Reasons we will beat Hawthorn

[MrFujiMoto]

Only have to look at our games against north, Brisbane and swans to find similar examples for us.

I agree and we would be stupid to review any of those games to see "how" to beat the Crows. We will hopefully keep our heads down and just try to play our game for the majority of the contest. I think the team are confident when they are able to do that. I think your game against the Swans really looked more like a "holy sh*t, wtf is this" type of scenario that threw you off your game than a "we will get the points here so just do what we have to do" type of scenario - which is how I think the Crows treated North and Brisbane. I think that Swans game was an unfortunate by-product of your last Month leading into finals. The coaches would have revved the guys up to expect an extra 25% intensity etc but until they had witnessed it, I don't think many of them really knew what to expect.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

We have nothing to lose and need to play that way...

We need to play kamikaze football as if it is the last game we play. Hawthorn are unbackable favourites and their players will be desperate to not get reported/injured... This could give us the edge.. We need to play as if this week is our Grand Final. Don't even think about next week

 

[The King!]

Of course we are beatable, same as you guys. I do think that if we play to 95% of our capability for 95% of the match then we are very hard to beat. If we do not click or are not switched on then we are very vulnerable. But you would never plan for a team to be at 6-% of their best, that is planning to fail.

Yep agree, get what u r saying

 

[Realslimshady2]

Last four results have been Crows(09)/Hawks(10)/Crows(11)/Hawks(12) so based on that we are next in line for a win

 

[moogerfooger]

I don't expect us to win unless a meteor strikes Waverley while the Hawks train, but in the spirit of this thread:

Commentators made a lot of our soft run into the finals and Hawthorn's match hardening run - but that is now reversed. The week off can sometimes prove problematic while we've had two tough, hard finals against very good sides. We're now match hardened, they're coming off a bye. There's a small possibility this could work to our advantage and if so, we might just be able to jump them early. That said, we'd need to be 10 goals up with less than 10 minutes to play before I even start to get comfortable.

Second, a few commentators (like Mark Maclure) questioned Hawthorn's mental toughness earlier in the year. He famously called them chokers after they lost a couple of matches they were expected to win. There's a small possibility some of their younger players may struggle with the weight of expectation, which will be magnified in Melbourne because not much time is going to spent talking about the Crows chances this week. It was only two weeks ago Fremantle caught Geelong with their pants down.

That said, I don't think either of these scenarios are likely and we're really going to struggle to stay competitive. But our club has won 2 of 3 Prelims at the G and we've been rank outsiders in all of them, so while there's life, there's hope.

GO CROWS.

 

[Realslimshady2]

I don't expect us to win unless a meteor strikes Waverley while the Hawks train, but in the spirit of this thread:

Commentators made a lot of our soft run into the finals and Hawthorn's match hardening run - but that is now reversed. The week off can sometimes prove problematic while we've had two tough, hard finals against very good sides. We're now match hardened, they're coming off a bye. There's a small possibility this could work to our advantage and if so, we might just be able to jump them early. That said, we'd need to be 10 goals up with less than 10 minutes to play before I even start to get comfortable.

Second, a few commentators (like Mark Maclure) questioned Hawthorn's mental toughness earlier in the year. He famously called them chokers after they lost a couple of matches they were expected to win. There's a small possibility some of their younger players may struggle with the weight of expectation, which will be magnified in Melbourne because not much time is going to spent talking about the Crows chances this week. It was only two weeks ago Fremantle caught Geelong with their pants down.

That said, I don't think either of these scenarios are likely and we're really going to struggle to stay competitive. But our club has won 2 of 3 Prelims at the G and we've been rank outsiders in all of them, so while there's life, there's hope.

GO CROWS.

Good post. I just hope the players get over the early nerves and then throw everything they can at the Hawks. No team is unbeatable. I may need 20 goals with 10 minutes to go though

 

[srv23]

Not at all, just saying if that is the Hawthorn you are expecting to play against then you could be in for a very rude shock. I know, from your previous post, that you think we are being very arrogant and my post may have rubbed you up the wrong way. We have played completely differently to that Tiggers game for the remainder of the season. This is evidenced by the fact that after the Tigers game we went 12 - 1. We were 5 - 4 prior to that game.

