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VDS66

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I'll just add...

If you bought over 5 years ago to occupy, you're on giving back some of the gains and you're not worse off.

Keep paying and ride it out.

If you're an investor and have leveraged the gains to buy more properties, then your losses are compounded and chances are you could find yourself with negative equity big time. Just like margin lending with shares.

Also forgot to mention that banks are also now conservative with valuations.

One of the main reasons why Auction clearances are low is that buyers are afraid to sign unconditional in case the valuation doesn't stack up.
 

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VDS66

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Depends which part of Australia you're talking I guess. And it's similar to the mining boom, did cleaners deserve to be making six figures for sweeping dongas? **** no. Did they make it anyway? Absolutely.
I think if you operate in an exclusive niche market and you bring discreet buyers then fair enough.

If you're profile attracts a certain clientele, then go for it.

No issue with that at all.
 

StCicatriz

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Mint post!!!!

Over here it's strange we really had it hard when the boom stopped. Was a big shock to the system. But once it bottomed out things got ok again. It seems normal now.

Having said that it feels like we could go backwards again at any point.

What is interesting is there are still land releases happening here. I know of a case that happened last week where a developer spent millions on some acreage at an already over inflated suburb where the land isn't even zoned for housing yet. Which implies they think they will get approval for it and there will be demand.

I think more people here are looking at existing rather than building new in a new estate on a small block.

There's certainly been pain for people who bought up the new land releases during the boom here.
we just purchased our first home, i was shit scared of the evaluation, not so much the approval process. pre-approval went in easily. only thing that did happen is they said the deal was off the table if we let the pre-approval lapse. that product has since gone.

i think what helped us is the place we purchased had only been sold recently < 24 months and the price we were paying was much much much less than what they purchased it for. the medians in the suburb were also hard to obtain as they were so different in terms of the type of property (land size + house size).

i read an article yesterday about someone who sold their place, went to buy another place, applying for literally the exact same mortgage and got knocked back
 
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There you go...

https://amp.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/tighter-mortgage-credit-is-here-to-stay-20190228-p510ug.html

The biggest risk now is a recession and people start losing their jobs.
That's my worry , and i think the jobs market is less diverse than it was in the past. The building industry has really been riding a massive wave for a long time now, while other industries have fallen by the wayside.
That means if there's a slump in the building industry, there is less other industry to smooth the shock to the service industry and retailers.

An example would probably be what happens to a place like Pt Hedland if there is a marked downturn in mining, then think on a much bigger scale.
 

StCicatriz

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That's my worry , and i think the jobs market is less diverse than it was in the past. The building industry has really been riding a massive wave for a long time now, while other industries have fallen by the wayside.
That means if there's a slump in the building industry, there is less other industry to smooth the shock to the service industry and retailers.

An example would probably be what happens to a place like Pt Hedland if there is a marked downturn in mining, then think on a much bigger scale.
the problem is we never solved the manufacturing problem and basically gave up on it as an industry, but the problems that faced it will face many other industries

instead we've coupled ourselves to construction and mining... and the mining jobs are often really construction jobs. as long as we are building we are ok. but when that expansion stops, what then? especially with automation kicking in.

both major parties are pretty meh. quality of candidate is getting worse.
 

gringo2011

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VDS66

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That's my worry , and i think the jobs market is less diverse than it was in the past. The building industry has really been riding a massive wave for a long time now, while other industries have fallen by the wayside.
That means if there's a slump in the building industry, there is less other industry to smooth the shock to the service industry and retailers.

An example would probably be what happens to a place like Pt Hedland if there is a marked downturn in mining, then think on a much bigger scale.
Old manufacturing is done IMO.

Capital will always shift to developing countries with cheap Labour

Eventually the Chinese middle class will burgeon and Labour costs will increase.

Then it will shift to India or some other underdeveloped country.

So we need some vision for the future. We need to get smarter and face reality rather than the empty rhetoric about saving Jobs.

The sooner we rip the bandaid off the better we will be.
 

VDS66

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Here's a bit of an overstated article that possibly fails to see the way the US system has encroached on Europe but explains why a democratic socialist system works better than unfettered capitalism for VDS.

https://eand.co/how-capitalism-made...nrXbUNqwG6mlmCeyaXGf12YjuXeL6NK8-DoCxnVQFhsO8
That's a pretty compelling read and follows on from Chomsky where he outlines that the rules of so called free markets are set by government, who do so to appease their masters... The donors and lobby groups.

The more powerful the lobby group, the bigger influence on policy outcomes in their favour.

Then you have the perceived scarcity falsely created to keep prices high. No different to opec controlling oil supplies for their own benefit.

