it. He is a smart player with very good pace, reasonable endurance and tidy skills. Build his tank up a bit more and emphasis the spread more and I think you will find a very nice outside game under that hard inside exterior. If you get a chance to watch his highlights have a look at the TSL stuff toward the end and in particular the great work he does on the wing exchanging handballs and then bolting to follow the ball into forward 50 and receive back for the finish and goal. I think that kind of play is going to occur more often as he develops, improves his endurance base and is required to work outside more by his coaches.

Skills wise he is very good by hand and improved by foot. He is an excellent distributor by hand and is a very good exponent of the long handball being able to rip them out with seemingly very little back lift of his right fist. He has worked hard on his kicking the last couple of years and it is paying off. He is solid by foot now and with his rate of improvement you would think he could end up significantly better than that. He is a right footer who is capable of executing on his left although it is evident that it is not his natural foot.

In addition to his midfield work Longergan is also a pretty dangerous forward. Interestingly he tends not to use his pace a great deal up forward instead he uses his strength and body control most often to get him marks and goal scoring attempt. He is a good finisher whether on the run or from his set shot which whilst lacking a bit in fluidity it is pretty effective. He is a good mark above his head, getting nice height and being difficult to move in the air. On the ground as you might imagine, he is clean and shows a good ability to get it out to a teammate for a shot. I don't think he has the goal sense of a true small forward but like Bartel or Martin he can be dangerous and hard to contend with when he rests up forward.

For a not particularly tall, brick outhouse he was a star at the Combine and I am sure a few of the coaches who might not have watched him as much as their recruiters were asking to have a second look at him. He won goal kicking test, was 2nd in the vertical leap, 2nd in the agility test and 7th in the repeat sprint. He was not particularly quick over the first five metres but once he was up to speed he had elite quickness. So not only is this kid a smart, very physical clearance winning machine he is also a superior athlete. His endurance testing was middle of the pack which was basically what I expected. There is a lot of talent to work with with this kid and if the usual Tasmanian discount applies some team is going to get a bargain.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 9 – Richmond

Richmond have a bit of size through the midfield and I think can afford to have a small bloke join the rotation especially when that small bloke can add to the class of the unit. Kennedy will probably start up forward and move into the midfield when Martin and Cotchin rest in the forward line. There are not many clubs who are going to say no to another Brent Harvey and that is what Kennedy brings to the table for Richmond.

Ben Kennedy
DOB 3/3/94 Ht: 174 Wt: 74

I have Kennedy higher than most would have him but if Prestia and Devon Smith can go around this area then there is no reason why a superior talent like Kennedy should also not go high. The player who he gets compared to by everyone who has watched him play is Brent Harvey and there is no reason why he can’t have a similar impact on games. That being the case teams should be lining up to pick him especially if you already have a bit of height through your midfield.

Let’s not beat around the bush. Kennedy is short. There is no way around that fact. Another fact though is that he can play. Up forward he is a dangerous crumber who works the seams of zones very intelligently and gets open often enough to have opposition coaches pulling their hair out. He has good goal sense and is a capable finisher. For someone his size he is also pretty good overhead and he plays above his height. He is quick around goal and reads the ball nicely in the air and off hands. With the ball on the ground he has excellent hands and is someone who will recover quickly and take advantage of every chance he is given. Defensively he will provide a decent chase but I would not say it is a feature of his game at the moment. That will obviously change as a small forward in the AFL and there is no reason to think he will not adapt quickly.

His set shot is not picture perfect and probably needs some work. He has a bit of a stuttering approach and a tendency to wave the ball around as he comes in to kick. As a consequence of all the movement he is not the most accurate shot at goal although he is not bad either. He has a fair leg on him and is capable of putting them through from outside 50.

He is a left footer with a nice field kicking style who gets good penetration and is capable of punching in worm burners when called for. He looks very good when kicking the ball and looks to have good feel on his kicks. One area which does cause me some concern is his decision making. Sometime Kennedy’s confidence outweighs his competence and he tries to go for kicks which simply aren’t on. He too often kicks it to situations where his player is outnumbered or where the percentages are just not with him.

In the middle of the ground at the Champs Kennedy had a great understanding with Grundy and seemed camped at his feet with ball coming down his throat and he got first hands to the ball more often than not. He was one of the better players at getting the ball out of clearances and showed pretty quick decision making and hand skills. He has a low centre of gravity and is strong for his size being able to hold over the ball nicely. He is persistent when onball and will follow the ball and often make things happen. Once the ball leaves the clearance he spreads quickly to space and provides a link going forward. His outside skills are every bit as good as his inside skills.

Athletically there is a lot to like with Kennedy. He is very quick and elusive and uses those attributes very well in working through traffic. This is often where the Brent Harvey comparisons come in. He accelerates quickly and flits about being very difficult to tackle. He has a pretty good tank but there is some room for improvement there and at the Champs he looked to need breaks up forward fairly regularly. Work will also need to be done to bulk him up as well.

Kennedy is a willing tackler and usually pretty effective. There are occasions though where he struggles with bigger stronger guys. For example I remember him being flung off by Stringer with almost contemptuous ease. Again a bit of strength work may help but his size is always going to count against him when matched up on bigger AFL bodies. Kennedy is a smart footballer and looks like a bloke who has been playing for a long time and understands what needs to be done. He gets to dangerous spots, put shepherds on when needed and does the little 1%ers. He looks like one of those guys who does things which elevate a good team to a great team through his understanding of the game.


Pick 10 – Essendon

Essendon does very nicely in picking up Joe Daniher as a father son. Give him a couple of years to develop and he should change the whole dynamic of this team. I do think he is a bit overrated based on his great televised game but there is a mass of potential there and he is certainly value at 10.

Joe Daniher
DOB: 4/3/94 Ht: 201 Wt: 89

The Essendon fans are rightly very excited to have this kid onboard. He chose a great time to have his best game of the year in the televised game against WA. In that game he looked unstoppable and completely annihilated Rodda. At other times during the year he has not quite looked so dominant but that game really does stick in the memory. He only played 8 TAC games this year and finished with a respectable but not brilliant 23 goals. It’s fair to say if he had played at a similar level in the TAC he would have had many more goals.

One thing I do find interesting is that everyone is very rightly scared of taking Troy Menzel because of his injury risk but the injury risk associated with Daniher is barely mentioned. With Menzel his brother is often cited as an indicator of genetic susceptibility to knee injuries which he has already suffered. A very similar argument could be made with the similarities in the Hartlett brothers and the injuries they have suffered. The Bomber fans have obviously expunged Darcy Daniher from their memories. Just to refresh your memory Darcy is Joe’s older brother who retired in 2011 because of persistent hip, groin and adductor injuries.

Joe has already suffered a quite a lot of soft tissue injuries and has had to rework his running style to try and prevent further injuries. It is worth noting that Drummond also tried to go down the changing running style route before conceding defeat to persistent injuries this year. Daniher is also going to a club which was unable to sort out his brother’s injuries nor their previous great hope up forward in Scott Gumbleton. Further Essendon abysmally mismanaged their players’ workload last year which resulted in soft tissue injuries galore. Joe has been handled with kid gloves to date but has still been getting injured. When he ups the workload will his body hold up or will he suffer injuries like his brother? I am sure Essendon will be ultra-cautious with him but persistent injuries are a very real risk with him and could severely inhibit his ability to reach his potential.

Okay now that hopefully I have brought the Bombers fans a bit more down to earth () we can talk about why everyone is so high on him. Well that is basically because he is a massive full forward who when he gets it all together is virtually impossible to stop. He is over 200cm and fully uses his height to mark the ball. He seems to get separation with ease and uses his body very intelligently when he is in a body on body situation. Daniher’s size and elite marking skills should (barring injury) see him develop into one of the best full forwards in the AFL. He gets up high, takes the ball at its highest point and times his arrival at the ball exceptionally well. He is a great judge of the ball in the air and makes excellent adjustments whilst the ball is in flight so that he often makes a pretty ordinary kick look good. This is the type of forward most mids dream kicking it to.

His kicking for goal looks good but it could be more accurate. He has big left leg on him and he can kick them from outside 50. There has obviously been a lot of work done on his set shot and he has a good approach without any real issues apart from a tendency to miss the goal a bit more often than you would like. At his height the ball does have to fall a fair way and things can occasionally go wrong there (I have noticed him pull the ball into his body a bit a few times for instance) but overall his technique looks like it should be an accurate one. I would suggest things are more mental than technical. On the run he is pretty good and he can deliver it into the 50 to other forwards nicely. Maybe not elite on both of those but certainly good for a player of his size.

Daniher is pretty quick, agile and good below the knees for a guy his size but realistically probably no more so than the key position defenders he will be playing against. He is still pretty thin but he has bulked up a lot and has a good set of shoulders on him now and some definite definition in his arms. He rucked a bit at the Champs and I noticed that he was regularly outbodied in there and it got me to thinking how he would go against AFL defenders. At junior level the defenders he would be playing on would not be used to playing on guys his size. At AFL level that will not be the case and they will be bigger, stronger, quicker and more used to dealing with forwards of similar size to Daniher. It frustrated me watching Rodda fail to get a body on Daniher and take it as a given that AFL FBs are going to get a body on Daniher and move him to places he doesn’t want to be. I think he will eventually work it out but I do think there will be some hiccups along the way.

Overall Daniher is a great talent but one who does come with some risks that people are underestimating just at the moment.


Pick 11 – Carlton

Carlton need to address their defense here I believe. Whether they go tall or small depends on whether Malthouse is in full on win now mode. If they go tall here I think Jaksch is a very real possibility and probably as far as he falls on the day. Macrae is another I like for Carlton if he is available as I expect them to need to plan for life after Simpson and Scotland. Colquohoun as the outsider might be a chance.

Kristian Jaksch
DOB: 7/10/94 Ht: 194 Wt: 83

Jaksch could easily be the first live (ie not father son) key position forward taken this year and that is really an indictment of the quality available. Jaksch really is just a complementary key forward who will work hard and take a bit of pressure off the main target. He played second fiddle to Daniher and Boyd when those guys played during the Champs and it was abundantly clear who was the main target and had the greater talent. The talent between those two and Jaksch is large. The player he reminds me a lot of from last year’s draft is Jackson Paine. Jaksch is a bit taller and a better defender but on talent up front they are not dissimilar.

With that said the one game I saw him play as the main target was against Tasmania and he did very well finishing with 6 goals. Admittedly I was not that impressed with the Tasmanian defenders but credit to Jaksch for making the most of the opportunity when it presented itself. I saw Jaksch earlier as a defender which apparently his coaches asked him to play to round out his game a bit more. He has played up until that time as a forward and I was impressed with more as a defender than a forward.

Jaksch is a bustling forward without any real stand out feature that teams would be confident he could use to excel at the next level. His game is solid all-around but is he going to be able to make a similar impact at AFL level? Personally I doubt that and see him longer term as a KPD and realistically he has the tools to be a nice defender. Up forward he leads hard and gets his hands to a lot of marks but he shows pretty hard hands and he spills a lot more contested marks than he takes. He has a good leap but doesn’t always time his leap to make best use of it. His repeat efforts on the lead are good and he is smart enough to get early separation on his leads but is not quick enough to maintain it and he is spoiled a lot. At the Combine he tested okay for speed. Not low enough to be a real asset and not low enough to be a real problem but somewhere in the middle. His agility though was poor and this could cause some issues if he is played I defense.

His kicking around the ground is good and he delivers well into 50 when up the ground. He has a nice little punch kick which is effective when he uses it. Penetration wise he is pretty good. His set shot style is a bit of a mess with him tending to lead with his right shoulder, stutter in the approach, wave the ball around and then hitch in his ball drop. All this adds up to his set shot being inconsistent and prone to being poor. Despite that he definitely has a full forwards attitude especially when the name forwards are not there. In the Tasmanian game I watched him deliberately not look at the open teammates in better position before going back and taking the shot (he did put it through fwiw).

What Jaksch does well is work. Defensively he is one of the better KPFs you will see at junior level at running and putting defensive pressure on the opposition defenders. Similarly he works his leads hard and when the ball is on the ground he will get in there and do the dirty work trying to get it out. He does not have particularly clean hands down low but he doesn’t mind throwing his weight around and trying to make things happen. He recovers from contests quicker than most key position players you see at junior level and mucks in to try and help out. If he ends up with the ball he is a reasonable decision maker and is capable of balancing quickly and taking a snap if that is on. He seems to have reasonable goal sense in those situations although the execution needs a bit of work.

He is a good size and should fill out well. He tends not to play to his bulk a bit and can be moved around by defenders when up forward and forwards when down back and this is something which he will need to work on. Tackling wise he also needs to focus a bit more on making the tackle rather than just going through the motions. He often seems to lose attention after he gets into position to make a tackle. He has done the hard work but then goes to sleep a bit and the man gets past him.

As mentioned above I probably like him down back more than up forward and there has been a long line of marginal KPFs who have had stellar AFL careers down back. Jaksch has the tools to join them. He quietly goes about business when in defense but does the job and when the ball needs to come back the other way he is more than capable being a productive link in the chain. The more I have seen of the KPDs this year the more disappointed I have been in them and if I was looking for one and Jaksch was available I would probably take him ahead of most of the others figuring he had a better skill set. Jaksch did a good job in defense on Daniher in the TAC finals series and I gave that more weight than the 4 goals the following week.

Overall Jaksch is a no frills, hard working key position player who you could throw into either end and expect him to do a serviceable job. For me he is a poor man’s Michael Hurley.


Pick 12 – Greater Western Sydney

GWS can pretty much afford to just go with whoever takes their fancy. They along with Gold Coast are the two teams picking around this area who can afford to take a punt on Menzel. GWS and GC are so stacked with young talent that if they waste a highish pick on a high risk high reward type who doesn’t work out it is not going to be too detrimental to the development of the team as a whole. There is a lot of talk of Menzel going as high as the Bulldogs as 5 and 6 but for me that is too big a risk. 12 – 14 is the range for him I think.

Troy Menzel
DOB: 22/09/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 77

Those who have seen a lot of Menzel love him and rate his potential through the roof. That potential comes with a massive risk given he had LARS surgery to repair his knee previously. LARS has fallen out of favour especially with younger athletes because it seems to greatly increase the chances of it happening again. Also if you have had LARS chances are strong that you would be unable to have a conventional operation if the injury reoccurred. Menzel tweaked his knee in the Central Districts finals loss and whilst it appears as though it was nothing serious it does drive home the major concerns with him. Troy is also the brother of Daniel who has also been beset with injury problems throughout his AFL career to date. So there is every chance that Troy could end up a player who never reaches his full potential because of injury issues. If I was picking for a team in the first round that sort of risk scares the bejezus out of me. For that reason I think he goes to one of the two teams with multiple first round picks and squads good enough to take the risk on him – GWS and Collingwood. Gold Coast at 12 is also a possibility.

Menzel stepped into the medium forward spot vacated by Mayes and he started with a bang against Tasmanian and the NT kicking 15 goals 1 behind in those games. He then suffered a hamstring injury (could be a theme for his career) and missed the rest of the Champs. He came back after the Champs though and finished the year strongly for Central Districts in the SANFL which would have reassured the recruiters to some degree (at least until he had another tweak).

Comparisons are regularly made to Steve Johnson and Alan Didak and if you watch him play you can definitely see them as being warranted. Menzel is a mobile medium forward with great goal sense who seems to read the game just that much better and quicker than those around him. He knows what is going to happen before it does and he adjusts whilst before others have a chance to react. He can get up the field and win it in the midfield although like Johnson and Didak I see him doing this on a spot rather than full time basis. He is most dangerous as a goal scorer and the team that picks him up would not want to inhibit that by playing him too far back.

He has very nice hands overhead and is an excellent contested mark for his size. He is not a big leaper for the ball but rather judges the ball in the air exceptionally well and cleverly uses his body to nudge and make room for himself to mark. For someone his size he is surprisingly good from behind having an array of tricks that allow him to protect the drop zone or keep the man from influencing the contest.

Speaking of tricks he is a proponent of many of the dark arts of ball control around goal. He knows where the goals are and how to get the ball there. That can be by a banana, an around the corner kick, bouncing it along the ground or via a set shot. Whichever way he does it he is very good at finding the middle gap between the sticks. He is a left footer with pretty good but not textbook technique. On his set shot he has a bit of a high release but he kicks down the line of the ball very well. His technique is nowhere near similar but he has that sort of Saad directness of his kick for goal. On the run he is also a dead eye dick and I would probably put him behind only Mayes in this regard from this draft class. He has good feel on his field kicks and excellent vision. Going into 50 he leads his forwards excellently and puts it where they can get it and the opposition can’t. I would say he is up there with the best kicks into 50 in this draft.

Athletically he is a bit of a mixed bag. I don’t think he is a big jump nor does he have high top end speed. In NFL parlance he is quick but not fast. He is very agile though and makes good use of his elusiveness during games. He is a swerver rather than a stepper through traffic. His endurance is solid but needs some work to get it up to AFL standards. He is not a particularly solid guy but his body control and strength in the contest belie that and as he bulks up I think he could be a real handful even for AFL guys bigger than he is.

Overall this is a very smart footballer who without the injury concerns should be right at the pointy end of this draft. As it is I would have him falling somewhere in the middle to late first rounds and the team who gets him will be praying for his hugely risky knee to turn out like Selwood’s hugely risky knee.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 13 –Gold Coast

There is a lot of talk for Simpson here and he is just the type of player Clayton loves but really how many of the same type of player do you want? Personally I would either look for either a KPD or a big inside midfielder that can throw his weight around and protect the smaller guys. I have gone with Stringer here and I think his ability to play up forward would be very handy early in his career and he could move to the midfield in a year or two and provide that big body. Lonergan is another I like here.

Jake Stringer
DOB: 25/4/94 Ht: 191 Wt: 94

I am sure Stringer is well and truly sick of questions being asked and doctors probing his leg but that is the big issue with him. If he gets back full confidence and movement in his leg without any complications then Stringer should have a very good AFL career. If he doesn’t though he could be out of the competition in three years. That is the risk. Out of all the possible top ten picks he and Menzel would present as the greatest risks and teams will be cautious with him especially when he has openly admitted having issues throughout the year. For those who don’t know Stringer badly broke his leg early last year and has been slowly working back.

Stringer is likely to start his AFL career up forward as a third tall. Down the track though expect him to move into the midfield. There will be a few teams at the pointy end of the draft who will be dreaming of getting the next Jobe Watson or Josh Kennedy. He has the potential to be a key position sized inside midfielder who can just outmuscle those around him and then go forward and be a really effective forward. To get there though he needs to regain his explosiveness. It is slowly coming back perhaps but he is still a way off what he was before the injury. He tested for pace and agility at the Combine (not endurance) and whilst he was in the bottom half of each I thought his results were not as bad as they might have been especially the 20m time.

Stringer played mostly through the middle at the Champs and in all honesty was pretty ordinary. I would have had him behind at least Whitfield, Wines and Crouch for influence for Vic Country. He looked a bit out of shape and lumbered a lot, lacking pace and agility. Credit to him though he did cover a lot ground and pushed himself when it would have been easier not to given his fitness level. In an under he is not particularly clean but is such a strong body that he makes room and gives himself chances to claim the ball. With the lack of mobility he has tended to straight line the clearances when going for the ball and getting to the ball was often half the battle with him. When he did get to the ball he rarely came out the other side but he is very strong over the ball and that gave him time to get it away. He was too big for most of the under 18s to handle effectively and as he develops even more, it could be very much the same at AFL level. He might struggle a bit initially because of the step up in strength of his opposition but as he builds himself up more he should be fine. Prior to his injury he used to bull through tackles a bit more than he does at the moment. At the Champs I noticed that he would often feel tackles and go with it a bit more than he used to. As he gets his confidence back in his leg this may change.

Skills-wise, Stringer is reasonable but maybe not much more than that. He seems to have good awareness of where everyone is when in tight but his handballing can be a bit hit and miss. He looks very confident with the ball in hand and can handball off with either hand but he tends to miss a few handballs he should make. He is a right foot kick with a good style. He is not the longest kick in the draft but he does have reasonable penetration and pretty good ability to hit targets when he has a bit of time. One of his most effective kicks is a little around the corner punch kick which is quick and effective and with which he tends to hit targets very well. Up forward he is usually a reliable shot for goal although he can have the occasional off day.

As a forward he is a handful. He is like a bigger version of Tom Rockliff or a smaller version of Jonathan Brown. That is a strong, not hugely athletic player who is good overhead, leads strongly for the ball and can overpower defenders in a wrestle. He protects the drop zone very well with his body and judges the ball very well in the air. He is a very smart forward who works hard to get to dangerous spots and once he is there times either the lead or the lean on the opponent very well. His strength is very apparent and if he gets going he can kick big bags. In his first TAC game back from his injury he picked up 9 goals.

Stringer played seniors toward the end of the year and acquitted himself very well. He more than held his own in senior company and had some very good games including a 25 possession game against Box Hill. There were still evidence that his leg might be still troubling him but he was not letting it stop him. People were still noticing a limp on occasions which might be a concern but realistically he did not have a particularly smooth running style before the injury and people could be noticing an awkward gait on what is his normal style. He is tends to take short strides to get up to speed and this can look a bit awkward as well.


Pick 14 – Greater Western Sydney

With all the concessions GWS have received they have an abundance of talent across every line and there was ever a team who could select for need it is them. The one area where they lack a little is at KPD especially with the loss of Hombsch. It is such an evident gap that I am going to be shocked if they don’t use either 12 or 14 on a KPD and I would be unsurprised if they came out of the draft with two new KPDs.

Tom Clurey
DOB: 23/3/94 Ht: 192 Wt: 83

I am falling into line on having Clurey pretty high but in all honesty it would not surprise me if he fell in this draft and if that happened it would be hard to argue against that. I watched him play four games at the Champs and I think he was beaten by his man in three of them. I would have given him the points against Bourke from Qld but I had Flaherty, Boyd and O’Brien getting the better of him. Each of those guys were the main opposition target in those games and whilst he did well in patches he was caught out pretty regularly.

Where I thought Clurey did well was when he has the ability to zone off a bit. When he could he showed good judgment when to fly and when to stay down and he did a great job at cleaning up at the back when Country would have otherwise have been in trouble. He is not a great mark overhead but he is solid for a backman and is a good spoil of the ball. When the ball is on the ground I thought he showed nice clean hands and the ability to collect and come away with the ball. He has good endurance and he regularly covered a lot of ground in defense. If he can get to an AFL team which emphasis zone play at the back rather than man on man plays I think he could do very nicely. Carlton under Malthouse might be one team who might suit his strengths and help cover the weaknesses.

His weaknesses most often became evident in man on man situations. He can overcommit and tends to bite a bit and as a consequence struggles to keep up with smarter, quicker players. He also is a bit shorter than is ideal for an AFL KPD and although he is a reasonable jump he did struggle a bit with taller players. At AFL level pretty much everyone is going to be taller than him or quicker than him or both. The tendency to overcommit to the man would also see him unable to play on medium forwards at AFL level as I could see them turning him inside out pretty easily. That was done on occasion at the Champs by a few more marginal medium forward prospects.

Much to my surprise he went under 3 secs in the 20m at Combine and that thus showed more pace than I expected him to have. He does not play with that kind of pace at the moment but any team looking at him would be reassured that the pace is there if they can teach him to be a bit smarter about the way he plays. His agility testing was also massively better than I was expecting being in the top 20% of those tested and very good for a KD. When you combine those results with his elite endurance results (the best beep of 15.1 on a very hot day and 3rd in the 3km) and pretty good jumps then you would have to classify him as one of the stars of the combine. The one negative was that he measured a bit shorter than advertised which was not helpful.

Going forward, there is a bit to like with Clurey. I think he is a very good decision maker who usually plays within himself coming out from the back. That is not a bad thing as coaches usually like risk adverse decisions. With that said he can hit targets in traffic and if needed he will go long. He often took the kick ins for Country and whilst he was not the longest kick at the Champs he was reasonable and pretty accurate. He is not a back who you immediately notice for his length or his hurt factor but he gets quite a bit of the ball and is efficient in his use. He is not a big run from defense guy having a somewhat awkward bounce but he does work to space to present as an option for teammates to use. If I am a team this is an area where I like the look of what he can give you.

Another positive for me was how he marshaled the backline for Country. He was the general at the back and directed his fellow defenders around the park. When he had to go he went and he read the play and where everyone should be well. I think he showed himself to be a very smart defender and one I would expect to pick up the nuances of new schemes he was asked to play. I have not seen anything much of him up forward but I understand that he is also very handy forward of centre and there are some who think if he had played there more this year particularly at the Champs then we could easily have been talking about him in competition to Jaksch as the first KPF to be taken this year.

I think Clurey is a bit away physically from playing in the AFL but he should fill out fine and he has the tools to start as a third tall who is given a license to zone off and read and react. Teams would be encouraged by the thought that this is a guy who has the engine to go with the hard running forwards out there who many KPDers struggle with.