I do agree with you. But by the same token, why do Hawks fans keep bringing up the game you beat us at the G in round 3 by 56 points as evidence of you having us covered. We have played far differently as well since that game and despite the scoreline we actually won the contested possessions that day and the scoreline flattered you somewhat given our inaccuracy in front of goal. T ex is also a far diiferent beast to the guy who played you round 3. All logic suggests you will win, and in particular, given our injuries, I think we will seriously struggle to contain your forwards. However the general dismissal of us having any chance whatsoever is downright insulting. The media are not just saying that we can't win, they are saying that we won't even be competetive. We heard all this in 97 and 98 - hell during the GF parade in 97, the St Kilda players were on tv saying they would beat us by 5 or 6 goals. It would be one of the biggest upsets of all time if we get up, but it's a 2 horse race and footy is an interesting game. 99 prelim ring any bells?

 

[srv23]

Yeah, there are to many scenarios that could go back and forth. mitchell was well out of form, as was Sewell when we played you guys last time. A that stage we were ranked 11th or so for clearances and we are now on top of clearances so I don't think your forward line will get the same supply this time. Much of this has come on the back of the form of Mitch and Sewell. I think Mitch had 20 and Sewell 15 last time we played. You guys did blow your chances in front of goal, that is for sure.

?

You are the number 1 clearance side, but you are aware that we are the number 2 clearance side. You average a whole 0.8 clearances per game more than us. We have 2 players ranked in the top 10 clearance players in the comp, you have none. You mention Mitchell and Sewell being out of form last time we played, but fail to acknowledge that virutally our entire side was poor that game. You are likely to win, but you're going to have to do more than just turn up at the G believing you are entitled to a grand final berth.

 

[Realslimshady2]

I agree and we would be stupid to review any of those games to see "how" to beat the Crows. We will hopefully keep our heads down and just try to play our game for the majority of the contest. I think the team are confident when they are able to do that. I think your game against the Swans really looked more like a "holy sh*t, wtf is this" type of scenario that threw you off your game than a "we will get the points here so just do what we have to do" type of scenario - which is how I think the Crows treated North and Brisbane. I think that Swans game was an unfortunate by-product of your last Month leading into finals. The coaches would have revved the guys up to expect an extra 25% intensity etc but until they had witnessed it, I don't think many of them really knew what to expect.

Just had a read of the hawks v adelaide thread on your board with pretty much everyone saying how you are an absolute certainty to be in the grand final.
Going to be some seriously embarrassed supporters if you don't get up

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

this time though we have nothing to lose, I say we ******* go for it, and play the game on our bloody terms, who cares if it doesn't come off? At least we tried, all the pressure is on them to win.

Dont know why so many people are saying Adelaide have nothing to lose. If theres nothing to lose, theres nothing to win either right??

 

[BUTTON 92]

Yeah, there are to many scenarios that could go back and forth. mitchell was well out of form, as was Sewell when we played you guys last time. A that stage we were ranked 11th or so for clearances and we are now on top of clearances so I don't think your forward line will get the same supply this time. Much of this has come on the back of the form of Mitch and Sewell. I think Mitch had 20 and Sewell 15 last time we played. You guys did blow your chances in front of goal, that is for sure.

I dont know that I would be happy with the psyche of the team if I was a Crows supporter, if that is the case what happens if you get 25 points up and are expected to win from there?

Is that a joke? Mitchell was in awesome form before we played you! Do you even check the facts before you post?

 

[MrFujiMoto]

You are the number 1 clearance side, but you are aware that we are the number 2 clearance side. You average a whole 0.8 clearances per game more than us. We have 2 players ranked in the top 10 clearance players in the comp, you have none. You mention Mitchell and Sewell being out of form last time we played, but fail to acknowledge that virutally our entire side was poor that game. You are likely to win, but you're going to have to do more than just turn up at the G believing you are entitled to a grand final berth.

Yeah I do, but you do realise when we last played we were about 12 - 13th and you guys were in the top 3 or 5. I was highlighting an area of our improvement. As for individuals being this or that, who cares? This is a team game and I think the fact that we have no one in that top 10 highlights a serious issue the Crows face this week. Who do you shut down? Round 3 and Sewell and Mitch were shut down but Lewis and co got off the leash.

