Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Procrastinator35]

Ill say it again.

Squiggle is love. Squiggle is life.

Yes indeed....The same squiggle that predicted a Swans GF win last year....Oops....Turns out, love really is blind.

 

[Gralin]

Yes indeed....The same squiggle that predicted a Swans GF win last year....Oops....Turns out, love really is blind.

But its so pretty

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Yes indeed....The same squiggle that predicted a Swans GF win last year....Oops....Turns out, love really is blind.

Squiggle is spot on this year.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Squiggle is spot on this year.

Maybe in one sense!

 

[ScrewInStuds]

Swans with no Parker, Jack, Franklin and Smith. Squiggle predicting a GF appearance. I'm predicting a semi final exit or prelim mauling.

Q: What does the image below represent?
A: Luke Hodge driving home the week before his first final.

 

[The Swert]

The Hawthorn squiggle almost looks like somebody tried to draw the Eagles logo with a blindfold on.

The Eagles squiggle almost looks like a face.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

If you turn your attention to the bottom left of the Hawthorn squiggle, you can clearly see the outline of a swan. What this means for the integrity of the AFL, I'm not too sure, but I think we can all agree an investigation is in order.

 

[The Dice Man]

The Eagles squiggle almost looks like a face.

A john Lennon Lithograph. Well spotted

 

[cats2rise]

This is amazing. It mixes two of my favourite things.... football, and football statistics.

 

[Final Siren]

Finals Week 1 QF: Fremantle vs Sydney​

There are two ways to view Fremantle's season. One is that the Dockers are doing it perfectly, never over-exerting themselves but just doing enough to lock away wins while building to a peak in September.

The other is that Ross Lyon has sacrificed a virgin goat maiden to the demon-gods of randomness, allowing a fundamentally average team to fall over the line way more often than they should, and they're about to get embarrassed.

The demon-gods theory got a boost this week as Fremantle's opponent -- not rated high to begin with -- lost a bunch of good players to potentially supernatural ailments. Also, the game is in Perth, and as everyone knows, travel isn't a factor when West Australian teams have to play finals in the East, but it is when it's the other way around.

Fremantle is a flag favourite, but the squiggle doesn't give either of these teams a shot. There are years when a team in Fremantle and Sydney's position heading into the finals turned it on and won -- Sydney 2005 in particular -- but those years didn't have two opponents in positions such as Hawthorn and West Coast are today.

To win, the Dockers and Swans essentially need to do a Hawthorn 2008, i.e. replicate the only time in the last 20 years that a team has come from well outside the ideal zone at the start of finals to defeat a team well within it.

Fortunately for them, they get to play each other this week, so one is straight through to a prelim.

This all comes down to the fundamental nature of the squiggle: it only looks at scorelines. And when you look at this year's scores, you see the minor premier recording narrow wins over opposition that Hawthorn and West Coast routinely destroy.

Fremantle started 2015 very well, not only being unbeatable but looking like it as well, with a 9-0 win/loss record and a percentage of 151.6%. Since then, they've retained top spot on the ladder, but drifted to 17-5 at 118.7%. And it's that percentage loss in particular the squiggle doesn't like.

Sydney have been more methodical, and headed in the right direction over the last month, with an average winning margin from their last 4 games of 65 points, albeit against lowly opposition.

The home side wins regular finals 4 times out of 5, but both the regular squiggle and flagpole are tipping the Swans. (Neither knows about Fremantle resting players last week, or Franklin's withdrawl.)

SQUIGGLE:

Fremantle 70 - 73 Sydney

HOMER: Fremantle
Flagpole: Sydney​

 

[Final Siren]

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide

For finals I zoom the squiggle in a little, to avoid a bunch of wasted white space on the chart, but the Bulldogs have come from so far away, I had to zoom this one back out.

There's not much to add that everyone doesn't already know, although you can see the contrast between Adelaide's recent surge (with last week's hiccup) to the Bulldogs' less exciting last three weeks.

And sorry to keep giving you indecisive tips, but...

SQUIGGLE:

Western Bulldogs 100 - 92 Adelaide

HOMER: Western Bulldogs
FLAGPOLE: Adelaide​

 

[Final Siren]

Richmond vs North Melbourne

North have had remarkably little movement this year; they normally go all over the place. There was really only one game that took them out of a very narrow area: their 38-110 victory over Brisbane, which the squiggle liked because it was a good defensive performance away interstate.

By contrast, the Tigers have moved a lot, becoming a defence-centric team of Fremantle/Sydney proportions. They have a fairly consistent positive trend, too.