I have argued all along that essential services should always remain in public hands.

Unfortunately too many Australians just like Americans have the whole myth of the great American dream ingrained in them from birth.

It's a hoax and a tease IMO.

That article is an inconvenient truth for many.

But there has to be a balance, which I might add, we used to have in this country.

The reality is that governments always have to build the infrastructure that allows the capitalists to flourish.

And there's nothing wrong with that at all.

But as I said, if that infrastructure is an essential device then it must remain in public hands.

Privatisation by both parties has destroyed this country IMO.

And frankly as a society we are not ready to accept it or rip the band aid off.

Thanks for the share.
 
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Yawkey way

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Here's a bit of an overstated article that possibly fails to see the way the US system has encroached on Europe but explains why a democratic socialist system works better than unfettered capitalism for VDS.

https://eand.co/how-capitalism-made...nrXbUNqwG6mlmCeyaXGf12YjuXeL6NK8-DoCxnVQFhsO8
Gee gringo England yesterday the US today, I must say I don’t think much of either article.

Really any truth in either article is hidden behind so much hatred and bile they’re barely readable imo.
 

VDS66

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Gee gringo England yesterday the US today, I must say I don’t think much of either article.

Really any truth in either article is hidden behind so much hatred and bile they’re barely readable imo.
Overstated but not far off the mark.

The fact that there are still so many Americans living in cars and poverty is proof enough.

And in fairness, the poverty and lack of opportunity I have seen in southern Italy is nowhere near the utopia the author claims.

The problem is that proponents of small government will tell you that the private sector provides efficiency and therefore lower prices... Which we know is bullshit.

Proponents of big government have no idea because socialism in its pure form is the polar opposite of free markets and creates an unsustainable beaurocracy like Greece.

So there simply has to be a balance IMO.

Inequality is the biggest malaise of this century. I'm not saying everyone has to become a millionaire, but everyone deserves a minimum living standard IMO and then it's up to them.if they aspire to more.
 
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Overstated but not far off the mark.

The fact that there are still so many Americans living in cars and poverty is proof enough.

And in fairness, the poverty and lack of opportunity I have seen in southern Italy is nowhere near the utopia the author claims.

The problem is that proponents of small government will tell you that the private sector provides efficiency and therefore lower prices... Which we know is bullshit.

Proponents of big government have no idea because socialism in its pure form is the polar opposite of free markets and creates an unsustainable beaurocracy like Greece.

So there simply has to be a balance IMO.

Inequality is the biggest malaise of this century. I'm not saying everyone has to become a millionaire, but everyone deserves a minimum living standard IMO and then it's up to them.if they aspire to more.
I would have liked to see some more stats to back it up. For me, there's always been a strange naivety to Americans. A bit insular and a real tendency to believe their own BS.
 

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gringo2011

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That's a pretty compelling read and follows on from Chomsky where he outlines that the rules of so called free markets are set by government, who do so to appease their masters... The donors and lobby groups.

The more powerful the lobby group, the bigger influence on policy outcomes in their favour.

Then you have the perceived scarcity falsely created to keep prices high. No different to opec controlling oil supplies for their own benefit.

I have argued all along that essential services should always remain in public hands.

Unfortunately too many Australians just like Americans have the whole myth of the great American dream ingrained in them from birth.

It's a hoax and a tease IMO.

That article is an inconvenient truth for many.

But there has to be a balance, which I might add, we used to have in this country.

The reality is that governments always have to build the infrastructure that allows the capitalists to flourish.

And there's nothing wrong with that at all.

But as I said, if that infrastructure is an essential device then it must remain in public hands.

Privatisation by both parties has destroyed this country IMO.

And frankly as a society we are not ready to accept it or rip the band aid off.

Thanks for the share.

Like these guys?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...j63syoOu_uPzdHFI7oxtpHB31G1OddJhZy9srR4l0CODg
 

gringo2011

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Gee gringo England yesterday the US today, I must say I don’t think much of either article.

Really any truth in either article is hidden behind so much hatred and bile they’re barely readable imo.

I liked the English one, just for laughs, I come from the same people the article criticises and having done some family history, plenty were incompetent idiots with nothing but linage to give them authority. The US seems to be at a real crossroads with so many people starting to get left behind. Having a blunt force article that spreads the Aussie democratic socialist model is't a bad thing. You need to spread equity or it spreads itself.
 

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Overstated but not far off the mark.

The fact that there are still so many Americans living in cars and poverty is proof enough.

And in fairness, the poverty and lack of opportunity I have seen in southern Italy is nowhere near the utopia the author claims.

