Return of the algorithm

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips - round 5.

Melbourne 26.47
Geelong 22.47
Collingwood 14.91
Richmond 12.87
Sydney 12.19
St Kilda 11.94
Carlton 7.1
Port Adelaide 6.64
Brisbane 5.7
Adelaide 2.4
Fremantle -0.52
Essendon -1.37
Western Bulldogs -4.17
GWS -6.83
Gold Coast -7.94
North Melbourne -15.27
West Coast -15.33
Hawthorn -19.54

(Gather round - home advantage only recorded for Adelaide and Port Adelaide)

Adelaide +7 v Carlton
Fremantle +7 v Gold Coast
Richmond +1 v Sydney
Brisbane +21 v North Melbourne
Essendon v Melbourne +28
Port Adelaide +23 v Western Bulldogs
Geelong +38 v West Coast
GWS +13 v Hawthorn
Collingwood +3 v St Kilda

7/9. Running total 29.5/45

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips, Round 6.

Geelong 23.67
Melbourne 19.54
Collingwood 15.92
Sydney 15.45
St Kilda 13.66
Brisbane 8.88
Richmond 8.1
Port Adelaide 6.53
Adelaide 6.51
Essendon 4.19
Carlton 1.32
Fremantle 1.11
Western Bulldogs -3.4
GWS -6.24
Gold Coast -6.46
West Coast -17.7
Hawthorn -18.4
North Melbourne -19.5

Fremantle +17 v Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide +36 v West Coast
GWS v Brisbane +9
Geelong +14 v Sydney
Hawthorn v Adelaide +13
Carlton v St Kilda +12
Gold Coast +19 v North Melbourne
Melbourne +11 v Richmond
Collingwood +12 v Essendon

8/9, running total 37.5/54

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective Tips, Round 7.

Geelong 29.34
Melbourne 20.21
St Kilda 16.49
Collingwood 16.07
Brisbane 10.59
Sydney 9.23
Port Adelaide 8.79
Richmond 5.77
Essendon 5.45
Western Bulldogs 5.15
Adelaide 3.96
Carlton 1.35
Gold Coast -3.66
Fremantle -7.16
GWS -8.44
Hawthorn -18
West Coast -18.3
North Melbourne -22.53

St Kilda +14 v Port Adelaide
Brisbane +30 v Fremantle
Sydney +18 v GWS
Western Bulldogs +23 v Hawthorn
Melbourne +43 v North Melbourne
Carlton +8 v West Coast
Geelong +24 v Essendon
Richmond +15 v Gold Coast
Adelaide v Collingwood +1

6/9, and a painful moment to get the Adelaide/Collingwood margin right. Running total 43.5/63

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips, round 8.

Geelong 30.31
Melbourne 23.23
Collingwood 16.74
St Kilda 15
Brisbane 13.89
Port Adelaide 11.71
Carlton 9.83
Sydney 8.22
Essendon 6.16
Western Bulldogs 6.01
Adelaide 5.08
Richmond 2.47
Gold Coast 0.62
GWS -5.39
Fremantle -9.19
Hawthorn -18.3
North Melbourne -24.5
West Coast -25.8

Carlton +2 v Brisbane
Richmond +40 v West Coast
Geelong +37 v Adelaide
Gold Coast v Melbourne +17
GWS v Western Bulldogs +5
Fremantle +21 v Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +18 v Essendon
Collingwood +15 v Sydney
North Melbourne v St Kilda +40

8/9. Running total 51.5/72.

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips, round 9.

Geelong 28.25
Melbourne 22
Collingwood 20
Brisbane 18.63
St Kilda 13.12
Essendon 9.59
Port Adelaide 8.85
Western Bulldogs 7.67
Adelaide 6.77
Carlton 6.55
Sydney 4.36
Richmond 1.85
Fremantle -3.45
Gold Coast -3.7
GWS -6.67
Hawthorn -21.2
North Melbourne -24.2
West Coast -27.1

Richmond v Geelong +26
West Coast v Gold Coast +11
Sydney +29 v Fremantle
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide +21
Hawthorn v Melbourne +43
Brisbane +15 v Essendon
Carlton v Western Bulldogs +1
Adelaide +6 v St Kilda
Collingwood +33 v Giants

7/9, running total 58.5/81

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips, round 10.

