As I understand it, the problem with tassi is tmall small population as you noted, no money other than Govt handouts and the already small population is divided between Launseston and Hobart - a good days drive apart and they hate each other.The problem is the biggest market is Victoria and new fans are being sought in Qld and NSW. WA and SA are tapped out already so why do more for those states? Why bother with Tasmania if the population isn't here to bring in $$? It's all focused on money first.
As a national comp, it's fairly young. Only 30 years of being the AFL in an evolution from the VFL... I wouldn't be surprised if at some point, bigger clubs staged some sort of move to break away. May take decades. But it will only take the likes of Collingwood/Richmond and some others to make it happen. If they decide the benefits outweigh sticking with outdated concepts.