- Sep 8, 2011
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Correct. Brisbane beat 3 teams at their opponents home.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
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Final Siren how does the Squiggle account for Melbourne v Port regarding venue? Is it treated as neutral a la two MCG teams at the G, or as a Dees home interstate game?
Swans maybe? Won 3 lost 2.
I'm fairly sure that Melbourne is based in the city of Melbourne, and Port Adelaide is not.
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This is the only year Explosive Squiggle has been ahead of regular squiggle at Round 9 for a long time:
Correct Tips @ Round 9
I realized too late I should have done this as a tip accuracy % rather than raw numbers, sorry, since the number of games changed in 2011 & 2012.
But you can see that regular squiggle is historically more reliable.
This explains a lot for me about what's been going on this year. I knew it had been unusual, but not been exactly able to pinpoint it with regards to the tips. If it continues, 2016 will be a year of complete upheaval and reorganisation of club strength. The 9 round sample data is indicating a serious changing of the guard across the board, at levels we've not seen previously. It's usual for 1 or 2 teams to spike, but not this many. For every spike in one direction, it's equalled in the opposite direction (excluding the inflation issue).
It would be really interesting to compare the Rd 9 avg length of the 2016 explosions to historic years. I'd bet it's 40-50% larger than the historic mean. Here's hoping.
- May 25, 2014
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Oh dear. Nothing like being a smartass and getting it wrong....
Have a look at where the game is being played, champ.
The squiggle treats home games played interstate as home games.
Does it? Seems a little odd.
- Dec 11, 2008
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Very odd. But maybe it doesnt see there's a difference between "home" games for Hawthorn/North in Tas (with a definite advantage) and those in Alice and Darwin?
Hearts to hearts
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I'd have thought the advantage of playing at your regular if infrequent "other" home ground would be the same for all clubs who do it - curious why you'd see a difference between Tasmania and the others?
And just when you think the squiggle can't get more awesome, a new slant on it is unveiled - love your work, Final Siren.
Iron
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Me too. My picking Sydney is just an example of how little I need to dig to find a match that was better.
LeverPuller
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The difference is in how often it's played. North and Hawthorn play 4 matches wt one venue each year. Melbourne play one match at Alice and one at Darwin. Moreover, the only team we've played in the Alice is Port; both sides have equal experience at the venue.
The game at Alice Springs is unique in that it is a regular game between the 2 sides.
I would think there is no home advantage at all in this situation.
Rightly or wrongly (it's difficult to be sure with such a small sample space), the squiggle treats these matches as home games for the home team. This is probably justified in some cases, like Hawthorn in Launceston.
Final Siren made a post about this previously. It turns out that whose home game it is is a better predictor than where the game is actually played. Weird, but true. There was something about Geelong and their home games that were played at the G as well that either proved or disagreed with the theory, but I can't remember which and I can't find the post on my phone.
LeverPuller
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- Jun 23, 2011
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Intriguing. I guess my argument is more rated towards the Alice where it's always Melbourne and Port, as opposed to Darwin where it's been 3 different teams (and a fourth this year). From a statistical perspective it's also probably a victim of small sample size - this is only the third match played there.
- Aug 18, 2009
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The squiggle uses nominal home game advantage, which means it doesn't care where the game is played, just whose home game it is.
This is counter-intuitive because we traditionally think of home ground advantage as being related to players' familiarity with the actual physical ground. But this seems far, far less true today than it was in the days of suburban footy.
There is a real, measurable advantage when interstate sides play each other, but not much of one, if any, when sides from the same city compete.
When interstate sides play in a "neutral" venue, like Melbourne vs Port in NT... things get tricky. The main problem is this doesn't happen often, so there isn't a whole lot of data on which to form conclusions. But there is some data, especially because Geelong play plenty of home games at the MCG. And the curious thing is that on this data, nominal home ground advantage is a better tipper than geographical home ground advantage. For example, Geelong have a better record at the MCG when they're the home team than when they're not. And Hawthorn at home in Tasmania perform just as well as Hawthorn at home at the MCG, but not as well as Hawthorn away at Subiaco (or Adelaide Oval or Sydney or Brisbane...).
It's interesting to think why this might be -- crowd factor, travel, changeroom/facilities advantages, psychological factors, Geelong rising to big occasions -- but all I really know is that you do slightly better if you look at the fixture to see whose home game it is rather than where the match is actually located.
This is counter-intuitive because we traditionally think of home ground advantage as being related to players' familiarity with the actual physical ground. But this seems far, far less true today than it was in the days of suburban footy.