Pick 15 – North Melbourne

North have continued to develop a good young group across the park but I think they could still use a bit of class especially coming off half back. Colquohoun is a guy I think could really work for them and help set up their mids going forward really nicely. He is also capable of doing a job defensively which I expect would be a must for Scott. On the day I could see Towers being the one to be taken here.

Sam Colquohoun
DOB: 20/12/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 73

I have to be honest here and say that it has taken me a long time to get over my prejudices against Colquohoun. Going into the Champs I did not rate him particularly highly and all along the way I tended to discount what he was doing and achieving on the park. Bumping him up the order a little but still having him solidly in the mid second round. After going back and looking at the tape again though I have finally admitted that the kid can play and I have entrenched him firmly in the first round. A lot of people still see him as a pick in the 20s or 30s and I can see the reasoning I just have come full circle now and don’t agree with it.

At the Champs, SA played Colquohoun as the loose man in defense and he excelled in that role. He was the SA MVP, made All Australian and collected an absolute swag of disposals averaging 28.4 possessions per game across the Champs. He was a key to their go forward and a lot of the good play from SA this year started with Colquohoun at the back.

He did not get any senior games for Central Districts in the SANFL and despite Central Districts being a bit of a powerhouse the last few years I was a bit surprised about that. That didn’t stop him from having a significant impact though. Colquohoun played a fair bit as a tight defender and showed some good ability as a stopper. After the Champs though the reins were released more onto the wing where he had greater freedom. He played all four games for Central Districts Reserves in the final series and averaged 26 possessions across those games looking good in a wing role.

Colquohoun is a great read of the play in defense and reads the ball and play as well any defender available this year. He plays the angles and gets to where the ball is going just that bit quicker than others around him. He understands the game both defensively and offensively and as a consequence he can find it with startling ease.

A feature of his game at the Champs was his kicking coming out of defense. He took all the kick ins for SA and showed a nice long kick. Around the ground he demonstrated a variety of kicks over various lengths showing good decision making skills and a nice feel. He has a nice low punch kick which he brings out of his trick bag not infrequently and whilst it can be very effective he does leave it a bit short on occasions. The balance on his kicking is very good and I would have little doubt about his ability to transfer his kicking skills to the AFL. He is a smart enough player to work out how to get the time and space he needs to get his kick away and has enough power in his leg to get it there ahead of the opposition player. He makes kicking look easy and you wonder how come all players are not doing the same.

Calquohoun’s first, second and third options are usually to try and kick the ball. As a consequence when he has to handball it is often as an afterthought when he is in trouble and it looks like a mess. He is a bit of a proponent of the suicide handball. This is particularly the case when he is pressured which I am sure he will be more at the next level. Under pressure he can get a bit flustered and his execution goes out the window. This will need to be addressed in the AFL and from what I have seen I think it should be able to coached out of him. He is capable of pulling out a good attacking handball and he can be a good quick and decisive decision maker. A few tweaks might be required to his mindset but this is not something I would let stop me from drafting him.

His height is a bit of a concern but he does play big and he is a pretty good mark of the ball for his height. Weight is obviously another issue but he has been putting on weight throughout the year and I don’t think he will have problem keeping weight on once he is in an AFL environment. His endurance is reasonable and although he does seem to lack top end pace he does have a nice burst which he throws in every now and then. He is a capable tackler but his role is not one which lends itself to gaudy tackle numbers. If he gets his hands on an opposition player I would be comfortable backing him to make the tackle.

At the back he is not a big carrier of the ball more of a find and kick the ball to the next man in the line kind of player. He could be a zone buster if used right. Defensively he needs to get a bit stronger but with a bit more bulk I think that will come. His smarts should also allow him to compensate for his less than elite pace but I would be using him on a lesser forward if I could. Overall I would be developing him as a weapon from defense rather than a stopper.

One of the big problems I hear about him a lot is that he is a very outside player and does not win his own ball. I personally don’t think he is as bad as made out and if he needed to focus on this area I think he could improve. With the roles he plays though I am not sure he ever is going to really need great inside skills. He will be a receiver and designated kicker in those kinds of set ups and that is a specialist role in itself. I also don’t see his inside game being any worse than Macrae’s and his kicking, speed and game smarts all compare pretty well with a guy many of those same people have in the top 10 or close to.


Pick 16 – Geelong

Geelong are another team that likes to either go hard for a guy they particularly rate or they sit back and pick up a faller. At 16 I have a faller coming to them in O’Rourke and I am sure if he were there they would take him. Geelong need to keep replenishing their small/medium players and O’Rourke would certainly meet the requirements. I also see Colquohoun and Simpson as real chances here.

Jonothan O’Rourke
DOB: 21/4/94 Ht: 184 Wt 73

Emma Quayle has O’Rouke in her top 5 and I am not discounting his chances of going there but for me that would be massively overpaying for him. Those rating him at 5 see him as an inside ball winner with great spread and an elite kick. Personally I think he shows great spread but I am not convinced of the other two elements.

I see O’Rourke as an inside receiver who benefited a great deal from the heavy lifting done by the likes of Viney. He is not a very big guy and does not work through the traffic to win the ball himself very much. He does it a bit but it is not a facet of his game which I would consider very strong. When he gets the ball in tight situations he gets flustered and is definitely not one who seems to have that bit of extra time to make decisions. His priority seems to be to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible and hitting targets is an afterthought. He does not ride contact he just rids himself of the ball.

By hand he has pretty quick hands but looks to go backwards a lot or to a player with the opposition sweating on him. His handball style can look pretty awkward at times and the ball hits the ground a lot. In the AFL with players being that much quicker and stronger I have serious concerns about whether O’Rourke’s game will stand up to the pressure, particularly the handball part of it. As it is now he flinches when he hears footsteps and he needs to address that before it becomes too ingrained.

By foot he is better although I still would not put him in the elite category by a long way. His decision making at times leaves quite a bit to be desired and I could see a lot of the kicks he gets away with now being cut out in the AFL. He will pull out a good flat kick every now and then but more often his kicks have a bit too much loop for my liking. I acknowledge that he has an elite DE% but to me that is deceptive. If the ball goes 35m to a contest it is considered effective and O’Rourke goes with quite a few of those even when that is not the best option. On shorter kicks his kicks are also just getting there or are getting there on the bounce and these are considered effective where I think they will not end up being effective in the AFL. His set shot is not as accurate as you would like and his goal sense is probably only average for a midfielder.

Once he gets away from the clearance though O’Rourke is a great worker and spreads really well into space. He will link up and will push himself immediately after making a pass to be available again if needed. He gut runs well and from watching him play I would think he had one of the better tanks in this year’s draft. It is this ability to get into space and provide a link that he will build his AFL career. I see O’Rourke as a Joel Corey / Nigel Lappin type guy who is not really an elite player but at his best could be an important element in a premiership side. Both Corey and Lappin were not the most skillful or the greatest ball winners but they were receivers and provided excellent safety valves.

At the Champs O’Rourke played that similarly link in the chain role receiving the ball from the clearance winners and getting it to the guys who could use it well. He looked for Macrae a great deal when he got the ball and fed him when he possibly could. Viney was the clearance winner and Macrae was the guy who made things happen. O’Rourke showed he could get the ball but too me he looked to lack a bit of class and had significant issues which gave me cause for concern about whether he would have a smooth transition to the AFL.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 17 – Fremantle

Fremantle have tried desperately to get a KPF the last two years and I think it’s time to go the draft route for one. Shaw and O’Brien are the two that I would be targeting if I was Fremantle and when in doubt go with the local boy. They would have had a lot of opportunity to look at Shaw and make a call on him and following what they do here could be an excellent indicator of his likely success.

Mason Shaw
DOB: 15/1/94 Ht: 198 Wt: 87

Coming into the year I had great interest in Shaw and was hoping against hope that the Lions would be in a position to grab him in the draft. Now nine months on I am hoping we pass on him. For someone of his talent he has been a major disappointment this year and to me just does not look like he has the skill set to succeed at AFL level. One big thing in his favour though is that he can kick goals and bags of them. Physically he is also a good match for the AFL so some team is going to take a punt on him and at the moment I find it hard to judge whether that will be sooner or later.

Shaw is a full forward who plays some ruck on occasion. At AFL level I think it’s highly likely that he will play the same positions. In the ruck he is regularly outbodied even against the moderate ruck talent he faced at the Champs this year and against AFL standard rucks he is likely to be barely competitive. If he is going to play as a second ruck in the AFL I would expect that the team that drafts him is going to need to put significant work into his ruck skills and his strength work. At the moment he probably suits a team with a dominant ruckman who needs only short bursts of relief.

As a full forward Shaw is a great proponent of the stretch mark. He judges the ball very well in the air and positions his body to keep his opponent under control and use his height to mark. He frequently plays from behind. When he plays in front or is in a wrestle with the ball coming in he is often maneuvered under the ball, perhaps a little too easily given his size. He plays very much like Mitch Clark did for the last couple of years at the Lions where he basically only wants the ball kicked onto his head and refuses to lead. As Clark found out that kind of thing does not work at AFL level. With that said a true strength of his game is his soft hands above his head and if he can get a shot at the ball he is a pretty good mark.

Shaw’s leading up forward is very poor. He does not lead for the ball nearly enough and when he does there are no repeat efforts. He is slow off the mark and takes a while to get up to full speed and full speed is not very impressive. Agility wise he seems to have lost quite a bit since last year when he seemed fairly elusive for a big forward. Now he often looks like a ruck playing up forward with the turning circle of a semi-trailer. I am not sure what is going on there but work definitely needs to be done on it. Given his lack of speed, agility and repeat leads he rarely if ever has separation from the man marking him and consequently is pretty easy to spoil. His poor leading and lack of scope to improve it athletically is what causes me great concern about whether Shaw will ever be much of an AFL player.

When he gets a shot at goal Shaw is a very good finisher. He has a bit of a low hold on the ball but his mechanics are consistent and good and he kicks through the ball nicely. His accuracy on his medium range shots is particularly good. Around the ground he uses chips and short punching kicks mostly and he is very effective with those. When he goes longer he has reasonable penetration but is not the best weight of a kick and they are prone to going over the targets head or falling short (most often the latter from what I have seen).

If the ball is not delivered to him on a platter Shaw does not seem to make much effort to get involved in the play. He bludges around behind the pack quite a lot in those situations and occasionally picks up a goal through good luck which flatters his goal tally. His body language is often poor and he provides little or no chase and defensive pressure when the ball comes out. At AFL level he will be hammered for this by the coaching staff, his teammates and the supporters. It could well be that his lack of pressure results from poor endurance and whilst that could well be a factor it looks more like a lack of effort to me.

It is often said that Shaw seems to be just playing out the year and waiting to be taken by and AFL club and that may be the case. He rarely has to do a great deal to score goals in the juniors. He is capable of dominating and has stepped up in the grand finals the last two years kicking big bags to help his team get over the line. I do think he is going to be in for a rude shock when he gets to the next level though. His development this year was probably not helped by Mitch Brown of West Coast breaking his jaw early in the season. In the end he managed only 10 games in the Colts and nothing higher than that. He finished with 32 goals from those games which is a good return but the manner in which he went about it was not that impressive.

With all that said someone is going to take Shaw because of his size and underlying talent but there are a LOT of question marks surrounding him. Personally I would not want to take him too early but if a team is convinced that he has the tools to dominate at the next level and just needs a kick up the behind to do that then it would not surprise if someone takes him earlier than his performance this year warranted.


Pick 18 – Collingwood

With three selections in the first round this year I think Collingwood will likely try and get some height with at least one of the picks they have. Up forward is probably where they most need help and I think O’Brien has the most talent of anyone likely to be available here. He is still a bit raw but Collingwood have a very strong development program and I am sure they will back themselves to get the most out of him.


Tim O’Brien
DOB: 28/3/94 Ht: 193 Wt: 80

It’s a bit hard to judge just where O’Brien is likely to go. I think he has as much talent as pretty much any of the key position forwards this year but he is still pretty raw. As a consequence he could go pretty high if a team backs themselves in or alternatively he might fall a bit as teams go with surer bets. I can’t see him getting into the top 10 but anywhere from 11 to 30 would not surprise me.

O’Brien came down from the country this year and has shown really good development over the year playing as a key position. Up until this time he had predominantly been a ruckman and even now he still does some ruck work. He has played down back and up forward but his work up forward has been what has impressed me the most. When Menzel went down for SA, O’Brien became the main target up forward and he thrived with the extra ball coming his way. Not only did he kick goals himself but he created goals for others around him and dragged defenders freeing up space for guys like McDonough to work.

The ruck influence is still very evident in his play up forward and whilst some of that will need to be coached out of him some of it is very positive. One of the things which was very evident for me when watching him play is how quickly he recovers after flying for the ball. Like a good ruck as soon as the ball hits the ground he becomes another rover and gets in there and mixes it up. He is not super clean (he is a little scrappy if I am honest) with the ball on the ground but he is reasonable and he creates lots of opportunities for himself and others with his ability to go from marking to roving so quickly. He is very agile for a big guy (3rd overall at Combine in the agility test) and that is evident when he works in close from a spillage. He creates time for himself with his elusiveness and is adept at getting away a nice quick handball from a spillage situation. He was far superior to the key position defenders he played on this year when the ball was on the ground.

In the air he has very strong hands, not always soft but they are strong. He gets more than his fair share of marks but even when he doesn’t he controls the ball to ground excellently and gives he and his small brigade the best chance of scoring from the contest. He has a nice leap and is very good at taking stretch marks up where it starts to become difficult to spoil for a defender. Another excellent feature I think from his rucking duties is body control in the air. He is not afraid to fly in a contested situation and when he does he retains balance and control throughout.

Where his inexperience is pretty evident at the moment is in his leading. He gets caught behind a bit too much and is a bit too easily blocked. He needs to learn to work around the defender better and start to use his athleticism to greater effect. His repeat leads are not there enough just yet and he is not always leading to the best spots. He is not bad in this regard and with experience and coaching I don’t doubt he will come good. He has excellent athleticism and a really good burst of pace off the mark. Combine that with his marking and agility and he should be a really big handful once he works it all out.

His kicking for goal is pretty good. He has a nice relaxed approach, a low drop and not a lot of moving parts. Overall his style is quite good and the accuracy of his set shot is fine. From play his goal sense is probably only average and he does need a bit of work on his snaps. He is not terrible but neither would I say he was particularly good.

O’Brien does need to work on his endurance a bit and when he does I expect his leading could take a significant jump and his work up the ground could become a feature. During the Champs when he worked up onto the wing I was impressed with his ability to take chop out marks and make good quick decisions.

The player he reminds me of most at the moment Sam Reid of Sydney. Like Reid he plays taller than he measures (although both measure fine) and is a very difficult match up if they are on their game. He also has a pretty similar build to Reid at the moment. He has a fairly lean build but a nice set of shoulders on him. His strength is good for his relative lack of bulk and I think there is little doubt he will fill out well once he gets into a full time environment.


Pick 19 – Collingwood

The Collingwood recruitment staff do a great job of not trying to be too smart and just taking that talent that falls into their lap. I have Simpson falling to them here and although his type would not be a priority they would be smart enough to take him if he was here. I am sensing that Garlett could fall to them in the real thing and if he does I would be shocked if they didn’t pick him up and turn him around.

Josh Simpson
DOB: 9/2/94 Ht:184 Wt: 73

Given we are coming off a season where Lewis Jetta has really announced himself I am tipping there should be a fair bit of interest in Simpson who is probably the closest facsimile to Jetta in this draft. Simpson might not have quite the top end pace that Jetta does just yet but he has enough pace to be very dangerous and the rest of his game is very similar. Like Jetta he is a predominately outside winger who can get forward and kick goals.

Last year Simpson left his home 500km north east of Perth and went to school in Adelaide. He played for SA at the Champs as a small forward and did pretty well. After talking with his coaches he decided to move back to WA for his final year of under 18s where he could both work on his football and be near his family for the year prior to being drafted. It appears he was not necessarily homesick but merely recognised that after this year he would likely be spending a lot of time away from his family and decided to make the most of it while he could. He is close to his family but says all the right things about looking forward to going to whoever picks him. He did pretty well in SA last year and I think the go home risk is probably not too high with him.

On the park Simpson is an outside receiver with good run and carry. He is an elusive runner with both good swerve and a big sidestep when he pulls it out. When you watch him play one of the interesting things is the away he attacks the gaps between opposition players. He splits the players and slides through with pace and deceptive strength. Simpson is not a big guy and probably never will be overly large but he has good balance and core strength and uses that to good effect on the park. That somewhat unexpected strength combined with his elusiveness make him a very difficult proposition to tackle.

Simpson has a very natural kicking style and he uses touch kicks a lot. Is is capable of drilling in a low worm burner but tends not to bring this out too often. Despite what you might think given his build, Simpson is one of the longer kicks in this draft capable of kicking goals from 60 metres out. Even at 55 he doesn't overkick the ball and seems to do it pretty easily without too much effort. With his set shots he tends to guide the ball through the goal, working it around with feel rather than kicking through it like goal kicking coaches tend to prefer. He is a pretty reasonable shot for goal so I would not be messing with him too much. If it is not broke don't bloody fix it. Simpson is a natural right footer but he is one of the better in this draft on his non-preferred. He has pretty good length and weight on his left when he is forced to use it.

I would like Simpson to have gotten a few more possessions this year and he does tend to drift in and out of games. This could be a function of his endurance which could use some work (although it is not terrible now by any means). When he is involved in the game he works hard and looks like a pretty good gut runner capable of sustaining a run. He can fade out pretty quickly though. It took Jetta a few years to build his running power in the WAFL before he was picked up by Sydney and I think similarly it might take Simpson a preseason or two before we see the best of him. In his Colts games this year he managed only 14 disposals per game which is not a lot for someone of his talent. In fairness I should mention that he did break his collar bone in April this year and this interrupted his season a bit although he did show good dedication rehabbing his injury and returning sooner than expected. He is not a big defensive pressure kind of player at the moment although he does pick up a few tackles each game. As he ups his endurance I think this area of his game will improve.

Overall I like Simpson quite a lot. He is a natural footballer who looks like he is willing to work to improve his game. If I was looking to add a Lewis Jetta type run and kicker then I would certainly be looking Simpson's way. On talent he should go in the top 20 and I would be surprised if he fell below that.


Pick 20 – Adelaide

There is every chance that Adelaide will lose this pick but whilst they have it I will give them Towers who I think would be very handy in their group. They could use a bit of pace on the outside and he could add another dimension to their side.

Dean Towers
DOB: 4/5/90 Ht: 190 Wt: 84

Towers is a guy who would have been on not even the most thorough team’s radar as a junior. He was playing in the country and was not even in his local team’s best on a regular basis. Through drive and consistent effort though he has made himself the 2012 Fothergill Medallist and likely high draft pick. The Fothergill Medal has been a good guide in recent years to VFL players who can make an impact at AFL level and recent winners have included Saad, Hibberd, Barlow, Nahas whilst Aaron Davey and Firrito have also won the award.

Towers is a wing / flanker who has the ability to break the game open with his speed in the way that Isaac Smith and Jetta do for their sides. With the AFL being very much a copy cap league I expect teams will be looking to adopt what worked for the grand finalists and one of the thing that worked very well for each of them was the outside speed that those two mature aged recruits provide. Towers has the same kind of speed as both of those although he probably plays a bit more power-based style than Smith and Jetta who are bit more finesse-based. All of them can break the lines though and once they are gone there are very few in the league who are going to run them down.

Towers has a big side step on him which can make him difficult to tackle but he does lose a fair bit of momentum when he uses it. He has a bit of a swerve on him but he is not able to make the opposition miss cleanly like Jetta in particular can. His swerve is good enough to get players off balance though and he has the power to break arm tackles and get through that way. Once he is into space he has an easy long stride that does not look particularly fast but definitely is. His top end speed is up there with anyone. He clocked a 2.89 in the 20m sprint at Combine after having an only average first 5m. His last 15 metres were quicker than anyone other than Adam Saad by my rough calculations. He also finished 6th in the 30m repeat sprints and showed like in games that he can sustain his speed over distance.

At the Combine he also excelled in the jumps and broke Coad’s 15 year old record in the standing jump with an 85cm leap. In games he is a good mark and often I think surprises opposition with his pace and jump. He tends to take a lot of cut out marks from short to intermediate kicks where he lurks a little off a likely target and then closes very quickly and out-jumps the target after the ball is kicked. He also doesn’t mind a fly and is pretty good in pack mark situations. He is courageous and will go for marks knowing he is going to get crunched or come down hard. He is a pretty good judge of the ball in the air and has reasonable hands.

Kicking wise he is solid but I would not have him in the same league as Jetta, or Smith either probably. He has pretty decent penetration but not the same as those guys. I have seen him put a wet ball through from outside 50 so he is not lacking in distance it is just that he is not a consistently long kick. He does tend to go long as his first option if he doesn’t run into range himself. On the run he is a pretty good kick at pace and will usually find a man or a contest at the very least. He loves to run into the 50 either with the ball in hand or to mark and when he does he is an efficient finisher on the run. His set shot is solid and he does tend to wind up a bit when he needs distance. There is definite room for improvement with his kicking but he has been improving in this area quite a bit and there is no reason to think that will not continue.

By all accounts Towers is very coachable and learns very quickly. He not only takes feedback but will seek it out and then work very hard to implement it. When he came to the VFL last year he used to download the game tape to take home and watch and then prepare questions for the coach on what he was doing and how he could improve. This is a kid who has come from country football two seasons ago to making the Victorian VFL side earlier this year and mostly it has been done through dedication and hard work. At the next level he will need to improve his engine a bit but from what he has shown I would back him in.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 21 – Collingwood

This is where it gets interesting for Collingwood. They have cut two rucks and really only have Witts backing up Jolly and surely must have a plan to bring in more cover. They are in the premiership window and they surely would not want to jeopardise their chances by not having decent ruck coverage. For that reason I have them taking Hannath here and not risking that he might be there at 39. Collingwood might well be okay with either Currie or Hannath and are prepared to wait until 39 to take one of those but personally I take the young guy who looks like the best ruck prospect outside of Grundy this year and who is young enough to develop a lot more and old enough to come in and play right away if needed.

Jack Hannath
DOB: 9/7/91 Ht: 201 Wt: 97

If I am looking for a ruck this year and I miss out on Grundy the only other guy I consider taking is Hannath. For me he has the most potential of any of the rucks playing in the state leagues and could come in and do what Giles did for GWS last year. Admittedly he might be a year or two behind Giles but he is younger and plays a similar sort of role. He has grown a couple of centimetres since his junior days and those couple of centimetres make a material difference I think when assessing a ruck. The difference between 199 and 201 does not sound like much but it is for a number 1 ruck. Hannath is also much more physically ready now than he was as an 18 year old.

There are a few teams out there who need a back-up ruck who can come in and play straight away and Hannath is one who could do that. He is also still only 21 and is still developing both physically and with his game. He only really established himself at SANFL level this year and he continued to develop over the course of the year. There is every reason to think there is still plenty of development left in him and that he could become a legitimate starter or perhaps even as a 2nd ruck / KP. I don't rate the ruck talent this year and if you can grab a guy who is already a couple of years down the track development wise and looks like he could be a legit starter then why not grab him.

Hannath is a mobile ruckman who gets around the park very nicely. For his around the ground effort he probably does not get the possessions that he should but like many possession rucks that could click for him in the next year or two and result in a significant jump in production. For me the important thing at the moment is that he looks good around the ground and that the effort is there. Put him into a full time environment with dedicated coaches and I think the improvement continues at apace.

His ruckwork is good and is something which improved a lot over the year. He went up against some pretty good ruck talent in the SANFL and he won more than he lost. After the tap he recovers quickly and becomes a midfielder who scraps pretty well. He is not hugely effective but he does get in there and mix it up. Around the ground he presents nicely as a target and is a pretty good mark of the ball. He managed to take a mark of the round in the SANFL this year which is a pretty good effort from a big ruck. In that mark he got up really nicely on the last line of defence and flew knowing that he was going to fall hard. In the marking contest he recovers quickly if the ball spills and will often react quicker than his opposition. Around the ground his skills are solid and again is improved a lot since his junior days.

There is some talk that he could be a key position defender but really I am not seeing him going down back and matching up one on one with the KPFs of the AFL. He lacks the speed and agility to go with those guys. His speed and agility is okay for a ruck but he is going to look out of his depth if he has to match up with the KPFs who are all going to be quicker and more agile then him. He could potentially play as loose third tall who picked up any ruck who was resting up forward. I do think he would do that role pretty well. There is also some potential for him to play a bit up forward where his height and marking ability could worry quite a few teams.


Pick 22 – Western Bulldogs

If the Bulldogs want to continue to add to their collection of guys who can’t kick and make a matching pair at the back with Talia then Stringer has to be a big chance here. As it is I have Plowman falling and I think if they had a chance to get him here they certainly would. I do not expect him to fall this far in the real thing but this is one who I don’t rate but everyone else does and I have let him drop down my list accordingly.