The problem is that proponents of small government will tell you that the private sector provides efficiency and therefore lower prices... Which we know is bullshit.

Proponents of big government have no idea because socialism in its pure form is the polar opposite of free markets and creates an unsustainable beaurocracy like Greece.

So there simply has to be a balance IMO.

Inequality is the biggest malaise of this century. I'm not saying everyone has to become a millionaire, but everyone deserves a minimum living standard IMO and then it's up to them.if they aspire to more.
There’s truth in it and my views on the provision of community service obligations, universal healthcare etc are well know.

The problem with both articles is that they lack any balance at all and as such will be dismissed as absurd, which makes it too easy to dismiss the truths in them. The fact is that picture isn’t the reality of my relatives in the US and according to my sister and daughter who have recently been in Europe many there are doing it hard as they are here. I see rough sleepers every morning as I drop my kids off near the light rail, it’s bloody depressing to be honest.

That picture is also undeniably true for many people which is appalling. Something is going to give you can just feel it building, now it would be wonderful if we could get some bipartisanship on some of the big issues but sadly both here and abroad the divisions seem to be greater than I can ever remember.
 

gringo2011

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There’s truth in it and my views on the provision of community service obligations, universal healthcare etc are well know.

The problem with both articles is that they lack any balance at all and as such will be dismissed as absurd, which makes it too easy to dismiss the truths in them. The fact is that picture isn’t the reality of my relatives in the US and according to my sister and daughter who have recently been in Europe many there are doing it hard as they are here. I see rough sleepers every morning as I drop my kids off near the light rail, it’s bloody depressing to be honest.

That picture is also undeniably true for many people which is appalling. Something is going to give you can just feel it building, now it would be wonderful if we could get some bipartisanship on some of the big issues but sadly both here and abroad the divisions seem to be greater than I can ever remember.

I think the US is in a pretty bad way to be honest. If you are doing well in the US it's a great place like anywhere but not great if you aren't. Europe is much like Australia with the homeless getting pushed out by inner city rent and a large proportion are mentally ill. It still has decent safety nets for poverty but support services are stretched and under funded. Places like San Fran are struggling to keep sanitary conditions with excrement and urine lining streets. A friend just came back and said he couldn't believe the smell and the poverty. Another mate works from home but regularly goes to the US and he's noticed the falling living standards as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area
 

Yawkey way

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I liked the English one, just for laughs, I come from the same people the article criticises and having done some family history, plenty were incompetent idiots with nothing but linage to give them authority. The US seems to be at a real crossroads with so many people starting to get left behind. Having a blunt force article that spreads the Aussie democratic socialist model is't a bad thing. You need to spread equity or it spreads itself.
Yeah it would have been funny if he had held back a bit and the irony of his privileged position coming from a society with a caste system seemed lost on him.

The English are famous for the bumbling pampered entitled fools the still plague them and do a pretty good job of calling them out and taking the Mickey out of them. At the same time they managed to create a society that created a vast empire which is responsible for god knows how many fabulous inventions. That’s a pretty fair effort for a small island nation, they also provided the younger sons that went out into the the empire and did some great things.
 

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I think the US is in a pretty bad way to be honest. If you are doing well in the US it's a great place like anywhere but not great if you aren't. Europe is much like Australia with the homeless getting pushed out by inner city rent and a large proportion are mentally ill. It still has decent safety nets for poverty but support services are stretched and under funded. Places like San Fran are struggling to keep sanitary conditions with excrement and urine lining streets. A friend just came back and said he couldn't believe the smell and the poverty. Another mate works from home but regularly goes to the US and he's noticed the falling living standards as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area
I hear the same thing lately from just about all my family and friends who visit which is quite disturbing.

They tell me that homelessness is on the rise and the casual level of acceptance is strange, someone recently returned from New York told me that the homeless were polite and the populous didn’t seem to notice them.

We had an internment ceremony last week for an Aussie relative who had spent the last 60 years living and working in the US and Canada, he was very successful in the newspaper industry there the editor of some household names. I will miss catching up and getting his perspective on things including US politics.

This will make you laugh gringo given your dark Carlton link, he was interned in a family grave along with his dad and my great great grandparents on my mothers side. My great great grandfather was at that famous meeting at the grace darling hotel when the Collingwood football club was founded, he was on the committee for years and a Vice President.
 
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gringo2011

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I hear the same thing lately from just about all my family and friends who visit which is quite disturbing.

They tell me that homelessness is on the rise and the casual level of acceptance is strange, someone recently returned from New York told me that the homeless were polite and the populous didn’t seem to notice them.

We had an internment ceremony last week for an Aussie relative who had spent the last 60 years living and working in the US and Canada, he was a very successful in the newspaper industry there the editor of some household names. I will miss catching up and getting his perspective on things including US politics.