Brisbane 23
Collingwood 22.7
Melbourne 22.3
Geelong 21.9
Adelaide 13.2
Port Adelaide 11.5
Western Bulldogs 11.4
St Kilda 9.77
Essendon 7.81
Richmond 6.28
Gold Coast 6.14
Carlton 3.43
Sydney 0.52
Fremantle 0.45
GWS -9.14
Hawthorn -15.55
North Melbourne -27
West Coast -32

Port Adelaide +1 v Melbourne
North Melbourne v Sydney +22
Western Bulldogs +10 v Adelaide
Fremantle v Geelong +9
Brisbane +17 v Gold Coast
Essendon +2 v Richmond
Hawthorn +28 v West Coast
Carlton v Collingwood +19
GWS v St Kilda +13

8/9, running total 66.5/90.

 

[Hobbes]

Retrospective tips, round 11.

Brisbane 26.7
Collingwood 22.7
Melbourne 21.7
Western Bulldogs 15.6
Geelong 15.1
Port Adelaide 11.2
Adelaide 9.56
St Kilda 9.32
Essendon 7.43
Fremantle 3.91
Richmond 2.9
Carlton 1.79
Gold Coast -0.52
Sydney -4.85
GWS -9.25
Hawthorn -17
North Melbourne -27
West Coast -42

Sydney v Carlton +1
St Kilda +26 v Hawthorn
Melbourne +30 v Fremantle
Geelong +30 v GWS
Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs +10
West Coast v Essendon +38
Richmond +4 v Port Adelaide
Collingwood +50 v North Melbourne
Adelaide v Brisbane +5

Carnage. 2/9, running total 68.5/99.

An interesting thing here is that some of the "upsets" the computer didn't rate as a big deal, like Gold Coast and Adelaide.

You can believe my tips or not, but the running score of 69 puts my algorithm fairly well-placed compared to the legion of tipsters listed on the Squiggle homepage. Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

(In my running total, I counted 1/2 for the drawn game, but the Squiggle listing counts draws as a win.)

There's a slight disconnect between the ratings in the retrospective tips - round 11 was still using scores from the 2022 semi-finals onward - and the ratings and predictions in my original post - I decided with my original post that at the half-way point of the season, last year's scores were no longer germane.

 

[Maylandsman]

Interesting to see Collingwood's rating improved significantly between rounds 1 and 2, enough to see them favoured to beat Port Adelaide.

I smell something fishy...

Who cares what you smell…give up being an arsehat.

 

[Hobbes]

Melbourne +23 v Carlton
Port Adelaide +41 v Hawthorn
West Coast v Collingwood +64
Western Bulldogs +10 v Geelong
Gold Coast +1 v Adelaide
GWS v Richmond +1
Essendon +36 v North Melbourne

6/7, falling on my feet with the close matches. 75/106.

Brisbane 20.84
Collingwood 18.79
Melbourne 17.25
Port Adelaide 11.24 (+2)
Western Bulldogs 8.66 (-1)
Geelong 6.81 (+3)
Adelaide 6.33 (-2)
Fremantle 3.97 (-1)
Gold Coast 2.06 (+2)
St Kilda 1.75
Essendon 0.94 (-3)
Richmond -3.02
Sydney -3.33
Carlton -5.93
GWS -11.7
Hawthorn -20.51
North Melbourne -28.38
West Coast -55.11

Collingwood 18.1
Brisbane 16.44
Port Adelaide 16.40
Melbourne 15.57 (+1)
Western Bulldogs 14.31 (-1)
St Kilda 13.50
Essendon 13.10 (+1)
Fremantle 12.78 (+1)
Adelaide 12.69 (-2)
Gold Coast 11.65
Geelong 11.63
Sydney 10.44
Richmond 9.74 (+1)
Carlton 9.67 (-1)
GWS 8.12
Hawthorn 6.08
North Melbourne 4.76
West Coast 1.90

and tips for round 13

Sydney +1 v St Kilda
Western Bulldogs +9 v Port Adelaide
Hawthorn v Brisbane +35
Adelaide +73 v West Coast
Fremantle +19 v Richmond
North Melbourne v GWS +11
Carlton v Essendon +7
Melbourne v Collingwood +3

 

[Pie eyed]

I think my algorithm responds more quickly to form shifts than many other tipping methods.