Lachlan Plowman
DOB: 11/9/94 Ht: 192 Wt: 84

Everyone is telling me how Plowman is the best key position defender available this year and how he is such a great prospect perhaps even to the point of being taken third overall. My problem is that guys his size and with his athletic limitations do not play key defence anymore. People point to the likes of Glass and Scarlett as being about the same height and I will tell you it is the 195cm guys like McKenzie and Lonergan or Taylor who are actually taking the primary targets and these guys are effectively now playing as third talls. A third tall is what I see Plowman playing as for his career and if I am drafting I don't spend a top 10 pick on a third tall unless he is an attacking weapon and that is not really what Plowman is.

Plowman has had a serious elbow injury this year which has kept him out of the Champs and restricted him to only 5 games in the TAC. In those 5 games he finished in the best on 4 occasions so he certainly made them count. How successful Plowman is at AFL level could well be decided by the style of play of the team that picks him up. If he is allowed to play as the loose man in defence or in a read and react zone like Collingwood had under Malthouse then he could do very well. If he is asked to play an accountable role on key position forwards he will struggle. He is very confident in his own abilities and plays with flair. The extent to which his game will convert to the AFL will remain to be seen.

As a loose defender he judges the ball very well in the air and shows excellent judgment about when to mark the ball and when to spoil. Added to his spoiling repertoire is a very intelligent tap down which he uses if he has a teammate in a position to receive it. In that case he controls those taps very nicely. His hands over his head are pretty good but I would not say they are much more than that. His decision making on when to mark the ball and when to not, does make them seem better than they are and he times his cut-outs well enough to very often avoid contact. Below the knees they are better especially for someone who is nominally a key position.

Going forward he doesn't mind a gallop with the ball in hand but I think he is going to be in for a rude shock when he hits the AFL. He thinks he is quicker and more elusive than he is. Even at junior level he is not able to beat men all that often with those attributes and often has to resort to his fend. AFL defenders are going to drive through that fend and nail him a lot. He is also not going to be used to the chase that AFL forwards put on and at his pace he is going to run down from behind quite a lot early in his career. The other thing he has in his arsenal is a decent baulk. He sells it well enough but again AFL players are generally less prone to bite than junior forwards.

Skills wise he has some potential although he is a little inconsistent in his execution just yet. He is capable of delivering a nice flat kick to his target but more often than not he tends to wobble his kick to the target at 3/4 strength. Clubs will be confident knowing that he has that flat kick is available but he needs some work to make sure he uses it more often otherwise his kicks will be picked off fairly regularly.

Plowman is a capable close defender at junior level able to go stride for stride with his opposition. Similarly he uses his strength well in body on body contests and moves his opponent under the ball nicely. At senior level against much bigger, stronger and quicker key forwards I just struggle to see him being able to do the same. He may be more suited to playing roles on medium forwards if he has the pace. I think he is a pretty decent prospect but I struggle to rate him in the top 10 based on his physical limitations as a key position.

The above write up was done before I got a look at Plowman’s Combine results and they certainly re-enforced my concerns about his athleticism. He was in the bottom 10% of the 20m results and just outside the bottom 20% in agility. The rest of his results were pretty average. The speed and agility results cause me major concern about whether he will be capable of matching forwards at the next level.


Pick 23 – Sydney

Assuming Tippett is not the pick here Sydney are in a position where they can pretty much wait and just take whoever falls. They do have a few midfielders getting older and although Mitchell is waiting in the wings they could stand to add another decent ball winning midfielder to their squad. Vlastuin and Hrovat are two I think will come into contention and I have gone with Vlastuin because of his better size and ability to play back to start his career. A KP is also not out of the question.

Nick Vlastuin
DOB:19/4/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 86

Vlastuin is being talked up by some as a top 10 selection particularly to Richmond at 9. I don't agree with that ranking myself but Richmond do like to reach for this kind of player (eg Conca a couple of years ago). Vlastuin has a few nice things going for him but also a few inherent limitations which would see him fall to the mid 20s I think were he not the Vic Metro captain. Unfortunately a lot of teams share the bias toward Metro players and he will probably end up going higher than I think he deserves.

Okay first the good. Vlastuin provides a good physical presence no matter where he is playing on the park. He goes in hard and gets the ball and is not afraid to take a hit or two. He is a nice size and should develop into a powerful bodied player who can play the same way at AFL football. Despite lacking a yard of pace he moves through traffic well and to use a NFL term he identifies the seam and attacks it very nicely. He is not a big stepper but he swerves through traffic well enough and takes advantage of those who are not in a position to tackle him effectively. His ability to get through traffic is definitely a strength of his. The other big selling point for him is his leadership. He has captained at every level as far as I am aware and he leads both with actions and words. He was the guy doing the talking in the circle at the Champs and feedback from his coaches have been glowing on his leadership ability. He is also a player who does the team things that open the game up for others.

His kicking is also often talked up as a strength of his. Personally I think it is solid but not near the elite category. He is a right footer who can use his left but is a bit dubious with it. He needs to flatten his kicking out a bit as at the moment he has a bit too much loop. He has good penetration on his kicks and uses his long kicking about 80% of the time. Personally I do not really like his tendency to bomb long to a contest on most occasions. This might get him an effective kick in the stats line but it often does not do his team a lot of good. He needs to lower his eyes and start to pick out targets more in the short to intermediate range. Currently the hurt factor is not there on his kicks and if he starts to pick out targets more this should go up.

By hand he is often more damaging than by foot. He is probably the best exponent of the long handball in this draft and I watched him bring out a 30m ripper at the Champs to hit the man in stride and put him away. In contested situations he has shown nice quick hands and hits the receiver with a chance to use it. With the ball on the ground his hands are soft and he gathers or controls the ball nicely. In defence the ability to collect cleanly and go is an underrated skill and is something I am sure coaches would be interested in. At the back Vlastuin does nicely getting back and cleaning up messes.

Above his head his hands are a bit above average but probably not a lot more than that. His hands often look better than that because he has superior ability to judge the ball in the air and he works well into position to mark the ball. He drifts in front of contests and does not mind flying for the ball if it is warranted. When he flies he controls his body nicely and gives himself every chance to mark the ball. His hands are pretty soft but he does spill his share of marks many of which you would expect him to take.

Athletically is where a lot of the concerns are. Although he does gut run pretty well his tank seems pretty poor for a midfield prospect and given his experience and time in elite programs including the AIS I am inclined to think it always would be relative to other AFL players. He will get better for sure with focus on the problem but I would suggest he would have endurance levels below average and when we are likely moving into an era with capped interchanges that has to be considered. The other issue for him is pace. Although he does do some things nicely at pace he has a pretty low top end speed and looked slow compared to a few forwards he played against at the Champs like Mason Wood for one.

So where will he go? Take a step back and consider that we are dealing with a player who is athletically challenged and played predominately as a small defender at the Champs. When he went into the middle he did so to tag an opposition player as far as I could see and did not have the endurance to play there for extended periods. Then consider where you are going to play him next year. At the moment he does not have the endurance to play in the midfield at AFL level and small forwards are likely to beat him pretty easily for pace at the back. For those issues alone there should be no way he would be considered a top 10 pick.


Pick 24 – Brisbane

Okay no-one can accuse me of favouring the Lions this year given I am out there with all of their picks. With some nice prospects coming through the academy system I think the Lions can swing for the fences a bit with their second and third picks and take the talented but risky picks. If they go small at 8 they have to go tall here and a KPF like O’Brien or a KPD like Stringer are definitely on the cards. If we go tall first up I think Lonergan is a big show here is available. I would also like to think that we might go with Garlett is he were still here but I think it more likely we would pass going on previous form. As it is I have gone with White who is a hugely talented, high risk prospect. Boom or bust but with two AIS KPFs the next two years I think we can afford to take the hit if he busts.

Spencer White
DOB: 22/9/94 Ht: 196 Wt: 85

I tend to get sucked in most years and overhype on at least one key position forward each year. Doboscz and Manson were two last year I had rated highly and both were not even rookied. This year I am onboard with White so be warned. White got the attention of most of the BF faithful with the afl.com article on with the headline "The Next Buddy?" and I have to admit that caused me to take a closer look at him and subsequently his finish to the year. On potential White is up there with any of the key position forwards in this draft. Take out the second half of this year though and his performances were nowhere close to warranting being picked anywhere let alone high.

What a team is going to be buying is a whole bucketful of potential. White is a big powerful athlete who loves to take the game on when he gets it. He had a slow start to the year with his asthma severely limiting his lung capacity. After he had his medication adjusted his performances improved a great deal. He went from 7 goals in his first 5 games to 30 goals in his last 10 and he was one of the most dominant forwards in the TAC in the last 6 weeks of the season. His endurance is still nowhere near good enough for AFL football but at least now teams can see what they will get when he does get it close to required levels. At the combine his beep tests were actually midfield which I took encouragement from although his 3km result was poor.

White has a build a lot like Buddy having great height for a KPF with wide shoulders and slim hips. I think he will end up being more solid than Buddy and will certainly have the build to play AFL football. In addition to size, White has elite athletic capabilities. After getting a late call up he won the running jump this year at Combine getting within 2cm of the record held by Natanui and Brennan and followed that with a fourth in the standing vertical. He doesn't always use his leap a lot in games but when he needs it he can go up and get the ball. At the moment he tends to mistime his jump at the ball and whilst he has improved on that over the course of the year that would be something which could cause teams a minor concern as it is something which is not always the easiest to fix.

His pace is also excellent for a tall guy with him recording a 2.89 in the 20m and showing elite pace off the mark for anyone let alone someone his size. He is often able to get separation seemingly with ease and if he is further up the field he can run away from his opposition. He does need to put his strength, pace and jump together a bit better and more consistently in his game but you have to like the thought of what he could do when and if he does. His lack of endurance has limited his abilities to give repeat leads or work further up the ground much. As that improves it would be easy to see him playing a Buddy styled game. As it currently stands though he operates closer to goal and I see him starting his career as a FF.

He currently has a very limited defensive game and if the ball is not in his area or if it with the opposition he loses interest and tends to stand around a bit doing not much. His endurance has obviously been a limiting factor but his attitude is also a significant contributor and his coaches are going to give him a kick up the butt for not chasing more than a few times in his near future. It is worth noting that his coach has identified his attitude as needing to mature. On the field he does have a tendency to give away more undisciplined frees than you would like to see.

When in his area, White attacks the ball hard and tends to make difficult things look easy. He is exceptionally confident and loves to take the game on. He is not particularly elusive but with his strength and pace he is difficult to tackle. He will frequently run himself into trouble and he does need to focus on picking the times and places for his exuberance. He improved a lot when he focused more on doing the basics well rather than trying to do the extraordinary every time he got the ball. He had the talent to pull off the extraordinary reasonably regularly but sometimes doing the basic things would have been more effective. On the lead he is very difficult to get around for a defender and takes the ball out in front himself where it is virtually impossible for defender to spoil. His hands are huge and he is good both over his head and below his knees.

He has a nice relaxed set shot. His release is a little high but his set shot is pretty accurate. Around the ground he is similarly very relaxed with his kicking and tends to have good feel and he hits his targets well. In front of goal he very much has a full forward's attitude and you can be sure if he gets the ball in range he is going to have a shot. He does not look for his teammates but takes it on his own shoulders to kick the goal even when the percentage play would be to look to give it off.

White needs to be involved in the play more because when he is good things can happen. He is going to need to work on a lot of things but if a team is patient with him they could have an elite forward on their hands. I see him going in the second round simply because there are so many teams are going to be willing to take a punt on someone with the potential that this guy has even with the risks associated with him.

 

[Sunny_]

Same. Looking to set aside a few hours.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 25 - St Kilda

St Kilda’s midfield are getting toward the end and there is a need to build for the next generation. Hrovat offers as much if not more than any other here and he could be a very nice Sam Mitchell style player for them going forward.

Nathan Hrovat
DOB: 7/6/94 Ht: 175 Wt: 79

You have to admire a kid who does not accept defeat and just goes out there and plays so well he demands to be picked. This year that player is Hrovat. For conventional wisdom Hrovat is too short and not athletic enough to compensate. Only a few years ago Hrovat would have had very little chance of being picked but thankfully things have moved on a bit.

This year Hrovat has made every post a winner. He was selected to be Capt of Vic Metro and lead them very well. He was a high possession winner at the Champs (25.2 disposals per game) and made the AA side whilst leading Metro to the title. Due to other commitments he only played 8 TAC games but managed to pick up the Best and Fairest for the Knights. All pretty bloody good for a kid to short and too slow.

Hrovat somewhat because of his size is thought of predominantly as an inside player but he has shown some excellent outside skills this year. He has really worked on his endurance and whilst he tested pretty mid-pack his ability to spread and work the wings is up there with blokes right at the pointy end of this draft. He is smart and gets to good positions to receive and provide an option if needed. He is never going to be a big marking target but he is a good mark for his size and I would back him against guys bigger than himself.

One thing I love about Hrovat is that he does everything at speed. A lot of guys cruise in junior level and then struggle when the pace of the game goes up. Hrovat has been practicing playing at pace this entire year and he does it well. His attack on the ball is first class and his thinking on the go is very good. He plays on quickly and works to link to move the ball quickly very well. He has been playing AFL style football against junior opposition.

Another thing which is very much AFL style is his kicking. He has flattened his kicking out really well and he punches his passes to his targets. He does not have a typical loopy junior kick. He has a reasonable leg on him but tends not to go long very often preferring chips or ¾ strength kicks. His accuracy and decision making is good at those distances and combined with the flatness of his kicks I think will convert to AFL football pretty well. He is strongly right footed. Up forward he doesn’t have the most confident approach to goal and will look to pass off if there is a reasonable option. When he does take the shot he kicks through it well but the accuracy can be a bit variable.

Unlike a lot of guys his size I do not see him starting his AFL career up forward. His goal kicking and goal awareness are not great and his pace is below what you would like for a defensive small forward. At the Combine he did not test well for pace which was not a surprise but his terrible 5m times might have hurt a big. I think he does play quicker than he times and he uses what pace he does have well but even his most optimistic supporter would have to concede his pace as being no more than average.

When on the inside he is a player who will camp at the ruck’s feet and work his way out from there. He has good quick hands and gets the ball to foot in those situations quicker than anyone I can think of in this draft. He is not a big bloke but is strong over the ball and maintains nice balance in the contest. He has good awareness of where everyone is in the contest and this allows him to get the ball out and also feel when a tackler is coming. When tackled he keeps his arms free well and does not panic at first contact. He rides the contact well, maintains balance and gets the ball away nicely. Inside he will also throw himself into tackles and is generally good but is a little prone to bouncing off the really big blokes in there (eg it happened a couple of times at the Champs with Stringer that I noticed).

It’s possible that Hrovat could struggle against the bigger quicker athletes in the AFL but I would tend to back him in given how well he has stepped up to every level so far.


Pick 26 - St Kilda

St Kilda need some defensive height and I am sure they will take a KPD with one of their two picks in this region. Tanner Smith and Rodda are two guys I would consider here and I have gone with Smith largely because he is a Victorian and there would be no go home issues. Corr is another who might be on the cards here by the sounds of it.

Tanner Smith
DOB: 9/3/94 Ht: 196 Wt: 87

Smith is another key position defender with some solid aspects to his game but a big hole as well. How you rate the KPDs this year is going to come down to which of them you think you can fix and which of them you don’t. Smith’s main problem is his kicking.

Smith is right up there with Paparone as having the worst kicking style of any of this year’s crop. To make matters worse his style is variable often changing from one problem to the next between games. In one game I noted how he was getting his head too far over the ball and dropping his eyes too early (McKeever style) and in the next he was leaning too far back on his kicks. He also regularly brings out an appalling high two handed drop which often results in the ball not going where it should do. It looks like he has been working on his kicking style but it certainly hasn’t helped yet and with so much in need of changing there is a big question about whether it will ever be up to average by AFL standards.

In some games, Smith looks like he loses all confidence in himself and either doesn’t want the ball or when he gets it wants a very safe option only. He can appear very awkward with the ball not just by foot but by hand as well. If he is going to be a productive AFL player significant work is going to need to be done on his disposal and decision making.

Smith is regularly described as a shut down defender usually I think because of his deficiencies going forward. I am not sure if that is really the case. It is worth noting that for Vic Country, Clurey was the one who took the primary key forward each game and even when he was being beaten Smith was rarely swapped onto those forwards. It could be said that Smith regularly played on the CHFs but that was not always the case. It is likely though that he will be a CHB rather than full back at AFL level. He has good mobility and endurance and is somewhat leaner than would be ideal for the FB role. I think he will fill out but I doubt he will ever be a particularly huge man.

Smith also has nice pace particularly off the mark and when out and running he can go with most forwards. When it starts to get into a body on body contest though his lack of bulk and strength is evident. He was taught a lesson by Grundy in the short time he was up forward in the VC v SA match and he also struggled with Shaw against WA. I can see a lot of gym time in Smith’s future. When he gets a run at it he does a lot better and is able to get a fist in nicely to spoil either up high or down low. He has great height and good long arms but he does not have much of a leap and so can struggle a bit with really tall athletic targets. Smith also has good agility (and tested that way as well) and is able to recover quickly when needed.

With all the negatives it is worth noting that Smith has shown genuine improvement this year. He is getting forward more and has offered himself as an overlapping runner and marking target on the wing. His marking going forward is good and he keeps his opposition honest with hard running up the field. If I am using him at the moment though I want to have a small wrapping around him to quickly get the hand off because having the ball in his hand is playing with fire.



Pick 27 - Melbourne

Make absolutely no mistake Melbourne got an absolute gift when GWS, GC and Melb got together and conspired to make their own little side deals outside the draft process. The AFL has already made it clear that GWS has open slather to do whatever the hell the like and Melb got Viney in return for overpaying for Hogan. It worked out well for the teams involved even if it did screw everyone else. Am I bitter – yep. Bloody Gubby Allen is still finding ways to screw the Lions. Anyway…..

Jack Viney
DOB: 13/4/94 Ht: 178 Wt: 82

Is head and shoulders the best inside mid in this draft and is exactly the type of player that Gold Coast need for the midfield. He was well worth the number 2 pick it’s just a shame that they didn’t bid for him. Instead he goes to Melbourne at 26. I am very jealous as he would be the kind of player who Brisbane ideally need.

People always talk about Viney’s inside game but tend to overlook his outside skills. Viney is an excellent accumulator of the ball and will rack them up at the next level. He is a kid who works his butt off to spread from clearances and is smart enough to get to good spots. I don’t think he has a natural feel for where to run but he is a smart enough footballer to work it out and then go. He is a big gut runner and taggers at junior level are not able to keep up with him and he tends to get a lot of football that way. This is also a kid who steps up in the big occasions. He was excellent at the Champs when the games were being decided and even going back to last year it is worth noting that he 34 possessions in the TAC GF.

Viney is not a natural endurance athlete but watching him play you can see him turning himself into a runner by sheer force of will. His gut running is as good as I have seen at this level and he runs until he is out of steam. At the moment his first halves are much stronger than his seconds because he has run himself into the ground in the first half. I don’t mind that though and as he continues to work on it the longer into games he can go running to his full capacity. He is a kid who constantly challenges himself to go further and harder and this will stand him in good stead as his career develops.

A lot of inside mids tend to start their careers as poor kicks. This should not be a problem for Viney. He is a left footer who uses it well, particularly in the short to intermediate ranges. He is capable of drilling a nice low kick into his forwards when required. He has reasonable penetration and the weight on his kicks is similarly pretty good without being elite. He is pretty one-sided with his right foot having little penetration or accuracy.

Pace wise Viney is reasonable. He gets up to speed very quickly and shows a nice burst. His does not have the top end of some of the speedsters in this draft but he has the awareness to get the ball away before he is caught. Viney uses his burst of pace very well in tight to charge through contests or through someone trying to tackle him. He is also fairly agile despite his wrecking ball reputation and his agility, pace and strength make his a difficult proposition to tackle. You often hear people talking about putting your head down when you chase and that is literally what Viney does quite often. When he is without the ball and needs an extra effort to chase down a player of the ball the head will go down and he will give it his all. To see that kind of effort would be pretty inspiring for his teammates.

On the inside Viney is an elite talent without question. He is not wedded to any particular ball winning style but will mix it up depending on what works. Sometimes he will start on the outside and attack the contest at pace, sometimes he will sit at the rucks feet. Whatever is going to get him the ball. He reads the ball of the rucks hands very well and has clean quick hands himself. He has excellent awareness of who is around him and excels at getting the ball out to his receivers. As mentioned he is very difficult to tackle and he uses his strength to hold his feet well and does not panic. When he has some momentum going into a contest he will regularly bust tackles, push men off and come out the other side. When an opposition player gets the ball he is a very good tackler and wraps up the man and ball nicely. He has a low centre of gravity and looks like he has done a fair bit of wrestling training in his time.

Viney broke his jaw earlier in the year and was out for 7 weeks which did disrupt his season a bit. Despite that he was one of the players of the Champs and showed all what kind of a player Melbourne is getting. Melbourne need a cultural change and with the clean out underway getting a kid like Viney in will only expedite the transition.


28. Greater Western Sydney

If McBean doesn’t go here I see him falling to the 40s. McBean undoubtedly has talent but he has not really shown much in the way of consistency this year. Still GWS can afford to take a punt and a 202 KPD would be pretty handy for them down the track when they are making a run at the cup. They have little to lose taking a flyer on a high upside guy here.

Liam McBean
DOB: 25/8/94 Ht: 203 Wt: 87

Most people have no real idea where to stick McBean in their mocks and I am a bit the same. He has got the talent to put very high in the draft but he has some big holes in his game as well which might cause him to drop down the order significantly as well. When I first saw him I was very impressed with him and what he could do at his height but the closer I watched the more warts I saw. I am still inclined to be drawn to the size/talent he has but I am wary as well.

For those who haven’t seen him play he is a lot like Alex Keefe from Collingwood. That is a true ruck sized player who moves like a much smaller guy and whose best position is a key position rather than in the ruck. He is very agile and a smooth mover for such a big guy. His pace is solid as is his ability to read the play.

The biggest problem that I have with McBean is his pathological avoidance of contests. He seems afraid of body contact and steers clear of it if at all possible during games. This is not going to cut it at AFL level. He is never going to be a bulky guy but he is going to be carrying a bit of weight by the time he is finished and he needs to be able to throw that around a bit. At the moment he stays outside of contests and hopes the ball comes to him. I have also noticed that when flying for a mark under pressure he often doesn’t commit to getting in line with the ball seemingly worried about the contact. He is also moved around pretty easily and is pretty weak even taking aside his relative skinniness. I can see a lot of gym and contact work in McBean’s future over the next couple of years.

If you can get the physical aspect of his game up to scratch there is a lot to like. He has played a lot up forward but moved down back this year including at the Champs and I thought he showed some potential as a KPD especially if he is allowed to play loose. He reads the ball well in the air and judges his arrival at the ball nicely. His height and decent jump allows him to get up above virtually anyone else and he is a capable mark of the ball. He is has a pretty good spoil when caught behind and again his height and reach make him pretty formidable in this regard.

He is agile enough that he is not turned around that easily and when he is he recovers pretty well and showed enough pace and nous to compensate. AFL forwards will obviously outbody him at the moment but down the track he should be a difficult proposition to handle. With the KPFs getting taller and taller including the likes of Daniher this year and Boyd next year, having a ruck sized KPD has a lot of appeal especially if they can go into the ruck. I am sure many coaches are intrigued by his height.

In the ruck contest thought his strength is really found out and I am not sure he will ever be a full time ruck. You never know though and he is already up to 203cm and still growing. If he stops growing upwards and starts bulking up and growing into his body then there is a chance. Put it this way though he is going to have height on every other KP/Ruck in the competition (barring Keefe maybe) and with some targeted coaching in a full time environment he should at the worst be serviceable as a team’s second ruck and there is potential that he could be significantly better than that.

He is a very relaxed kick for a big man and has a lot of confidence in his kicking ability. That is sometimes misplaced and you will get a few errors each game at present but you can definitely see the potential for improvement there. He is good off either foot and is a penetrating kick when he goes long. He tends to go short to intermediate as his first option and does misjudge the weight of his kicks not infrequently and he is also prone to leaving too much loop in his passes. A lot of his problems I think might be focus related and I think his coaches will be drubbing into him that he needs to concentrate on what he is doing when he is kicking first before he moves onto what to do next. He is an accurate kick for goal but he doesn’t tend to be a big goal kicker. I note his coach thinks he is an elite kick so maybe I am being a bit harsh on him.

Below the knees he is very good for his height and when he gets the ball he is very capable by hand. He can occasionally deliver a hospital handpass but usually he is pretty effective in clearing the ball to a man in space. He does have a bit of an odd jogging style where he splays his feet a bit as he runs like a lifesaver wading through water and I wonder whether this might make him more predisposed to injury.