This will make you laugh gringo given your dark Carlton link, he was interned in a family grave along with his dad and my great great grandparents on my mothers side. My great great grandfather was at that famous meeting at the grace darling hotel when the Collingwood football club was founded, he was on the committee for years and a Vice President.

That's cool, my recent family history discovery that nearly had a footy link...well only in name. My maternal grandfathers uncle was the mayor of Sydney, he was there to open the harbour bridge as he was mayor of North Sydney at the time....he was a mayor in New Zealand before that and was mayor of St Kilda...unfortunately a shit NZ one, not the one our club is named after. He seemed to be in some kind of masonic thing called the Oddfellows, sounds appropriate to our family.
 
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Old manufacturing is done IMO.

Capital will always shift to developing countries with cheap Labour

Eventually the Chinese middle class will burgeon and Labour costs will increase.

Then it will shift to India or some other underdeveloped country.

So we need some vision for the future. We need to get smarter and face reality rather than the empty rhetoric about saving Jobs.

The sooner we rip the bandaid off the better we will be.
I think all the big economies still have a manufacturing component though. Maybe they manufacture things that need a bit more tech.
OR they are home to multinationals who profit from the cheap 3rd world manufacturing.

We never had a lot of home grown company's and a lot of them sold out. Is Hills still going?

Looking at the USA , they have Google, Amazon
They have aerospace and military

Yes they can make it without menial low paid manufacturing, but our manufacturers were smart and realized there is more money in retail. ( now being sucked away by online shopping ).

What i'd like us to do....bearing in mind the environment, is find state of the art technology to process the minerals we mine. How on earth is it economical to ship boatloads of dirt around the world? In general mineral processing is NOT labor intensive.
Shipping was a pretty good chunk of global emissions last time i looked, more than all of Australia's global emissions. No-one seems to be able to think globally , but prefer to do the " i'm gunna do my bit and buy a Prius " logic.
No one will fix global emissions by doing their bit. ( Especially if they buy a Prius then go overseas on vacation each year ).

Anyway, my thing is Vertical integration, start with the minerals use it to make products. If we can then be competitive with simple components thats where we go next .
Its bullshit to say we need to focus on technology then tell the world we can't make stainless steel, here buy our dirt and you make it.
 

gringo2011

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I think all the big economies still have a manufacturing component though. Maybe they manufacture things that need a bit more tech.
OR they are home to multinationals who profit from the cheap 3rd world manufacturing.

We never had a lot of home grown company's and a lot of them sold out. Is Hills still going?

Looking at the USA , they have Google, Amazon
They have aerospace and military

Yes they can make it without menial low paid manufacturing, but our manufacturers were smart and realized there is more money in retail. ( now being sucked away by online shopping ).

What i'd like us to do....bearing in mind the environment, is find state of the art technology to process the minerals we mine. How on earth is it economical to ship boatloads of dirt around the world? In general mineral processing is NOT labor intensive.
Shipping was a pretty good chunk of global emissions last time i looked, more than all of Australia's global emissions. No-one seems to be able to think globally , but prefer to do the " i'm gunna do my bit and buy a Prius " logic.
No one will fix global emissions by doing their bit. ( Especially if they buy a Prius then go overseas on vacation each year ).

Anyway, my thing is Vertical integration, start with the minerals use it to make products. If we can then be competitive with simple components thats where we go next .
Its bullshit to say we need to focus on technology then tell the world we can't make stainless steel, here buy our dirt and you make it.
We give away our gas and our paper chips. Value adding to provide local jobs just isn't going to happen unless the government funds the set up though and then it's not really market driven any more. Globalisation is great for big companies and people in the third world who want to move to a more modern lifestyle by becoming manufacturing workers.

The problem with big companies like Apple, Nike, Google etc is that they all take money out of the countries they operate in but don't like to pay tax. You have big business competing to take the most money and pay the least tax.

If I was Australia I would set up like New Zealand does with produce and sell a premium agricultural products. Limit foreign investment in Aus businesses and farm land. Buy back our utilities and transport, have science and innovation industries funded by government and commercialised by government etc. We need to become a producer of something and with wages high we can't really do mass manufacturing any more....especially since we sold of the machinery.
 

VDS66

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I think all the big economies still have a manufacturing component though. Maybe they manufacture things that need a bit more tech.
OR they are home to multinationals who profit from the cheap 3rd world manufacturing.

We never had a lot of home grown company's and a lot of them sold out. Is Hills still going?