On this weeks results and predictions you look like you have something interesting to play with. Congrats on the hard work.

Pies beat Brisbane in the GF though....

 

[Hobbes]

Sydney +1 v St Kilda
Western Bulldogs +9 v Port Adelaide
Hawthorn v Brisbane +35
Adelaide +73 v West Coast
Fremantle +19 v Richmond
North Melbourne v GWS +11
Carlton v Essendon +7
Melbourne v Collingwood +3

3/8. 78/114

1. Collingwood 16 (+1)
2. Melbourne 14.61 (+1)
3. Port Adelaide 14.19 (+1)
4. Brisbane 12.09 (-3)
5. Adelaide 5.93 (+2)
6. Geelong 5.46
7. Western Bulldogs 3.93 (-2)
8. St Kilda 3.45 (+2)
9. Essendon 2.67 (+2)
10. Richmond 0.04 (+2)
11. Gold Coast -0.36 (-2)
12. Fremantle -1.68 (-4)
13. Sydney -6.64
14. GWS -10.78 (+1)
15. Carlton -12.04 (-1)
16. Hawthorn -14.51
17. North Melbourne -31.66
18. West Coast -57.1

1. Collingwood 17.56
2. Port Adelaide 17.43 (+1)
3. Melbourne 16.11 (+1)
4. Brisbane 14.82 (-2)
5. St Kilda 14.38 (+1)
6. Essendon 13.86 (+1)
7. Western Bulldogs 13.33 (-2)
8. Adelaide 12.83 (+1)
9. Geelong 11.69 (+2)
10. Fremantle 11.68 (-2)
11. Gold Coast 11.58 (-1)
12. Richmond 10.84 (+1)
13. Sydney 9.79 (-1)
14. GWS 8.74 (+1)
15. Carlton 8.72 (-1)
16. Hawthorn 7.73
17. North Melbourne 4.07
18. West Coast 1.81

Port Adelaide +21 v Geelong
Brisbane +25 v Sydney
GWS +3 v Fremantle
Richmond v St Kilda +3
Carlton v Gold Coast +6
North Melbourne v Bulldogs +36

 

[Hobbes]

Port Adelaide +21 v Geelong
Brisbane +25 v Sydney
GWS +3 v Fremantle
Richmond v St Kilda +3
Carlton v Gold Coast +6
North Melbourne v Bulldogs +36

4/5, 82/120

1. Port Adelaide 16.14 (+2)
2. Collingwood 15.61 (-1)
3. Melbourne 13.18 (-1)
4. Brisbane 10.76
5. Adelaide 4.80
6. Essendon 3.91 (+3)
7. Geelong 3.1 (-1)
8. Richmond 2.98 (+2)
9. Western Bulldogs 2.44 (-2)
10. St Kilda 1.74 (-2)
11. GWS -3.55 (+3)
12. Carlton -5.02 (+3)
13. Sydney -5.23
14. Gold Coast -7.27 (-3)
15. Fremantle -8.68 (-3)
16. Hawthorn -12.59
17. North Melbourne -29.11
18. West Coast -49.49

1. Port Adelaide 17.89 (+1)
2. Collingwood 17.61
3. Melbourne 15.82
4. Brisbane 15.15
5. Essendon 13.97 (+1)
6. St Kilda 13.62 (-1)
7. Western Bulldogs 13.31
8. Adelaide 12.70
9. Richmond 11.55 (+3)
10. Geelong 11.22 (-1)
11. Fremantle 10.46 (-1)
12. Gold Coast 10.16 (-1)
13. Carlton 9.90 (+2)
14. GWS 9.84
15. Sydney 9.75 (-2)
16. Hawthorn 7.92
17. North Melbourne 4.11
18. West Coast 2.04

The field has split into factions.

Collingwood and Port are likely top 2, certain top 4.
Melbourne and Brisbane are likely top 4, certain finalists.
Essendon, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs are likely finalists.
Adelaide is the most likely finalist of the remaining teams.
Richmond and Geelong are the most likely teams to break into the 8.
Fremantle, Gold Coast, Carlton, GWS or Sydney would need a major form shift to make the finals, but they're not terrible.
Hawthorn is a small step from the previous bunch.
North Melbourne is the second-worst team.
West Coast is one of the worst teams in history.

