Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Except the draw didn't quite turn out as perfect as it seemed. By virtue of some large position changes it was the Hawks that actually ended up playing the equal fewest games (8) against top 8 teams this year. Hawks only there because of easy draw

Get rid of that logic mate. BigFooty is no place for it.

 

[Matele]

They love understating the obvious.

they're unstoppable.

Wouldn't say unstoppable. Our flag tilt really relies on toppling your lot next Friday. A battle hardened Hawks team who have featured in the past three Grand Finals and are back to back premiers? That's not an easy challenge by any measure.

No matter how much you try to wriggle out of it, The Hawks are in the box seat. West Coast are definitely up there. But it would be a mad man to pick them as favourites going into next week.

If West Coast can lock down a home preliminary next Friday night then sure. But if we don't, I wouldn't be surprised to see us go in straight sets.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Except the draw didn't quite turn out as perfect as it seemed. By virtue of some large position changes it was the Hawks that actually ended up playing the equal fewest games (8) against top 8 teams this year. Hawks only there because of easy draw

Played Hawks once, at home. Draw is easier.

We get a return game, we're second.

 

[Gralin]

And now the real stuff starts

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Played Hawks once, at home. Draw is easier.

We get a return game, we're second.

But you said you're going out in straight sets?

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

But you said you're going out in straight sets?

I don't see the relevance of straight sets and you having an easier draw.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I don't see the relevance of straight sets and you having an easier draw.

Cause you just mentioned you'd beat us again if you'd played us a second time.

 

[Seppo]

This is what the squiggle predicted after round 1:

Hawthorn|2\Sydney Swans|2\Port Adelaide|6\Adelaide Crows|3\Fremantle|4\Richmond|1\West Coast Eagles|5\Essendon|7\North Melbourne|1\Geelong Cats|0\GWS Giants|0\Collingwood|0\Carlton|5\Western Bulldogs|8\Gold Coast Suns|1\Brisbane Lions|1\Melbourne|4\St Kilda|4

As a golf score they were +54, not many people would have predicted the sharp rise of the Bulldogs and that was the squiggles worse tip. It got two correct tips with Geelong and GWS finishing in the exact predicted positions.

I did my own ladder prediction and got +64 and won my work ladder predictor comp thanks to the squiggle as my base and shuffling a few teams. Would have been better of trusting the squiggle...

 

[bomberclifford]

As a Port supporter, the final Squiggle at the end of Rd 23 is depressing.
Oh, what could have been.

 

[Final Siren]

End of Home & Away season 2015

Animated!

Here is the home & away season in not-so-squiggly lines:

How did the squiggle ladder predictor do in 2015? About the same as usual. It was 1.8 weeks ahead of the AFL ladder on average, with a 3.5 week lead in the first half of the season and no real difference (0.2 weeks ahead) in the latter half.

And the highly contentious flagpole!

​

No extra commentary today because I want to leave time for finals previews.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Thank you so much mate for the squiggle. Again very interesting year of squiggles.

So basically the Hawks and Eagles (birds of a feather) are the main teams on form. Swans and Tigers are almost having a love in. Crows look solid. Port looks OK (and 9th). Dogs North thereabouts but not so high. And the ladder leaders coming up a long way behind .

The big birds play off first week, with WC having home ground advantage. Will be fascinating.

 

[CrimsonRaven]

Freo resting players in the last round has severely compromised the final predictions.

Out in straight sets!

 

[SilentHunter_]

Has a minor premier ever been that low on the squiggle?

 

[Millky95]

Has the squiggle crashed for anyone else?

 

[The Speaker]

Has the squiggle crashed for anyone else?

Final Siren your website is borked.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren your website is borked.

It's currently the subject of a Denial of Service attack, according to the host. Will be down for at least 6 hours, maybe more.

I'm not saying it's Champion Data... but follow the money, people.

 

[SilentHunter_]

It's currently the subject of a Denial of Service attack, according to the host. Will be down for at least 6 hours, maybe more.

I'm not saying it's Champion Data... but follow the money, people.

**** the guy that did it .

 

[Millky95]

I'm not saying it's Champion Data... but follow the money, people.

You should really have a weekly spot in a newspaper with a small break down for each club as well as what you'd have in your Monday post (minus the gif)

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

It's currently the subject of a Denial of Service attack, according to the host. Will be down for at least 6 hours, maybe more.

I'm not saying it's Champion Data... but follow the money, people.

I have seen Champion_Data post in the fred. Surely they're not responsible.

 

[Millky95]

Quick breakdown based on Final Siren 's graph

Better Offense and Defense:
Hawks
Swans
Eagles
Crows
Power
Tigers
Bulldogs
Kangaroos
Geelong
Collingwood
GWS
Melbourne
Saints

Better Offense, Worse Defense
Brisbane

Worse Offense, Better Defense
Freo

Worse Offense and Defense
Essendon
Carlton

Can't tell:
Gold Coast

 

[Handsuper47]

Fremantle were one line away from completing their shape!

 

[Stromageddon]

Without crunching the numbers, it appears as though more teams have improved than have declined, and those that have improved have improved to a greater extent than those that have declined.

Basically what I'm asking is, does the model naturally lend itself to some sort of inflation?

 

[inbetween]

Without crunching the numbers, it appears as though more teams have improved than have declined, and those that have improved have improved to a greater extent than those that have declined.

Basically what I'm asking is, does the model naturally lend itself to some sort of inflation?

Short answer to that is yes.

You'll see at the start of every season that the team's starting position is lower than their squiggle positions at the end of the previous season to address that.

 

[Stromageddon]

Short answer to that is yes.

You'll see at the start of every season that the team's starting position is lower than their squiggle positions at the end of the previous season to address that.

Ah, makes sense.

I'd definitely be interested in an all-time squiggle that never resets. Just for curiosity.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Without crunching the numbers, it appears as though more teams have improved than have declined, and those that have improved have improved to a greater extent than those that have declined.

Basically what I'm asking is, does the model naturally lend itself to some sort of inflation?

yes
then it deflates in offseason