Last week, North rested a bunch of players against Tigers (did you hear?), so both teams' positions are probably a little out of whack: in reality North should chart a little better and Richmond a little worse.

How North come out of the blocks, and how both teams hold up in the final quarter, should be interesting in terms of evaluating the effectiveness of the resting strategy.

And finally, a game the algorithms can agree on:

SQUIGGLE:

Richmond 89 - 74 North Melbourne

HOMER: Richmond
FLAGPOLE: Richmond​

 

[Bruton77]

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide

For finals I zoom the squiggle in a little, to avoid a bunch of wasted white space on the chart, but the Bulldogs have come from so far away, I had to zoom this one back out.

Where would the 2015 Bulldogs rank in distance travelled over the course of a single season?

 

[nameless]

Where would the 2015 Bulldogs rank in distance travelled over the course of a single season?

Only jump of recent memory that I think could be higher would be West Coast going from wooden spoon to top 4.

Not sure if that was reflected in Squiggle as much as the dogs though, as they have beaten a lot of good teams.

 

[Bruton77]

Only jump of recent memory that I think could be higher would be West Coast going from wooden spoon to top 4.

Not sure if that was reflected in Squiggle as much as the dogs though, as they have beaten a lot of good teams.

WCE 2011? They might have.

The Cats of 1989 certainly moved more over the course of a season.

 

[nameless]

WCE 2011? They might have.

The Cats of 1989 certainly moved more over the course of a season.

Yes, it looks like West Coast 2011 had a similar jump to Dogs this year.

Geelong 1989 went absolutely crazy after some big defensive games, that was pegged back, but their jump would still be more profound for sure.

 

[SJ]

Finals Preview: West Coast vs Hawthorn

Look at those squiggles! Those are powerful, manly squiggles, made by two teams that spent the year hanging around premiership cups like they were full of free beer.

This game has the squiggle's top two teams. This might not sound like much, given the contempt with which the squiggle views Fremantle, but Hawks and Eagles are in extremely strong positions, the kind that are rarely beaten for the flag by an outsider. The winner of this game could do some serious charting, especially if they deliver a thumping.

And on top of that, this match offers excellent pre-game entertainment:


Tipping

As discussed last year, I am unable to beat the simple rule of always tipping the home team, which would get you 125/160 correct tips at 78.1% if applied to all finals from 1995-2014 excluding the Grand ones.

By comparison, the usual squiggle algorithm ISTATE-91:12 has performed at 72.5% in those games, about the same as it goes in the regular season.

This year I'll add flagpole tips as well! Flagpole doesn't have a good finals record: only 65.0% for finals of the non-Grand variety (80% in GFs). But let's track it anyway.

SQUIGGLE:

West Coast 93 - 84 Hawthorn

HOMER: West Coast
FLAGPOLE: Hawthorn by 12​

When was the last time two teams as high as this played eachother in week 1 of the finals?

 

[Pessimistic]

If the games were neutral grounds, squiggle tells me hawthorn and sydney win

Home ground and the ladder say the opposite

 

[PunkyHawkster]

Would like to see the predicted margin for hawks vs eagles without the home ground advantage (i.e. both teams neutral).. would be pretty bloody close I think

 

[wallyt99]

Swans with no Parker, Jack, Franklin and Smith. Squiggle predicting a GF appearance. I'm predicting a semi final exit or prelim mauling.

We need Roby to make an adjustment.

 

[Leeda]

Symbiotically... or else bored and tickly the 'have nots' are measured by an independance where
live streaming becomes a addition to life that is unmeasurable.

See, I am just treating this with all the disdain it requires.

 

[Dacksaredown]

If the games were neutral grounds, squiggle tells me hawthorn and sydney win

Home ground and the ladder say the opposite

It'll be wins for Hawks and Freo.

Hawks have the tactics to beat WC, if one can believe the back page of the Herald Sun.

Freo will play like demons in their first home final, then turn to shit, IMO.

 

[Roby]

We need Roby to make an adjustment.

Adjustments made, Squiggle appears correct, Swans should still win.

 

[Gralin]

It'll be wins for Hawks and Freo.

Hawks have the tactics to beat WC, if one can believe the back page of the Herald Sun.

Freo will play like demons in their first home final, then turn to shit, IMO.

One should never believe any page of the herald sun

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

IF Hawthorn win (would be a pretty big upset considering Masten & Priddis are out). I wonder how the Squiggle predictor will go. Because as it stands, we are suppose to lose this week.