Geelong v Melbourne +10
St Kilda v Brisbane +3
Sydney +63 v West Coast
Fremantle v Essendon +1
Collingwood +23 v Adelaide
Gold Coast +11 v Hawthorn

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong v Melbourne +10
St Kilda v Brisbane +3
Sydney +63 v West Coast
Fremantle v Essendon +1
Collingwood +23 v Adelaide
Gold Coast +11 v Hawthorn

4/6, 86/126

1. Brisbane 16.1 (+3)
2. Port Adelaide 15.12 (-1)
3. Collingwood 14.79 (-1)
4. Melbourne 11.66 (-1)
5. Adelaide 8.69
6. Geelong 7.38 (+1)
7. Western Bulldogs 4.11 (+2)
8. Richmond 3.38
9. Sydney 2.69 (+4)
10. Essendon 1.66 (-4)
11. St Kilda 0.8 (-1)
12. Gold Coast 0.35 (+2)
13. GWS -1.31 (-2)
14. Carlton -2.14 (-2)
15. Fremantle -2.82
16. Hawthorn -16.36
17. North Melbourne -24.48
18. West Coast -54.61

1. Collingwood 17.60 (+1)
2. Port Adelaide 17.56 (-1)
3. Brisbane 15.85 (+1)
4. Melbourne 14.85(-1)
5. Western Bulldogs 13.3 (+2)
6. Essendon 13.05 (-1)
7. St Kilda 12.91 (-1)
8. Adelaide 12.55
9. Geelong 12.00 (+1)
10. Richmond 11.54 (-1)
11. Fremantle 11.31
12. Gold Coast 10.99
13. Sydney 10.28 (+2)
14. Carlton 10.06 (-1)
15. GWS 9.88 (-1)
16. Hawthorn 7.04
17. North Melbourne 4.48
18. West Coast 1.73

Brisbane +18 v Richmond
Sydney +1 v Geelong
Adelaide +45 v North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +19 v Fremantle
Gold Coast v Collingwood +8
Essendon v Port Adelaide +2
Hawthorn v Carlton +14
Melbourne +19 v GWS
West Coast v St Kilda +43

 

[Hobbes]

Brisbane +18 v Richmond
Sydney +1 v Geelong
Adelaide +45 v North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +19 v Fremantle
Gold Coast v Collingwood +8
Essendon v Port Adelaide +2
Hawthorn v Carlton +14
Melbourne +19 v GWS
West Coast v St Kilda +43

8/9, 94/135. GWS preventing a clean sheet.

1. Collingwood 21.75 (+2)
2. Brisbane 21.38 (-1)
3. Port Adelaide 15.32 (-1)
4. Adelaide 11.33 (+1)
5. Melbourne 9.94 (-1)
6. Geelong 7.67
7. Western Bulldogs 5.17
8. Sydney 3.18 (+1)
9. Carlton 2.58 (+5)
10. Essendon 1.89
11. GWS 1.42 (+2)
12. Richmond -0.89 (-4)
13. St Kilda -2.90 (-2)
14. Fremantle -4.11 (+1)
15. Gold Coast -5.85 (-3)
16. Hawthorn -20.77
17. North Melbourne -24.79
18. West Coast -50.34

1. Collingwood 18.51
2. Port Adelaide 18.01
3. Brisbane 16.56
4. Melbourne 14.02
5. Western Bulldogs 13.67
6. Adelaide 12.77 (+2)
7. St Kilda 12.75
8. Essendon 12.46 (-2)
9. Geelong 11.96 *
10. Richmond 10.90 *
11. GWS 10.80
12. Carlton 10.77 (+2) *
13. Fremantle 10.77 (-2)
14. Sydney 10.39 (-1) *
15. Gold Coast 9.96 (-3)
16. Hawthorn 6.34
17. North Melbourne 4.57
18. West Coast 1.79

*: drawn game, so (percentage-wise) competing with each other but probably not anybody else.

