Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Hobbes]

I'm a bit surprised that the Squiggle has Adelaide beating GWS this week.

The Squiggle rates form from last year, which is probably pumping up Adelaide a little. And Adelaide in Adelaide isn't an easy proposition for anybody.

That said, my algorithms, based on more recent form than the Squiggle, pick GWS to win. But it's close. Adelaide are a good team too.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

For the record... away records against top 4 sides of the last 15 premiers (including finals but excluding grand finals):
Hawthorn 2015: 3-1 (3-1 interstate)
Hawthorn 2014: 0-3 (0-2 interstate)
Hawthorn 2013: 1-1 (1-0 interstate)
Sydney 2012: 1-0 (1-0 interstate)
Geelong 2011: 2-1 (0-1 interstate)
Collingwood 2010: 2-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2009: 0-2 (0-0 interstate)
Hawthorn 2008: 0-1 (0-0 interstate)
Geelong 2007: 2-0 (1-0 interstate)
West Coast 2006: 2-1 (2-0 interstate)
Sydney 2005: 1-4 (1-4 interstate)
Port Adelaide 2004: 1-1 (1-1 interstate)
Brisbane 2003: 3-2 (3-2 interstate)
Brisbane 2002: 0-3 (0-3 interstate)
Brisbane 2001: 0-2 (0-2 interstate)

OVERALL AWAY RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 18-23
INTERSTATE RECORD OF PREMIERS vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 13-16
PREMIERS WITH WINNING AWAY RECORD vs TOP 4 TEAMS: 7/15
TEAMS THAT WON A PREMIERSHIP WITHOUT A TOP 4 WIN INTERSTATE (exc. GF): 4/12 (excludes 3 teams that did not play a top 4 side interstate)



Squiggle still rates the Eagles highly because the games it lost, it was likely to lose. And they were games that even a premiership-favourite team might lose.

One of the few non eagles supporters able to wrap their head around the fact that most teams lose to top 4 sides away, even the best sides (brisbane 01-02, geelong 09, hawks 14). Though the manner in which we've lost our games away against top 4 sides has been disappointing, the team still hasn't adjusted to the new arrivals and change in structure since bringing Emac back, and only a handful of guys have consistently played at the level they did in 2015, so far this year which means we still have a lot of room for improvement. 5 week delayed pre season after playing no finals the 2 years prior may have played a role in that, and despite that we're sitting 6-3 with plenty of winnable games coming up. Backing the eagles to have a strong second half to the season.

Will come down to Sydney, Geelong, West coast, GWS and the bulldogs for mine. North may finish top 4, or even top 2 but over the last season and a half I don't think they've shown enough to say they could go all the way, their record this year is very reminiscent of fremantle last year and have a very tough draw coming up. This year I think will be the year that hawks drop off, I think they've got too many things stacked against them this year and just haven't looked anywhere near as threatening as they did the last 3 or 4 years, besides our round 2 game with them, their win loss record is very flattering, and they could just as easily be 3-6 as they are 6-3. Mitchell is slower then ever before and hasn't provided the same output, hodge keeps getting injured, and missing roughead for more than likely the rest of the season will really hurt them.

 

[AlibiMonday]

I don't see anything that dramatic... I'm guessing you mean the movement on the regular squiggle, since that's what captures change from last year (which explosive squiggle ignores).

2012 seems similar to this year: By Round 9, previously dominant clubs in Geelong and Collingwood had slid back to the pack, while clubs like Richmond, Adelaide and Essendon had greatly improved. There's actually more squiggle movement than today! But the squiggle was still tipping at 76.5%.

The key might be in the error margin. Despite the excellent tipping accuracy, the squiggle's error margin was very high: 32.1pts to R9 in 2012 vs a 20-year average of 26.3pts and 30.0pts so far this year. So in 2012, there were many unexpected results, but more of the "won by a lot more than expected" kind, rather than "won by a little instead of losing by a little."

Yes, you're right. I mean the average length from this year's starting position, not adjusted from the 50/50 point.

It seems the difference this year, is that the improving (worsening) teams are taking 3 steps forward (backwards), instead of the 2 forward / 1 back we've previously seen.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Yep, agreed
Squiggle is amazing
But we're going to fail in the eyes of the squiggle this week (and undermine our reputation as the premier flat track bullies)
With our outs and the Suns ins , the Suns look like a good value line bet too
It's going to be closer than the bookies (and squiggle think)
But hope we still get the 4 points (and no more injuries )

We have the smallest injury list of all teams

 

[MWPP]

We have the smallest injury list of all teams

St Kilda's is smaller
But yes , touch wood, we're finally getting some respite after a few tough years (in terms of injuries ) in a row. Hope it lasts
I'm just concerned because we have lost both Gaff/Yeo this week (i.e. Concerned about the quality rather than the quantity )

 

[frenchconnection]

I guess I'm mentally discounting strong horizontal movements outside the premiership zone as meaningful, having seen Freo achieve a few of those and known they ultimately mean nothing. What I'd like to know is what were big well-balanced movements that were either inside or went towards the premiership zone. Eg GWS seem to be heading straight for it:

View attachment 250424

In 2015 Hawthorn stamped their favouritism with two enormous wins over Freo and Sydney in consecutive weeks, fully consolidating them in the premiership zone:View attachment 250427

And 2011 Geelong is probably the best example - a kind of muddled back and forth year along the horizontal axis until they annihilate Melbourne and then finish the home and away season by destroying Collingwood. View attachment 250428

I guess my supposition is that if we are to divine the future from the squiggle, it's those teams that move in positive ways while inside the premiership zone or towards it that have the greatest chance at future success, if not in that current year, then possible future years as well.