Overall McBean is an intriguing mix of talent and he is such a long way from a finished product that it harder to see where he will end up than it is for the more finished products who will be available. Whoever takes him is going to need to be patient with him and the supporters should not expect to see him for a couple of seasons at the very least.

 

[Quigley]

29. Hawthorn

The Hawks are in premiership mode but they do need to look to the future particularly in the KPD space. They brought in Lake this year but he is a short term fix and I think getting Rodda for the longer term would be a very good move. I also think Rodda is a guy who would suit the way Hawthorn like to play especially going forward. Shoenmakers is slowly making progress and throwing another young KPD into the mix is needed.

Nicholas Rodda
DOB: 6/7/94 Ht: 196 Wt: 98

I am not afraid to admit I have absolutely no idea where Rodda will go in this draft. He has been a big improver this year but he had one of the worst games you are ever likely to see from a key position defender when playing on Daniher at the Champs. It was downright embarrassing, to such an extent that it made me question the coach’s acumen and then the other tall options that WA had. If Rodda was getting toweled up this badly and yet they refused to make a change how bad must those other KPDs be?

I watched Rodda in a couple of other matches at the Champs and he was not nearly as bad. If I disregard the Metro match I do not see all that much difference between Rodda and Clurey and seeing as Clurey didn’t get to play Daniher (but still got smashed by Boyd) that might be fair enough. Both play better in looser roles where they can play the ball rather than being lead to it. Rodda was most effective across the Champs when he played in front and paid more attention to the ball rather than his man. He did a very good job on Bourke from Qld playing this way but interesting when he went onto Tickner who was more mobile and forced Rodda to follow him around the ground he was not nearly as effective.

The player Rodda reminds me of most is Matthew Watson of Carlton both for his size and his kicking. He does not quite have the cannon leg that Watson does but he is in the same ball park. He took all the kick-ins for WA and was very effective doing so. He has great length on his kicking and good weight in most cases. His decision making is usually pretty sound but occasionally there is a lapse. He has really made a jump this year though and the occasional lapse as he gets more experience and used to playing against better players is to be expected.

Another feature which is eerily similar to Watson is that for a big guy he does not play nearly as physically as you would expect and want to see. If anything you would say both of them are pretty soft as KPDs go. Rodda too often loses body on body contests and against guys 10-15kgs lighter than him that shouldn’t happen. He definitely needs some strength work but also a lot of coaching about how to use his body to best effect. Have a look at someone like Glass or Merrett and see how they work the man over physically. Against Daniher, Rodda seemed pathologically incapable of putting a body on Daniher and preventing him having an easy run at the ball. In that game I got the feeling that Rodda had never played on a KPF of that height and had no idea of what to do.

Against opposition his height Rodda is a pretty good spoil of the ball. He is not a particularly good mark of the ball and he has pretty hard hands both over his head and below the knees. He is prone to fumbling a bit when trying to recover balls on the deck and this could see him under pressure a lot at AFL level. I do note that he finished in the top 10 in the clean hands test at Combine so it’s possible I have just caught him at bad times. He does have excellent pace particularly off the mark which is fantastic for a man of his size and on straight leads he is capable of going step for step with virtually any forward. What he lacks though is agility and an ability to change direction quickly. A few worked him out a bit at the Champs and started to get separation on him but I think with experience and specialized training he should be able to compensate especially when his pace is so good. When he goes to ground he needs to recover quicker and I notice a few times his man was back up and going well before Rodda got off the ground. Tackling wise he could also be better.

As mentioned already he was a very mixed bag at the Combine. His pace was excellent and he measured in fantastically well for a KPD in height and weight. His agility and 3km however were very poor and would concern teams. His jumping was in the top 25% and that combined with his height should allow him to be effective spoiling at AFL level.

Overall I would draft this kid because he has great size, excellent pace and a very big and accurate leg. He has been improving very quickly and I think should continue to do so with good coaching. There are definitely deficiencies in his game but they should be able to be coached out of him and with his leg he could become a real weapon at the back. From a reply to one of my comments on him on the Lions board I understand he is a good young guy and very coachable. That kind of thing will only help him get picked up.



30. Port Adelaide

Port need depth of quality across the park and so its hard to know exactly which way they will go here. I had actually wanted to have Thurlow taken in the 20s but things did not quite work out so I am happy to give him to Port at 30.

Jackson Thurlow
DOB: 28/3/94 Ht: 189 Wt: 80

If Thurlow had been a Vic Country player and got 45 possessions against Metro, made the AA team and was named his team’s best player at the Champs then I am sure virtually everyone on here would be saying he is a certainty to be taken in the first round. As it is Thurlow is being talked about as a 3rd or 4th round pick. Personally I think he has as much talent if not more than a lot of the tall flanker types being talked up like Garner and Wright and in fact I rate him higher than those two.

Thurlow made a name for himself in the Metro game as a HBFer where he did a great job playing loose and cleaning up at the back. The ball was coming in there easy and often and being at that game I thought he stood up very well. He was given a job to do and that was to double team at the fall of the ball and to be the link coming out of defense. I have heard a bit of criticism of him for the way he played that game but to me he was following the coach’s orders and doing it well. He would not have helped his team nearly as much if he played a close checking role all day. He was not exclusively loose and did pick up smalls and talls over the day (including Tom Boyd for a while that I noticed) but he was given a license to lay off them a bit and read and react with the ball coming in. Defensively I thought he did an excellent job.

My one real issue with him in that game was not his defensive work it was with his go-forward or more correctly his go-backwards. Too many times in that game he looked to go backwards first rather than get it moving quickly forwards. The amount of pressure his team were under though I could understand it. Generally though his skills are pretty good and he has a nice little punch kick that he uses well to hit targets. He has good vision and makes good decisions with the ball. I also rate him as one of the better flanker handballers this year. He makes good decisions when to handball it and when something is on he can get it to the player nicely by hand and set him away.

Thurlow is also a very capable mark of the ball. He attacks the ball well and commits his body strongly to contest. He has good focus on the ball and soft hands. His pack marking is good and for a pretty lean guy he has good strength in wrestling situations. He can leap nicely at the ball but he doesn’t always take the ball at its highest level and too often at the moment takes the ball on his chest rather than in his hands in front of himself. At AFL level he is going to get spoiled a lot until he corrects these technique issues.

Despite playing that one big game down back at the Champs he has probably played more as a HFF or midfielder this year. That is including at the Champs. I think his coach at the Champs used him wherever he could help the team the most and against Metro that was down back but when they were able to get their fair share of the ball that was up forward. Up forward he has that aggressive marking style player who when he marks he makes good decisions when to pass off, play on or go back and take the shot. He is a good finisher whether on the run or from the set shot. His approach to his set shot is pretty well balanced and he punches through his shot low. He is a very capable shot for goal from a tight angle and seems confident in his ability to finish.

Thurlow has a good ability to get open wherever he is on the ground and seems to have a natural feel for the game. He is a tenacious player with the ball in dispute and has really clean hands below his knees. He is confident with the ball in dispute and will back himself to pick the ball up cleanly and go away with it where to fumble could cause disaster.

Physically he is pretty much a protypical modern flanker. He has good height at 189 and a lean build which should fill out well. He was in the top 20% in all the jumps at the Combine as well as in the repeat sprints. His 20m time was interesting as he was woeful over the first 5 metres but after that he was very good and pulled a lot of time back. I read from that that he may need to work on his explosiveness but some sprint training could certainly help him and is reasonably fixable. In game situations where he is moving you can see that he has a next gear that others struggle to keep up with. He seems to get separation in game situations fairly easily no matter where he is playing. His agility was pretty good as well and that would have reassured some people looking to use him as a back. His beep and 3km times were not great but not terrible either. It is worth noting that he went to the Combine with a fractured thumb and multiple facial fractures that he suffered in one of the TSL finals. Unlike many he did not use that as an excuse not to test and to have performed as he did is a credit to him.

Thurlow has been on the radar for a few years and I am sure not many were surprised with what he showed. He showed some improvement with his skills this year and to me he looks like an AFL player in waiting with little doubt. There is also some potential for him to be a very good AFL player given his natural feel for the game and the physical talents he has.


31. Port Adelaide

Port lost Pearce and so why not go with a guy who could play that role just as well if you give him a little time.

Marvin Warrell
DOB: 19/9/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 78

For any team who was keen on Simpson but missed out they can always look to his twin brother (not really) Marvin Warrell. Warrell has not quite had the highs and is more inconsistent but at their best they are very similar players. If I am picking Warrell I am hoping he develops into a Jetta style wingman who can get forward and kick goals. He has a lot of the same tools.

Warrell has become a bit more consistent over the second half of the year and showed some real talent at the Champs particularly in the Metro game. For some reason he only played two games but that was enough for a lot of people to jump onto the bandwagon. Pulling out a big game in the WAFL Colts grand final is also very handy for getting you drafted and that is certainly what Warrell did winning the medal in the Grand Final medal with his 23 disposals, 7 inside 50s and 3 goals. He has stood up in the grand final the last two years and being known as a player who can be relied on when the pressure is on will interest teams.

Warrell tends to drift in and out of games a bit indicating to me that he needs to up his tank quite a bit in order to reach his potential. If he can though there is a lot to like and I note that he seemed to be improving his endurance as the year went on despite not testing that way. When he is out there he covers a fair bit of ground getting to where is needed and impacting when he does. He will get back into defense if required to cut out a mark and follow it all the way up the ground. When he is playing on the wing he is around the ball a lot and will get in there and chase the ball in contests. He has a reputation for having clean hands and whilst I have some queries about how good his hands are I note that even when I have seen him fumble he maintains control of the ball with taps and so forth and usually comes away with the ball.

In the contest he has nice balance and body control. He is also light on his feet and very elusive with a great burst of pace. He is very quick off the mark and has really nice top end speed. As he gets better endurance he should be able to use his speed even more and for longer periods and this should be a real weapon of his.

His kicking needs a bit of work to flatten out his kicks a bit so they will consistently get where they are supposed to go at AFL level. Currently his stock kick is fairly typical of a lot of juniors in that it has a little bit too much loop and takes too long to get to the target. He does have a few tricks in his bag though and I have no doubt that with some work his kicking will be absolutely fine probably a fair bit better than that. He is dual sided and has good touch on his kicks. As he flattens his kicking out I think that touch should remain.

Defensively he provides reasonable run and chase and is a good tackler if someone comes within his grasp. As he ups his endurance I see some potential to be a lot better than that. I think at the moment the mind is willing but the body doesn’t quite allow him to run both ways consistently. He is still pretty light but looks to have bulked up a bit since the Champs. I doubt he will ever be huge but I think he should be able to carry enough weight to play in the AFL effectively.

At the Combine he performed poorly especially in the endurance testing. This is not a surprise and the indigenous kids who don’t really train for the tests tend to do poorly year after year. For those guys I usually ignore the test results and go more with what I see on the field. On the field his endurance looks to be improving and his speed good.

Warrell is a guy who can find space and always looks like he has time. He evaluates situations well and makes pretty good decisions. Playing as a wingman he needs to up his possessions and get more consistently involved in games but I see this as a function of endurance which will improve as his tank gets better. He is a smart footballer with lots of natural talent. All things being equal he should get picked up this year and I think he should do pretty well if he can settle into the club that picks him up.


32. Richmond

Despite him being a feature toward the front of many mocks I think this may be a bit high for Membrey. Notwithstanding that I think he would really suit Richmond where he could work off Reiwoldt to great effect. This is a good fit for both parties so I will go with it.

Tim Membrey
DOB: 26/5/94 Ht: 189 Wt: 88

Membrey would be one of the best junior key position forwards in his age group. The problem with his is that he doesn't have the height for that role at AFL level and he has not really be tried in other positions. I do not understand this as if you had a kid who had talent but was too short to play as a key position why wouldn't you move him around to try him out in positions where if he succeeded he could create interest? The answer is probably that he really is not flash in other positions and it is sometimes better to think there is a possibility that he can play other positions rather than play and have it confirmed that he can't. Vic Country may also have not thought he was not much of a draft prospect, given his height, as they didn't pick him the first few games of the Champs. When he came in he did well though and stepped up to that level without any trouble.

Those who think he can make it point to Jack Darling as a similar player and that is probably a fair argument although I note that Darling is still a couple of centimetres taller than Membrey. Membrey has a very similar skill set to Darling although Darling I thought had more midfield potential than I see for Membrey. Both also have and had a significant question about whether they will have the engine to play effectively at the next level. Darling went out and exceeded anything I expected with his running in his first year. Of all the things which surprised with Darling the startling improvement in his tank was the thing which allowed him to gain the success he had. He could hard lead several times and then turn around and chase down his opposition. Membrey must do the same to successfully transition to the AFL. At the moment he is solid endurance wise but he needs to lift that several notches. I have no idea about whether he will be able to do that and that is where the professional recruiters have a massive advantage in evaluating guys like Membrey.

Membrey is a very smart forward who uses his assets very well. He works out his defender and what will work and then he goes out and does it. If he is playing on a weaker defender he will use his strength if it is a slower player then he will use his pace. At the Champs he worked Dick over with his strength and Luccon with his pace by way of example. He is good at checking a defender with body contact and then leading hard at the ball. He has enough pace to sustain the separation he gets on quicker players and to increase it on slower players.

He is very well developed physically and has got used to having a big advantage in the strength department over his opposition. He uses that strength advantage very well not just to outwrestle his opposition but also protect the drop zone and to hold his line when under body pressure. A lot of similarly mature players have failed to adapt when they got to the AFL where everyone is so much stronger and quicker and their advantage was lost. That is certainly in issue here but I think he has a lot of other things going for him and the smart rather than overpowering way he uses his strength now should allow him to bring his game to the AFL. I also think that whilst he might not have the same strength advantage once fully mature I would still expect him to be stronger than most medium defenders he is going to come up against.

His marking is very good. He has soft hands and his body control and ability to adjust in the air is excellent. On the lead he is very hard to get around and keeps his man on his back very nicely and then to mark he extends out in front of his eyes making it difficult for a defender to spoil. With the ball coming in and playing from behind he judges the ball very nicely in the air and works the defender under the ball very well before turning to mark. He does well keeping the man on of the drop zone no matter where he is positioned.

His kicking for goal and around the ground is very good. He has a balanced, deliberate approach to goal without any obvious problems or flaws. He doesn't quite align his body and the ball but this is pretty minor. He gets a reasonable amount of momentum in his approach and kicks through his shots well. He finished the year very strongly and this would certainly have helped his chances. In the TAC semi he kicked 8 goals 2 behinds to get Gippsland through to the grand final and then in the last game he managed 4 goals 3 behinds. That kind of performance in the TAC finals gets you selected and usually pretty highly.

 

[Quigley]

33. Brisbane Lions

Another key position here for the Lions and another long shot. Still I rate his talent and would be happy to take a punt on him.

Liam Flaherty
DOB: 14/12/93 Ht: 193 Wt: 86

Flaherty is a key position forward from NSW who is one of my sleeper picks of this year. In a year where the KPF quality is not particularly high I would be very keen to take a punt on Flaherty. He was injured a lot in 2011 and so got another chance to show what he could do at under 18 level. Unfortunately the NSW team this year was the weakest for quite a few years and that didn't do him a lot of favours. He did show a bit though and for me he definitely won the match up that he had with Clurey at the Champs. Clurey has more experience and high level training and for Flaherty to beat him in a well beaten side I thought said a lot about his talent. Clurey is likely to go in the first round and Flaherty is probably third round at best. Sounds like value to me. Before and after the Champs he played in the NEAFL Eastern Conference and he finished the year very strongly. He picked up the competition’s Rising Star award after being nominated in week 17. Team’s like to see kid’s come back from the Champs, work on what needs to be worked on and finish the year strongly. Flaherty certainly did that.

Flaherty is a leading FF who gets out on the lead and leads hard. He has good pace and seems able to get separation pretty easily even against good opposition. He will give you repeat leads and if he is playing with teammates who can use the ball reasonably he will get a lot of goals. In the NSW team this year he was up against it a bit with the ball falling short or going over his head too much. When they actually gave him a chance to mark it though he showed he could snaffle it. He has very good strong hands which if he can't hang onto it will control the ball to the ground even under pressure from a defender sitting in his pocket. With the ball on the ground he shows really nice clean hands for a big man and can recover, gather and go before a lot of defenders realise what is happening.

His kicking for goal is okay but is probably something which I would like to be better. He has a pretty good approach to his set shot and I do not see a lot wrong with his style but he did miss a few in the games I watched him play. He has pretty good goal sense but lacks a little on the execution front. In one passage of play I notice show good agility collecting off his toes, balance nicely and then take a nice shot from the angle but just put it wide. Everything looks there for him to be able to make those type of plays in the future with some more practice.

I noticed Flaherty playing up the ground every now and then and I think down the track I think he could split time between FF and CHF. He started on the wing at a few centre bounces and did okay although I would not say he had a big influence on the play. Let’s just say though that he has the running and marking ability to entice teams with ideas of different ways to use him. He did play on the wing a bit for GWS when they played him and has also played as a key position defender for his club doing pretty well from reports. Defensively he works reasonably hard in the forward half and does a pretty good job corralling and inhibiting the defenders trying to get the ball out of defense.

He has okay endurance but I think there is definitely room for improvement there. The major focus this preseason though will be putting on some bulk. He is not going to be physically up to playing next year at AFL level but then again hardly any key positions are. I think his frame is fine though and he looks like he should be able to put on the weight needed to compete against AFL defenders.

He attended State Screening and had a bit of a mixed bag. His jumping was very strong but everything else was pretty average apart from his 20m sprint which was poor. He tested appalling over the first 5 metres and this really set him back. He did a lot better in the 30m repeat sprint but still nothing really to write home about. Watching him play I think he plays quicker than he timed but I think there is definitely room to work on his explosiveness.

Flaherty is a good full forward prospect who works to front position nicely, leads hard, marks and then can finish. He has nice height and seems willing to work. Hell I take a chance on him and with a lot of teams in need of KPF help he should be picked up. I was impressed when I saw him play and a lot of worse guys will be taken ahead of him this year. He has experience down back and this flexibility should also appeal.


34. Richmond

I think Richmond need to look for a small defender to replace Newman’s kicking at the back but with no-one really grabbing me for that position I have gone with the Metro no 1 small defender. I think Temay has a better balance between defensive and offensive skills than many of the current Richmond group.

Tom Temay
DOB: 6/2/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 74

I have to say I am a bit surprised with the lack of love for Temay. Usually any remotely talented Metro kid is spruiked to the max on here but for some reason the usual hype has passed Temay by and I do not really understand why. I thought he had a very good Champs and showed a really nice ability to step up as the standard of the competition went up. He is a private school kid and did not spend a lot of time in the TAC and I guess when he did play it was toward the end of the season when he seemed to be running down. He only played 7 TAC games and I note he failed to get into the best in any of those games. His form early in the year was very good though and he carried that into the Champs and I am thinking the clubs will pay attention to that.

Temay was Metro’s number 1 small defender and did a very nice job on some of the better players at the Champs including Whitfield in the Country game. In that game Temay lead all players with 24 possessions showing nice ability to shut down his man and then work him the other way as a link player. Over the course of the Champs Temay managed to average 18.8 disposals per game at a good DE% of 77%.

I do think the Metro – Country game did send mix messages about him. In addition to the good above he also looked to lack a bit of class with his disposals and this seemed to be more evident the further the game went. Earlier in that game and generally I think he is a pretty good kick of the ball and he makes decent decisions with the ball. I certainly think his disposal skills are better than Wright’s who is likely to be taken ahead of him on the day. He has a nice technique and reasonable penetration on his kicks and will find the man on most occasions.

He is very good in man on man situations and has the pace and agility to go with most small forwards. I did notice Garlett running away from him on one occasion but for the most part I think he pace has seemed fine. I note that at the Combine he was a bit slow over the first 5 metres but once he was up to speed he was elite quick. That is probably what was happening in the Garlett situation where he was caught out a bit flat footed. He needs to put on weight and get stronger but I think that will come. His height is not ideal but I haven’t noticed him being beaten in the air all that much. There is not much too him at the moment but he is a good tackler as a defender and if he gets his arms on the forward he is usually pretty effective.

He has played some midfield but I do not really see that as an option at the next level unless it is as a tagger. He seems prone to fumbling with the ball below his knees and I think he does panic a little in contested situations. He tends to rush things generally when pressured and with the ball on the ground he often lifts his head and gets into his move before he has secured the ball. It’s possible that this could be coached out of him but composure on the ball is an important factor for a potential mid and I think he lacks it. For a backman it is not uncommon and if he can improve a bit I do not think there should be an issue.

Overall I don’t mind Temay as a defensive player and rather than taking an attacking player who you are going to try and defend I would hope teams consider taking a good small defender who they can build up his offensive game.


35. Essendon

According to Inside Football the Bombers are into Atkins. That’s as good a reason as any to slot him in here.

Rory Atkins
DOB: 12/7/94 Ht:186 Wt: 81

Atkins was flying high last year as an AIS kid who looked assured to be going somewhere pretty high this year. Then he was not selected for the second year in the AIS. Then he gets picked for Metro but only plays two games against lesser teams before being dropped from the squad. Suddenly things looked very shaky for him. Rather than drop his bundle though what he did is go back and work his butt off a show that some of the deficiencies in his game were unfounded.

He was the Calder B&F winner this year and had a golden run of 10 games in a row in the best in the middle of the year. In 5 of those games he was BOG. He moved from being a small forward prospect to now needing to be looked at as a ball winning midfielder who can also go forward. He had a few games where he got over 30 possessions for Calder showing teams that he is going to be capable of winning the ball at the next level. He showed a real propensity for the midfield and you would have to rate his chances of significant improvement as being high. This is especially the case give his endurance levels are not particularly high at the moment and are something which will have to improve at the next level.

He is often referred to as an inside player when he is in the midfield and I guess that is the case but that is not to imply that he is one of those clearance players who is at the bottom of every pack. Whilst he will put his head over the ball when it is his turn he is more of an insider receiver – the bloke who gets the ball shoveled out to him and then he has to do something useful with it. Atkins is very good at quickly assessing the options and then making a good decision so he is very well suited to the receiver role. He is one of those guys who gets the ball and kicks it and you wonder how the hell he saw that guy was there. He is also one of those guys who seems aware of both his short and long options at once and takes the right option depending on the situation.

Atkins is a left footer with that classic easy left foot style. He seems to have really nice feel on the ball although having a look at his stats he did have quite a high number of ineffective kicks per game at TAC level (4.5 per game). This I think was a function of the role he played and a few lapses of concentration. With more experience in the role and the greater focus required at AFL level I think these could be worked out. I really like his delivery into the forward 50. He leads his man onto the ball really nicely and often makes a kick before his forward has made his move. He is not a big kick and I would he looks to pass off from 50. He has a neat goal kicking style where everything is right in behind the ball when he kicks. He is not a big goal kicker but should be capable of a goal a game wherever he plays in the AFL.

As mentioned above his endurance does need work and his pace is only average (3.06 at Combine). He has been criticized for his defensive effort and this is something which he needs to improve on. He is quite a good tackler though so I think as he builds his tank and receives more coaching on what is required he will get there.

Overall I was pretty negative on Atkins before I did a proper assessment of him and I have come around. I think there is a bit to work with with this kid and the way he came back after things did not go his way speak highly of him.


36. Carlton

As I mentioned earlier I think Carlton need to start planning for life after Simpson and Scotland and Broomhead is probably a good one to add to the mix.

Tim Broomhead
DOB: 22/3/94 Ht: 182 Ht: 75

I went into the Champs with high expectations for Broomhead and came away pretty disappointed. He played mostly on the outside at the Champs and did not show much in the way of football smarts or skills. He is a quick outside runner but he did not get nearly enough of the ball averaging only 15.2 disposals per game and went missing entirely too often. Credit too him though he came back from the Champs, improved and finished the year strongly with Port in the SANFL seniors and making regular appearances in the bests.

Some people have expressed the opinion that he will end up being an inside mid but personally I do not see it. He did not have any impact there for SA when they really needed it and I doubt he is every going to be a particularly big person. He was played a bit on ball with his club and did okay apparently but I did not see those games. What I have noticed with him is that whilst he is often very clean below his knees when he is not under physical pressure, when he is buffeted around or in the grasp he is not nearly as clean and tends to fumble a bit too often for me to be comfortable about his inside games. Admittedly he does seem to have good awareness of where everyone is even under pressure and he can find them reasonably well.

Speed is Broomhead's big weapon and although I would not put him with the elite of this draft pace wise he would certainly comfortably be in that next group down. At Combine he tested really well in the speed tests particularly in the repeat sprints where he finished fourth. In the 20m sprint he suffered from being relatively slow over the first 5 metres but he was making up time on the field on the field over the last 15m. The 30m repeat sprint was more representative of what he can do although top 4 is a little high for him as far as game pace goes. In other testing, he was solid but not great in the agility and in the bottom half of the endurance testing. The endurance was disappointing given that his position as a winger demands that he have upper echelon endurance and at the moment he is a long way off that.