I don't think anyone thinks that all we have to do is turn up. I think when we play our best game for more than 90% of a game then we are VERY hard to beat and I have said that previously in this thread.

There is no-one, bar the media trying to peddle their product, that feels all we need to do is turn up.

Here is what OUR players are saying -

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/4742/newsid/147824/default.aspx

 

[Smoooothy]

Dont know why so many people are saying Adelaide have nothing to lose. If theres nothing to lose, theres nothing to win either right??

you read rooch's article this morning too huh

(or you are rooch.......)

 

[MrFujiMoto]

Is that a joke? Mitchell was in awesome form before we played you! Do you even check the facts before you post?

I should have said you guys kept his output down, but yes I do check my facts, thanks for asking! My point was to illustrate that last time we met, even with him being quiet and us losing the clearances we still won the i50 count and the game comfortably. What does it count for in the grand scheme of things, who knows. We are a much better clearance side than we were in rd 3 so I think it will be harder for you guys to beat us in the clearances than the last time we played. I am sure you guys are playing better in other areas too, though you were in pretty good form, being undefeated in the NAB and the first 2 rounds.

 

[BUTTON 92]

I should have said you guys kept his output down, but yes I do check my facts, thanks for asking! My point was to illustrate that last time we met, even with him being quiet and us losing the clearances we still won the i50 count and the game comfortably. What does it count for in the grand scheme of things, who knows. We are a much better clearance side than we were in rd 3 so I think it will be harder for you guys to beat us in the clearances than the last time we played. I am sure you guys are playing better in other areas too, though you were in pretty good form, being undefeated in the NAB and the first 2 rounds.

Fair enough. So then the Credit goes to Van Berlo for keeping an inform Mitchell quite. But yes the teams have changed alot since round 3 and look forward to seeing what unfolds...

 

[srv23]

Yeah I do, but you do realise when we last played we were about 12 - 13th and you guys were in the top 3 or 5. I was highlighting an area of our improvement.

True but it was round 3 - we had played gold coast and bulldogs, From memory you guys had played teams like Collingwood and Geelong? Ladder counts for nothing at that stage of the season. At the end of the season you finished top and we finished second, and before we get the soft draw brought up, even if those 2 games were not against GC/GWS and against any 2 other sides, there seems to be an assumption that we would have lost and that somehow those 2 games (not counting Port twice as we always get Port twice) are the difference between a side finishing top 2 with 17 wins and finishing out of the 8. We will struggle to beat you but I think it is going to be a lot more competetive than many people think.

As for what your players are saying in public, it may well be very different to what they believe in private. Only 2 weeks ago Tyson Goldsack said on Before the Game that he was "not overly worried" about having to face Adelaide in the finals - and that was after the Pies getting smashed 2 weeks in a row against North and WC and scraping through against the Bombers.It seems that even though we have climbed from 14th to top 4 and made a prelim, we will still not get any credit for how good our season has been unless we manage to beat you against the odds, while North Melbourne with the same "soft draw" are being lauded for there improvement from 9th to 8th!

 

[Corzafa]

They will choke with the expectation that they have already won the Grand Final...

 

[MrFujiMoto]

I do agree with you. But by the same token, why do Hawks fans keep bringing up the game you beat us at the G in round 3 by 56 points as evidence of you having us covered. We have played far differently as well since that game and despite the scoreline we actually won the contested possessions that day and the scoreline flattered you somewhat given our inaccuracy in front of goal. T ex is also a far diiferent beast to the guy who played you round 3. All logic suggests you will win, and in particular, given our injuries, I think we will seriously struggle to contain your forwards. However the general dismissal of us having any chance whatsoever is downright insulting. The media are not just saying that we can't win, they are saying that we won't even be competetive. We heard all this in 97 and 98 - hell during the GF parade in 97, the St Kilda players were on tv saying they would beat us by 5 or 6 goals. It would be one of the biggest upsets of all time if we get up, but it's a 2 horse race and footy is an interesting game. 99 prelim ring any bells?

Believe it or not I agree, the media are being painful but I think that angst needs to be delivered at them. They are the ones showing no respect to the Crows

 

[MrFujiMoto]

Fair enough. So then the Credit goes to Van Berlo for keeping an inform Mitchell quite. But yes the teams have changed alot since round 3 and look forward to seeing what unfolds...

