Autopsy Review v Swans

[The Enemy Within]

Losing webster and newnes hurt our half back run dramatically, it also made roberton play a different role compared to the 1st 6-7 weeks.

Koby and sincs played out of position due to dunstan.

Roo and paddy did not work well together. No chemistry. Look at me mav needs a kick up the bum.

Can we have some clarification on this statement it sounds a little trivial to me.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Look at me mav needs a kick up the bun.

EFA

 

[The Punter]

There was an interesting article a few days ago (posted in the media thread) which said that teams were scoring unusually accurately against us this year (relative to where they were having their shots from) and that was the case again on Saturday.

Sydney's "expected score" from where they had their shots from was 103 points, but they scored 118. On the other hand, our expected score from where we had our shots from was 83 points, but we scored only 68.

This is an interesting point. In 2015 goalkicking accuracy cost us three wins. It wasn't really a problem last year but has bobbed up again.

You can't just say one team should have kicked better - you have to compare scoring shots.

Round 1 v Melbourne: Melbourne 5 more scoring shots. Actual margin 30 point loss - Appropriate margin 20 point loss.
Round 2 v West Coast: St Kilda 6 more scoring shots. Actual margin 19 point loss - Appropriate margin 21 point win.
Round 3 v Brisbane: St Kilda 16 more scoring shots. Actual margin 31 point win - Appropriate margin 56 point win.
Round 4 v Collingwood: St Kilda 4 more scoring shots. Actual margin 14 point win - Appropriate margin 14 point win.
Round 5 v Geelong: Geelong 8 more scoring shots. Actual margin 38 point loss - Appropriate margin 28 point loss.
Round 6 v Hawthorn: St Kilda 20 more scoring shots. Actual margin 75 point win - Appropriate margin 70 point win.
Round 7 v GWS: St Kilda 3 more scoring shots. Actual margin 23 point win - Appropriate margin 13 point win.
Round 8 v Carlton: St Kilda 9 more scoring shots. Actual margin 19 point win - Appropriate margin 34 point win.
Round 9 v Sydney: Sydney 10 more scoring shots. Actual margin 50 point loss - Appropriate margin 35 point loss.

Over the course of the season we've had 35 more scoring shots than our opposition, but kicked 2 fewer goals. So our score difference is currently +25, butif both teams had simply kicked one goal for each behind, it would be +125.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I mean after they'd completely stifled any natural ability out of him yeah. He could sure find it in his first year though and he's the best winger in the VFL atm so I don't think that's really his fault.

Really?
He played 6 games. He once got 11 touches and 2 goals. He once got 13 touches and two goals. Then he had 2 games 8 and 7 touches, and didn't score in either.

Rewrite history all you like, but he was no ball magnet.
I agree , he's great in the VFL.

 

[VDS66]

EFA

I'm worried we have too many man buns on the list TBH. Hence my reluctance to recruit Fyfe.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Koby and sincs played out of position due to dunstan.

Can we have some clarification on this statement it sounds a little trivial to me.

At the risk of putting words in crasha's mouth, here's what I think we're both saying here. Koby is a ball-winner, first and foremost - he can drift forward, and do lots of other handy things part-time, but his bread and butter is getting into the guts and getting the ball out. Similarly, while Sincs is more an outside disposer into the forward 50, he is worth quite a few clearances when given the chance. Neither got to do that on the weekend, because Lucky got to be in there instead.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

This is an interesting point. In 2015 goalkicking accuracy cost us three wins. It wasn't really a problem last year but has bobbed up again.

You can't just say one team should have kicked better - you have to compare scoring shots.

Round 1 v Melbourne: Melbourne 5 more scoring shots. Actual margin 30 point loss - Appropriate margin 20 point loss.
Round 2 v West Coast: St Kilda 6 more scoring shots. Actual margin 19 point loss - Appropriate margin 21 point win.
Round 3 v Brisbane: St Kilda 16 more scoring shots. Actual margin 31 point win - Appropriate margin 56 point win.
Round 4 v Collingwood: St Kilda 4 more scoring shots. Actual margin 14 point win - Appropriate margin 14 point win.
Round 5 v Geelong: Geelong 8 more scoring shots. Actual margin 38 point loss - Appropriate margin 28 point loss.
Round 6 v Hawthorn: St Kilda 20 more scoring shots. Actual margin 75 point win - Appropriate margin 70 point win.
Round 7 v GWS: St Kilda 3 more scoring shots. Actual margin 23 point win - Appropriate margin 13 point win.
Round 8 v Carlton: St Kilda 9 more scoring shots. Actual margin 19 point win - Appropriate margin 34 point win.
Round 9 v Sydney: Sydney 10 more scoring shots. Actual margin 50 point loss - Appropriate margin 35 point loss.

Over the course of the season we've had 35 more scoring shots than our opposition, but kicked 2 fewer goals. So our score difference is currently +25, butif both teams had simply kicked one goal for each behind, it would be +125.