Skills-wise Broomhead is a little bit of a mixed bag. He often tends to drag the ball across himself as he kicks and I think that affects the consistency of his kicks a bit. The inconsistency tends to affect his short to intermediate kicks mostly. On those shorter kicks he tends to not be very attacking and lacks hurt factor. When he goes longer I quite like his kicking quite a bit more. He has a good ability to find a target at longer distances where a lot of kids would just bomb it onto the head of the player. He leads the long target very well which is a little odd considering he often does not do this as well at shorter distances.

At the Champs I thought Broomhead did not take the game on as much as he should have and lacked a bit of a feel for when he should have gone and when he should have passed off. He can run himself into trouble on occasions and miss a seam when it is there to be taken. Also I did not think he had a natural feel for where to run to get open. His lack of engine could well be a factor of this but I don't think he went to the right spots to receive often enough.

I have to admit that I did not see his SANFL games toward the end of the year which has gotten quite a few people excited. I have given him a little credit in upping him based on those reports but he may still be taken higher in the real thing. His performances remind me quite a bit of Jack Redden's year when he was drafted and like Redden he could be a significant riser come draft day.

 

[Quigley]

37. Fremantle

Freo could do worse than take a the smart WA capt who is a training track warrior. I think Carter will be a value pick this year and Freo could get a bargain here.

Adam Carter
DOB: 17/4/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 72

Carter was the WA captain and it is interesting that he played a pretty similar role to Vlastuin at the Champs and played it just as well but he is likely to go significantly lower than Vlastuin. He is studying law in WA and is a smart kid who seems to be just as good a leader as Vlastuin. In the huddles he is the bloke who does the talking and leads the way on the training track with a great work ethic. In addition to his AFL he has until recently been an elite cricket prospect who toured India with the Australian schoolboys team. Now that he is focused full-time on his football it is fair to assume he will develop more.

This year he played mostly on the half back flank but he also showed some pretty decent ability to play through the midfield. At the back he provides good run forward and not only that he is a very capable one on one defender. He is strong, quick and agile and will make life difficult for anyone he is matched up on. His speed is good but not elite but he is smart enough to compensate when playing on the elite speed guys. He can put the body on and force the forward toward the pockets or out of range. He is also solid overhead and capable of holding his own in the marking contest against players he is likely to match up on.

When he was moved into the midfield he was effective winning clearances and generally giving the WA more punch in the middle of the ground. The WA midfield often lacked ball clearance players and when Carter was in there there was a definite up tick in the performance of that unit. Similarly when someone was getting away down back Carter was often the one sent back to quieten them down and he was successful in that more often than not.

Carter is a long kick who kicks with nice weight whether going long or short. He follows his kicks up nicely and can link up well going forward. He has good hurt factor on his kicks and unlike most in this draft he also has good hurt factor on his handballs. He can bring out good sweeping handballs when the situation warrants it. Under pressure he doesn't panic and will take the time he needs to get the ball to the right option. He displays good vision whether in tight or out in the open and then he can hit the open man that he sees.

In the contest his hands are probably not clean as some but he is still pretty reasonable. He shows good attack on the ball in contested situations and if an opposition gets the ball he is an able tackler. Overall Carter is a solid half back prospect who will potentially develop into a really nice midfielder.


38. North Melbourne

Wood is a utility who could play either end and he would be handy for North who could send him wherever he is needed. He is really a flanker but has third tall height and having that kind of flexibility would be handy in a developing North side.

Mason Wood
DOB: 13/9/93 Ht: 192 Wt: 80

Wood is an overage player who came on strongly this year and has given himself every chance to be drafted. He has grown at least 2cms this year as a 19 year old and whilst he is getting up into the key position height range he will still be a flanker type at the next level. If I picked him I would be seeing him as a Grant Birchall / Sam Gilbert type tall flankers who are very mobile but don’t really have the bulk or strength to play key position. He played a lot of KPF for Geelong this year but was a flanker at the Champs (up forward and down back at different times) and that is where I expect him to play in the AFL. I note Jay Clark has lead an article with the statement that he could be the next Jeremy Cameron. I don’t have a lot of respect or time for Clark and that statement just reinforced my opinion. They will not be remotely similar players in the AFL.

Wood is a running player who is around the ball more than is common for outside types especially those who play as a key position at TAC level. He gets his hands onto the ball a fair bit and will get clearance every now and then but that is certainly not his strong suit. It does however show that he is willing to get his hands dirty and put his head over the ball when it is his turn and with some practice he could do alright in those situations. With the ball on the deck his hands are pretty good especially for a 192cm player. He is also a willing tackler and will work to tackle not just inside but he will also chase to make tackles in space. I did not notice his tackling much at the Champs but he was pretty good in this area in the TAC.

I probably like him down back more than up forward mainly because I see his goal kicking as being a bit shaky. He is prone to missing goals he should get and he does not look comfortable or natural taking a set shot. He is a pretty good mark and despite being fairly thin does pretty well in contested situations and maintains balance and concentration on the ball. He has big mitts for hands and he shows pretty good control above his head although I would not say he is the cleanest mark of the ball. I think his hands are a little hard when he goes at the ball. He likes a mark and does not shy away from giving it a crack if he has half a chance. He picked up 23 goals in 15 matches in the TAC having a couple of bags of 4 but generally he is not a huge goal scoring threat even when he plays down there the whole game.

I like him down back a bit more than up forward because I think he can use his run a bit more from there in a similar way to Birchall and Gilbert two guys I compared him to above. He has good but not elite pace and really nice agility for someone of his height. I think he should be able to go with most medium forwards and give them work to do going the other way. He is not a shutdown defender by any means but he has not exactly had a lot of practice in that role up until now and he has enough mongrel in his to play that role I think if he was challenged to take it on.

I expected a better beep than he performed at the Combine even allowing for the conditions but he did come back with a pretty good 3km run which reassured me a bit on his engine. He needs to improve but he does have the ability to cover some ground. Overall he has really good athletic talents across the board but below elite in any one thing. He certainly has the overall athletic capabilities to play whatever position is set him though.

Wood is a left footer who is probably only average or a little above in this class. He is capable on his non-preferred right and does get pretty decent penetration when he needs to use it. On his left he is prone to floating the ball a bit and flattening that out is something which I am sure will be a focus of his first AFL preseason. At the moment I think he would be a better kick than Gilbert (who looks pretty but misses too many targets so not hard) and Birchall.

He is a very confident kid who has a bit of aggression about him in the field. I like the improvement that we have seen over the last year or so and his combination of height, athletic prowess and football acumen will appeal to quite a few clubs I am thinking.


39. Collingwood

Wilson really does suit the Collingwood style of play and would be an excellent get for them. I think he has a lot of upside and Collingwood would back themselves to get the most out of him.

Patrick Wilson
DOB: 11/12/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 76

Wilson is one of the younger potential draftees and one I think has gone a bit under the radar this year. He is a smooth moving back flanker who specialises is playing a loose role behind play. He was tucked away with school football for a lot of the year but ended up playing 12 games for Sturt at under 18 level. He improved as the year went on and had a huge game in the major semi where he was BOG with 39 disposals. The light just seemed to go on with him mid year and suddenly he went from being a so so player to being one of the better performing players in the competition. Teams like guys who excel in the second half of the year and Wilson certainly did that. He had an injury late in the year which might have even dampened his momentum a bit.

Wilson is a guy that will sit behind play, read the where the ball is going and then be there to take the ball away. He is a superior read of the play and is a good mark averaging 5.6 marks a game in his role at the back. He is not a big jumper but he has long arms and he can mark or get a fist in and keep himself in with a chance of collecting the ball. When the ball hits the deck he has good clean hands and the ability to pick up and go without fumbling.

Athletically he plays a bit better than he tested. I hadn't noticed speed being a particular issue (in fact I thought he his speed was pretty good) and whilst he didn't test particularly poorly it was slower than I had expected. His speed over the first 5m was pretty ordinary although it is worth noting his 30m repeat sprint was noticeably better than his 20m result. So it’s likely his first step is a bit ordinary but once he is up to speed he is fine. A bit of sprint training to work on his explosiveness might help him. It was a pretty similar story with the agility testing. Again from watching him I thought he had pretty decent agility, not elite sure but certainly better than average. His testing put him in the middle of the pack which surprised me. With the testing it is skewed in favour of kids who have actually done specific training for the tests and it may be that Wilson did not train for it and consequently his results were not as good as others of like ability.

He did test pretty well in the beep test and this was not a surprise. He gets around the park nicely and I think this is something that he has worked on as I think he was more comfortable covering the turf in the later part of the year. He averaged 27.5 disposals a game and even as a loose back you don't get that many possessions each game unless you have a decent tank.

His skills are either really nice or really poor with not much in between. When he gets onto it he has a big leg and he can kick it 50m without too much effort and some of his kicks I think would have gone 60m. He is composed at the back and does not panic when under pressure. If he is looking for something and it is not there he is willing to pull it back in and look for his backup option. He has good balance when he kicks and with his play generally and when he needs to change direction he balances up quickly and can take advantage of his options earlier than many. In addition to his long leg he also has a nice low punching kick which he uses regularly on his short to intermediate kicks. This kick is accurate and will work well at AFL level. His decision making coming out of defence is good more often than not.

At AFL level I think he has to match up on third talls or tall mediums. He struggles with hard leading types and the really quick and agile smalls like Rioli and Milne (as most do lets face it). He will be forced to do the hard yards before he can play a lose role and getting the right match up may present some difficulties. He is not a close checker but with focus on that there is no reason to think it would not improve.

Wilson is still pretty lean and is not likely to ever be very bulky although I do think his frame should hold enough weight to allow him to play at AFL level and not be snapped in half in the first tackle. With him being the better part of a year younger than many other prospects and his focus having been on school football up to this stage I do think there is quite a lot of potential in Wilson and if a team wanted to take a punt late in the draft he is one who could pay off.


40. Fremantle

Every chance that Freo takes a couple of KPF prospects this draft and Colledge is one I don’t mind.

Brant Colledge
DOB: 25/10/94 Ht: 192 Wt: 89

Early in the year Colledge had a very bad ankle injury which kept him under the radar a bit. He managed to get back for the end of the Champs and then went on to finish the year very strongly. The strong finish to the year should help him as he showed that he had learnt from the Champs experience and was able put what he had learnt into practice and take his game to the next level. I think his finished to the year would have garnered more attention from teams than many on Big Footy expect. If for any reason he didn't get picked up he is eligible to play next year as an overage player. I am confident though that someone will pick him though.

Colledge has been playing as a high CHF at Colts level but was closer to goal when I saw him at the Champs. At the Champs I was impressed with his hard leading style. I thought he had a few rough edges but he was a forward who charged out and gave his mids a legitimate option to kick it to and if he didn't get it the first time he would lead again. At under 18s you don't see a lot of kids doing multiple hard leads and I am sure people other than myself noticed. His marking is a feature of his game and is what will set him apart from a lot of those being considered in the range where he will go. On his leads he times his arrival at the ball very well and protects the drop zone really nicely. He is a reasonable size but not the biggest KP going around and I like that he doesn't try to extend straight up to mark. Instead he extends out in front of his eyes making it hard for the trailing defender to spoil the ball. His hands are very good and if he gets them on the ball chances are he will stick the mark.

He is not a particularly long kick for goal and struggles from 50. He is a reasonably accurate shot for goal within his range but not elite. He is not a big goal scorer and only managed 10 goals from his 8 Colts games. What he does look to do a lot (probably too much to be honest) is look for teammates inside 50 and he will pass off if given the chance. I am not sure whether he lacks confidence in his kicking or whether he is just being overly unselfish but I am sure his coach at AFL will want him to go back and put it through a bit more than he does atm. It has to be said that there is a lot of unselfishness in his game and he tries very hard to do the little team things like laying blocks for his teammates and shepherding. That is good to see and not all that common amongst junior KPFs.

Athletically he looks pretty strong and seems to be able to generate separation with his pace and work rate. I would expect his endurance to be up there with the best of the key positions and realistically it is probably going to need to be to play the way he does at the next level. At Colts level he often plays a Reiwoldt kind of role where he runs hard and marks a lot. At Colts level he had one game where he picked up 31 disposals and 14 marks and another where he managed 27 disposals and 13 marks so if you give him the right role he can really rack them up. I could see him being a key position as he fills out but interestingly his coach sees him more as a third tall or strong-bodied midfielder. I have to say I don’t see him as a mid but a third tall is not out of the question. If he does have potential to be a Josh Kennedy / Jobe Watson style mid though the interest goes up another level.

 

[Quigley]

41. St Kilda

The Saints manage to find a role for Gilbert despite his kicking and I am sure they could do the same for Paparone who if he had a conventional kicking style would be a lot higher than this. If the Saints could sort out his kicking they would have a massive bargain here and a guy who could potentially play the Reiwoldt role when he steps aside.

Marco Paparone
DOB: 3/9/94 Ht: 194 Wt: 84

If not for his kicking I would have Paparone very high in this draft. Often referred to as a CHF I see him really as a tall winger or flanker. He is a running machine who just seems to really enjoy getting out there and outrunning his opposition. Since I have been reviewing I don't think I have ever rated a guy higher because he seems to enjoy playing so much. Usually it’s just a given but with Paparone he just seems to enjoy playing more than others and not just the game but also the hard work that is associated with the modern game. I think that will help him a lot at the next level.

On the wing he is a very mobile marking target who covers a lot of ground and is very hard to contain for anyone close to his height. He creates a lot of easy marking opportunities and he has pretty good hands in those situations. He managed to average about 7.5 marks per game in the Colts. In contested marking situations he is not quite as good mainly because his has a fairly light frame and gets buffeted around a bit. He does not have the body control in the air that you see from some of the elite contested markers. Still when he gets both hands on the ball he sticks them pretty well.

He played a lot as a running CHF for his club and managed to be a pretty effective goal kicker. He finished the year with 45 goals from 17 games and with only 22 points he showed pretty good accuracy. With his style and from what I have seen I thought his goal kicking needed some work but the proof is in the pudding and over the season that is a pretty good return. Up forward he never going to be a power forward but he could work very effectively off a big target and would be dangerous enough to drag defenders away. He works very hard when up forward and again uses his running power to get opportunities. His endurance combined with some good pace allows him to get separation if he has the time and space to work his defender over.

The big problem I have with his game is his ugly kicking style. He has a high two handed release which looks awkward and often produces poor kicks. When he gets it right his kicks can be very effective but the clanger rate is too high at the moment. Some of that is decision making but mostly it is kick execution. Changing a kicking style to the extent necessary here is difficult and often not successful even with patience and dedication. It is possible though and there is a lot of other things to like about his game.

For a big guy who is nominally a key position he has really good hands in the ruck contest. He is cleaner on the ground than virtually any other key position that I watched this year and when he gets the ball he has quick hands and good decision making in tight situations. His hands would do an inside mid credit.

If Paparone can improve his kicking a bit I think he could have a long AFL career. His height and endurance perfectly suit the modern game and would allow him to play in a variety of positions and this seems to be something favoured by many coaches. I don't see him as being a true key position but as a tall utility he has definite value.


42. North Melbourne

Okay here I am just giving North my big faller. It has gotten to the stage where I have dropped him down enough and it’s time to just get him off the books.

Taylor Garner
DOB: 8/1/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 77

I have to say I am surprised with the amount of attention Garner is getting coming into this draft. I think everyone who missed the Fyfe train when he was a junior is jumping on Garner expecting him to be similar. Whilst I do see quite a lot of similarities I also see a lot of risk with him and not a lot of performance to back up his high rating. Now I admit I didn't see his game against WA where he managed 20 disposals and 3 goals in, by all reports, a great game in Perth but from what I have seen I am not yet sold. You have to give him some slack for playing through 4 shoulder dislocations in 4 games at the Champs but his shoulder problems like those of Fyfe could be a career limiting injury and must be taken into consideration when evaluating him. Shoulders are notorious for reoccurring and the chances of him having multiple injuries and operations over his career are high.

Garner only played 8 TAC games this year, none since 14 July and whilst he was in the best on all but one game he only managed 4 goals in those 8 games. That is hardly the type of return you would expect from a half forward you were paying a first rounder to select. Garner does have some flair about the way he plays and can pull off the freakish on occasion. He is a good athlete having a nice leap and pace which he uses well not the park. People are buying into the potential in a big way with Garner which I guess is fair enough but the risks are significant for a player who missed selection in the TAC last year through injury and other issues and lost games again this year due to injury.

Apart from injury concerns I also have a few questions about his kicking. His kicking skills often look very good but he is prone to pulling out very poor clangers semi-regularly. Not only is the consistency of the execution in question but the decision making as well. Sometimes you do wonder what he was thinking. Often it seems like lapses in concentration and it might be a lack of game time over the last two years has left him rusty and his focus is not quite what it should be.

Okay for a few positives. Garner is an excellent mark of the ball, reading the ball exceptionally well in the air. He times his jump at the ball very well and he is often keen to try a speccie if the opportunity presents itself. His hands are good over his head and he realises that his job is not over when he marks the ball. After taking a mark he quickly evaluates his options and will play on quickly if something is available. He is pretty unselfish up forward and has shown a good ability to hit a target inside 50. He is not just a run and jump mark of the ball he is also capable of taking a pack mark. He is relatively slight but he has good strength and uses that strength very intelligently. He works his man under the ball pretty well and has a good two footed standing jump.

He is probably one of the better defensive medium forwards this year. He chases hard and is regularly able to actually catch and tackle the opposition player. His tackling technique is pretty good. He is also smart around the ball and works the percentages to create things out of nothing when others switch off. He often will look like he is coasting and then bang spring into action and intercept an errant kick or keep a ball in play when everyone else was getting ready for the throw in.

A few people have talked up his ability to become a midfielder but I would probably bet against him becoming a full time midfielder the way Fyfe has. Garner often seems reluctant to commit to contests and put his head over it when it is his turn although I note others disagree with me on this point. His hands when the ball is on the ground are also not what you would like in a midfielder and he can be prone to a fumble or two when under pressure. There is also my concerns about his kicking which bears mentioning in any thought of a move to the midfield.

If I was looking to pick Garner I would probably not be thinking I was getting the next Fyfe rather I would be hoping he could turn into another Stevie Johnson complete with tear-your-hair-out mental lapses and all. The ceiling is pretty high with Garner but his floor is also very low given his injury issues and lack of exposure the last couple of years.


43. Richmond

Richmond now has the guy I rate as the best development coach in the AFL. I give him a really high upside guy in Wilkins here and see what he can do with him.

Laine Wilkins
DOB: 30/3/94 Ht: 189 Wt: 77

Wilkins thrust himself into the consciousness of the casual draft follower with one massive quarter against Metro. Interestingly he did that whilst playing up forward a position that most consider him not best suited to. Personally I don't mind him up forward as there is probably the best chance to use his strengths and cover his weaknesses. Wilkins is a very mixed bag with some really nice traits and some pretty worrying deficiencies as well.

When you see him you think he should be an Isaac Smith / Lewis Jetta super quick wingman but his pace is quite a few notches below that level. He is not slow but I would not say he is particularly quick either. He is quick off the mark but his top end is not in the same class. He does have the agility of those guys though and is very elusive and can be difficult to tackle but when you don't have the top end speed of Smith and Jetta you are going to get nailed eventually and are not able to take full advantage of making someone miss. He also does not judge when to run particularly well and often runs himself into trouble.

It was interesting that he had the top score in both the kicking and clean hands test at the Combine. Having watched him play I would have rated his hands as only average. His kicking I would have rated a bit better than that but probably not near the top of this class. He has a good long left foot peg and even his little chips go a good distance. I thought the weight on his kicks was quite a good but again I would have not put it near the top of the class. Overhead he is a pretty decent mark and has good stretch mark capability. He was in the top 10 in the jumping at Combine and has good height for a medium and that can make him a difficult proposition to handle for a medium defender. An unwillingness to commit the body holds him back from taking full advantage of many of his physical gifts.

One area where he must improve if he wants to have an AFL career is in his willingness to get into a contest. At the moment he is as outside a player as you will ever see. He shies away from contests and will skulk on the outside. In that third quarter against Metro this actually worked in his favour as a few balls just fell into his lap at the back whilst others were contesting the ball. That kind of thing is not going to happen often and he must learn to go into a contest and get the ball when it is his turn. He did show a good ability to take advantage of situations as things arise though and his recovery and thinking in those situations were quick. His tackling is also very much below what you would want particularly if you are going to play up forward. At Colts level he averaged only 1 tackle per game and at ressies level he did not have a single tackle in his two games. That is not going to cut it at AFL level even for a heavily outside player.

For someone who plays so much on the flanks and wings he also simply does not get enough of the ball. It’s not like he is playing in a pocket. He is playing in space where his job is to run and receive. Averaging only 10 possessions a game at Colts level is again just simply not good enough. His relatively poor endurance base is one of the reasons for him not getting the ball that much but another I think is that he just doesn't have good instincts about where to run to receive. With stronger endurance he may work it out but I would be concerned about whether he would ever do so and that is another reason why I would be inclined to play him up forward.

As I am writing this I am wondering why I have him included at all in my mock given all the deficiencies. The simple answer is that he flashes some really nice things which could intrigue a team enough to take him, he tested really well and he can run and kick. It would not surprise me if he was not selected and teams wanted to see him develop more at state level but there is also a fair chance that someone takes the punt.


44. St Kilda

I have a sneaky suspicion that this pick is actually on the cards this year. It makes a lot of sense and the Saints have been trying to bring in a mature defender for a while albeit through a trade rather than the draft. The Saints need someone who can step in and shore up their defense and Hartigan is the best option to do that. Take him FFS.

Kyle Hartigan
DOB: 7/11/91 Height: 194cm, Weight: 93kg

Okay I am nothing if not persistent. This is the fourth year in a row I have included Hartigan and the third time I have given him to the Saints I think. The Saints expressed interest in him last year but for some reason they overlooked him. Maybe they had too many KPDers on their list . Whatever the reason Hartigan has continued to be part of the rebuild and rise to prominence of Werribee. After coming onboard when they were cellar dwellers he has a pillar around which they have built their rise to the finals.

Hartigan was vice captain at Werribee this year and represented Victoria in the VFL v TSL game. He was also named as an inaugural member of the VFL Academy in which he received an individually tailored program and 1 on 1 coaching in an elite environment amongst other things. The aim of the program is to develop overage players in the VFL for potential transition to the AFL. Hartigan did some preseason work with North in 2011 and together with the VFL Academy work has seen Hartigan develop into one of the best big men outside the AFL. He showed really nice progression over the year, playing 20 games again this year finishing in the best on 8 occasions including 6 times in the last 9 games. At junior level, Hartigan was the Western Jets captain in 09 and is also a former AIS/AFL Academy member.

Hartigan plays as a blanketing one on one key defender and is one of the best around in this role. There are quite a few teams who need a full back who has shown an ability to stop AFL standard forwards and it is getting to the stage where he must come into consideration for teams in need of depth if nothing else. This is a young bloke who has consistently improved and has been playing against VFL players for 3 years now. Further he has only just turned 21 this month and is really only at an age where teams would usually consider giving their draftees a shot. By way of comparison this year’s Rising Star winner Daniel Talia is actually older than Hartigan. You are not getting a finished product with Hartigan just a young bloke who has made a damn good start outside of a full time environment. Get him into an AFL program and it’s fair to think there is plenty of upside in him yet.

On the measurables, Hartigan has good size and reasonable athletic ability. I thought he would developed more bulk than he has but he has retained a fairly lean albeit powerful physique. Interestingly he was listed at 93kgs last year but Inside Football now has him at 89kgs. I think he might have fined up a bit since last year but I would be surprised if he was that light. He has not done any current testing that I have access to but going back to the State Screening in 09 and his jumping and endurance were very good being in the top 20% for each. His agility was below average but not by much and was solid for a big guy. His pace off the mark was poor but he showed pretty good top end speed and his first 5 metres was something he acknowledged he needed to work on. I think he has worked on his explosiveness and it seems better now than it was. When he is already moving his pace is good and his ever improving endurance allows him to sustain his run and go with repeat leads nicely.

Up until this year Hartigan had adopted quite a limited offensive role with question marks over his decision making coming out of defense. I have always thought the decision making issue was overstated but whatever the case Hartigan has certainly moved to address both issues this year. It has been a gradual thing over the year but there has been significant improvement. I would not be surprised if this was something that he has been working on with the VFL Academy. Previously I have classified him as a reasonable kick without being a stand out but now I think he is better than that. He is pretty confident coming out of defense and although the hurt factor on his kicks is not high he is capable of being a reliable link in the chain.

In the air he has steadily improved since he has been in the VFL and is now very reliable at the back. He is a good spoil of the ball and makes good decisions about when to spoil and when to mark the ball. When he decides to mark the ball he usually judges the flight of the ball well in the air and when he flies he shows good hands and body control. He does not solely focus on his man and does read the play well up the ground and judges when it is appropriate to leave his man and help well.

