Prediction Round 12 Changes vs Brisbane

[anchor man]

For the past four weeks Mason has been fit, available and serviceable. Darcy has been ... in rehab. That's where we stand - Cox will continue to be useful to us.

I agree,Cox is there for the resone he was picked up.
But not sure Darcy is in rehab, he has gone beyond that I think. He is in the rebuild satge preparing to play again.In my opinion he will be ready for playing at AFL level the week after the bye.It wouldn't surprise me to see him pull on the Teal for Peel this week.
And remember that some posted here a couple of weeks ago that Darcy was pantsing Cox at training exercises.
It is a discussion that will go on for some time I think.

 

[mattis117]

Stats stats and more stats just run into the David Kings way of talking about football.
Talk football, as we see the game, not as someone writes on a bit of paper.
I have no problem with Mason Cox and what he gives, I just don't see him as being a better footballer and ruckman as Sean Darcy.Darcy is far more football smart than Cox.
And Matis, I am in your corner.

I'm always more of advocate from forming opinion from watching the game rather than using stats. Just using stats in this instance to make a point.

Both my own opinion from watching the two blokes play and the stats are saying the exact same thing - Darcy is better and it's not even close. Please may Darcy find fitness and return to this team .

 

[anchor man]

I'm always more of advocate from forming opinion from watching the game rather than using stats. Just using stats in this instance to make a point.

Both my own opinion from watching the two blokes play and the stats are saying the exact same thing - Darcy is better and it's not even close. Please may Darcy find fitness and return to this team .

I totally agree with you.
Stats are for fantasy football and super coach enthusiasts, not to understand the game being played.It means points and maybe money for those players.
I always said that if King didn't spout stats all day he would be unemployable.

 

[mattis117]

What metric are you using to measure Jackson’s output alongside Darcy vs alongside Cox - there is a pretty clear increase in terms of overall impact on the game when Cox played over Darcy. Fantasy points, coaches votes, player rating, pressure acts - they’re all averaging higher when Jackson has been rucking alongside Cox.

I am making my selection not on a Darcy vs Cox basis, but on the basis that I want Luke Jackson at his absolute best, as he is our most damaging player.

Pretty clear? That is highly questionable. There are so many variables to this, individual form, location, rest, weather etc. It's drawing a long bow to claim everyone else is playing better around Cox than Darcy. You make data based claims without taking the effort to back it up with real evidence. I watch supercoach scores as closely as you do and I can't say I've ever noticed any team wide trends linked to either player.

You make a claim above: There is a pretty clear increase in terms of overall impacts on the game when Cox is played over Darcy, Fantasy points, players rating, pressure acts they are all higher. Ok, where is the data? And what is your scope. Are you referring to Jackson, or Cox and Jackson, or the team as a whole. If you're referring to the team as a whole, how are team based pressure metrics for individual players impacted because the team played a different ruck?

The focus has to be on the key metrics that matter. That is going to be hit outs to advantage, pressure acts, and ball use.

Like fair enough to have strong opinions but cmon. There is zero data presented supporting this feeling you have that Cox is better.

I don't even understand the tribal approach to this. You have to be 'right'. There is no right. Both are fine, really. If both are equal on output, then as a long-term stalwart of this club, Sean Darcy deserves to be in the squad for all the work he has done with us over the years. He is one of the longest serving players on the list and a Doig Medal winner. We should be celebrating him returning to the squad if he is able to meaningfully contribute.

 

[CaseySibosadoHOF]

Very interesting. So, from this metric could we deduce that having Mason Cox in the team instead of Darcy actually puts more load on Jackson?

It absolutely does. And that's not a bug to me, that's a feature.

Darcy and Cox play roughly similar TOGs when you ignore the respective outliers, around 50% (Darcy injured game vs Collingwood, Cox fwd game vs Carlton). But play wildly different positions. Darcy's TOG basically perfectly correlates with his ruck contest %. He's there to play ruck or bench, which isn't a massive revelation. Cox's TOG, taking away that Carlton game, is about a 65-35 ruck-fwd split. It shifts even more fwd when you exclude garbage time, where he rucks to protect Jackson.

In turn, Jackson spends more time playing ruck. With Darcy, it's been about 55-45 when you exclude the Collingwood outlier. That probs becomes about 50-50 when Darcy isn't playing cooked. With Cox, it's been around 70-30. To me, the Cox partnership has been the happy medium btwn maximising Jackson's impact and protecting Jackson.

Darcy is indisputably the better ruck, and I don't think anyone is seriously arguing otherwise. But Mason Cox is indisputably the better aerial presence, even with the fact he drops so many, and I don't think anyone is seriously arguing otherwise. Especially with the way we move the ball, just taking those hits and bringing the ball to ground is massive. Let alone when he clunks them.

If Jackson is a better ruck than both (to me he is) and Jackson can sustain his impact with about 70% ruck (to me he can, especially if we give him garbage time breaks), is the difference in aerial presence more valuable than the difference in ruck ability? To me, until Darcy can sustainably throw himself in packs and be an aerial presence, it is.