Richmond +2 v Sydney
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood +17
Brisbane +84 v West Coast (this might be the biggest margin the algorithm has ever tipped)
GWS +28 v Hawthorn
St Kilda v Melbourne +13
Port Adelaide +33 v Gold Coast
Geelong +33 v North Melbourne
Essendon +3 v Adelaide
Fremantle +5 v Carlton

 

[Hobbes]

Richmond +2 v Sydney
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood +17
Brisbane +84 v West Coast
GWS +28 v Hawthorn
St Kilda v Melbourne +13
Port Adelaide +33 v Gold Coast
Geelong +33 v North Melbourne
Essendon +3 v Adelaide
Fremantle +5 v Carlton

8/9. 102/144

1. Collingwood 21.44
2. Brisbane 19
3. Port Adelaide 15.47
4. Melbourne 11.1 (+1)
5. Geelong 10.04 (+1)
6. Adelaide 9.55
7. Carlton 8.88 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs 4.96 (-1)
9. Essendon 3.48 (+1)
10. Sydney 2.59 (-2)
11. Richmond -0.27 (+1)
12. GWS -0.57 (-1)
13. St Kilda -3.38
14. Gold Coast -5.34 (+1)
15. Fremantle -10.09 (-1)
16. Hawthorn -18.92
17. North Melbourne -27.65
18. West Coast -48.34

1. Collingwood 18.78
2. Port Adelaide 18.19
3. Brisbane 16.50
4. Melbourne 14.46
5. Western Bulldogs 13.28
6. Essendon 13.05 (+2)
7. Geelong 12.37 (+2)
8. St Kilda 12.29 (-1)
9. Adelaide 12.22 (-3)
10. Carlton 11.72 (+2)
11. Richmond 11.41 (-1)
12. GWS 10.82
13. Sydney 9.93 (-3)
14. Gold Coast 9.86 (+1)
15. Fremantle 9.78
16. Hawthorn 6.33
17. North Melbourne 4.12
18. West Coast 1.87

Sydney +4 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne v Brisbane +2
Collingwood +44 v Fremantle
Gold Coast +4 v St Kilda
Carlton +5 v Port
Geelong +7 v Essendon
Adelaide +22 v GWS
North Melbourne v Hawthorn +9
West Coast v Richmond +60

 

[Fadge]

Carlton +5 v Port

 

[Hobbes]

I don't interfere when the tips look non-intuitive, but I'll make the case for:

Port playing away
Port falling over the line in a lot of matches overstates their form line.
Carlton are having a good run at the moment.

I'm not saying I would make the same tip myself, but I will feel slightly smug if a small Carlton win comes to pass.

 

[Fadge]

I don't interfere when the tips look non-intuitive, but I'll make the case for:

Port playing away
Port falling over the line in a lot of matches overstates their form line.
Carlton are having a good run at the moment.

I'm not saying I would make the same tip myself, but I will feel slightly smug if a small Carlton win comes to pass.

Did your algorithm predict all the changes for Port?

 

[Hobbes]

Did your algorithm predict all the changes for Port?

It knows literally nothing of lineups. The only time I've paid attention is a few years ago when some teams rested their entire team for the last round - I just didn't attempt to predict the result.

 

[Hobbes]

Sydney +4 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne v Brisbane +2
Collingwood +44 v Fremantle
Gold Coast +4 v St Kilda
Carlton +5 v Port
Geelong +7 v Essendon
Adelaide +22 v GWS
North Melbourne v Hawthorn +9
West Coast v Richmond +60

7/9, 109/153.

1. Collingwood 21.48
2. Brisbane 18.85
3. Geelong 15.64 (+2)
4. Carlton 13.87 (+3)
5. Melbourne 12.26 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide 10.93 (-3)
7. Western Bulldogs 5.39 (+1)
8. Adelaide 5.22 (-2)
9. GWS 3.98 (+3)
10. Sydney 3.29
11. Richmond -0.03
12. Gold Coast -2.96 (+2)
13. Essendon -3.08 (-4)
14. St Kilda -5.45 (-1)
15. Fremantle 9.62
16. Hawthorn -13.94
17. North Melbourne -31.45
18. West Coast -48.72