So what the squiggle is telling us about GWS is to be very afraid. They look like Brisbane in 1999.View attachment 250431

GWS also remind me of the Eagles in 1991 who won their first 13 games on the trot, got into the GF and were in it until just before 3/4 time then the Hawks blew them away in the last quarter. So on that basis maybe GWS will make the GF, but can they win it. What is the average age of their list say compared to Sydney, Geelong, Hawks and Eagles. Have noticed that the Premiers over the last few years had quite a few mature aged players. Younger players can get over-awed on the day, like the Eagles did last year. Not sure if the squiggle was being used back in 1991

 

[Hobbes]

GWS also remind me of the Eagles in 1991 who won their first 13 games on the trot, got into the GF and were in it until just before 3/4 time then the Hawks blew them away in the last quarter. So on that basis maybe GWS will make the GF, but can they win it. What is the average age of their list say compared to Sydney, Geelong, Hawks and Eagles. Have noticed that the Premiers over the last few years had quite a few mature aged players. Younger players can get over-awed on the day, like the Eagles did last year. Not sure if the squiggle was being used back in 1991

I'm quite sure that the squiggle has been tested for accuracy over 1991 (and, I think, every VFL/AFL season ever) but I doubt it was being used at the time.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/1991.html

 

[frenchconnection]

I'm quite sure that the squiggle has been tested for accuracy over 1991 (and, I think, every VFL/AFL season ever) but I doubt it was being used at the time.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/1991.html

Thanks - interesting that the Eagles were so far to the right but then Malthouse did like to hone in on the defence side of the game. Always used to say to the players - don't care if you kick only 12 goals as long as you keep the opposition down to no more than 11 goals.

 

[Hobbes]

Thanks - interesting that the Eagles were so far to the right but then Malthouse did like to hone in on the defence side of the game. Always used to say to the players - don't care if you kick only 12 goals as long as you keep the opposition down to no more than 11 goals.

Some teams, such as Adelaide 2005, have gone much further to the right than any recent premier.

(If you go back and look at very early seasons, lots of the teams are further to the right than any recent premier, sometimes ridiculously so)

 

[Dagless]

The lack of movement based on last nights result really highlights how expected that type of victory was for the Swans from a scoring POV. I know it could have technically been closer but with home ground advantage, I think it was just overall.

Still maintain most underrate the difficulty of winning away from home against good teams, no matter the quality of your squad.

 

[DrEvil_]

I'm quite sure that the squiggle has been tested for accuracy over 1991 (and, I think, every VFL/AFL season ever) but I doubt it was being used at the time.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/1991.html

WB between R10 and R11 is the biggest jump in a single game I've ever seen!

 

[Gydafud]

WB between R10 and R11 is the biggest jump in a single game I've ever seen!

Round 18 onwards in 2011 has some great squiggle movement.

 

[The Speaker]

WB between R10 and R11 is the biggest jump in a single game I've ever seen!

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/1897.html

 

[The Swans Blog]

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/1897.html

haha. 59 v 2.

 

[philohk]

WB between R10 and R11 is the biggest jump in a single game I've ever seen!

I think I remember that game. Horrible conditions at the Western Oval, Dogs right at home. Mark Arceri got a free kick about 40m out for Carlton with less than a minute left and got their first goal.

Yes, I may be autistic.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I think that GWS will get the win against Adelaide, they just look unstoppable at the moment. Looks like Squiggles might be in for 6 or 7 this round.

Cheers for that chunky. Adelaide guaranteed the win now. Lock it in Eddie.

The only question is, now that you've suggested 6-7 tips for the Squiggle, will it get all 9, or only 2-3?

Thanks again chunky.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I think I remember that game. Horrible conditions at the Western Oval, Dogs right at home. Mark Arceri got a free kick about 40m out for Carlton with less than a minute left and got their first goal.

Yes, I may be autistic.

I remember the free being rubbish decision too.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I'm a bit surprised that the Squiggle has Adelaide beating GWS this week.

The squiggle knows all.

 

[chazwazza]

The squiggle knows all.

I'm a bit surprised that I was a bit surprised

 

[Little Big John]

Adelaide seemingly harnessing triangle power. Expecting a rainbow to shoot out towards the premiership zone, Dark Side of the Moon-style, in the coming weeks.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Ridiculous result - AFL Squiggle prediction WCE 132 v GCS 54
Actual score - WCE 132 v GCS 55

 

[Max zero]

Ridiculous result - AFL Squiggle prediction WCE 132 v GCS 54
Actual score - WCE 132 v GCS 55

Everyone was predicting a crazy score I suspected that WC was not going to go 100%. Once I saw Gaff and Yeo sitting out (they could of both played) I knew we were in cruise mode.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Ridiculous result - AFL Squiggle prediction WCE 132 v GCS 54
Actual score - WCE 132 v GCS 55

Predicted score of Adelaide 112 vs GWS 96
Actual result of Adelaide 107 vs GWS 85

That's pretty good too.

 

[SilentHunter_]

ALL HAIL THE SQUIGGLE!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

It also shows you how close things are on the ladder when the end of season ladder has 1 game between 2nd and 8th, 4th thru 8th separated by percentage and top spot only 2 games clear of 8th (with 8th 3 games clear of 9th).