Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Swans Blog]

I think the Hawks flag pole has retained height as it's still using data from 2015 which includes that 3 week period where we belted 1st place Freo (115 - 43), Sydney away (46 - 157) and Carlton (173 - 35). And also our finals matches against Adelaide (135 - 61) and West Coast (107 - 61).

Plus I think Final Siren has said the flagpole rates a team scoring and winning big more than anything else. Losing and scoring small might be the opposite but it must not be as big a factor.

If you want to know what it takes for the Hawks to be knocked off that perch then it's up to the next few teams to continue scoring and winning big.

Losing by almost 90 points should have been enough to knock it well off top perch for good. I think most fans acknowledge that Hawthorn most likely won't be in the running come the end of the season, and neither will the Crows or Eagles, since the Eagles can't beat a decent team away from home (since forever really).

 

[Lensen]

pls stop

 

[Bokonon]

Losing by almost 90 points should have been enough to knock it well off top perch for good. I think most fans acknowledge that Hawthorn most likely won't be in the running come the end of the season, and neither will the Crows or Eagles, since the Eagles can't beat a decent team away from home (since forever really).

I wouldn't write off the Crows, they have class and I think their supporters would argue it a bit of an early season slump.

I think the pretenders might be Geelong, from our game in round 2 and last week it seems to might they are vulnerable in the midfield if Dangerfield can be controlled. I do respect the club and acknowlwdge I might have to hide for a bit if they prove me wrong

 

[old55]

I think most fans acknowledge ... (since forever really).

You really just don't get what this thread is about.

 

[cryptor]

Losing by almost 90 points should have been enough to knock it well off top perch for good. I think most fans acknowledge that Hawthorn most likely won't be in the running come the end of the season, and neither will the Crows or Eagles, since the Eagles can't beat a decent team away from home (since forever really).

Amazing that the Swans got the 4 points on Friday night despite losing by almost 1 point.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

The way I've always read the squiggle is to see which teams are in the sweet spot - where lots of premiership teams have resided in the past. No club is really there at the moment which suggests it's a wide open field at the moment. A bit depressed to see us trailing away but that's life. On trend, GWS are gunning right into the meaty area of the chart. The Swans heading for 2005 territory which is interesting given the potent attack they have.

The Eagles are very much in the race based on my reading. Start winning a few from home and they will be smack bang in premiership territory.

 

[Rotayjay]

In my opinion, the flag race is looking like this.

Leading contenders:
GWS - Probably the form team at the moment, gifted a mountain of high draft picks who are coming good, solid defence, ruthless attack, even contribution from the team. I don't buy the line of 'can't win the flag because they have no finals experience', because Essendon and Adelaide won flags in 1993 and 97 with little.
Geelong - Have turned it around remarkably since 2015 and dominated most games they've played, though they have dropped a couple of winnable ones.
Sydney - In form, going about their business and winning. Arguably the best midfield; Franklin, Tippett and Heeney up forward. Like Geelong they have dropped a couple of winnable games.

In the mix:
North - Well, they haven't lost a game yet. Most, including myself and the Squiggle are not convinced yet as they seem to have just got over the line in several matches against weak opposition. Yet North seem to really know how to get the job done in finals - last year they became the first side to finish 8th and play in a prelim.

Outside chance:
Hawthorn - Can't write them off just yet, as last season didn't start out well for them yet they made it count at the business end. But the Hawks must hit their straps very soon or they will, for the first time for four years, drop out of serious contention.
Western Bulldogs - You cannot discount the Bulldogs, who have quality players despite injuries, have a stingy defence, and have a strong home-ground advantage. But they've been unconvincing since the loss to Hawthorn.
West Coast - A good team and the Squiggle rates them, but it's very hard to see them as a realistic flag chance until they can beat a top-4 side on the road.

In the eight but not in the race:
Adelaide - excellent attack that can afford off-days from stars like Betts, but suspect midfield and defence. I have to be realistic here - we are sitting in 8th for a reason. Have been outclassed too many times.

 

[rezagun]

I wouldn't write off the Crows, they have class and I think their supporters would argue it a bit of an early season slump.