1. Collingwood 18.80
2. Port Adelaide 17.41
3. Brisbane 15.95
4. Melbourne 15.03
5. Geelong 13.20 (+2)
6. Western Bulldogs 12.75 (-1)
7. Carlton 12.35 (+3)
8. Essendon 12.27 (-2)
9. GWS 11.84 (+3)
10. Richmond 11.60 (+1)
11. St Kilda 11.58 (-3)
12. Adelaide 11.26 (-3)
13. Sydney 10.46
14. Gold Coast 10.44
15. Fremantle 9.68
16. Hawthorn 7.04
17. North Melbourne 3.53
18. West Coast 1.78

Essendon v Bulldogs +8
Richmond +14 v Hawthorn
Carlton +75 v West Coast
Brisbane +9 v Geelong
Fremantle v Sydney +1
Port Adelaide v Collingwood +2
GWS +13 v Gold Coast
Melbourne +19 v Adelaide
St Kilda +26 v North Melbourne

 

[Hobbes]

Essendon v Bulldogs +8
Richmond +14 v Hawthorn
Carlton +75 v West Coast
Brisbane +9 v Geelong
Fremantle v Sydney +1
Port Adelaide v Collingwood +2
GWS +13 v Gold Coast
Melbourne +19 v Adelaide
St Kilda +26 v North Melbourne

9/9 (woohoo), 118/162

1. Collingwood 21.72
2. Brisbane 18.61
3. Geelong 15.35
4. Carlton 12.02
5. Melbourne 10.41
6. Port Adelaide 10.01
7. Western Bulldogs 8.65
8. Adelaide 6.89
9. GWS 6.67
10. Sydney 6.21
11. Richmond -1.39
12. Gold Coast -6.1
13. Essendon -6.8
14. St Kilda -7.61
15. Fremantlre -12.47
16. Hawthorn -12.62
17. North Melbourne -29.37
18. West Coast -47.85

No, I didn't forget to put in the movement on the chart. All eighteen teams are in the same position as last week, despite quite a lot of the ratings changing.

1. Collingwood 19.38
2. Port Adelaide 16.85
3. Brisbane 16.41
4. Melbourne 15.21
5. Western Bulldogs 13.28 (+1)
6. Geelong 12.80 (-1)
7. GWS 12.352 (+2)
8. Carlton 12.350 (-1)
9. Richmond 11.89 (+1)
10. St Kilda 11.73 (+1)
11. Essendon 11.63 (-3)
12. Sydney 11.13 (+1)
13. Adelaide 11.04 (-1)
14. Gold Coast 9.87
15. Fremantle 9.04
16. Hawthorn 6.78
17. North Melbourne 3.49
18. West Coast 1.75

Collingwood +10 v Carlton
Geelong +40 v Fremantle
Western Bulldogs +8 v GWS
Gold Coast v Brisbane +25
Essendon v Sydney +7
Adelaide v Port Adelaide +3
Hawthorn v St Kilda +5
Richmond v Melbourne+12
West Coast v North Melbourne +6

 

[Gavin Excell]

While a welcome return, I prefer a Return of the Mac

 

[Hobbes]

Collingwood +10 v Carlton
Geelong +40 v Fremantle
Western Bulldogs +8 v GWS
Gold Coast v Brisbane +25
Essendon v Sydney +7
Adelaide v Port Adelaide +3
Hawthorn v St Kilda +5
Richmond v Melbourne+12
West Coast v North Melbourne +6

3/9. Probably carnage for many tipsters - while some (Adelaide, GWS, Carlton) might have been tippable by someone with their finger on the pulse, others (Fremantle, Gold Coast) were not. 121/171

1. Collingwood 20.14
2. Carlton 15.07 (+2)
3. Melbourne 12.55 (+2)
4. Adelaide 12.34 (+4)
5. Brisbane 12.25 (-3)
6. Geelong 10.23 (-3)
7. GWS 9.16 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs .66 (-1)
9. Sydney 5.42 (+1)
10. Port Adelaide 5.34 (-4)
11. Gold Coast 0.83 (+1)
12. Richmond -3.62 (-1)
13. St Kilda -4.66 (+1)
14. Essendon -6.51 (-1)
15. Fremantle -7.69
16. Hawthorn -14.52
17. North Melbourne -30.39
18. West Coast -46.57

