SJ
Premium Platinum
With fewer shots at goal. And after trailing at every change.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Very true. But you'd expect Carlton 1995 to beat anybody. They finished the H&A season on top and 4 games clear of #2.
I don't think it's a paper-scissors-rock scenario, where one style always beats the other; I just think there might be an edge there.
Thought id give you a straw to hang onto. There was an early season win after junkyard dog had pronounced you premiers already and a late one when you dropped your bundle cbf remembering which year each was in
Would have been 2006. That was when they were fancied as Premiers early on (foolishly), after winning the NAB Cup, then walloping Brisbane and North in the first 2 rounds. We certainly were nowhere near Premiership fancies in early 2007. Garry Lyon with his customary judgement predicted us to win the wooden spoon. Whoops.
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And the following 14 games, at the G in front of 60K+...amazing to think back then what the rivalry would rise to now.
- Jun 17, 2010
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Hawks Flag to lose again at this stage, are easily the best team once again. It's up to the rest of the teams to catch them.
- May 4, 2013
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GOD DAMMIT WHY DID YOU SAY THOSE WORDSSS!!!!
NOOOOOOOOOO
SJ
Premium Platinum
Final Siren
What is the furthest any team has escaped from the origin? After Round 20 2011, Collingwood look to be at about 77 Offence and 95 Defence (about 122 units from the origin). Is that as good an effort as there has been?
What is the furthest any team has escaped from the origin? After Round 20 2011, Collingwood look to be at about 77 Offence and 95 Defence (about 122 units from the origin). Is that as good an effort as there has been?
tribey
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We'd already beaten Collingwood at the MCG that year and the Pies would've been lucky not to be gone by halftime given their lead in, which included extra-time at Subiaco. 3 ridiculously tough weeks of footy. Hopefully Buckley would've put his hand up to play with that hamstring too, which wouldn't have been an ideal preparation for Collingwood in general.
I reckon we run all over them in that parallel universe.
All very good but it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Swans belted the tripe out if us halfway through the '96 season and we turned the tables on GF Day.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Mmm, intriguing question.
Unfortunately the squiggle is calibrated to modern football, so when you go back to when scores were sometimes single digits, the squiggle gets really excited about their defensive effort.
So the defensive record is held by Fitzroy after Round 16, 1899, following a game in which the Lions defeated Melbourne 40-2. The squiggle thinks keeping a side to 2 points is just ****ing awesome. If it happened today, it would be. But not so much in 1899.
And, since average scores have risen, the offensive record is fairly recent: Geelong after the 1989 Grand Final.
The combined record tends to be dominated by big defensive scores, because the way the squiggle algorithm works, the offensive squiggle scores are linear (i.e. every point you score makes the same amount of difference to your squiggle) while the defensive scores are geometric (every point an opposition scores hurts your defensive squiggle less than the point before). It's a lot easier for a team to shoot out to the right when they keep an opposition to a tiny score than it is to rocket off the top.
So Fitzroy 1899 is the all-time combined record-holder, too.
If you only look at the AFL era, which conveniently excludes Geelong 1989, Collingwood 2011 holds the combined and defensive record after their 159-21 win over Port Adelaide in SA in Round 20.
The offensive record is Geelong 1992 following a 149-85 win over Footscray in a preliminary final.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Swans, Demons & Hawks have moved a fair bit right so far. It's good for the Demon's for many reasons, especially the fact that they're still in a lot of games and they're not getting smashed. Except for the game against the Eagles, their next worst loss is 30-odd twice. Swans lost to North by 40+, GWS has been slapped a few times, Freo were demolished not too long ago, and the Crows twice molested in weeks.
The Saints squiggle is interesting. Down - down - down - down - dowwwnnnn!
Looks like the Pies & Swans are equally proficient on the offensive side of the game but the Swans more defensive. Hawks are way out in front though a that massive drubbing of the Saints greatly helped their cause.
What year was it that the Cats smashed Richmond by almost 200 and Melbourne by a similar margin? 2011?
The Saints squiggle is interesting. Down - down - down - down - dowwwnnnn!
Looks like the Pies & Swans are equally proficient on the offensive side of the game but the Swans more defensive. Hawks are way out in front though a that massive drubbing of the Saints greatly helped their cause.
What year was it that the Cats smashed Richmond by almost 200 and Melbourne by a similar margin? 2011?
- Jun 13, 2007
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I love the squiggly lines, but still have no idea how they all work.
I would have thought after last weeks win against Freo, Port would have moved closer to the premiership area of the graph, but seem to have moved away from it.
Its confusing... but awesome at the same time
I would have thought after last weeks win against Freo, Port would have moved closer to the premiership area of the graph, but seem to have moved away from it.
Its confusing... but awesome at the same time
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- #768
I love the squiggly lines, but still have no idea how they all work.
I would have thought after last weeks win against Freo, Port would have moved closer to the premiership area of the graph, but seem to have moved away from it.
Its confusing... but awesome at the same time
If you look at the interactive version, you'll notice that Port actually moved up a tiny amount after the Freo game. The significant move to the left was caused by our underwhelming win against GWS.
Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
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Yep - The team only moves when what actually happens is greater than what has been predicted.
For example, the squiggle has predicted that the Adelaide-Collingwood game tomorrow night will be close - 83-81 in Collingwood's favor. If the Pies smash the Crows by 110-60, for example, their squiggle will move diagonally towards the right because not only was their attack better than what was predicted, their defense was better than predicted too.
The squiggle rewards consistent performances at a premiership level - which is why our pedestrian win against GWS (which lets face it, was much closer than what it should have been) cost us.
Expect the Port Adelaide squiggle to move up and to the right when we get to the 'softer' teams - St. Kilda, Melbourne x2, Carlton at home, Essendon at home, Western Bulldogs at home...(I say 'softer' as in lower on the graph).
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- Apr 4, 2013
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The squiggle tipped Port to win by around the margin they ended up winning by.I love the squiggly lines, but still have no idea how they all work.
I would have thought after last weeks win against Freo, Port would have moved closer to the premiership area of the graph, but seem to have moved away from it.
Its confusing... but awesome at the same time
- Apr 4, 2013
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Final Siren is it possible you post your system's tips here Roby style?
They're far more accurate and worth a look for people who aren't across your system yet.
They're far more accurate and worth a look for people who aren't across your system yet.
You should have seen some of the tips from last season, they were bang on the dial. Tipping correctly and within half-dozen points either team.
Hawks are trending deep into flag territory
Even this year there have been some really close ones too. I think Carlton-Collingwood two weeks back was predicted 74-104 and it turned out to be 70-104.
Love this thread
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