I think the pretenders might be Geelong, from our game in round 2 and last week it seems to might they are vulnerable in the midfield if Dangerfield can be controlled. I do respect the club and acknowlwdge I might have to hide for a bit if they prove me wrong

I think the game on saturday night in adelaide will tell us alot about both our teams

 

[The Swans Blog]

In the eight but not in the race:
Adelaide - excellent attack that can afford off-days from stars like Betts, but suspect midfield and defence. I have to be realistic here - we are sitting in 8th for a reason. Have been outclassed too many times.

That win against the Swans was probably the best Adelaide performance I can remember, except the grand finals.

 

[Suma Magic]

In my opinion, the flag race is looking like this.

Leading contenders:
GWS - Probably the form team at the moment, gifted a mountain of high draft picks who are coming good, solid defence, ruthless attack, even contribution from the team. I don't buy the line of 'can't win the flag because they have no finals experience', because Essendon and Adelaide won flags in 1993 and 97 with little.
Geelong - Have turned it around remarkably since 2015 and dominated most games they've played, though they have dropped a couple of winnable ones.
Sydney - In form, going about their business and winning. Arguably the best midfield; Franklin, Tippett and Heeney up forward. Like Geelong they have dropped a couple of winnable games.

In the mix:
North - Well, they haven't lost a game yet. Most, including myself and the Squiggle are not convinced yet as they seem to have just got over the line in several matches against weak opposition. Yet North seem to really know how to get the job done in finals - last year they became the first side to finish 8th and play in a prelim.

Outside chance:
Hawthorn - Can't write them off just yet, as last season didn't start out well for them yet they made it count at the business end. But the Hawks must hit their straps very soon or they will, for the first time for four years, drop out of serious contention.
Western Bulldogs - You cannot discount the Bulldogs, who have quality players despite injuries, have a stingy defence, and have a strong home-ground advantage. But they've been unconvincing since the loss to Hawthorn.
West Coast - A good team and the Squiggle rates them, but it's very hard to see them as a realistic flag chance until they can beat a top-4 side on the road.

In the eight but not in the race:
Adelaide - excellent attack that can afford off-days from stars like Betts, but suspect midfield and defence. I have to be realistic here - we are sitting in 8th for a reason. Have been outclassed too many times.

To be fair to West Coast, no one has beaten a top 4 side on the road this year.

Edit: in the 13 times the top 4 clubs have hosted an interstate opponent, margins have been:
10
13
25
31
39
44
69
75
80
81
86
91
120

 

[Final Siren]

Getting done by Geelong, thrashed by GWS and done by the Swans should be well enough to knock them off their perch.

Yeah, but everyone has had bad games, and 10 games ago the Hawks won a Grand Final by 7 goals. That means they're still a good option, if you have to pick a flag favourite.

Sydney have been very good this year, but they finished 2015 poorly, and defensive specialists don't often win flags.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Yeah, but everyone has had bad games, and 10 games ago the Hawks won a Grand Final by 7 goals. That means they're still a good option, if you have to pick a flag favourite.

Sydney have been very good this year, but they finished 2015 poorly, and defensive specialists don't often win flags.

I suppose it also has Adelaide's imperious form at the end of last season and the Eagles finals run.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yeah, but everyone has had bad games, and 10 games ago the Hawks won a Grand Final by 7 goals. That means they're still a good option, if you have to pick a flag favourite.

Sydney have been very good this year, but they finished 2015 poorly, and defensive specialists don't often win flags.

Interesting that Geelong is resurging on the defensive side, according to squiggle

FWIW all those eight teams are a shot, but a lot will depend on how they are travelling when entering September. All have a couple of their bogey teams in the mix

 

[Kimbo]

Sort of hard to see where Fremantle are even going to notch up a win the way they're going. The North game just ended up being their make or break game, and it looks like it totally broke them.

I reckon that's right.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

So we got the dogs after they'd lost a few halfbacks, and the Blues after Kreuzer and Casboult went down. What other injury decimated teams have we come up against?

Yep, Crows faced the Dogs the very next week with the same players out. We lost.

So, as much as people can say that North Melbourne got it easy, you still have to beat the team you're up against.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Tyson Stenglein is the big name we'll be missing.

Crow will too!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

pls stop

No, please let him keep going on about the Crows. Every time he makes a prediction the opposite comes true shortly after!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I wouldn't write off the Crows, they have class and I think their supporters would argue it a bit of an early season slump.