It does, as i said though with us having such an even spread in the middle it is hard to keep the team down, even when you lock down on someone like mitch. Geelong always lock down on Mitch, it has worked for them most of the time. We had no Hodge in rd3 and he is the other option the Cats normally lock down on. It is either Mitch or Hodge for the Cats, I remember an interview with Lingy after he had finished playing and him saying that the would almost raffle who they locked down on.

 

[Damp Squarie]

Tex Factor>Buddy Awful

 

[MrFujiMoto]

True but it was round 3 - we had played gold coast and bulldogs, From memory you guys had played teams like Collingwood and Geelong? Ladder counts for nothing at that stage of the season. At the end of the season you finished top and we finished second, and before we get the soft draw brought up, even if those 2 games were not against GC/GWS and against any 2 other sides, there seems to be an assumption that we would have lost and that somehow those 2 games (not counting Port twice as we always get Port twice) are the difference between a side finishing top 2 with 17 wins and finishing out of the 8. We will struggle to beat you but I think it is going to be a lot more competetive than many people think.

As for what your players are saying in public, it may well be very different to what they believe in private. Only 2 weeks ago Tyson Goldsack said on Before the Game that he was "not overly worried" about having to face Adelaide in the finals - and that was after the Pies getting smashed 2 weeks in a row against North and WC and scraping through against the Bombers.It seems that even though we have climbed from 14th to top 4 and made a prelim, we will still not get any credit for how good our season has been unless we manage to beat you against the odds, while North Melbourne with the same "soft draw" are being lauded for there improvement from 9th to 8th!

Ok, this is a bit off topic but you seem to have been agrieved by what many in the media are saying. For the record I agree with them to some extent so maybe I am the wrong person to be saying the following but anyway. I feel there is a reason soooooooooooooooooo many people believe that you are where you are partly because of your draw and like it or not, they are not all anti Adelaide. Some have just looked at the scenario that unfolded and went "it is what it is". I think you finished the seaon with 2 more wins than you would have with a draw that was comparible to the other top 5 teams. Now to me your effort this year has been super and in a way, after getting you the double chance, your draw has hurt you come finals. I believe it was a fair factor in you getting done by the Swans and starting so slow against a Freo that was manic. You were lucky that they were never going to be able to keep it up for the whole game (as any team would be lucky, they were insane) and that you guys finally found your feet.

Forget North, they were shown up for being the also rans they have been all year.

Seriously, why do you care about what the media think of the Crows. You got your draw, you took full advantage of it and you earnt a double chance. Enjoy it.

 

[Geoffa32]

Yeah, there are to many scenarios that could go back and forth. mitchell was well out of form, as was Sewell when we played you guys last time. A that stage we were ranked 11th or so for clearances and we are now on top of clearances so I don't think your forward line will get the same supply this time. Much of this has come on the back of the form of Mitch and Sewell. I think Mitch had 20 and Sewell 15 last time we played. You guys did blow your chances in front of goal, that is for sure.

I dont know that I would be happy with the psyche of the team if I was a Crows supporter, if that is the case what happens if you get 25 points up and are expected to win from there?

Touche........is our worst "fear" being 25-30 points up with time left in the game.

 

[Realslimshady2]

Touche........is our worst "fear" being 25-30 points up with time left in the game.

This is when Danger and Tex fire up and we kick away for a 60 point win.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

you read rooch's article this morning too huh

(or you are rooch.......)

If I was rooch I would punch myself in the face every morning. Nah I heard it on the radio. Its easy to say theres nothing to lose because Adelaide have over-achieved this season, and have now won a final and will finish top for after the H&A season as well as after the finals, but im sure the players dont have this attitude. A Grand Final birth is within reach, losing is not acceptable to the players

 

[Freddy Bassett]

If I was rooch I would punch myself in the face every morning. Nah I heard it on the radio. Its easy to say theres nothing to lose because Adelaide have over-achieved this season, and have now won a final and will finish top for after the H&A season as well as after the finals, but im sure the players dont have this attitude. A Grand Final birth is within reach, losing is not acceptable to the players

It is the mindset we need though. Playing careful, nervous rubbish like the first quarter last week and we will get smashed.