If a team is looking for a young veteran key position defender who can come in and play right away and yet still have significant upside I would find it hard to go past Hartigan. Hopefully teams will take my advice and give the guy a go as he deserves it I think.

 

[Quigley]

45. Sydney Swans

Sydney could stand to add another KPD to develop alongside Johnson. LRT and Richards are both 29 and Everitt is not looking like he will amount to anything. Lienert is quietly a pretty good prospect at this stage of the draft.

Jarrod Lienert
DOB: 5/8/94 Ht 192 Wt: 80

Lienert has been under the radar a lot this year because for some reason he was only picked in one game for the Champs. He looked good in that game against the NT and SA could really have used him in other games where Luccon’s lack of pace was getting exposed. At SANFL under 18 level though he has had a really nice season and I dare say if he was playing in the TAC everyone would be raving about this kid. He played 18 games in the SANFL under 18s this year, averaged 21.6 disposals per game and was in the best on 6 occasions. In addition to that he played one ressies game.

Lienert started the year in the forward line and did very well the first couple of weeks with two hauls of 5 goals. After quieting down a bit he split time between the forward line and defense and then toward the end of the year even a bit of time in the middle. In his game at the Champs he played as a defender and that is where I see him playing at AFL level.

Up forward Lienert has a good initial lead and seems able to get separation fairly easily. He is prone to be closed down by quicker defenders and once his initial lead has run its course he rarely gives a subsequent lead. The other problem I have with him up forward is simply that he is not a very good mark of the ball. For a big guy he has very small hands and he plays like that spilling balls that you would generally expect him to take. In the marking contest up forward his lack of jumping power also is pretty evident and although he has long arms he presents as a pretty easy spoiling target.

At the Combine he returned a very awkward set of results. Pace wise he tested very well showing excellent pace of the mark over the first 5 metres. His agility however was on the poor side as was his endurance. In game situations I think his agility is good enough and he was able to handle the smaller, trickier NT forwards well. In fact I would have thought his mobility was pretty good for a key position player. Endurance though is something that he definitely needs to work on as I think he will play as a CHB or third tall in the AFL and he will need to be able to cover more ground than is currently the case.

What will probably get Lienert drafted is his kicking. He is up there with Rodda as the star defensive kicks this year. He has a very big leg on him and he can hit targets nicely coming out of defense. He took kick-ins and was generally the designated kicker coming out of defense for Sturt. He doesn’t mind a run from defense either and when he runs and kicks he is a zone buster who will appeal to many coaches.

Defensively he is not the greatest (common story this year) and plays more as a loose man rather than a close checker but then that makes sense given the number of possessions he racks up. He is not very physical and when asked to play on a man tends to play off a bit and attempt to compensate with his pace. This probably won’t work if he is going to play as a KPD at AFL level but if he is asked to play as a third tall like Maxwell or O’Brien I think it will be fine. He reads the play pretty well coming in and he is okay at taking cut out marks. When the ball is on the deck he shows really nice hands for a big guy. His coaches gave him some time onball toward the end of the year and he showed himself to be a pretty capable clearance winner for a big bloke. If I am drafting a big defender being clean enough to win contested ball on the ground would appeal to me.

Height wise he is actually taller than Plowman and Clurey and there is potential for him to grow a bit more which would be handy. His father was an SANFL ruckman who had a late growth spurt and so he might have it in his genes to grow a bit more yet. Early in his career I could see him getting games as a third tall because of his kicking skills but down the track I think he could become a reasonable key position defender with some focus on him getting stronger and adding greater physicality to his game.


46. West Coast

West Coast may lost Brown next year and could stand to add another tall defender to their ranks. McIntosh is a local guy with some potential in him.

Kamdyn McIntosh
DOB: 3/4/94 Ht: 192 Wt: 78

I originally had McIntosh a fair bit higher than this based on potential but when push came to shove I couldn’t do it. The old eyeball test said he belonged in the third round and that’s where I have taken him. He has a name as a shut-down key position but at the next level I see him more as a third tall / running utility. He did not have good games in the televised games at the Champs but in the other game against Qld I thought he did pretty well.

After the Champs, McIntosh started to put together some really nice games and finished the year with four senior games where he averaged 18 possessions per game. He was given greater licence to get up the field in senior company and showed some ability. He had a very nice 23 possession and 8 mark game in week 21 which I am sure a few recruiters noticed. The ability to not only finish the year strongly but to step up to senior level and actually look a better prospect I think will have teams’ attentions.

What teams would also have liked was his performance at the Combine. I am sure most would have been aware of his elite endurance capabilities but it is always good to perform when the pressure was on and McIntosh delivered with 4th in the 3km and 9th in the beep. He also managed 7th in the kicking test which is a nice result for a guy who is nominally a KPD. At 192cm and with a slim build it is probably unlikely that he will be a KPD at AFL level. His running ability though demonstrates some ability play other running roles and if his kicking is good so much the better.

At the Champs I thought his kicking was good and he regularly brought out a nice flat kick. He probably didn’t get it as much as you would like but when he did he showed reasonable decision making and execution. He tended to look to kick most often with the handball only brought out as a last resort. His handballing was usually under pressure and in those situations he looked pretty scrappy. With the ball in hand and under a lot of pressure he tended to panic a bit.

McIntosh is a relative newcomer to higher level AFL coming from a soccer background. He has moved around between positions a fair bit spending time up forward and through the middle of the ground before settling into defense this year. He has shown good development over the last couple of years and there was definite improvement between the beginning and the end of the year. There is no reason to think that there is not considerable development left in him.

He played on bigs and smalls at the Champs and had some problems with both to tell the truth. He was outsmarted a few times by smalls and was outmarked by KPFs with superior size and strength to himself. He is a pretty good mark of the ball himself but against guys who were quite a bit bigger than himself he gave up a few goals from marks. For the AFL he needs to get stronger and needs to learn to use his body better and not get caught out of position on the spoil. With the ball on the ground he is a little hit and miss. Sometimes he can be really clean and look great whilst at others he will fumble a few times in a row. I probably haven’t seen him enough to make a call on which is more indicative of his play usually.

McIntosh is currently working in a bottlo 4 days a week and doing a bit of early morning work as well. You have to think this would give him a fair bit of perspective and motivate him to make the most of any AFL opportunity that comes his way. As I mentioned above I see him as a third tall type possibly moving up onto the wing where his run and height could be a real asset to his team. His skills are neat and he has shown an ability to step up in class. I would have no problem giving him a go if I was picking from about 40 onwards.


47. Sydney Swans

Okay I went with a KPD a couple of picks ago and this time I have gone with a KPF. Bourke will need a bit of time to develop but I think with time he could be a very nice player. Anyone who saw him in the under 16s is probably going to agree with me. I draft for potential here and Bourke has the most of the KPF prospects left on the board.

Jordan Bourke
DOB: 11/11/94 Ht: 193 Wt: 84

Bourke is one of the younger players available this year and in fact played at the under 16 champs last year as an overaged player after missing a lot of 2010 with an injured knee. He was one of the players of the under 16 Champs in a very good Qld side and lead all players with 18 goals and 31 marks in his 4 games. In those 4 games he averaged 18 disposals per match and was so impressive that he was named in the AIS this year as well as being named as one of the potential top 25 in the AFL Prospectus. This year he played in a reasonable Qld under 18 side which was good enough to beat WA but generally he looked less impressive and has consequently fallen down the draft list. He has trained with GC and went down to Geelong and played in their VFL as a potential father/son selection for them. Nothing eventuated with either GC or Geelong and so now it looks like he is on the market with a bit of an ego deflation thrown in for good measure.

Bourke played as a full forward this year with Tickner playing as the CHF for the most part. I am not sure this suited Bourke too much against the bigger bodies he had on him in the under 18s this year. He is a mobile marking target that I think would have done better further up the field. That's all good in theory of course but in practice he lacked the endurance base to fully use his mobility and other weapons and hence he was stuck closer to goal. I see him starting as third tall at AFL level whilst he builds up his frame and to do that he needs to build his engine and quickly.

Bourke's weapons are his ability to get separation with his speed and agility. In both of those he is elite for a key position. At the Combine he as just outside the top 10 in both the 20m and the agility testing. The one thing with him though is that he is used to his speed doing the work for him a bit and when he is up against someone just as quick as he is he can struggle and will disappear out of games. He does not have the tank to work his man around the ground and use repeat leads to get him marks. He is a very solid mark of the ball and has nice hands above his head. He is a pretty slight guy but he also shows good strength in contested situations and at the Champs he was moving bigger guys around pretty well. As he builds his bulk I think the ability to use his size smartly will be another significant string to his bow.

When the ball is on the ground he is a very difficult proposition for his defender to handle. He is quick and very agile and not only that, he has very good hands below his knees for someone his size. At the Combine he finished equal 5th in the clean hands test which is not exactly true science but in this case it was vindication of what my eyes were telling me. He is very clean off his toes and once he gets it he balances quickly and can find a target with an opportunity to score.

Despite his lack of tank and somewhat unusually for a "star" junior forward he can actually do some pretty good defensive work. He will chase hard and with his pace he can be pretty effective with the defenders often not expecting to be shut down by the KP quite so quickly. It is very much burst efforts at the moment but I see his willingness to do the defensive chasing as a big positive for when he has the engine to work with his smaller forwards to terrorise AFL defenders. His tackling technique is good.

Kicking wise he is not the most solid option in front of goal and can spray them a bit on occasion and will miss a target every now and then as well. With that said he is usually pretty effective at picking up goals. He is also not the most clever finisher you will find but again he is pretty reasonable for a key position.

For me I think I would take a chance on Bourke. He is relatively young compared to a lot of options available and his athleticism would be very appealing. He has shown he can be an elite player against guys his age (they are actually closer to his age than most of the KPDers he came up against this year) and the potential he has is much higher than most who are going to be available where he is likely to be taken.


48. North Melbourne

Yeah I have given North a lot of flankers / wingers. So what they need them and on talent they have all been warranted. Same has to be said with Sumner.

Tim Sumner
DOB: 9/10/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 83

Sumner is a really interesting prospect and it will be interesting to see where he goes. There is a mass of potential there it just comes down to whether it will be realised. He is the brother of Byron and it’s easy to forget that Byron was equally very talented before struggling to adjust to the demands of AFL training and living in Sydney. Will there be similar problems with his brother? Tim has only been in an elite program for a little over a year preferring to play for fun in a Div 5 amateur league before going across to WWT midway through last year. He decided to have a real dip at it this year and whilst it is obvious he is still a bit raw there is a mass of potential there. He had a break-out game in a SA trial game against Port which got a lot of attention from the scouts in attendance. He went on to play only one game at the Champs missing a second match against Metro due to the flu.

He played mostly as a midfielder prior to his bout of the flu and during that time he played up forward and on debut up forward he finished with 8 goals. After that he split time between the forward line and the midfield and for his one game at the Champs he was played as a forward. In the AFL I think his skill set might see him playing behind the ball as a HBFer who floats up onto the wing. For a young indigenous guy he is quite uncharacteristically tall and relatively solid. Build wise he reminds me a bit like Magic McLean for those who go back a few years. In an AFL environment he should put on muscle and bulk well and should be a nice build for an AFL player.

There is a lot of flash in the way Sumner plays. He does things others can't and he judges where the ball is going to end up better than others around him. The number of times the ball just happens to bounce right for him is not luck. He reads what is going to happen and then backs himself to run to the right spot. At the Champs I watched him stun the ball with his one available hand when he would otherwise have been unable to do anything with a player in his back pocket and then make a lovely play once he had got a bit of space. That was very smart play and that is the kind of thing which happened regularly in the SANFL. Sumner is very quick off the mark and has a long stride which might actually make him seem quicker than he actually is. He had a really odd 20m time at the Combine. He was very quick in the first 5m but was very slow for the next 5m before finishing strongly in the last 10m. I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in times over the 20m. With a bit of work I think his pace should become a strength but at the moment it may be a little overrated. He likes to get out and have a run and looks very good doing so with his long stride. He is one of those guys who likes to bounce it every third or fourth step though and that needs to be coached out of him as he does lose pace when he bounces and the ball can get away from him on occasions.

What also makes him dangerous on the run is that he has a very long kick on him and can run 40m and then kick it another 60 and break zones apart. He is a heads up runner who watches what is happening around him and will avoid running into trouble and pick his targets nicely. His endurance still needs a lot of work but he looks like a runner (unlike his brother) and he seems willing to work hard during games especially going forward. Provided his motivation is there I think he should be able to get his running up to AFL standard. He did not do the endurance testing at Combine which I take as an indication it would not have been very good.

Like in the open field, Sumner keeps his head up in traffic and works his way through traffic very well seeming to slide through gaps rather than being particularly evasive (although there is a bit of that there). When he is tackled he maintains balance and clears his arms nicely. He is strong in contests and holds his feet well. He has good spring in marking contests and has really strong soft hands. He likes a fly if the opportunity presents itself and is more than capable of pulling them down. He is balanced and adjusts in the air really nicely. Even when he goes under the ball he adjusts well and has that bit of extra stretch that allows him to still make a play on the ball. He moves around up forward quite a bit and is a very capable lead when he decides to lead. He gets separation pretty easily at SANFL under 18 level but had a few more difficulties against Vic Country.

He is not a big tackler but is more than capable of nailing them if he gets the chance. He will need to work harder on his chase in the AFL but I think this is a bit of a function of endurance and the level of game he has played up until recently.

Sumner's skills are pretty good. He is a right footer and in addition to his long kicking he is also quite good in short to intermediate ranges. What I really like with him is that he picks when to deliver the ball really well. Up forward he has good goal awareness and is a good finisher from all angles on the set shot or from a snap. His set shot is good and from a tight angle he is an excellent finisher using a traditional set shot.

If you had just seen Sumner at the Champs you would be right in wondering what the fuss was about. Sure he flashed a few really nice things but they were pretty few and far between. Playing back in the SANFL though in the under 18s he showed a good ability to get the ball averaging 19.5 disposals a game over his 11 games. He is also still very new to an elite program and lacking in the endurance which would potentially allow him to take his game to another level. He has a lot of potential and there is a good reason why that remains a bit untapped as yet. Put him in a full time environment and you could have a very nice player on your hands.

 

[Quigley]

49. Melbourne

Melbourne is all about building their midfield in this draft I think and Gribble is one of the most underrated prospects out there. I rate this kid and think Melb would be smart to grab him here.

Tom Gribble
DOB: 17/10/94 Ht: 182 Wt: 75

Gribble somehow missed selection for Vic Country at the Champs this year but rather than drop his bundle used it as inspiration for what ended up being a very good year for him. The Geelong Falcon ended up being the runaway winner of his club’s best and fairest and made the TAC Team of the Year. Over the year he averaged 28 possessions, 5 marks and 3 tackles per game and scored B&F votes in all but one TAC game he played. He also finished the year very strongly including having 40 possessions in Geelong’s Elimination Final win.

Gribble reminds me quite a bit of Tom Rockliff in the way he plays the game but in fairness to him he is quite a bit more athletic than Rocky is. Gribble is not a super athlete but his pace is solid around the 3 flat mark and his agility, jumping and endurance would all have to be considered as good (top third of those tested). Whereas there were some understandable athletic concerns with Rockliff those concerns should not exist with Gribble. In addition to the athletic side of things Gribble is also a reasonable size which is another knock on many TAC stars who don’t make it at the next level.

What Gribble is, is a ball magnet who gets around the park nicely always appearing in the right spots to receive. His kick:handball ratio favours the handball side of the equation but he is pretty quick with his hands and he will usually make his handballs count. When he dishes off a handball he will sprint to present as an option to get the ball back if required. The linking game is probably the strength of Gribble’s game. He is not a breaking the lines kind of carry and kick player but he will help teams work through zones nicely.

His kicking is a fair bit like Rockliff’s as well notwithstanding he is a left footer and Rockliff is a right footer. Both those guys are really smart footballers who read the play very well but neither has a strong leg. In fact both would probably have below average velocity on their kicks and tend to loop them more than you would like to see attempted at AFL level. It would be preferable if Gribble flattened his kicking out a bit but it has not hurt Rockliff too much. Both also tend to use short to intermediate kicks most often and are quite damaging in doing so. Gribble can go long when he needs to but he doesn’t have the best touch on his long kicks. One thing I have noticed with his kicking is that he is prone to getting caught not being able to get onto his left. He is very one sided and on that side he has to be well turned to that side to be able to get it away effectively. This might be something that he needs to work on.

Gribble is an outside in player who whilst he gets a lot of his possessions on the outside will also get in and mix it up in the ruck contests. He is a bit undervalued in this regard and I think he could be a decent clearance winner at the next level. He is clean below the knees and has nice quick hands that allow him to feed the ball out. He might not ever be a renowned inside player but I think he could be quietly effective.

It is worth noting that Gribble is a diabetic and by necessity is a very disciplined kid and that is a bit like the way he plays. He is not a flashy player but just quietly goes about finding the ball time after time after time. The ability to find space in zones is a bit of an underestimated skill and Gribble certainly has that. There is not a lot else that really stands out about him but there are also few weaknesses and I can see the team that ends up taking him looking very smart in a few years.


50. Western Bulldogs

No choice in this one. Bullies have committed to taking Hunter as a father / son and got reasonable value.

Lachlan Hunter
DOB: 13/12/94 Ht: 181 Wt: 79

This was a father son and is probably a fair price to pay for Hunter. I was not overly impressed with him at the Champs but since finishing his school football he looked pretty good finishing the year in the TAC. He only played in 8 TAC matches and averaged a very nice 26.3 disposals per game. The fact that he was BOG in his last two games would also have made the Bulldogs recruiting staff feel happier about picking him up.

As mentioned, at the Champs I did not think that much of him and he tended to blend in with the crowd of so-so Metro players. My notes generally noted some pretty scrappy work and I didn’t really have too much positive to say. He averaged 15.5 disposals per game across his four games and did not have much influence really. He noted himself that he was surprised by the increased pace at the Champs and that is the way it looked as well. He tended to rush things a bit and did not execute. If he struggled with the pace at Champs level there is a legitimate question about how he will handle the AFL game which is several rungs up on the speed front.

Hunter is used to being one of the quicker players when he plays at school and TAC level. At AFL level he will still be considered nippy but he is not going to be much above average. He does not have a particularly quick first step but once he gets going his pace is pretty reasonable. At the Combine he tested excellently for agility (1st with a time of 8.00) and whilst this is not always evident in his game he does move through traffic pretty well. He has a big sidestep when he decides to pull it out and when he uses it he is very hard to tackle.

In other testing his jumping was nothing to write home about and his endurance testing was poor particularly his 3km run. Note however Simon Dalrymple (Bulldogs recruiting manager) hinted there might have been reasons for the poor endurance testing and he thought his endurance was fine. Personally I think it needs a fair bit of work.

The question for Hunter then is where he will play. Most seem to consider him as a midfielder who will spend time up forward. Personally I think he will end up a full time forward. He reminds me a bit of Stephen Milne in the way he operates up forward although admittedly he does not have Milne’s marking ability nor his penchant for kicking bags of goals. What he does have though is the agility, nippiness and game smarts to be dangerous. He is also very confident when he gets a chance at going for goal and likes to use the dribble kick for goal from tight angles much in the way Milne has perfected. His hands are good below the knees and whilst his work under physical pressure needs to improve there is a good chance that it could work out.

He will likely end up built very much like Milne but does need to improve his strength. Even allowing for his current size I do not rate his strength. He can at times look strong over the ball and at others be moved aside entirely too easily. It is similar in his tackling where his technique is not great and too often he gets into a battle of strength which he regularly loses.

Through the midfield he is probably an outside-in player. He does get around the ruck contests a bit but is more a receiver in those type situations rather than a primary ball winner. He does like to get out and run and does his best work when he has some space. That is when his bounce doesn’t cause him issues. He currently has an unusually high bounce which he is prone to use every 5 metres and this causes issues with it not coming back where he wants it and him having to focus on the ball rather than his options. As a consequence most of his runs seem to be shorter 15 to 25m in length before kicking. When he has his head up and watching what is happening ahead of him he is a good decision maker and pretty good user of the ball. He tends to hit short to intermediate targets quite a bit and he has hurt factor on these kicks due to the men often being in good position to affect the scoreboard.

In tight situations his disposal skills drop and he can look pretty rough around the edges. His hands remain fairly clean but he does get a bit flustered with his disposals especially when he is under physical pressure. He is a left footer who will use his right when absolutely necessary but he is not particularly strong on his non-preferred.

One thing I do like about him a lot is that he plays with pace in whatever he is doing. He is going to have to do that at AFL level and he has certainly been practicing that at junior level. He is not a guy who just coasts when he has the ball rather he attacks the game. Although he did struggle a bit at the Champs I think he adjusted well when he got back to the TAC from school football and worked on what he needed to work on and finished the year very strongly. He is by all accounts a very willing worker and someone who is willing to take feedback well.


51. Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs do need to address their KPD stock in this draft and Frost is a guy who has been playing under their nose the last couple of years. Perhaps he is more of a rookie shot but if they think they might need someone to step in and play this year then they will probably need to take him in the ND.

Jack Frost
DOB: 25/2/92 Ht: 194 Wt: 87ish

I was very keen on Frost last year having him in the 30’s from memory. What I didn’t know at the time was that he needed to have two hip surgeries in the offseason that wiped out all the offseason and a fair chunk of this year. Frost was out of action completely until March and then had to slowly build his running back up again. He came back to the VFL reserves in round 6 playing the following 12 games before eventually getting a senior call up in the last game of the regular season.

At that stage most would have been thinking that he would need to spend another year in the VFL before anyone would look at him but he finished the year so well that I am sure many teams would have been calling up film and seriously reconsidering him. Frost is a key position defender and in the debut game this year he did a great job on Mitch Brown from Geelong and switched over occasionally to Vardy shutting him down as well. From there it was onto the finals where he was excellent conceding only 3 goals across three games. In the first game of the finals he was matched up on Matt Little (leading goal kicker in the VFL last year) and restricted him to one goal, in the following match Lucas Cook was held goalless and in his final match he kept Dan Galea (leading goal kicker in the VFL this year) to a very respectable 2 goals. Across the finals Frost was probably the form KPD in the VFL.

Frost was similarly turning heads at the end of last year with his strong finish to the year after a slow start spent mostly in reserves. During that slow start he got what is colloquially called a boot up the behind and he was much the better player for it. He can drift off into bad habits but is apparently pretty coachable and will respond well to feedback. This year was a bit of a different situation in that he was recovering from his operations and needed to recuperate and then slowly built himself into appropriate shape. He did a lot of work on his running and was apparently appropriately diligent in his recovery.

Athleticism has always been Frost’s main selling feature and that remains the case even after his injury. He did State testing the year before last and ran a 2.98 in the 20m showing he has pretty good speed for a big guy particularly off the mark. His jumping was also very good figuring in the two 10% to 15% for the two footed and running jump. What let him down though was his endurance testing which was particularly poor. Last year he struggled early to meet the performance targets set for him at Williamstown but once he started to hit them his performances improved dramatically. I think it is evident that he is not a natural endurance athlete and this year even after the recovery was completed it took him quite a long time to build his engine up to an acceptable VFL level. He will need to continue to work hard on his engine and I think it is likely that he would always struggle on the really hard running AFL forwards like Nick Reiwoldt say.

He is a tall agile defender with a wiry build a lot like Dustin Fletcher. I don’t think he has the frame to ever be a massive guy but I am not sure you would want that with his athleticism. He uses his pace well and has become a very capable one on one defender. He is better against leading options rather than power forwards where he can run and spoil rather than having to wrestle. The timing on his spoils is good and he manages to get a fist in really nicely. His tackling is also something which I would now consider good and much improved on his junior days. On the park he shows good competitiveness and determination and will drive himself to go with his opponent and not let him get the better of him.

He has been played predominantly down back at VFL level but he has played a fair bit of forward at lower levels. I think he is likely to be an AFL defender but he does have the marking skills to be switched up forward if needs be. He has a nice set of hands and is an excellent judge of the flight of the ball. He positions himself very nicely to mark where only he can and often wins contests on the back of superior judgment. Skills-wise there is still a bit of a way to go but they are solid now and are another thing which has improved a lot since I saw him as a junior. Given his issues with injury there is no reason to think they will not continue to improve.

I think a few teams might be interested in him this year and the Bulldogs were talked about last year prior to him needing surgery. Others I am sure would be more comfortable waiting until the rookie draft or even wanting to see him play a full year of VFL before deciding. Personally I quite like him and think there is a fair bit of potential there and with him being fit and ready for a full preseason the likelihood of him improving significantly is high. He has shown the ability to shut down some of the best VFL forwards running around and he has the package to perhaps be able to do the same at AFL level.


52. Essendon

Essendon I think could stand to add some pace to their side and if nothing else Haynes would do that. He is a development prospect but one with a high upside and well worth the risk here.