View attachment Rd 11 Vs Euro-Yroke - Smurf Review rFremantleFC (1) (1).mp4

 

[Big Animal]

I just think it's good that when Darcy is injured, which is often, we now have someone who can step in and we don't really miss a beat, rather than last year's restructuring and risking Treacy.

 

[BStaff17]

I just think it's good that when Darcy is injured, which is often, we now have someone who can step in and we don't really miss a beat, rather than last year's restructuring and risking Treacy.

If i see Treacy in a ruck contest again i may need a new TV.

 

[Cesoir]

Maybe you should post some of your own thoughts rather then riding herd on every other campaigner

Disappointing, but at least I got one reaction.

Thanks

 

[freo84]

Disappointing, but at least I got one reaction.

Thanks

I was saying boourns.

 

[Cesoir]

I was saying boourns.

Je ne comprende pas.

 

[freo84]

Je ne comprende pas.

I was cheering for you.

 

[Troy Cooked It]

Jee a lot of discussion on a change we know won’t be coming for the lions

 

[Cesoir]

I was cheering for you.

Woohoo, thanks mate

 

[oldgoat]

I actually find the phrase 'Dockery' a bit annoying as well. Sort implies we're clownish figures who deserve bad luck. Victim mentality. I also find it has tones of genuine magical thinking (i.e. our bad luck is real) which I don't like.

Complaining about it is pointless however.

Absolutely pointless...
The "dockery" meme is just bone lazy!
Superstition is substituted for ordinary objective observation and analysis.
Not to say all who use it are lazy but many are seduced and comforted by it.
It will probably increase until we snatch our first cup.
Then it will lay dormant while we rack up the threepeat, until there is a stumble.
It will never truly die until the pre premiership fans have passed.
May we of that generation then rest in peace.
Anyway...
YOKAI!

 

[David Bubb]

 

[rgauci]

Out: Scherri, Macdonald
In: Young, Pearce

 

[FreoRicci]

Yeah and there was an article in the West which basically says the same thing.
Darcy has to be fit, which should include playing some games at WAFL to build and demonstrate it.

There's no world he should be coming in unless he's demonstrated that, or there has been injuries.

After the bye is when he should come in. 3 weeks of training should get him in top nick

 

[PavLike]

Maybe the term "Dockery" should be replaced by "Wanchory"

Seems like the club turned the corner regarding those performances when we ditched the anchor?

I couldn't care less either way - we'll never be taken seriously until we win a flag.

 

[Purpletown]

Cam Rayner fined for staging. Simulation and flopping are Brisbane specialities. Hopefully the umps keep them honest?

 

[fatty sings]

Cam Rayner fined for staging. Simulation and flopping are Brisbane specialities. Hopefully the umps keep them honest?

But the goal still counts. Dumb

 

[fatty sings]

My god this argument if Dockery and it's meaning is offensive to all my senses. Everyone please stfu about it.

Anyway, Ryan Daniels on HBG today talking about Treacys longevity with his combative nature. He's concerned that recklessly throwing your body about, chasing full tilt and cannoning into dudes may cause an eventual injury. I totally agree. Get vossy to do the heavy lifting and Josh to lead up and kick goals. I want him fit for another 10 years!

 

[Cobbler]

Brisbane will come out breathing fire. They always turn it up vs the teams around the top 4. No exception.

Just have to be fast and clean.

Zorko coming back really is an issue. Never really been able to stop him from half back

Brisbane are 0-3 against teams in top 6. They ain’t breathing shite.
Them being favourites is basing it on previous years and also basing us on previous years.
2 completely different teams this year.

The only reason anyone would think Brisbane is due is because of the gamblers fallacy. They think ‘we’re due to drop one or Brisbane are due’

Freo by 27

 

[Boomer93]

My god this argument if Dockery and it's meaning is offensive to all my senses. Everyone please stfu about it.

Anyway, Ryan Daniels on HBG today talking about Treacys longevity with his combative nature. He's concerned that recklessly throwing your body about, chasing full tilt and cannoning into dudes may cause an eventual injury. I totally agree. Get vossy to do the heavy lifting and Josh to lead up and kick goals. I want him fit for another 10 years!

Couldnt disagree more. Treacy sets the standard, how can anyonr have an excuse not to chase like an animal when their star key forward is doing it. Treacy should be the next captain of fremantle because of it imo.

 

[PavLike]

My god this argument if Dockery and it's meaning is offensive to all my senses. Everyone please stfu about it.

Anyway, Ryan Daniels on HBG today talking about Treacys longevity with his combative nature. He's concerned that recklessly throwing your body about, chasing full tilt and cannoning into dudes may cause an eventual injury. I totally agree. Get vossy to do the heavy lifting and Josh to lead up and kick goals. I want him fit for another 10 years!

I dare say that as Treacy ages - he'll change his style. Vossy doesn't have the pace or skill set that Josh has. I also trust that Josh has the smarts that he's not going to be wreckless with his body - if it hurts he'll play smart and stop crashing packs. I can't remember the player but he said there's a fine line between brave and stupid.

 

[PavLike]

and now with Vossy taking on the floating defender and doing jobs on them - Amiss kicking goals - leave as is!