I think the pretenders might be Geelong, from our game in round 2 and last week it seems to might they are vulnerable in the midfield if Dangerfield can be controlled. I do respect the club and acknowlwdge I might have to hide for a bit if they prove me wrong

The Crows are 1-2 midfielders short I think. We've got an awesome attack (as the Squiggle shows), but we lose games either because we get smashed out the middle (Bulldogs game), lack composure (Hawks game) and continue to get scored on too easily, often by sides getting out the back.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

The scary thing about GWS is that it has their 2015 form included in the Squiggle, which was fairly average. Imagine where they'll be once those results fall off the back end.

 

[SilentHunter_]

The scary thing about GWS is that it has their 2015 form included in the Squiggle, which was fairly average. Imagine where they'll be once those results fall off the back end.

That's why personally I find the explosive squiggle a better indication of a team's season.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I think that GWS will get the win against Adelaide, they just look unstoppable at the moment. Looks like Squiggles might be in for 6 or 7 this round.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I think that GWS will get the win against Adelaide, they just look unstoppable at the moment. Looks like Squiggles might be in for 6 or 7 this round.

Cheers for that chunky. Adelaide guaranteed the win now. Lock it in Eddie.

The only question is, now that you've suggested 6-7 tips for the Squiggle, will it get all 9, or only 2-3?

 

[RedStarUncle]

West Coast - A good team and the Squiggle rates them, but it's very hard to see them as a realistic flag chance until they can beat a top-4 side on the road.

For the record... away records against top 4 sides of the last 15 premiers (including finals but excluding grand finals):
Hawthorn 2015: 3-1 (3-1 interstate)
Hawthorn 2014: 0-3 (0-2 interstate)
Hawthorn 2013: 1-1 (1-0 interstate)
Sydney 2012: 1-0 (1-0 interstate)
Geelong 2011: 2-1 (0-1 interstate)
Collingwood 2010: 2-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2009: 0-2 (0-0 interstate)
Hawthorn 2008: 0-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2007: 2-0 (1-0 interstate)
West Coast 2006: 2-1 (2-0 interstate)
Sydney 2005: 1-4 (1-4 interstate)
Port Adelaide 2004: 1-1 (1-1 interstate)
Brisbane 2003: 3-2 (3-2 interstate)
Brisbane 2002: 0-3 (0-3 interstate)
Brisbane 2001: 0-2 (0-2 interstate)

OVERALL AWAY RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 18-23
INTERSTATE RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 13-16
PREMIERS WITH WINNING AWAY RECORD vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 7/15
TEAMS THAT WON A PREMIERSHIP WITHOUT A TOP 4 WIN INTERSTATE (exc. GF): 4/12 (excludes 3 teams that did not play a top 4 side interstate)



Squiggle still rates the Eagles highly because the games it lost, it was likely to lose. And they were games that even a premiership-favourite team might lose.

 

[TheFourPillars]

For the record... away records against top 4 sides of the last 15 premiers (including finals but excluding grand finals):
Hawthorn 2015: 1-1 (1-1 interstate)
Hawthorn 2014: 0-3 (0-2 interstate)
Hawthorn 2013: 1-1 (1-0 interstate)
Sydney 2012: 1-0 (1-0 interstate)
Geelong 2011: 2-1 (0-1 interstate)
Collingwood 2010: 2-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2009: 0-2 (0-0 interstate)
Hawthorn 2008: 0-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2007: 2-0 (1-0 interstate)
West Coast 2006: 2-1 (2-0 interstate)
Sydney 2005: 1-4 (1-4 interstate)
Port Adelaide 2004: 1-1 (1-1 interstate)
Brisbane 2003: 3-2 (3-2 interstate)
Brisbane 2002: 0-3 (0-3 interstate)
Brisbane 2001: 0-2 (0-2 interstate)

OVERALL AWAY RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 16-23
INTERSTATE RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 11-16
PREMIERS WITH WINNING AWAY RECORD vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 6/15
TEAMS THAT WON A PREMIERSHIP WITHOUT A TOP 4 WIN INTERSTATE (exc. GF): 4/12 (excludes 3 teams that did not play a top 4 side interstate)



Squiggle still rates the Eagles highly because the games it lost, it was likely to lose. And they were games that even a premiership-favourite team might lose.

I think u have Hawthorn 2015 wrong try 3 and 1 as in we beat all of our top 4 opponents interstate

 

[Bloody]

Amazing that the Swans got the 4 points on Friday night despite losing by almost 1 point.

Did lol.


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