Matthew Haynes
DOB: 19/3/94 Ht: 190 Wt: 76

The AFL is all about trends and following what the teams at the top of the ladder are doing. The two grand final teams this year each had an elite speed guy playing a significant role on the wings and I think other teams are going to want someone who can play a similar role for them. An obvious candidate for that role this year is Haynes who didn’t have a fantastic year but he fits the role that Jetta and Smith have made fashionable. It will likely take him a while to get up to that level but he has the potential to do so.

Speed is the big selling feature for Haynes and he has plenty of it. He is an elite sprinter and like many sprinters whilst he is good over 20m (2.89) he is still on the way up. His top end speed will leave most of the 20m guys behind in the dust. He won the 30m repeat sprint at the Combine and if he gets out in space in the AFL there are very few who are going to be able to go with him.

He loves to break the lines and run with the ball and loves a bounce of the ball although he is probably not the best exponent of the bounce you will ever see. I am sure there will be plenty of practice in that art in his future though. Haynes also has a tendency to run a little far and can run himself into trouble or into tight angles whilst waiting for something to happen ahead of him.

He executes well at speed and unlike many he does not slow down significantly to kick the ball. His kicking on the run is good although he does tend to drop the ball point first a bit too much and the occasional one can come off a bit askew. He goes long very often into the forward 50 but when he lowers his eyes he can pick out targets pretty well with a nice low travelling kick. When he slows down his kicking does not improve to any great degree and I would classify it as average. By hand he is okay but again nothing to write home about.

He is very solidly in the outside category and will find a position on a flank or wing at AFL level. He has improved his defensive work a bit this year but it is still not a strength. He has played mostly as a back this year but personally l like him further up the ground or in the forward half. He has good goal sense and is a capable finisher. He is also a pretty nice mark of the ball and with his size and pace he could be very difficult to contain.

The main problem with Haynes at the moment is that he is more of an athlete than a footballer. He lacks a bit of the footy smarts that would allow him to take full advantage of his athletic gifts. Up forward he doesn’t really present as a leading option and on the wing he has difficulty finding the ball. Despite being in the AIS the last two years he seems to lack a feel for the game. I note he is a private school boy and so has not been in the TAC elite environment as much as others. This might be something that a recruiter can hang his hat on in selling him to a team.

Someone is going to take him though. The combination of elite speed and very nice height is going to intrigue more than a couple of teams and someone will take him and see what they can make of him. I would expect that they will need to be patient with him though.

 

[Quigley]

53. Melbourne

Melbourne will want to move Grimes up into the midfield even more this year and could really use another good small defender. One of the best defenders that no-one has heard of is Jesse Wallin and he would do very nicely in a developing Melbourne side. He would be able to be a stopper for the quick smalls that Melb could use.

Jesse Wallin
DOB: 1/2/93 Ht: 182 Wt: 78

Okay for my completely under the radar guy I am going with Wallin. He played for Qld as an overaged player this year and quietly did a very nice job. I paid a bit of attention to him then but he really grabbed my attention with a really good game for the Lions in the NEAFL semi-final in Darwin and then again in the grand final against the NT. The Lions fielded a very strong side in those games and Wallin held his own in that company and looked up to standard playing alongside AFL players. His defensive work against some very good NT small forwards allowed some of the senior Lions in that match to move further up the field and the defensive unit did not miss a beat. He missed most of last year with injury but he came back this year very strongly for Morningside winning a Rising Star nomination in week 7. I accept that he will probably be taken as a rookie at best but imo there will be a lot worse prospects taken in this draft and he deserves to be talked about at least.

Wallin is a defensive minded small who can play all over the ground. He played a lot in defense or on the wing for his club whilst he has also played as a defensive forward on occasion. For Qld he played a lot as a small defender but also played on ball quite a bit and did very well. Watching him against Vic Country and WA he won his share of clearances when he was on ball and showed good clean hands below his knees and an ability to accelerate out of the contest. His awareness in the contest was good and his tackling was a feature. He is not a big guy but he brought a real physical aspect to the Qld midfield when he was in there.

His pace is his big selling feature with his game. He wasn't invited to Combine or State Screening but from watching him play I would suggest he would be in the low 2.90s over 20m. He is hard to catch when he is in space and when he is matched up on someone he is virtually never beaten for pace and when someone does manage to get a step on him he shows very good ability to close them down. His agility also seems very good and his leap pretty good for a shortish guy (in AFL terms).

I would rank him with anyone this year as a disciplined small defender. He will go step for step with his man and will wear him like a second skin. He gets his fist in very nicely to marking contests whether above his head or out in front of the man and does it so that he rarely gives away the free. He is smart, agile and small forwards seem to find him very difficult to get separation on. I watched him match up on Whitfield and I thought he was excellent in that contest and whilst Whitfield beat him once or twice I thought Wallin generally had the better of the match up. When playing as a defensive forward he understands the role and whilst he looks for avenues for goal he will get in there and hunt down the ball carriers when the ball is trying to come out. He has a great ability to blind-side ball carriers when they are not really aware that there is a threat.

He is an excellent tackler and brings a real physicality into his game that is only going to become more pronounced as he matures. He wraps and takes the momentum of the player really nicely and slings them to the ground with force. He will need to be careful not to fall foul of the sling tackle rule in the AFL but at the moment you do not want to be tackled by him. He pins the arms nicely and is very tenacious and will drop off one man to take another if needed. I think he might be the best tackler of this year's group.

He is reasonable by hand and by foot. He tends to drop his head and eyes a bit when he kicks the ball which is a bit odd but he does tend to his targets pretty well. I think he is working on that though as the head drop was less pronounced I think toward the end of the year. He likes to get out and run and bounces pretty well. He executes his kicking well on the run. He slows slightly to kick and this allows him to balance and I have not noticed it being a problem with guys coming from behind. Marking wise he does not have the best hands but he does do okay and does not mind a fly for a mark in fact I remember him getting right up there on someone's back against WA right in front of me. He dropped that one but he will back himself to have a go if the ball is there to win.

This is a guy who does whatever his coach wants him and will sacrifice his game for the betterment of the team. He spoils, tackles, shepherds and generally just does all the things that would make him a good teammate and help is team to win. Teams need guys like this who can shut down the opposition's most dangerous smalls and Wallin I think has some potential to get out and counterattack. Wallin has one of the better highlights packages you will see on youtube (apart from his kicking style) and I would recommend people have a look.


54. Adelaide

Adelaide has some good utility types at the back but could use a bit of athleticism in their smalls. I have dropped Wright down well below where many would have him but now seems about right for him.

Nathan Wright
DOB: 16/2/94 Ht: 185 Wt: 78

Wright was highly rated at the beginning of the year and is still highly rated by many. He is a HBFer who likes to mix it up and break the lines coming out of defense. He suffered a broken hand that kept him out early in the year but that may have been to his advantage when all is said and done as that allowed him to go away and work on building his engine. When he came back into his side his improved running ability would have been a big positive for teams looking at him. He also suffered a hamstring injury at the end of the year which kept him out of the TAC finals. I am not sure how teams will view a soft tissue injury at this stage. Is it nothing or a sign of things to come?

Wright has a good build for a modern footballer and has the athletic capabilities of a prototypical player. He is lean but strong and is quick with a good leap although I note he tested poorly in this regard at the Combine (maybe a hangover from the hamstring injury). He is a long strider and has a pretty good top end speed. He is reasonable off the mark but he does take a little while to get up to full speed. Once up to speed he will not be run down very often. He is someone who really seems to relish getting out and running and taking the game on when he has the chance.

It is hard not to be impressed with the way Wright will attack a contest. He is a hard at it type who seems to relish the physical aspects of the game. He is very good as a third up in a marking contest and has good soft hands above his head. He plays taller than is listed and times his jump at the ball very nicely to take it at its highest point. With the ball on the ground he loves to swoop in and gather at pace and his hands seems good in that situation. If the ball is bobbling around with players around it he is more prone to fumbling.

Wright probably likes the contest too much and does not get enough uncontested possessions for the position he plays. He is only a 15 possession per game type of player with half of those being contested. For a HBFer this is not a good percentage and you would want him spreading better and to smarter spots. He does not play with great endurance but I note he tested very well in the 3km at the Combine (although less well in the beep). It is likely that he simply lacks the knack of where to run to get open. This can be taught but I do not think it is ever likely that he will be a high possession player.

The biggest problem that I see for Wright is his disposal skills, particularly his kicking. Style wise his kicking is not great. He holds the ball a bit high, which I don’t see as a big deal but then he releases the ball a bit high taking both hands off the ball rather than one guiding it down to his boot. I see the latter issues as more fundamental and leads to him having very inconsistent accuracy on his kicks especially in the short to intermediate range. Wright is not a newcomer to the game so his kicking style would be very entrenched and so it will be difficult to break him out of his bad habits. When he is rushed his kicking tends to be worse. If he is out in space he is capable of delivering a nice long kick to his forward’s advantage. At the Champs though I thought he lacked confidence in his kicking. By hand he looked similarly shaky and prone not delivering to advantage. Overall he lacks a lot of class with his disposal skills.

With his skill issues I struggle to see him playing as a HBFer at the next level and he does not really have the skill set to be a ball winning midfielder. I think his best bet is to convert to a tagger. His engine would need to be topped up but his skill set is pretty conducive to a run with role and if he is lead to the ball he could force his man to chase the other way. If he could sort out his kicking though lots of opportunities open up.


55. Essendon

I think Appleton might take a while to break into the side but the upside that he has is significant and when Jobe hangs up the boots Appleton should be mature and could be a big possession winner with the next generation of Bomber mids.

Matthew Appleton
DOB: 14/2/93 Ht: 184 Wt: 75

If you were going to take a kid based on what he did in the state based under 18 competitions this year Appleton would have to be right up there with anyone. He played as an overaged player for WWT this year and had some massive games in the under 18s including in the Grand Final where he was BOG. In the grand final he had 38 touches and a phenomenal 16 clearances. That performance was not a one off either. Over a 3 game stretch to round 12 he had 141 disposals across those games including 49 disposals, 12 clearances and a goal in round 12. He played 15 under 18 games this year and was in the best 10 times. He had a further 8 SANFL ressies games and was in the best on 1 occasion.

Appleton is an inside ball winning machine at under 18 level. He reads the taps very well not just his own rucks work but also that of the opposition ruck. In the grand final the opposition ruck was Brodie Grundy and Appleton was sharking his taps all day long. He finds space in the congestion around the contest very well and he moves with great evasiveness in the contest once he gets the ball. He has an array of spin moves, baulks and swerves that allows him to work through contests exceptionally well. He can get hold of the ball and get the ball out of the congestion as well as anyone you would see at this level. He is not a big tackler tending to hunt the ball more than sweating on the man but he does pick up 3 or 4 a match simply be being around the ball so much.

Appleton has improved his outside game a lot this year and this has allowed him to rack up the possessions as much as he does. His endurance seems to have gone up and he gets to good spots to receive. He is not hugely damaging with the ball in hand but he is certainly not a liability with the ball either. He is a right footer who will use his left when he has to and is solid with it if not particularly comfortable. He has a reasonable set shot for goal with which he is pretty accurate although his style is not the most fluid you will see. On the run he can put it through from 50 although that is about the extent of his range. From that range he tends to wind into his kicks a bit.

The height and weight figures I have up are from last year and it would not surprise me if he had grown a bit since then. Too me he looks to have nice size for a midfielder and although he is still a bit on the lean side he is putting on weight and I expect him to be a pretty reasonable size when all is said and done. In tight he seems to have a nice burst over 5 to 10 metres which he uses well but I am not sure his top end speed is anything fancy. His endurance I am comfortable with although I expect it to go up a few notches when he gets to the AFL.

Okay so there has been a lot of good stuff written above and you could rightly ask why this kid is not being talked about at the pointy end of the draft. The main reason, apart from playing in SA, was that he was not able to play anywhere near as well when he went up to the SANFL reserves level and he did not get any seniors games. He seemed to struggle with the increased physicality of the senior players and perhaps the pace as well. His coach seems to imply that he needs to improve his strength to become more effective in the clearances in senior company. If he struggled to deal with the physicality and pace of the SANFL reserves then how will he go against AFL players who are several levels above what he has faced before?

He is also a kid I think will benefit a lot from a move interstate. I don't think those close to him are doing him any favours by getting in his ear and being unrealistic in telling everyone including him how good young Matthew is. He could be a really nice player I think but he needs to accept that he has significant deficiencies in his game and be open to taking the feedback and then going away and working on them.


56. Carlton

Okay I am getting to the stage where I am less worried about needs and just want to get players into slots. Graham I have falling and Carlton seems like as good a destination as any for the Morrish Medal winner.

Nicholas Graham
DOB 12/6/94 Ht: 183 Wt 79

I see Graham as one of those midrange mids who do a lot of things pretty well but does not have a big selling feature and demands he be picked. He is a midfielder who is capable of spending time forward or back and has a tendency to blend into the background a bit. Against lesser opposition in the TAC he did well picking up the Morrish Medal but that is often a sign of someone to avoid rather than pick.

What Graham did very well though was take a pretty average Champs performance and build on it to finish the year very strongly. He had a very good finish to the year particularly in the finals for Gippsland and was very influential in the grand final picking up 3 goals for a losing team. He averaged 25 disposals a game and showed that he could really get the ball.

What I took away from the Champs was that he was a not particularly strong clearance player and had questionable decision making. He is a worker though and was one of those who was still running at the end of games but when the heat is on it was other blokes who were doing the heavy lifting. Like I said though he showed definite improvement over the year and the finals performances would assuage some of the concerns that teams would have had.

As I mentioned against better opposition he was not a big clearance winner and certainly behind the likes of Whitfield, Crouch and Wines in the VC team for influence in this area. He did win a bit of it though and when he did he showed nice quick hands and he is reasonable at clearing the contest. Graham will attack the contest and look good doing it but he is not consistent and will more often be seen standing flat footed or following his man to the contest. He is not a particularly physical presence in the clearance contest but he is one of the more effective tacklers. He averaged over 6 tackles a game in the TAC. He gets quite a few tackles because he follows his man into the contest rather than chasing the ball himself but if you put him in a defensive role that would be okay.

His defensive game has improved this year and he did do some tagging at times at the Champs. I noticed that he got Toumpas in the SA game and didn’t do too badly on him at times although his own offensive game suffered. He played some time in the backfield at the Champs and was okay but gave away a few goals with poor decisions.

Graham’s kicking can be a bit hit and miss. He can at times look very good with his kicking, making damaging kicks at pace and at others he will kick it straight to an opposition player with two men open. Similarly his handballs go astray or hit the deck a bit too often for me to be comfortable of his skill level. Again though, he often brings out enough really nice handballs for you to think that there is potential there.

One thing I really do like with Graham is his gut running. Where others are stopping he pushes himself through and is getting to contest ahead of others. In the back end of quarters he is at his best and that should stand him in good stead for his transition to the AFL. Pace wise he seems like he has enough for it to be considered neither a liability nor a weapon. His jumping is quite good and he is a very good mark for his size. He has nice hands above his head and judges the ball well in the air. After he marks he makes good decisions about whether to go back or to play on. He is a solid shot for goal.

Overall he is a decent prospect but not one I am confident is going to be a difference maker at the next level. He looks more like a meat and potatoes type who will be a serviceable part of a midfield rotation. His skills though need to improve otherwise he will always be in danger of being supplanted by someone who doesn’t make the skill errors that he does.

 

[Quigley]

57. Gold Coast

McDonough does not fit the profile for a Clayton pick in the slightest but they could honestly do a lot worse here. GC need some goal kicking help and McDonough can give them that working off of some of the guys they will have up forward.

Matthew McDonough
DOB: 24/1/94 Ht: 180 Wt: 84

McDonough is one guy it would be easy to see fall in this draft because he is a forward who is a bit short, a bit chunky and not particularly athletic. He reminds me a lot of Tom Rockliff in his draft year. Rockliff played primarily as a forward and did it exceptionally well including starring with Sidebottom in the TAC GF but his non-traditional body shape and athleticism counted against him and he was overlooked in the ND. It is not out of the question that this could happen again with McDonough although I think someone is likely to take a punt on him.

McDonough lead SA in goals at the Champs both this year and last. After Menzel went down this year McDonough was very impressive averaging 18.4 disposals and 3.4 goals per game. The fact that he was not as prolific in the SANFL reserves and under 18s probably won’t help him. He did play a variety of positions in the SANFL competitions but he was still mostly up forward. He had 9 games in each of the reserves and under 18s. He averaged only 11.1 disposals per game in the under 18s but despite the low numbers was named in the best 6 times in his 9 games (as well as once in the ressies.

At the start of his career I expect McDonough to continue to play in a forward pocket. He is a very smart footballer and whilst I think it might take him a while to compensate for the increased size, strength and pace of AFL defenders I think he will get there. He is not a one trick pony up forward and can mix it up between leading, body on body contests and crumbing depending on what is going to work. He might struggle to be effective on the lead at AFL level as he is not particularly quick and is not able to get much separation even at junior level. He is nippy off the mark but not really anything more than that and the closing speed of most defenders will trouble him.

At the moment McDonough does tend to use his body quite a lot to create marking opportunities. He has a pretty powerful build which he used well at junior level to hold his position and protect the drop zone. He judges the ball very nicely in the air and has a nice set of hands. He does perhaps use his strength a bit much but if it is effective I can understand him wanting to continue to use it. His crumbing work is usually first class. He works to get the classic front and centre position when the big guys fly and he gets himself low to collect. He has really clean hands with the ball on the deck and is a pretty good snap of the ball getting foot to ball pretty quick. His goal sense is very good.

Kicking is a strength of McDonough and with his clean hands are the primary reasons why many people, myself included, see his future at AFL level probably lying up the ground. He is good off either foot and is an elite deliverer of the ball into 50. He is capable of punching it in there when needed but he also weights it nicely into space to draw the man onto it. On his non-preferred he is also a pretty good field kick and is reasonably accurate snap with his left as well. He tends to wave the ball around a bit on his approach to his set shot but he is an accurate kick and is good from 50 (probably not much more than that).

McDonough has played a bit through the midfield and down back this year and has shown some proficiency in the middle of the ground. He needs to get a lot fitter to make a permanent move into the middle of the ground but I could very much see that happening after a couple of preseasons spent building his engine. He could be a Chapman or Rockliff type who are pretty solid guys who are very effective in the middle of the ground and dangerous when they are resting up front. He can win clearances and works in traffic well. Quite a bit of work would need to be put into his positioning around the ground as well as the defensive aspects of playing through the midfield (as well as up forward now that I think it) but there could be a significant pay off.

Overall if a team picked McDonough that would be getting a very smart footballer who falls a little outside the mould of what a footballer should be in the current game. Notwithstanding that I do think he has a good chance to be effective if someone takes a punt on him.


58. North Melbourne

Nelson might not be a carbon copy of Boomer but he is similar enough to play that role when Boomer retires.

Shane Nelson
DOB: 11/5/93 Ht: 175 Wt: 71

Really Nelson has had an excruciating year off the park from missing selection in the draft to the death of a mate and then the death of his dad, he has had to deal with a lot of heartache. Credit too him though he has stood up through it all and is now every chance to get picked up this year. On the park he has been very good. After starting the year in the reserves he worked his way into the WAFL seniors in round 7 and played 14 games from there on. Over those 14 games he averaged 25 possessions a game and steadily increased that average over the year. He was third I think in the official Rising Star awards but won the BIC Rising Star and was 4th in the Work Clobber WAFL Player of the Year. To say he has come a long way with his game is an understatement.

Last year my review of him was full of comments like “for me he does not play as well as he measures” and “at the Champs he averaged 22 possessions per game but for the most part he was pretty invisible having little actual impact on the games he played.” I apparently wasn’t the only one who thought this way and Nelson very much took the feedback to heart. This year he has remodeled his game on the likes of Murphy and Swan (his comparison) and aimed to become more of an impact player. Rather than merely gather meaningless possessions he wanted to take the game on more and use his elite speed to break the lines. It meant a reduction in his TOG and being used as a burst player but that was what it was going to take.

So the risk was taken and it has paid off handsomely. Not only is he doing exactly what he hoped and impacting the play with his possessions he has also still been able to gather a lot of the ball. The game style that he was playing last year was not effective in senior company with him being only able to average 12 possessions a game in the ressies. His new style though certainly was very effective at WAFL level and should be at AFL level as well.

Nelson is an outside/in midfielder who is capable of playing some time in the forward line and is probably likely to start his AFL career up there as a defensive small forward who will probably get up the ground a bit. He has elite speed (2.82 in the 20m which was fastest at the State Screenings) and agility (7.85 which was the best of anyone tested this year) and is a willing tackler who closes quickly and attacks the player with the ball. In the WAFL this year his tackle numbers were not great but I he has shown a willingness to tackle in the past and I could see him changing that with a change in role.

The biggest issue I see for him is his size. He has actually shrunk two centimetres this year (he measured in at 177cm last year) and is still a very light 71kgs. He really needs to put on some muscle to be effective at AFL level and over the last year has not really shown any propensity to do so. He will find himself getting brushed aside by the big bodies in the AFL unless he bulks up quite a bit.

Endurance is another issue for him. Admittedly it does not seem to affect the way that he plays as he covers plenty of ground, gets to contests and wins a stack of the ball but his beep test was relatively poor. I think his gut running is actually pretty good but his endurance base is not particularly strong. So plenty of gym and running in his future I think.

Last year he had a reputation as being dangerous around goals when playing up forward but I did not really see much evidence of that and again this year he managed to finish with only 11 goals from his 14 games. As he played more time through the midfield he tended not to get forward as much but even still I would have hoped for more. If he is played as a small forward I think he could pick up a goal or two a game but I would not expect more than that on exposed form. His hands are pretty good overhead but he is not a big jumper and I would not say he is an aerialist. He judges the ball pretty well off hands and his cleanness below the knees has seemed to improve this year. His goal sense seems okay and perhaps with some intense work on his forward skills he could potentially be more of a factor than I anticipate he will be.

When he has time and space his kicking is usually good although he is prone to occasionally fluffing a kick. He is very strong on his non-preferred left and you would have to classify him as being dual footed. He had an exceptional kicking test at the Combine last year managing to hit 29/30 (1st overall and equal to the record) which does indicate that I might be a bit harsh on his kicking. Like I said above his kicking in space is good but I think his disposal skills under pressure is not a strength although I think improved from last year.

Nelson is at his best when he is linking up and has time to consider the options ahead of him and execute. As mentioned above he uses his pace on the outside much more effectively this year and is now a real, ultra-quick line breaker. On the inside he has worked out how to use his pace a bit more and gone from a very bullish inside player to one who is a bit smarter and will hit the contest and try and use his pace to advantage. There is still plenty of work to do on his inside game but I think he has improved and is more composed and clean than last year. He was very light playing against men and was buffeted around quite a lot. This is something which I would expect to always be the case against AFL opposition. Despite that though he does his fair share of the ball and he is definitely not solely an outside player.

Overall I like Nelson a lot more this year than last year although his weight worries me a bit. I think given a chance he could be a very interesting player for an AFL club.


59. Geelong

Scarlett and Gillies have departed. Chances are strong that Geelong will take a defender or two in this draft. Johnson is one who I quite like.

Ryan Johnson
DOB: 12/9/93 Ht: 191 Wt 91

Johnson very quietly had an excellent Champs for Qld deep in defence. He and Wyld were the rocks that the Qld game was built on and, although they regularly gave away height, they made their opposition work very hard for every opportunity. That was particularly the case in the Qld win against WA when Johnson was given the job on Hogan and Howson at different times. Johnson was right with the big guys when he needed to be but also zoned off really nicely as well.

He is a good judge of the ball in the air and does not get caught up overplaying his man and not being aware of where the ball is. He chooses good times to leave his man and when he does he impacted the contest and more often than not cutting out the ball. He has good hands for a defender and is a good mark of the ball but he doesn't overplay the mark. He makes good decisions about when to mark and when to spoil. His spoiling is good and he will crunch it.

Johnson is strong through the body as you might expect for someone a bit older than most of the others at the Champs. With that said he matched up regularly against guys who were bigger and weighed more than him and he showed the ability to go body to body with them and win more often than not. He is a bit shorter than is ideal for a KP but there have been plenty of elite KPDs who were and are his height although admittedly the modern game is moving away further from guys this height. His height is something which makes him a more marginal prospect but I think if someone takes a chance on him they could find themselves with a really nice player.

At the moment he is much better defensively on the big guys rather than on the quicker medium and small forwards. He was showed up for pace by a few like Wood from Vic Country who were able to get separation on him and did not allow Johnson to play read and react as much as he could with the bigger blokes. I think opposition teams worked out that they needed to make him accountable and changed up how they played him. Early in the Champs he did a good job of being the cleanup guy at the back not really playing as a loose man but rather zoning off or even leading his man to the ball by reacting quicker to the pass coming in. He was less able to do that in a couple of later games I saw.

