Millky95
Starchild > You
Moments and shitfights like these make me hate it when my team is in the finals... thread needs more squiggles
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Indeed. And we should have won it in a canter. But we fluffed it.
chunkychicken guaranteeing that Sydney will not win the 2016 flag with another of his "accurate" predictions.
Fans of non-Sydney teams rejoice!
Finally proven right about Adelaide on squiggles though
- Oct 26, 2012
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Not yet. If the Crows don't make a PF you can go on about it, but at this point the season is still alive.
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- May 4, 2013
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Hawthorn was higher on the flagpole though
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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Where do you think it went wrong in 2014 out of interest? Do you think it was the soft run leading into and throughout finals that didn't prepare the team well for a high intensity and physical game?
Will need to beat Geelong or Hawks, which I very strongly doubt will happen. Adelaide blew their home final chances and probably gf.
Soft run in for sure. Hawks had to fight in each game whereas the Swans had it pretty easy leading into the finals and comfortable wins against Fremantle and North. It was a concern on our board that North didn't even challenge us.
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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Are you concerned then that should GWS not put up a big fight that you'll go into a PF late September having played only one tough game (North in Tassie) since July and having only played 1 game at all since August? Far from even adequate preparation should you meet Hawthorn or Geelong in that PF.
Not really. St Kilda challenged and while Richmond were awful, Sydney utterly dominated them. It's a tough game this weekend so I don't think that we'll see the Swans getting anther soft run these finals
- Oct 26, 2012
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Not to make the Prelim they won't, but will to make the GF.
Getting way ahead, but I don't mind the Crows chances against the Hawks in a Prelim. The Cats are a different matter.
- Oct 26, 2012
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I guarantee the Swans won't win this weekend.
- Oct 26, 2012
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That was just another example of where the Squiggle was wrong.
Far out I hate this week off business I'm getting so mixed up with it. Not this weekend of course, next weekend
- Oct 26, 2012
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Far out I hate this week off business I'm getting so mixed up with it. Not this weekend of course, next weekend
At least there's something we can agree on (shocking, I know!). The bye week before finals sucks!
- Aug 18, 2009
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Good question. Firstly, Brisbane clearly have the 2nd-weakest defence of all teams since 1995, which is as far back as I can be bothered looking, pipped only by GWS 2013. The Giants went 1-21 at 51.0% that year, letting through 2,990 Points Against, compared to Brisbane this year 3-19 at 61.6%, letting through 2,872 Points Against.
But GWS 2013 won the spoon. My mind immediately went to Melbourne 2013, who are far and away the most horrendously bad team not to win the spoon of the modern era. And sure enough, while Brisbane has a better attack, Melbourne 2013 were all-around worse. And it's not even close. Melbourne 2013 get far too little credit for badness. They went 2-20 at 54.1%.
Brisbane are also better than wooden spooners GWS 2012, Melbourne 2008, and Fitzroy 1996. But those are the only teams since 1995.
So the Lions are the 2nd-worst team not to win the spoon in the last two decades.
Edit: Wait! I tell a lie. Brisbane are ever-so-slightly better than Port Adelaide 2011, who went 3-19 at 64.5% and finished second-bottom, above Gold Coast in their first year.
The Lions are also a little ahead of wooden spooners Fitzroy 1995, Carlton 2006, Melbourne 2008, and Gold Coast 2011.
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- Aug 15, 2009
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FAO Final Siren
Apologies for my ignorance, I only check in on this thread from time to time so am not completely au fait with the mechanics behind it.
In respect to the squiggle flagpole, it appears after round 23 West Coast have risen above Hawthorn, however your finals projections have Hawthorn defeating West Coast in week 2. Can you perhaps breakdown how this is possible? Does the squiggle flagpole run independent of finals match-ups?
Apologies for my ignorance, I only check in on this thread from time to time so am not completely au fait with the mechanics behind it.
In respect to the squiggle flagpole, it appears after round 23 West Coast have risen above Hawthorn, however your finals projections have Hawthorn defeating West Coast in week 2. Can you perhaps breakdown how this is possible? Does the squiggle flagpole run independent of finals match-ups?
- Aug 18, 2009
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Recipe for success: Pick all the favourites and predict a few upsets without saying which they'll be!
Your challenge for this finals series is to beat HOMER, the algorithm that always picks home teams.
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Sydney by 10 over GWS: 61.5% win likelihood
Geelong by 20 over Hawthorn: 70.2%
Adelaide by 32 over North: 79.4%
West Coast by 27 over Bulldogs: 76.1%
These are a fair bit more emphatic than you usually see in finals week 1.
My challenge for the final series is the same as most years, to not cry or break things.
Surprised that the Swans are only 9 point favourites considering their form, scores, attacking position and defensive position are all (in some ways vastly) superior to GWS.
I'd like to know what the form predictor says rather than ISTATE-92 which you've said before can be a better predictor in finals.
- Oct 26, 2012
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I would have thought this would be a non-issue the last 3 years!
Bloody prelims.
- Oct 26, 2012
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The team I support has lost their last 3 prelims by a grand total of 31 points. I have little sympathy for you!
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