Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[iluvparis]

I see that north is rated a better flag prospect than the dogs... interesting

Because the Dogs don't kick big scores

 

[iluvparis]

How hard is it going to be for Carlton to overtake Richmond's squiggle in the last round?

 

[gothecrows]

So win by less vs Richmond than Adelaide beat WCE and you should get your wish.

Going to be made harder by Sloane being out, since we'd have to beat west coast by a fair bit more than Sydney win by to take top spot.

 

[Gavin Excell]

GWS' win over Dockers has impressed the Squiggle. They are one of few teams in the premiership zone

 

[sataris]

Swans and Crows looking like they're attacking the premiership zone In a pincer movement.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[The Swans Blog]

Because the Dogs don't kick big scores

North can't win a game to save themselves

 

[Glenno23]

Final Siren it says GWS smashed Freo in Perth, but game was at Spotless. Does this change the weighting of the win?

 

[nobbyiscool]

If the Eagles can't win it (and they can't without Natanui), I hope Adelaide win for a couple of reasons.

1) it'll be an amazing, movie-type story after the death of Phil Walsh.
2) it'll be a banner year for the squiggle if they get up! (There's a thread here with someone questioning if they're the only one who thinks Adelaide are favourites. Clearly they aren't a fan of the squiggle!)

 

[GreyCrow]

Going to be made harder by Sloane being out, since we'd have to beat west coast by a fair bit more than Sydney win by to take top spot.

Focus should be on winning. Top spot is a luxury we can hope for but not that big a deal ( ok of course it is )

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

Focus should be on winning. Top spot is a luxury we can hope for but not that big a deal ( ok of course it is )

It's funny, because I think the Swans would prefer to play the Cats and the Crows the Hawks in the first week of the finals. So it would probably help both teams if you somehow managed to pinch top spot.

 

[Pessimistic]

It's funny, because I think the Swans would prefer to play the Cats and the Crows the Hawks in the first week of the finals. So it would probably help both teams if you somehow managed to pinch top spot.

and the cats and hawks would prefer whats seen as their 'best chance' in the PF rather than in a QF

Mind you a home PF would be nice, but just what is it worth with four teams split on percentage?

 

[Final Siren]

How hard is it going to be for Carlton to overtake Richmond's squiggle in the last round?

This nightmarish scenario mainly depends on Carlton, since the Tigers will struggle to do much worse than the tip of Sydney 100-46 Richmond. The Blues are only tipped to beat Essendon 84-64, though, so would move a fair way if they deliver a belting.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren it says GWS smashed Freo in Perth, but game was at Spotless. Does this change the weighting of the win?

No, sorry, that's my mistake in the write-up, not affecting any charts or ratings.

 

[Hodgey 15]

P.S. Special mention for Dwayne Russell this week, who at the end of the Adelaide/Port game was shouting about how the Crows could pinch top spot on percentage. Yeah, if they kicked 10 goals in three minutes. NICE MATHS DWAYNE.

And I love how just after that idiot sprouted that rubbish they threw up an on-screen graphic totally contradicting that.
Nice stitch up whoever.

 

[Final Siren]

This table is a perfect example of just how unlikely it was that the top 5 teams were going to win all of their remaining 4 games.

The chance of the top 4 teams all winning this week is just over 35% and 3 of the top 4 are playing teams outside the 8!

Yep, squiggle has:

Team | Opponent | Chance of victory \Sydney|Richmond|92%\Adelaide|West Coast|73%\Geelong|Melbourne|78%\Hawthorn|Collingwood|69%

So even though they're all pretty likely on their own, the chance of all four coming up is 0.92 x 0.73 x 0.78 x 0.69 = 0.3589 or 35.9%.

The percentages in the above table are slightly different to what you'll see on the live squiggle as I haven't uploaded the latest version there yet. Instead of using the quadratic regression line I posted earlier, it still uses the simple linear algorithm of 0.51 + 0.01 x MARGIN.

This year I entered squiggle in the Monash Uni Probabilistic tipping comp (currently 5th out of 169!), which is frequented by many well-known AFL computer tippers, and learned a lot about how to judge the likelihood of tips, i.e. how likely a tip is to be correct.

So far I've found:

• The predicted margin is massively important (like you'd expect): teams predicted to win by big margins really do win a lot more often.
  
  
• The round number is fairly important. Squiggle tips early in the season are 3-5 percentage points less reliable than usual, while tips in the later rounds are about 2 percentage points more reliable.
  
  
• While squiggle tips get less reliable the further in the future they try to predict, it's not a steep drop-off: They only lose 3-4 percentage points over the course of the whole season. So you can actually tip Round 23 reasonably well way back at Round 1. Goes to show how teams don't usually exhibit huge form swings in a single year.
  
  For example, this round, there are only 2 games that the squiggle is tipping differently today than it would have tipped back in Round 1: Back then it would have tipped the Eagles to beat Adelaide and North Melbourne to beat GWS. There's a fair chance one of those will actually be right, which would mean that the Round 1 squiggle tips would be just as accurate as the Round 22 squiggle tips, i.e. it has learned nothing of practical value from watching the actual season, at least in regards to tipping winners.