There is a real, measurable advantage when interstate sides play each other, but not much of one, if any, when sides from the same city compete.
When interstate sides play in a "neutral" venue, like Melbourne vs Port in NT... things get tricky. The main problem is this doesn't happen often, so there isn't a whole lot of data on which to form conclusions. But there is some data, especially because Geelong play plenty of home games at the MCG. And the curious thing is that on this data, nominal home ground advantage is a better tipper than geographical home ground advantage. For example, Geelong have a better record at the MCG when they're the home team than when they're not. And Hawthorn at home in Tasmania perform just as well as Hawthorn at home at the MCG, but not as well as Hawthorn away at Subiaco (or Adelaide Oval or Sydney or Brisbane...).
It's interesting to think why this might be -- crowd factor, travel, changeroom/facilities advantages, psychological factors, Geelong rising to big occasions -- but all I really know is that you do slightly better if you look at the fixture to see whose home game it is rather than where the match is actually located.
- Aug 18, 2009
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I don't see anything that dramatic... I'm guessing you mean the movement on the regular squiggle, since that's what captures change from last year (which explosive squiggle ignores).
2012 seems similar to this year: By Round 9, previously dominant clubs in Geelong and Collingwood had slid back to the pack, while clubs like Richmond, Adelaide and Essendon had greatly improved. There's actually more squiggle movement than today! But the squiggle was still tipping at 76.5%.
The key might be in the error margin. Despite the excellent tipping accuracy, the squiggle's error margin was very high: 32.1pts to R9 in 2012 vs a 20-year average of 26.3pts and 30.0pts so far this year. So in 2012, there were many unexpected results, but more of the "won by a lot more than expected" kind, rather than "won by a little instead of losing by a little."
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Because GWS away wins are fairly rare, and they have NEVER won a game away against a top 8 side. Having said that, they have won as many away games already this year (3) than they won all of last year. Bookies currently have GWS as slight favourites (1.5pts).
- Aug 29, 2006
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It is also because the squiggle can't account for the continued rise of the GWS. GWS seems to have outperformed the Squiggle on almost every occasion this year. They have just a clear trajectory into the premiership zone, however they will likely plateau very soon.
RookiePick
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Once you are on the brink of the hot zone it gets much more difficult to squiggle with gusto. You have to belt a really good side or two to push into the premiership zone.
Look at this weeks squiggle tips
West Coast are expected to kick 20+ goals, hold their opponent to the lowest round score and win by 80 odd. A shellacking in the eyes of most but performing to this level will generate little more than a "meh" from the Squig.
Hawthorn has a similar task at the GABBA.
Port and Melbourne could be interesting. Plenty of squigglin' potential in that bad boy IMO
Look at this weeks squiggle tips
West Coast are expected to kick 20+ goals, hold their opponent to the lowest round score and win by 80 odd. A shellacking in the eyes of most but performing to this level will generate little more than a "meh" from the Squig.
Hawthorn has a similar task at the GABBA.
Port and Melbourne could be interesting. Plenty of squigglin' potential in that bad boy IMO
treefingers
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Do you have the wins/losses for these data? I'd imagine that the causal link would be tenuous at best.
MWPP
Flying High
Yep, agreedOnce you are on the brink of the hot zone it gets much more difficult to squiggle with gusto. You have to belt a really good side or two to push into the premiership zone.
Look at this weeks squiggle tips
West Coast are expected to kick 20+ goals, hold their opponent to the lowest round score and win by 80 odd. A shellacking in the eyes of most but performing to this level will generate little more than a "meh" from the Squig.
Hawthorn has a similar task at the GABBA.
Port and Melbourne could be interesting. Plenty of squigglin' potential in that bad boy IMO
Squiggle is amazing
But we're going to fail in the eyes of the squiggle this week (and undermine our reputation as the premier flat track bullies)
With our outs and the Suns ins , the Suns look like a good value line bet too
It's going to be closer than the bookies (and squiggle think)
But hope we still get the 4 points (and no more injuries
)
LeverPuller
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Hopefully we get the good end of Mr SquigOnce you are on the brink of the hot zone it gets much more difficult to squiggle with gusto. You have to belt a really good side or two to push into the premiership zone.
Look at this weeks squiggle tips
West Coast are expected to kick 20+ goals, hold their opponent to the lowest round score and win by 80 odd. A shellacking in the eyes of most but performing to this level will generate little more than a "meh" from the Squig.
Hawthorn has a similar task at the GABBA.
Port and Melbourne could be interesting. Plenty of squigglin' potential in that bad boy IMO
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