It depends how the data is gathered.
We all see the shots at goal, with the 2 in the middle , and a 1 either side. Statistically it should be a goal. If it goes out on the full its not even a scoring shot but it still should have been a goal.
Not all scoring shots are equal. Aussierules said that his data took the location from where the shots were taken into consideration.

 

[Saintbloke]

I'm worried we have too many man buns on the list TBH. Hence my reluctance to recruit Fyfe.

This needs to be looked into

 

[crasha301]

At the risk of putting words in crasha's mouth, here's what I think we're both saying here. Koby is a ball-winner, first and foremost - he can drift forward, and do lots of other handy things part-time, but his bread and butter is getting into the guts and getting the ball out. Similarly, while Sincs is more an outside disposer into the forward 50, he is worth quite a few clearances when given the chance. Neither got to do that on the weekend, because Lucky got to be in there instead.

Pretty much this.

 

[plugger66]

I'm worried we have too many man buns on the list TBH. Hence my reluctance to recruit Fyfe.

But you happy for Jane to follow us. Hypocrite.

 

[The Enemy Within]

At the risk of putting words in crasha's mouth, here's what I think we're both saying here. Koby is a ball-winner, first and foremost - he can drift forward, and do lots of other handy things part-time, but his bread and butter is getting into the guts and getting the ball out. Similarly, while Sincs is more an outside disposer into the forward 50, he is worth quite a few clearances when given the chance. Neither got to do that on the weekend, because Lucky got to be in there instead.

Hang on we won the clearances 37-28, centre 13-12 stoppages 24-16 we basically won every stat except inside 50 so that to me indicates a lack of penetration from our back half & a lack of forwards leading when we are starting to present going forward having Dunstan in there had no bearing on the result at all.

Marks inside 50 was 6 that's were our issue was not clearances, playing guy's in different positions is nothing new it has been happening since the first football was kicked in anger that is a poor excuse used by players or supporters when they want to pull out the blame the coach excuse ask any suburban coach each Saturday some times you just have to play were your assigned .

 

[borderbarry]

Playing Paddy at Centre Half Forward is not helping. He is not in the forward 50, so his marks are outside the forward 50. If Roos knees are too sore for to play CHF or Wing, he should be rested. Playing him at FF is not the best for the team.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

I'm worried we have too many man buns on the list TBH. Hence my reluctance to recruit Fyfe.

And Fyfe and his bun will use up a lot of our dough

 

[cooperrules]

I reckon this was our most solid melt without getting super melty. Well done to all.

 

[StCicatriz]

Hang on we won the clearances 37-28, centre 13-12 stoppages 24-16 we basically won every stat except inside 50 so that to me indicates a lack of penetration from our back half & a lack of forwards leading when we are starting to present going forward having Dunstan in there had no bearing on the result at all.

Marks inside 50 was 6 that's were our issue was not clearances, playing guy's in different positions is nothing new it has been happening since the first football was kicked in anger that is a poor excuse used by players or supporters when they want to pull out the blame the coach excuse ask any suburban coach each Saturday some times you just have to play were your assigned .

I think the issue is you are playing blokes out of position to accommodate dunstan whilst dunstan was ineffectual in his role as an inside mid. It upset the balance.

Koby is an inside mid who can contribute on the outside. Dunstan is an inside mid who does not contribute on the outside as he can't get to enough contests or run and spread.

I think the two big issues were run and spread specifically defensively along with ball use especially out of the half back line. It was basically turn over city with no pressure from our fwds and mids. Was easy work for Sydney through the corridor.

 

[stfan]

.

Marks inside 50 was 6 that's were our issue was not clearances, .

at the ball ups.

I would disagree. Yes we won clearances, but did little with them. Lots of poor ball use. And not just .

Winning the ball helps little if all you do is give it to your opponent.

 

[VDS66]

And Fyfe and his bun will use up a lot of our dough

That was putrid, old boy...

 

[Persevering Saint]

Hang on we won the clearances 37-28, centre 13-12 stoppages 24-16 we basically won every stat except inside 50 so that to me indicates a lack of penetration from our back half & a lack of forwards leading when we are starting to present going forward having Dunstan in there had no bearing on the result at all.

Marks inside 50 was 6 that's were our issue was not clearances, playing guy's in different positions is nothing new it has been happening since the first football was kicked in anger that is a poor excuse used by players or supporters when they want to pull out the blame the coach excuse ask any suburban coach each Saturday some times you just have to play were your assigned .

No it means him helping win all those clearances became pointless, because we had no outside runners to use it properly.

I'm a big fan of winning clearance, don't get me wrong, but it's only part of the puzzle, and we lacked some other necessary parts on Saturday. We tried to drive some pieces into roles they don't fit.

 

[gringo2011]

I reckon this was our most solid melt without getting super melty. Well done to all.