1. Collingwood 18.85
2. Port Adelaide 16.13
3. Melbourne 15.69 (+1)
4. Brisbane 15.29 (-1)
5. GWS 13.05 (+2)
6. Carlton 12.92 (+2)
7. Western Bulldogs 12.76 (-2)
8. St Kilda 12.41 (+2)
9. Adelaide 11.75 (+4)
10. Geelong 11.74 (-4)
11. Richmond 11.46 (-2)
12. Sydney 11.37
13. Essendon 11.21 (-2)
14. Gold Coast 10.83
15. Fremantle 10.25
16. Hawthorn 6.21
17. North Melbourne 2.81
18. West Coast 2.26

Western Bulldogs +11 v Richmond
Essendon +52 v West Coast
Adelaide +24 v Gold Coast
Hawthorn v Collingwood +35
Geelong +17 v Port Adelaide
GWS +4 v Sydney
North Melbourne v Melbourne +43
St Kilda v Carlton +20
Fremantle v Brisbane +8

As a novelty, I'm going to put a ladder together assuming that every favourite wins, and see how it plays out.

Collingwood 20
Port Adelaide 17
Brisbane 16
Melbourne 16
Carlton 14.5
GWS 13
Western Bulldogs 13
Geelong 12.5
Adelaide 12
Richmond 11.5
St Kilda 11
Essendon 11
Sydney 10.5
Gold Coast 10
Fremantle 9
Hawthorn 6
North Melbourne 2
West Coast 2

Collingwood d Melbourne
Port Adelaide d Brisbane
Carlton d Geelong
GWS d Western Bulldogs

Carlton d Melbourne
Brisbane d Western Bulldogs

Collingwood d Brisbane
Port Adelaide d Carlton

Collingwood d Port Adelaide

The numbers make it look like a probable Collingwood premiership, but I don't think that's quite right, even though the top 4 might be settled. Any team that makes the top 8 on a winning streak - perhaps Carlton, GWS, or even Sydney or Adelaide, could win the flag.

 

[Hobbes]

Western Bulldogs +11 v Richmond
Essendon +52 v West Coast
Adelaide +24 v Gold Coast
Hawthorn v Collingwood +35
Geelong +17 v Port Adelaide
GWS +4 v Sydney
North Melbourne v Melbourne +43
St Kilda v Carlton +20
Fremantle v Brisbane +8

7/9, 128/180

1. Carlton 14.44 (+1)
2. Collingwood 12.95 (-1)
3. Adelaide 11.42 (+1)
4. Brisbane 11.25 (+1)
5. Western Bulldogs 10.42 (+3)
6. Melbourne 10.21 (-3)
7. Geelong 8.55 (-1)
8. GWS 7.51 (-1)
9. Sydney 5.96
10. Port Adelaide 4.52
11. Gold Coast -0.4
12. St Kilda -4.26 (+1)
13. Richmond -7.72 (-1)
14. Fremantle -8.47 (+1)
15. Hawthorn -8.56 (+1)
16. Essendon -12.15 (-2)
17. North Melbourne -29.04
18. West Coast -42.4

1. Collingwood 17.87
2. Port Adelaide 15.84
3. Brisbane 15.76
4. Melbourne 15.63
5. Carlton 13.26 (+1)
6. Western Bulldogs 13.16 (+1)
7. GWS 12.54 (-2)
8. St Kilda 12.19
9. Geelong 12.07 (+1)
10. Adelaide 11.974 (-1)
11. Sydney 11.966 (+1)
12. Essendon 11.16 (+1)
13. Richmond 10.94 (-2)
14. Gold Coast 10.51
15. Fremantle 9.71
16. Hawthorn 7.24
17. North Melbourne 2.89
18. West Coast 2.29

Collingwood +4 v Geelong
North Melbourne v Essendon +17
Sydney +12 v Gold Coast
Brisbane +12 v Adelaide
Carlton +4 v Melbourne
West Coast v Fremantle +34
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs +19
St Kilda +3 v Richmond
Port Adelaide +9 v GWS

 

[Hobbes]

Collingwood +4 v Geelong
North Melbourne v Essendon +17
Sydney +12 v Gold Coast
Brisbane +12 v Adelaide
Carlton +4 v Melbourne
West Coast v Fremantle +34
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs +19
St Kilda +3 v Richmond
Port Adelaide +9 v GWS

