Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[gothecrows]

Because of the way the squiggle works, those games are low-scoring affairs that basically break the algorithm. It assigns massive scores in that situation, in the same way that if a team wins 40-4, it will have a percentage of 1000%.

There are a lot of those games the further back you go, when footy used to be played in suburban grounds that turned into mud pits in the rain. 1989 has plenty: Geelong def. Melbourne 89-20, North def. Fitzroy 49-14, Essendon def. Bulldogs 28-23, Essendon def. West Coast 160-18.

Some more recent too, such as Round 15, 2009: Adelaide def. Fremantle 130-13 (took Adelaide from approx 54/66 on the squiggle to approx 56/81). Adelaide actually ended 2009 as the highest rated team by the squiggle because of that game and a couple of very high-scoring wins to end the season.

 

[MIKE85]

Hawthorn beat all their interstate opponents on their home ground

How many of them were top 4 sides. How many interstate games did you actually play? What if you played interstate every second week, would you win them all then? I know it's a bit of a silly argument, because logistically, it would never happen due to the over representation of victorian sides, but the interstate sides get nowhere near enough credit for winning flags, when it's a fair amount harder to do it from outside of Victoria. So Brisbane playing half their games interstate, and winning 3 flags in a row, IMO is a superior effort, compared to the Hawks who would've played outside of Victoria much less over the space of 3 seasons.

 

[Seadog]

Hawthorn were 3 and 1 last year that info is wrong. We beat everyone in the top 3 away

Won 3, lost a final to West Coast. Info is correct.

 

[TheFourPillars]

How many of them were top 4 sides. How many interstate games did you actually play? What if you played interstate every second week, would you win them all then? I know it's a bit of a silly argument, because logistically, it would never happen due to the over representation of victorian sides, but the interstate sides get nowhere near enough credit for winning flags, when it's a fair amount harder to do it from outside of Victoria. So Brisbane playing half their games interstate, and winning 3 flags in a row, IMO is a superior effort, compared to the Hawks who would've played outside of Victoria much less over the space of 3 seasons.

Now ure just changing the question but to answer the original question we beat Sydney, WCE and Fremantle last year away. One in a prelim final

 

[TheFourPillars]

Won 3, lost a final to West Coast. Info is correct.

Yep that post has been changed from its original 1 and 1

 

[MIKE85]

Now ure just changing the question but to answer the original question we beat Sydney, WCE and Fremantle last year away. One in a prelim final

I actually never asked how many teams the Hawks beat away. I just responded to a post saying they were surprised that the eventual premier had a bit of an iffy away record against the better sides. I'm not disputing that the Hawks have been awesome, but I still rate a side that has to travel every second week, and can win 3 flags in a row, compared to a side that rarely travels in comparrison, and wins 3 in a row. Still a massive effort to win 3 in a row, no questions there.

 

[free tara brown]

Because of the way the squiggle works, those games are low-scoring affairs that basically break the algorithm. It assigns massive scores in that situation, in the same way that if a team wins 40-4, it will have a percentage of 1000%.

There are a lot of those games the further back you go, when footy used to be played in suburban grounds that turned into mud pits in the rain. 1989 has plenty: Geelong def. Melbourne 89-20, North def. Fitzroy 49-14, Essendon def. Bulldogs 28-23, Essendon def. West Coast 160-18.

I guess I'm mentally discounting strong horizontal movements outside the premiership zone as meaningful, having seen Freo achieve a few of those and known they ultimately mean nothing. What I'd like to know is what were big well-balanced movements that were either inside or went towards the premiership zone. Eg GWS seem to be heading straight for it:



In 2015 Hawthorn stamped their favouritism with two enormous wins over Freo and Sydney in consecutive weeks, fully consolidating them in the premiership zone:

And 2011 Geelong is probably the best example - a kind of muddled back and forth year along the horizontal axis until they annihilate Melbourne and then finish the home and away season by destroying Collingwood.

I guess my supposition is that if we are to divine the future from the squiggle, it's those teams that move in positive ways while inside the premiership zone or towards it that have the greatest chance at future success, if not in that current year, then possible future years as well.

So what the squiggle is telling us about GWS is to be very afraid. They look like Brisbane in 1999.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Hawthorn beat all their interstate opponents on their home ground

Yes... thankyou for continuing to point out the error in the original table even after it has been corrected.

The point for me is that 33% of premiers that had to travel interstate to play a fellow top 4 side failed to win any of those games. Yet they were still premiers.

Obviously this doesn't relate to the Eagles directly having lost to Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn which all may or may not end up in the top 4...... BUT it does show that simply writing a team off because they can't win away games against the best sides is kind of wrong. Premiership-winning sides will still lose more than they win on the road against the other sides around about the same level.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Yes... thankyou for continuing to point out the error in the original table even after it has been corrected.

The point for me is that 33% of premiers that had to travel interstate to play a fellow top 4 side failed to win any of those games. Yet they were still premiers.

Obviously this doesn't relate to the Eagles directly having lost to Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn which all may or may not end up in the top 4...... BUT it does show that simply writing a team off because they can't win away games against the best sides is kind of wrong. Premiership-winning sides will still lose more than they win on the road against the other sides around about the same level.

Yeah mate sorry didn't see the correction and I don't disagree with anything you have said

 

[Iron]

That win against the Swans was probably the best Adelaide performance I can remember, except the grand finals.

Let's not go that far.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Let's not go that far.

Name 1 better from the last 18 years.

 

[Iron]

Name 1 better from the last 18 years.

We beat you over at the SCG in 2012. That's one. Your team was better then I think.

 

[The Swans Blog]

We beat you over at the SCG in 2012. That's one. Your team was better then I think.

At the start of the season yeah? I don't know, I think this win was better, considering the relative strength of the teams. I'm not talking Adelaide vs Sydney, I'm talking Adelaide vs whoever wins.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Which team has had the best interstate performance this year?

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

Which team has had the best interstate performance this year?

Bulldogs?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Bulldogs?

V?

 

[LittleG]

V?

GWS is the only interstate game they have played.
Think North V Crows was better.

 

[Gavin Excell]

GWS is the only interstate game they have played.

But they lost?

 

[LittleG]

But they lost?

Just answering your question as to who Bulldogs have played interstate.
Swans v Hawks and north v crows were both better wins.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Just answering your question as to who Bulldogs have played interstate.
Swans v Hawks and north v crows were both better wins.

North played Crows at Etihad

 

[MWPP]

Hawthorn beat all their interstate opponents on their home ground

GWS, Port ....

 

[MWPP]

Just answering your question as to who Bulldogs have played interstate.
Swans v Hawks and north v crows were both better wins.

Geelong v Crows was a better win
North played the crows from the comforts of Etihad (and it was a narrow win)

 

[Big_Birdy]

Which team has had the best interstate performance this year?

Either Geelong v Crows or Sydney v Hawks.

Then Cats v Power

Then Eagles v Power funnily enough

All other interstate victories have been against horrors Freo, Lions and Suns.

 

[MWPP]

Either Geelong v Crows or Sydney v Hawks.

Then Cats v Power

Then Eagles v Power funnily enough

All other interstate victories have been against horrors Freo, Lions and Suns.

Adelaide v Richmond probably rates a mention ahead of wins over Freo/Lions/Suns (but still not a great achievement )

 

[Big_Birdy]

Adelaide v Richmond probably rates a mention ahead of wins over Freo/Lions/Suns (but still not a great achievement )

Tiges lost to Port in Melbourne too now that I think of it.