That's because I was so awestruck by our shitness that I did't have a good melt in me. That was one of my less melodramatic episodes and I think it seems to have been mutual with some other major melters staying pretty calm.

 

[Crusty Undies]

Really?
He played 6 games. He once got 11 touches and 2 goals. He once got 13 touches and two goals. Then he had 2 games 8 and 7 touches, and didn't score in either.

Rewrite history all you like, but he was no ball magnet.
I agree , he's great in the VFL.

It's good to see you ignored the bit where I said "in his first year". I can explain this for you though so don't worry. Typically players don't play as well in their first year as in their fifth or really any other year, so we typically allow them time. And you know who else is a good VFL player atm? Not a great one mind you, just a good one. Paddy McCartin. But we'll still give him all the time he needs cos he shows signs, just as Templeton did. Call him slow and bash his game all you like but he would've been a good winger for us, better than McKenzie at any rate.

 

[sammm]

Q4: ah **** it.

yes, don't bother tell us what you think of the 4th quarter. i don't want to know!!!!!!

 

[StandByyourMan]

Paddy did absolutely nothing.

respectfully disagree. He was very good in patches and his running patterns were elite. But overall time to go back to the drawing board. Gee Seb Ross just keeps contributing though.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It's good to see you ignored the bit where I said "in his first year". I can explain this for you though so don't worry. Typically players don't play as well in their first year as in their fifth or really any other year, so we typically allow them time. And you know who else is a good VFL player atm? Not a great one mind you, just a good one. Paddy McCartin. But we'll still give him all the time he needs cos he shows signs, just as Templeton did. Call him slow and bash his game all you like but he would've been a good winger for us, better than McKenzie at any rate.

Those stats came from his first year when you said he got "plenty of it". I'm saying he didn't.
Eli got three seasons to prove himself from a rookie list position, which meant he was a long shot from the beginning.
Paddy is in his third season now and people have concerns about him. He'll get longer than Eli though.

. Its generally recognised that tall forwards take longer to develop than mids.
. Tall forwards are harder to come by than mids.

If Paddy was to be de-listed at the end of the year another club will pick him up in some capacity. No doubt whatsoever.

I get that you like Eli, but he simply didn't perform over the last two seasons.
McKenzie could easily go at the end of his third season too. You can't just collect these fringe players.
I really hope that someone decides to rookie list Eli at the end of this season and he gets another crack at it but there were limited choices at the end of last year.

For an independent observation, SEN -Inside Footy rate all the AFL players games.
Over 3 years Eli never rated higher than a 5 in any of his games. He rated 5 twice in his first year, once in his second year.
McKenzie rated a 6 in one of his 2015 games, and a 6 and two 5s in 2015, and a 4 for his recent effort against Sydney. If he can't build from last year i'd suggest he's under the pump.

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/120746/Daniel-MCKENZIE
http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/117654/Eli-TEMPLETON

 

[burningdwarf]

It's good to see you ignored the bit where I said "in his first year". I can explain this for you though so don't worry. Typically players don't play as well in their first year as in their fifth or really any other year, so we typically allow them time. And you know who else is a good VFL player atm? Not a great one mind you, just a good one. Paddy McCartin. But we'll still give him all the time he needs cos he shows signs, just as Templeton did. Call him slow and bash his game all you like but he would've been a good winger for us, better than McKenzie at any rate.

You said he sure could find it in his first year.

How is getting 13 touches showing he sure could find it?

The arm break ruined his chances of making it IMO.

You seem to dislike McKenzie a bit. At least he can break the 15 disposal barrier.

 

[hayes]

Those stats came from his first year when you said he got "plenty of it". I'm saying he didn't.
Eli got three seasons to prove himself from a rookie list position, which meant he was a long shot from the beginning.
Paddy is in his third season now and people have concerns about him. He'll get longer than Eli though.

. Its generally recognised that tall forwards take longer to develop than mids.
. Tall forwards are harder to come by than mids.

If Paddy was to be de-listed at the end of the year another club will pick him up in some capacity. No doubt whatsoever.

I get that you like Eli, but he simply didn't perform over the last two seasons.
McKenzie could easily go at the end of his third season too. You can't just collect these fringe players.
I really hope that someone decides to rookie list Eli at the end of this season and he gets another crack at it but there were limited choices at the end of last year.

For an independent observation, SEN -Inside Footy rate all the AFL players games.
Over 3 years Eli never rated higher than a 5 in any of his games. He rated 5 twice in his first year, once in his second year.
McKenzie rated a 6 in one of his 2015 games, and a 6 and two 5s in 2015, and a 4 for his recent effort against Sydney. If he can't build from last year i'd suggest he's under the pump.

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/120746/Daniel-MCKENZIE
http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/117654/Eli-TEMPLETON

I think McKenzie is going to build. 20 touches in his first game back and I think he'll go on with it.

Eli was a 4 game wonder, that's it.