 

[the_big_sav]

Final Siren how did the squiggle go when richmond had their run into the finals in 2014? did it see it coming? how many wins did it take for the squiggle to jump on?

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren how did the squiggle go when richmond had their run into the finals in 2014? did it see it coming? how many wins did it take for the squiggle to jump on?

GREAT QUESTION because it reminds of when it was fun to analyze Richmond.

The short answer is no: When Richmond were 3-10, squiggle didn't think they would make finals. It did rate them as the 9th best team (HAHAHAHAHAHA), only a smidge behind Adelaide (#sorichmondy), which is far better than their ladder position at the time of 16th. So it thought they were a reasonable team. But to make finals, Richmond had to win every one of their final 9 games, and squiggle wouldn't even tip a flag favourite to do that.

Round | Richmond W-L | Finals Chances | Next Opponent \14|3-10|0.54%|St Kilda\15|4-10|0.41%|Brisbane\16|5-10|0.34%|Port Adelaide\17|6-10|0.26%|West Coast\18|7-10|2.40%|GWS\19|8-10|2.74%|Essendon\20|9-10|4.03%|Adelaide\21|10-10|17.30%|St Kilda\22|11-10|21.18%|Sydney\23|12-10|100.0%

Their chances actually decreased for a while as some of the teams the Tigers had yet to play got better (e.g. Essendon destroyed Collingwood in R17).

But the West Coast win was huge, and highly rated by the squiggle because it was one of those interstate defensive triumphs it loves, with the Tigers keeping the Eagles to only 42 points.

 

[iluvparis]

For example, this round, there are only 2 games that the squiggle is tipping differently today than it would have tipped back in Round 1: Back then it would have tipped the Eagles to beat Adelaide and North Melbourne to beat GWS. There's a fair chance one of those will actually be right, which would mean that the Round 1 squiggle tips would be just as accurate as the Round 22 squiggle tips, i.e. it has learned nothing of practical value from watching the actual season, at least in regards to tipping winners.

Not the only ratings system that could be accused of this

 

[the_big_sav]

GREAT QUESTION because it reminds of when it was fun to analyze Richmond.

The short answer is no: When Richmond were 3-10, squiggle didn't think they would make finals. It did rate them as the 9th best team (HAHAHAHAHAHA), only a smidge behind Adelaide (#sorichmondy), which is far better than their ladder position at the time of 16th. So it thought they were a reasonable team. But to make finals, Richmond had to win every one of their final 9 games, and squiggle wouldn't even tip a flag favourite to do that.

Round | Richmond W-L | Finals Chances | Next Opponent \14|3-10|0.54%|St Kilda\15|4-10|0.41%|Brisbane\16|5-10|0.34%|Port Adelaide\17|6-10|0.26%|West Coast\18|7-10|2.40%|GWS\19|8-10|2.74%|Essendon\20|9-10|4.03%|Adelaide\21|10-10|17.30%|St Kilda\22|11-10|21.18%|Sydney\23|12-10|100.0%

Their chances actually decreased for a while as some of the teams the Tigers had yet to play got better (e.g. Essendon destroyed Collingwood in R17).

But the West Coast win was huge, and highly rated by the squiggle because it was one of those interstate defensive triumphs it loves, with the Tigers keeping the Eagles to only 42 points.

thanks mate.

to put into context, what currently has a 0.54% chance of happening and a 0.26% of happening?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

thanks mate.

to put into context, what currently has a 0.54% chance of happening and a 0.26% of happening?

Rolling a 1 on a 185-sided dice and rolling a 1 on a 385 sided dice

 

[Dirty Bird]

thanks mate.

to put into context, what currently has a 0.54% chance of happening and a 0.26% of happening?

Ill take a guess and go
0.54% - Essendon avoiding the wooden spoon
0.26% - Fremantle receiving the wooden spoon.

 

[patfootball04]

Yep, squiggle has:

Team | Opponent | Chance of victory \Sydney|Richmond|92%\Adelaide|West Coast|73%\Geelong|Melbourne|78%\Hawthorn|Collingwood|69%

So even though they're all pretty likely on their own, the chance of all four coming up is 0.92 x 0.73 x 0.78 x 0.69 = 0.3589 or 35.9%.

How do I see these probabilities on the Squiggle website?

 

[gothecrows]

Ill take a guess and go
0.54% - Essendon avoiding the wooden spoon
0.26% - Fremantle receiving the wooden spoon.

Would require Fremantle losing by around 190, and Essendon winning by the same - I would put the odds of that happening at something more along the lines of 0.00000000001%

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Would require Fremantle losing by around 190, and Essendon winning by the same - I would put the odds of that happening at something more along the lines of 0.00000000001%

I wonder when the last time a team has lost by 190? You'd be able to work out what the actual probability is.

Highest margin ever is coincidentally 190. So has only ever happened once.

5 games over 150 point margin in the last 5 years. Or once a year.

That's 1 in 396, which is only half the equation. So the actual probability based on results is 0.0000063769. If I've done the math correctly. And that's only to get close to the the required margin.

 

[The Swans Blog]

You also have to consider Essendon winning by 190...