Kicking wise he is a good long kick and he is someone who occasionally brings out the big barrel. He will have an occasion errant kick but overall I thought he was a pretty good kick.

It’s interesting to note that he played a fair bit of time up forward in his 10 NEAFL Colts games. He finished the year with 14 goals, 5 of which came in one game against Aspley. Having a second string to his bow might get him a couple more looks but realistically I think he ends up at the defensive end if he gets the chance.


60. Fremantle

Another KPF prospect for Freo? Why not. Bringing three in at once gives them a better chance of one actually working out.

Alex Howson
DOB: 25/5/94 Ht: 195 Wt: 80

It is going to be interesting to me to see where Howson goes in this draft as I expect there will be a great divergence between teams in how they rate him. He is a thin key position with good pace who kicked a swag of goals in the WAFL Colts this year. Sometimes teams go stupidly high with guys like this (see Grant, Cook and lots of others) and all it takes is one team to really rate a kid after all.

Personally I see him as a third rounder or lower. WAFL Colts was not particularly strong this year and Howson was able to take advantage of this to lead the league with 58 goals. He showed himself capable of kicking bags and this should get him drafted. Interestingly at the Champs be played only as a key position defender in the games I saw and he was not a particularly good one. People have commented that he was a shut-down defender at the Champs but they must have been watching different games to me. What I took away from the Champs was that even when Rodda was getting absolutely smashed by Daniher the coaching staff still did not have the confidence in Howson to swing him onto the main target.

Down back I thought Howson lacked a physical edge to his game and shied away from putting his body in. He tended to let his man run where he wanted and tried to back his pace in to compensate. Given that he was most often on the secondary target he was not punished too badly but the potential was certainly there as he looked done a few times I noticed. With the ball in hand I also thought he lacked awareness of what was going on around him and is prone to being run down.

Coming out of defense he seems to go long on most occasions and almost always to a contest. When did go to a shorter target his skills and decision marking were not great. He went sideways or made little chips that did nothing for the receiver. It got the stage where I expect the WA the coaching staff just ended up telling him to kick it long whenever he got it and that is what he did. The weighting on his kicks is also pretty variable and it is not uncommon for his kicks to fall short or go over the top.

Okay by now I guess you can conclude that I don’t rate him as a KPD. Up forward though there is a bit more to like although again there are some issues. Howson kicked goals this year and that is his one big selling feature. The fact that he was accurate would also have been noted by teams. He kicked 58 goals 27 behinds and looked comfortable and confident in front of goal. If he gets chances in the AFL then I am confident he will finish. What I am less confident about is whether he will get those chances.

Howson is a guy with excellent pace for a key position and he tested that way at State Screening but he does not use it much at all. He rarely seems to have separation even on guys significantly slower than himself. It could be a function of his endurance which is in the poor range but it looks often like he does not try to lead hard. Instead he relies on his height and his leap which are good at this level but are not out of the ordinary at the next level.

Howson is a good mark of the ball with really nice hands in contested marking situations. He times his arrival at the ball very well and protects the drop zone better than most of the KPFs this year. Still he does not tend to arrive with much momentum and I can see him getting spoiled a lot early. He also tends to get into body on body contests too much and given he is likely to always have a relatively thin build that is not a recipe for success at AFL level. AFL defenders are going to move him to spots where he is not dangerous with ease.

He does have the pace to be effective at AFL level but he needs to build his endurance base to allow him to lead hard and provide repeat leads. At the moment you don’t get that and he needs to learn to go hard. He does have a pretty good feel for the dangerous spots inside the forward 50 he just needs to be more decisive about getting there and be able to do it more often. Increasing his endurance would also him to improve his defensive work up forward which at the moment is lackluster at best. He averaged less than a tackle per game at Colts level and usually took a break whenever the opposition got the ball.

In the Colts this year Howson was very much a full forward and he averaged only 9 disposals a game. He did not get outside 50 and provide an option going forward to help out his midfield. Quite simply he did not work hard enough in that aspect of his game and in many others and if he is going to have success at the next level that has to change.

 

[Quigley]

61. West Coast

I think West Coast could use a bit of pace and elusiveness coming out of defense and Rioli would work well in the wide open space of Subi I think.

Ben Rioli
DOB: 9/10/93 Ht: 179 Wt: 62

I wasn't really considering him until I watched the Lions play the NT in the NEAFL semifinal. In that game he really impressed me competing against AFL level talent albeit young AFL talent. He was not quite as good in the NEAFL grand final but he still had moments which made you sit up and say "hmmm, give him a bit of time in an AFL team environment and you could really have a player on your hands."

What you are getting with Ben is not a Cyril clone. Ben is a running half back flanker and if you watch him play I defy you not to see a lot of Chris Yarran in the way he plays. His gait is very similar to Yarran's as is his pace and agility. He slides well through traffic and when he gets out in space he can explode and be very hard to catch. For a team looking for some run from the back it would be hard to go past Rioli in this draft.

Defensively Rioli certainly needs to improve. He is not very accountable and tends to float around at the back relying on his ability to read the play and beat his opposition to the fall of the ball. He does a pretty good job of it but at the next level there are going to be plenty of forwards who read the ball as well as him. He might rely on the opposition being more worried about him going the other way than of making him accountable. He is very outside at the moment and shows no interest in getting into contested situations. He is a receiver only, a bit like Yarran, and needs to go and get it when it is his turn.

Skills wise he is pretty good. He has a relaxed kicking style and nice touch on his kicks. By hand he is pretty good. If there is one criticism of him, skills-wise, it is that he handballs too much and needs to use his kicking more often. He has reasonable length on his kicking and when he is up and running his kicking has major hurt factor. When he gets the ball at back he is composed under pressure and takes nice options and doesn't panic. One thing that is pure Cyril is Ben's little around the corner kick that he regularly pulls out. Ben has that tight turn and punch kick with great feel and when you see it you immediately recognise it as textbook Cyril.

Rioli has really nice pace but his endurance needs to be upped several levels. When he is not in the contest he tends to walk around too much not working into position to receive or impact the contest. Personally I don't mind that provided you can be confident that he is prepared to put in the hard work necessary to build his tank to an acceptable level. If he does the work suddenly he is able to use that pace, run and skill consistently and you have a cheap Yarran or Jetta on your hands. He also definately needs to put some weight on his bones. He will never be a particularly big man but he does need to put on some weight in order to absorb the contact that he will receive at AFL level.

Ben has some definite class about him and he has shown that he has the ability to step up and perform as the class of his opposition also improves. He will be cheap and I hope someone has been paying attention because they could get a real bargain. He is probably most likely as a rookie given his weight and the fact that he is from the NT but personally I would draft him in the latter rounds ahead of many who will be taken.


62. West Coast

Okay with the previous pick I have given West Coast some magic down back how about a little spice up forward.

Max Duffy
DOB: 11/4/93 Ht: 184 Wt: 77

Like quite a few on here I would not be surprised if someone took a punt on Duffy at some stage in this draft. It looked like he got himself together this year and started playing some really attractive football up forward for East Fremantle in the WAFL. He is still not a finished product by any means and if a team picks him up they can mould him into the kind of player they want him to be. At the moment he is a little too adventurous in what he tries to do out on the football field and needs to be reined in to do the simple things first and not just go straight to the low percentage play. He fancies himself as Stevie Johnson but needs to have a look at all the other things Johnson does and not just the spectacular plays.

Still if you wanted a kid who has flair and can do the spectacular this is someone you should be looking at. He had a few injury issues over the year including early in a couple of games but managed to finish with 33 goals 32 behinds from the 13 games he was fit throughout at a tick under 15 possessions a game. Not too bad for a small/medium forward. He played in the ressies grand final for East Fremantle and managed to pick up 4 goals.

When you watch Duffy play he just looks like one of those players who things come easy for. He seems to know where the ball is at all times and how things are going to play out. He often doesn't seem to be trying hard which could put some off but it may be just the way he plays. He is very confident in the way he goes about things on the football field almost arrogant. He comes from a basketball background and like many basketball converts has good awareness of where everyone is around him and uses that well to get where he wants to go or to find his man.

Duffy has elite speed and reasonable agility and this makes him a difficult proposition to contain in the forward half. He improved his endurance base a lot this year and whilst it is in the pretty good category it could stand to go up another notch or two and during games he does look knackered fairly often. Another thing that is going to have to improve is his defensive pressure. He is a non-entity as a tackler (only 6 tackles in 15 games) and that quite simply is not going to cut it as an AFL small forward. He needs to start working both ways or even if he is taken in the draft he will not see an AFL field in the big dance.

His field kicking can be good but he needs to work on getting a bit more consistent velocity on his kicks. He is capable of getting it there with pace but often he just loops it relying on his touch to see it to the target. AFL defenders love those sort of kicks. With that said Duffy does often deliver into 50 very well and leads his forward onto the ball nicely putting it out in front and making him go get it. His kicking for goal is solid but could improve a bit and some of the spectacular things he does tends to result in behinds quite frequently. Still he has a very good goal sense and in a full time AFL environment he just might to start playing the percentages more and kicking the spectacular goals frequently enough to please everybody.

I think there is every chance he might pique someone's interest and they will take him to see what they can get out of him. His talent level is probably up there with the very best it just comes down to whether someone wants to take the chance on him and whether that talent can be converted into something that will help a team.


63. North Melbourne

Someone will take Pongracic and he could be thrown into the North midfield and do okay. Worth a punt.

Jason Pongracic
DOB: 21/4/94 Ht:182 Wt:86

This is a bit lower than most have him but from what I have seen of him this year I am probably being a bit generous. He has been suffering from an adductor injury for most of the year so I am giving him a break but really on exposed form there are plenty who will be taken lower than this who have shown more. Pongracic has the name though and is an AIS player and I am sure someone will pick him up.

Pongracic I see as one of those physically mature kids who looked like a world beater at under 16 level but never really got much better and looked more and more ordinary as the other kids caught up to him physically. This year he split time between the forward line and the midfield and was up forward a lot at the Champs. He continues to be a very solid unit and I think will remain stronger than most guys at his position once he fully matures at AFL level. The problem is though that he is not particularly tall for an AFL player and is somewhat athletically challenged.

Being 182cm, not being able to jump over a piece of paper and well as being a bit on the slow side and lacking natural endurance is not a recipe for success as an AFL forward. Even at under 18 level he rarely gets much in the way of separation and at AFL level the taller and quicker defenders are going to be camped in his pocket the whole time. A junior level he relies on his body strength to create opportunities and he might be able to do similar on occasions at AFL level but it is unlikely that he will be able to consistently succeed with this one trick. At junior level he is a very good judge the ball in the air and is excellent at clearing the drop zone with his body and arms so he is the only one with a play on the ball. At AFL level I probably put a third tall type on him who is taller and just as strong and without much in the way of pace he is going to have a difficult time. Even at TAC level he was not a prolific goal kicker (10 goals from 13 matches) and it is difficult to suddenly see that changing when he steps up three levels.

His kicking for goal is okay but does not impress me all that much. There is not a lot technically wrong with it (he does wave the ball around a bit but steadies nicely before he actually kicks it) but he just seems not a confident kick. His range is fairly variable with him being a pretty long kick on occasions when he gets onto it but coming up short on other kicks you would expect him to get.

His best chance of being a good AFL player is as an inside mid. He has good attack on the ball and is a very physical presence at the bottom of packs. He is not the most gifted extractor but he works hard and by sheer force of will he is often successful. He is strong over the ball and difficult to move with reasonable but not great hands in tight. His vision and awareness around the contest is probably only average for an inside player.

His endurance is a significant limiting factor for his midfield career. He has made significant improvements in this regard this year but he is still a fair way off the better runners even at junior level. A lot of players can build their tanks slowly and get there and that is what he will need to do. His endurance at the moment limits his spread from clearances and his lack of pace does not help either. At the moment his spread is quite poor for a midfield prospect.

He captains his TAC side and his coach really seems to rate him as a leader. It is those kind of intangibles that he will be hoping bump him up a bit.


64. Adelaide

It wouldn’t hurt the Crows to add some pace to their defensive unit and Dick would offer them that.

Matthew Dick
DOB: 3/11/94 Ht: 188 Wt: 86

Dick has quite a bit going for him but what he is not is a key position defender and the Metro coaches did him no favours playing him there as often as they did at the Champs often at FB. He has played as a close checking defender for most of the year averaging only 13.8 disposals per game in the TAC. He has shown himself capable of playing tall or short in the TAC but realistically I think he will play on medium forwards in the AFL.

Dick’s main selling feature is his speed. Over 20m he timed in the top 10 at Combine with a 2.88 sec time. His 30m repeat sprint time was a bit down on that kind of result but it was still pretty good. In games situations Dick certainly plays to his speed using it to close down opposition players when defending and to run away from the opposition when attacking. He is a little manic with his speed in attack, liking to get out and try and break the lines and take on tacklers. This can be to his detriment as he does run himself into trouble a bit. He has a bit of a change of direction that he likes to use when deciding where to run but once he is up and going he is not the most evasive player in the world. He is quick certainly and if he gets away he is not going to be caught but he will be nailed a fair bit at the next level whilst he learns that trying to bust through tackles is going to result in frees going against you a fair bit.

I noticed Dick taking quite a lot of the kick ins for Metro and I have to say I did not understand that. He is a reasonably accurate kick but not particularly long. Further I would classify his decision making with the ball in hand as being fairly poor. He turned quite a lot of ball over and if not turned over resulted in the receiver being under pressure. He is also prone to leave the ball hang in the air a bit too much and allow the attacker to make a play on it. Mostly though his actual kicks are fine it is just the decision about where to kick it that makes you wince. On the other side of the skills equation I like his long handball skills. He can get out a really nice quick long handball when needed and that will set his man away. He uses his handballs quite a bit when he has the chance and loves to sprint and receive back. During the Champs in one play I noticed him receive and handball off three times sprinting the whole time from half back up onto the wing. That is the kind of things clubs will be keen to exploit.

Dick is a pretty recent basketball convert and does not really have a great feel for where to run to receive at the moment. He is not a high possession winner and given he won’t be a key position at the next level he needs to become more of an option going forward. With his pace he could be very dangerous in that kind of role but he needs some serious coaching about how to exploit that aspect of his game. His endurance will certainly need some work and this will help but he tested reasonably for endurance at the Combine and had the engine to be getting more of it than he has to date.

Another strength of Dick’s game is his marking. He tested well in the jumping at the Combine and uses that in games situations nicely. He generally likes to have his man in front of him and he uses his body really well to control the contest and watches the ball into the hands exceptionally well. His hands are soft and he controls the ball coming in really nicely. When the ball hits the decks he is quick to react and has really clean hands being able to collect and go before others react. He won the clean hands test at the Combine and personally I really like a one touch player in the backline as it just tends to relieve so much pressure if you are not fumbling the ball and giving the attacker time to make a play on you or the ball.

Defensively Dick is pretty good on guys close to his size. He struggled on a few of the really big blokes at the Champs but when he had a fighting chance he used his pace and strength to blanket them pretty well. He got caught out of position a few times but his pace allowed him to shut down the danger quickly. Against the big guys though he really had no idea what to do and was letting them mark the ball too easily and getting nowhere near it with the spoils.

Dick has not been super impressive this year but he does have a collection of skills and abilities that I think will intrigue a few teams and I expect someone to pick him up.

 

[Quigley]

65. Greater Western Sydney

GWS can stand to add a few more key position types to their squad and Close is a reasonable prospect who can play a variety of roles.

Michael Close
DOB: 30/7/94 Ht: 196 Wt: 85

I watched Close in both his Champs games and he is one guy I had was fairly unsure of. I liked his height and the way he got around the ground but I thought he did not have the impact on the game that he should have given the advantage his midfield had over the NSW and Qld teams. He is likely to be in demand I think largely because of his ability to play as a key position and second ruck. He suffered an ankle injury which restricted him to only two matches at the Champs and affected him on the run home. He had a strong start to the year but his injury did not allow him to build on that through the year and I think he falls down a bit as a result.

Close looked to have trimmed down a bit going into the Champs and looked much the better for it. I thought he lumbered a bit in some of the earlier footage I saw of him but at the Champs I thought his agility was much improved. He tested better than I thought he might for agility and I think this could have been a pleasant surprise for teams looking at him. He measured but did not test because of injury at the Combine but unlike others he went to SA to do the State Screening so that he could show what he could do. This came just a few days after his grandmother's funeral and I thought showed very good dedication. I think the move paid off for him as he scored higher than I expected for both pace and agility. He is never going to be in the elite in either of those categories but I think he showed that those are not the liabilities that they might have been considered had he not tested.

One area where he was unquestioningly elite was in endurance. He did a 15.5 in the beep at the beginning of the season and whilst he only managed 14.1 at the State testing his ability to run when fully fit is not subject to dispute. What clubs will need to decide is how best to use that ability to outrun virtually any KP he is likely to match up on. It's a shame he is not quite ruck size as that running ability would be very handy in that role. In the ruck he is a solid option and with a little development he should be able to hold his own against most KP / rucks. He is not a real jumper though and might need to adjust his physical style for the new ruck rules. When he gets his hands on the ball he controls his taps pretty well.

Close sees himself as a forward first up but to me I probably prefer him down back probably as a CHB where he can use his running ability. He is good in body on body situations and if the ball comes in on his head he is strong in the contest. He is likely to be tested by quick agile forwards but he should be able to compete well against the pure strength or pure endurance athletes. Up forward I am not sure his game will be effective at AFL level. He is not a leader for the ball but rather relies on out-marking his opponent when the ball comes in on his head. He does not protect the drop zone particularly well and takes the ball most often directly above his head rather than out in front of his eyes. He is also prone to mistiming his jumps and too often spills marks he should take. He does have large hands and when he spills marks he still has a reasonable ability to control where the ball is going. Above all that though the main reason why I do not see him as a forward is quite simply that he does not score enough goals at any level. If you cannot score goals consistently at junior level I think it is a bit much to expect him to suddenly do that against AFL quality big defenders.

Around the ground he shows some pretty good skills particularly by foot. I would think he would be up there with the better kicks amongst the key positions. He makes pretty good decisions and has reasonable feel. Close also does a few nice team things around the ground that are often absent from the games of key positions. He will shepherd and provide blocks to spring his teammates and do other little things like that.

Overall I probably take him and see what I can do with him but my confidence level is not particularly high.


66. Sydney Swans

Sydney take a punt on a kid who could give them something a little bit different and with exceptional pace and agility he could be a difference maker.

Shannon Taylor
DOB: 5/2/94 Ht: 179 Wt: 82

I have to say that Taylor was one of the disappointments for me this year. I watched him last year and thought if he worked on a few things we could have something special on our hands here. Unfortunately he was injured in the preseason and then didn’t really have the kind of season that many expected. Whereas at the beginning of the year you might have hoped that he would see the emergence of a Cyril type forward / mid instead he is looking more likely a Todd Banfield type. Still not bad but a bit of a let down from earlier expectations.

Taylor is a bit of a nugget but he is an exceptionally fast one. He tested last year and had a 20m score of 2.86 and an agility score of 7.99 which put him in the top 2 in each from memory. This year he tested virtually identical in both those areas and so he has lost none of his pace and agility with the weight he has put on. He was also elite over the 30m repeat sprint which would also encourage those looking at him. What will get him drafted is that he is someone who actually plays to his very high speed and agility.

He likes to use his pace in contested situations and will explode onto the ball from a standing start. From there he often bounces his way around until he can find a way out of the congestion. He jinks and steps very well and is very elusive going forwards, backwards or sideways sometimes all in the space of about two seconds. He can step off either foot very nicely. He is prone to waiting a bit too long rather than hitting a seam and going but he is certainly difficult to tackle. He accelerates very quickly in space and changes direction at pace as well as anyone you will see.

I see him starting his career as a defensive small forward and maybe moving into the midfield in time. Like Banfield his pace is his best asset and he uses it very well to hunt down those with the ball. His closing speed is exceptional and he will stick the tackles. Like Banfield he does not have much in the way of goal sense and is unlikely to be a big goal kicker. Also like Banfield he is not particularly clean with the ball on the ground and can be a bit of a fumbler of the ball trying to hit the ball too fast rather than slowing a fraction to approach the ball a bit more in control. He is not bad overhead but he does not really get off the ground much.

He played through the middle a fair bit at the Champs and for the Colts. He got a bit of it at club level but was not a big ball winner at the Champs. In the clearances he attacks the ball well but again is not particularly clean and does not read the ball of hands as well as I would like for an inside mid prospect.

When he gets the ball he goes long virtually every time with hit and hope balls into the forward 50. He has reasonable penetration on his preferred right but lacks feel and touch on his kicks of any distance. He has improved his kicking this year over last but he is still quite a bit short of where you would like him to be. By hand he is pretty good and he seems more composed with his handballs than with his kicks.

His lack of endurance is a major factor which will potentially hold him back. He didn’t test in the endurance stuff this year but last year could manage only 12.11 in the beep test. I doubt he would have tested significantly better than that this year if he had done it.

Clubs drafting him will be aware that he already has a child so if they can get 100 games into him a father/son is already on the cards

67. Sydney Swans

Okay it goes without saying that I throw a Qlder in to finish up.

Andrew Boston
DOB: 23/3/94 Ht: 179 Wt: 76

I am feeling a bit dirty but for probably the first time I am thinking a Qlder is being overrated on BF. Boston is regularly being taken in the mid to high second round in mocks and for me that is overpaying for a guy who will struggle physically to compete at AFL level. On paper he looked good having been named the Qld MVP and made the AA team and he did have some nice games in the NEAFL. In the NEAFL he finished the year strongly picking up BOG in rounds 18 and 20 in the seniors for Broadbeach.

Boston played mostly off half forward and half back this year and was pretty impressive in those roles. His kicking is the feature which he will hope will see him get drafted. He is a kid who has worked on doing the basics right first and built from there. He is good off either foot and he is just a player who hits his targets and usually does a good job of taking the best option. He is not super long but he has definite hurt factor by foot.

Early in the year he played up forward mostly for his club and picked up bags of 6 and 4 goals in senior company. He is a fairly slight guy but he is smart in the use of his body. He will apply his strength at just the right time and place to achieve what he wanted. He is a really good shot on goal being accurate with good goal sense on his snaps. He had a perfect score in the goal kicking test at the Combine and he would be one of the better finishers around goal available this year.

He is a very strong reader of the play wherever he is on the ground and knows where the ball is going and where he needs to go a bit before others. He is also smart about what he should be doing and where he should be running and this can allow him to get a heap of the ball at the levels he has played at to date. At AFL level though he is going to be up against guys who read the play almost as well as him and are all much better athletes. Around the ground Boston has not looked very quick but his football smarts have allowed him to compensate but when you finish in the bottom 10% in the 20m and repeat sprints and bottom 20% in the agility tests you are going to struggle to be a flanker at AFL level. Opposition are going to take advantage of those deficiencies.

His best bet for an AFL career is probably as a midfielder where guys like Rockliff and Sidebottom have overcome poor speed scores with their football smarts. The problem for Boston is that he also is poor in the endurance side of things as well. Unlike Rockliff and Sidebottom, Boston is also a very outside player. I have to say I was a bit disappointed in his play at the Champs largely because he was the "star" of the Qld team but when the game was being decided it was others who were cracking in and trying to win the ball. In the midfield he either sat off the contest waiting to receive or he was following guys like Wines around and not looking to win the ball himself. At AFL level teams want even their outside mids to get their hands dirty when needs be and Boston has shown little propensity to do that even against junior players when he was the captain. What he can do in the midfield though is spread and work to good spots to receive. I think he will provide a link option and pick out targets nicely to get the ball moving. The question will be how much his endurance will allow him to do both offensively and more relevantly defensively.

So basically I see Boston as a slow very outside mid with poor endurance who has a really nice kick but may struggle to adapt to the demands and pace of the AFL. He is not exactly the kind of player I would take highly in this draft.

 

[Quigley]

Okay done. Posting that was certainly more painful than it needed to be. Whoever decided on the 30000 character limit per post makes things difficult for things like this.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Okay done. Posting that was certainly more painful than it needed to be. Whoever decided on the 30000 character limit per post makes things difficult for things like this.

Sucks when you can only fit two players per post.

 

[Harris Specter]

Wow that was a great read. Top work Quigley

 

[Passmore]

Not too fussed at th phantom draft ascpect as it is pure speculation, however I love the write ups. Outstanding

 

[LemmingMaster]

Like your work Quigley, but the last thing Port needs is more flankers so I hope we don't take Thurlow.

Port just needs quality across the park, so not sure they can be fussy with regards to players.

 

[Quigley]

Not too fussed at th phantom draft ascpect as it is pure speculation, however I love the write ups. Outstanding

Yeah that is largely what I do it for and I don't sweat if I am wrong because if you had the teams all in one room each of their rankings would be surprisingly different.

Where I have put them is to give a rough idea where I rate the players and try and match it to a team in that vicinity. Mostly it is so people on here can get a bit of an idea after the draft of what kind of guys they have picked up.