8/9, 136/189

1. Carlton 16.61
2. Collingwood 15.66
3. Adelaide 13.34
4. Melbourne 12.48 (+2)
5. Brisbane 12.39
6. Geelong 11.14 (+1)
7. Western Bulldogs 10.08 (-2)
8. Port Adelaide 10.05 (+2)
9. Sydney 8.76
10. GWS 5.63 (-2)
11. St Kilda 1.08 (+1)
12. Gold Coast 0.52 (-1)
13. Fremantle -2.36 (+1)
14. Hawthorn -4.31 (+1)
15. Richmond -8.93 (-2)
16. Essendon -10.42
17. North Melbourne -25.93
18. West Coast -44.51

1. Collingwood 18.35
2. Port Adelaide 16.29
3. Brisbane 16.08
4. Melbourne 15.15
5. Carlton 13.77
6. St Kilda 12.73 (+2)
7. Western Bulldogs 12.44 (-1)
8. Sydney 12.36 (+3)
9. GWS 12.05 (-2)
10. Adelaide 11.615
11. Geelong 11.611 (-2)
12. Essendon 11.52
13. Richmond 10.36
14. Gold Coast 10.10
15. Fremantle 9.89
16. Hawthorn 7.93
17. North Melbourne 2.63
18. West Coast 2.1

Collingwood +9 v Brisbane
Richmond +17 v North Melbourne
Gold Coast v Carlton +10
GWS +24 v Essendon
St Kilda v Geelong +10
Adelaide +17 v Sydney
Western Bulldogs +67 v West Coast
Melbourne +17 v Hawthorn
Fremantle v Port Adelaide +1

Collingwood 17, Brisbane, Essendon
Brisbane 15, Collingwood, St Kilda
Port Adelaide, 15, Fremantle, Richmond
Melbourne 14, Hawthorn, Sydney
Carlton 12.5, Gold Coast, GWS
St Kilda, 12, Geelong, Brisbane
Sydney 11.5, Adelaide, Melbourne
Western Bulldogs 11, West Coast, Geelong
Essendon 11, GWS, Collingwood
GWS 11, Essendon, Carlton
Geelong 10.5, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Adelaide 10, Sydney, West Coast
Richmond 9, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide
Fremantle 9, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn
Gold Coast 9, Carlton, North Melbourne
Hawthorn 7, Melbourne, Fremantle
North Melbourne 2, Richmond, Gold Coast
West Coast 2, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide

Likely finish

Collingwood 18 or 19
Brisbane 16 or 17
Port Adelaide 16 or 17
Melbourne 15 or 16
Carlton 13.5 or 14.5
St Kilda 12 or 13
Sydney 11.5 or 12.5 or 13.5
Western Bulldogs 12 or 13
Essendon 11
GWS 12 or 13
Geelong 10.5 or 11.5 or 12.5
Adelaide 11 or 12
Richmond 10
Fremantle 9 or 10 or 11
Gold Coast 10
Hawthorn 7 or 8
North Melbourne 2
West Coast 2

There are some real key matches for the makeup of the 8:

Carlton v GWS
St Kilda v Geelong
Sydney v Adelaide
Sydney v Melbourne
Western Bulldogs v Geelong

Taking these as the only relevant results, my the odds for making the finals are:

Carlton: 100% 5th
St Kilda: 47%
Sydney: 66%. Two tough matches, but if they win one it would take freak results to keep them out
Bulldogs: 69%: Nearly certain if they win or Sydney beats GWS
Essendon: I'm considering them a write-off. Maybe I should do the calculations again with the GWS match.
GWS: 26%
Geelong: 30%. Essentially, if they win two games they make the finals. If they lose one, they don't.
Adelaide: 42%. They need to win both matches, but one is at home (admittedly against the in-form Sydney) and the other is a bankable win against West Coast. A strong percentage combined with the West Coast game should mean they won't miss out on that account. Over 60% to make the finals if they beat Sydney.

The most likely 5-8s:

Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide
Carlton, Bulldogs, Sydney, Adelaide
Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide, Bulldogs
Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda.

(These are all from result sets that have Carlton beating GWS, Geelong beating St Kilda, and Adelaide beating Sydney)