Looking at the USA , they have Google, Amazon
They have aerospace and military

Yes they can make it without menial low paid manufacturing, but our manufacturers were smart and realized there is more money in retail. ( now being sucked away by online shopping ).

What i'd like us to do....bearing in mind the environment, is find state of the art technology to process the minerals we mine. How on earth is it economical to ship boatloads of dirt around the world? In general mineral processing is NOT labor intensive.
Shipping was a pretty good chunk of global emissions last time i looked, more than all of Australia's global emissions. No-one seems to be able to think globally , but prefer to do the " i'm gunna do my bit and buy a Prius " logic.
No one will fix global emissions by doing their bit. ( Especially if they buy a Prius then go overseas on vacation each year ).

Anyway, my thing is Vertical integration, start with the minerals use it to make products. If we can then be competitive with simple components thats where we go next .
Its bullshit to say we need to focus on technology then tell the world we can't make stainless steel, here buy our dirt and you make it.
I agree.

The problem we have is we look at things in terms of last century.

I encourage you to watch the Third Industrial Revolution. Boring as batshit but makes a lot of sense.

The clarity you get from.it is enormous.

It's neither left or right, just economics.

The big problem is that private enterprise and capital flow only goes to areas that are profitable.

As has always been the case, it's the government that drives the infrastructure fit business to flourish.

It's happened in rail, roads, telecommunications and energy.

If what you suggest isn't instantly appealing to shareholders it won't happen. Capital gravitates to profit.

The challenge with your proposal is that whatever you manufacture, a country with cheap labour will reverse engineer and put you out of business. Or the business will manufacture overseas due to costs.

The only way to remain competitive is introduce a regime of third world wages.
 
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I agree.

The problem we have is we look at things in terms of last century.

I encourage you to watch the Third Industrial Revolution. Boring as batshit but makes a lot of sense.

The clarity you get from.it is enormous.

It's neither left or right, just economics.

The big problem is that private enterprise and capital flow only goes to areas that are profitable.

As has always been the case, it's the government that drives the infrastructure fit business to flourish.

It's happened in rail, roads, telecommunications and energy.

If what you suggest isn't instantly appealing to shareholders it won't happen. Capital gravitates to profit.

The challenge with your proposal is that whatever you manufacture, a country with cheap labour will reverse engineer and put you out of business. Or the business will manufacture overseas due to costs.

The only way to remain competitive is introduce a regime of third world wages.
OK we own the iron ore, the mine can't be transported overseas, and so far they don't allow the Chinese to come here and mine it. LOCKED IN.
Now we normally ship the ore overseas , with a bit put aside for the domestic market.

My point is that its more efficient to make higher density material close to the mine, then ship it overseas , than it is to ship unprocessed material overseas and make it there.
Talking processes rather than inventions.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cleaner-cheaper-way-to-make-steel-uses-electricity/

Port Hedland is in a pretty good location for Solar Energy, albeit something like a steel mill would need pretty solid backup.
If the world goes down the path of actually taxing CO2 properly - then clean Steel, and reduced shipping should be a major advantage.

Unfortunately we take the attitude that if we produce Steel in Australia, it counts against us in "Per Capita" global emissions, but its perfectly fine for us to sell coal and gas to others ( surely they won't burn it and make CO2 ).

I hate the whole per-capita emissions thing and the "not in my backyard" mentality. The world needs to be looked at as a whole and the main sources of emissions improved or eliminated.
Fred Bogan who drives around in V8 and tows his Caravan to Queensland for a family vacation each year, probably contributes less to CO2 emissions than your typical businessman who has to fly overseas several times a year.
 

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View attachment 629058
WHAT IS JOHN HOWARD SAYING TO CARDINAL GEORGE PELL?

A. Remember our deal, $200,000 to be deposited into my Panama bank account
B. You have lovely soft hands!
C. Purple bishop!??
D. All of the above
As someone who was raised Catholic but is now an atheist, I say castrate the bastard and torture him. Child abuse is all too common and all too often covered up in the Catholic Church. The Church isn't responsible for perverts wanting to enter the clergy, but it is responsible for how it deals with proven pervert priests, and all too often it has put its reputation before child welfare. Pell is another predator who lacks any remorse for his crimes. A total hypocrite and fraud.
 
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I agree with a lot of that.
Not so sure about 3D printing. Its great for some items, but there can be a lot more than shape to a product.
For a long time we've had the ability , that a store selling CD's or DVD's could produce professionally packaged versions of any recording or movie in the world if they had relatively cheap equipment, but for whatever reason they seem to stick to the old fashioned, -- Buy Stock --- Fill Shelves --- Sell most of it if you wait long enough... throw out the rest.
I really have no idea why this is.
 
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