dlanod
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Date – Sunday, July 17
Time – 4:40 pm AEST
Venue – The Gabba
Weather - 20° Shower or two
Preview by dlanod
Brisbane Lions Vs GWS Giants – Round 17, 2016
It's hard to get the motivation up to write an in-depth analysis of matchups, etc, when we all know what's transpired this year.
We're basically seeing first hand what transpires when a team has a perfect storm of issues:
- we have horrific drafting, year after year, for a decade or more, then
- when we're previously at our worst we get bumped back in the draft order because of expansion clubs, then
- we actually had some success picking talented players, but they leave, and
- our best players seem to consistently miss time due to injuries.
That's before we even get into the off-field stuff!
We're being forced to address our gap in developed talent by playing a combination of players who other teams were willing to let go for various reasons and players who are barely out of high school. At this point my only hope is that the club and the AFL have the balls to stay the course of drafting in talented players and supporting the club financially to build the off-field structures to retain them. The promise is there with our younger players but it's going to be two to three years before they exhibit any kind of consistency across a season.
So on that note, it brings me to this week's opponents - the GWS Giants.
We all know how they and the Gold Coast were set up to avoid the trials and tribulations of the Bears and the Dockers. I alluded to the impact on us earlier - copious numbers of early picks have worked their way through the Giants and the Suns, and they've kept the best ones (in general) and traded the others out for more picks or players like Shaw. They've undoubtedly kept more players than expected, and a large part of that is generally attributed to our very own Lamberts, now returned. But they're most relevant in how they've moved up the ladder last year and this, providing a potential blueprint for our future. We have a lot lower margin for error as we won't be able to blow top ten picks on players like Boyd, O'Rourke, Plowman, Sumner and more, but it's conceivable.
This year, however, will not be the year.
The bad news? Even though GWS has slowed down after their great post-Round 1 form with recent losses to Geelong and Adelaide, messy wins over Essendon and Carlton and then the boilover against Collingwood last week, you have to figure they're going to be too good for us. Even though Carlton put in a fair effort and Essendon better still, both lost fairly comfortably in the end.
GWS's strengths are their running ability, their defensive intercept marking and Callum Ward's inside work. None of these seem to play to our strengths - our team isn't known for their gut running and are known for lacking in defensive running, our forward entries are haphazard and our inside work is improving but IMO only to average (which speaks volumes for how awful it was previously).
The teams that have beaten or scared GWS have had some commonalities - a willingness at the hard ball to counter Ward getting first hands on it, good defensive forward work, and sheer physical pressure. Preventing Ward getting first hands to the ball and defensive forwards preventing Shaw, Wilson and Williams running the ball out of defence both forcing GWS into passing the ball through more hands in the middle. The tackling pressure then results in turnovers and because GWS tends to run forward of the play, assuming that their disposal efficiency will see them through, they can then be exposed on the counterattack.
More bad news? As mentioned, our hard ball work is sporadic, our defensive forward work is severely limited because of how tall we tend to play up there, and our tackling sometimes feels like it could be busted by an old dear on a mobility scooter. That doesn't bode well.
Time for some good news? Well, it could easily be a shoot-out. GWS's defence has been decimated by injury with all of Davis, Corr, Marchbank, Mohr, Buntine, Haynes, Wilson and Williams missing time at different points. Patton has been sighted down back as a result, and last week Adam Tomlinson showed how not to match up on Cloke. You can guarantee Patfull will be down back but GWS's zone defence plays to his weaknesses (closing speed, crunching the marker) than his strengths (sticking to the man, third man up). If we can get clear forward 50 entries Schache and Hipwood can continue to show how promising they both are.
Down the other end Cameron only needs a handful of opportunities to kick a bag, Patton has slowly been working his way back into form, and Lobb is a freak but to be honest we actually match up surprising well on them - McStay can match Cameron's athleticism if not his focus, Merrett could do a fair effort on Patton if he stays closer to goal, and Andrews v Lobb would be a battle to behold. The problem is that a lot of GWS's goals come through Stevie J (I'd put Gardiner on him and watch the melt) or midfielders pushing forward (Scully, Whitfield, Shiel and others) - our massively and repeatedly exposed weakness. So worst case it could be the Fremantle game all over again.
The ruck battle will probably be a bit of a wash - Mumford has lost his jump and Martin has never been a great tap. Coniglio is likely to go to Rich as a Robinson-style defensive mid but with better disposal, Ward and Rocky are kind of similar and may run head to head, which leaves Shiel is probably the best candidate for Robinson. However with Beams out and Hanley hindered the second tier of GWS mids leave our's behind - Kelly is having a breakout year, Scully too although much later, and Whitfield has been solid. We have Zorko but after that we go straight into journeymen and rookies, which brings us back in full circle to the first part of this preview!
So I guess you all get the gist...
TL;DR:
Lions by 24.
Time – 4:40 pm AEST
Venue – The Gabba
Weather - 20° Shower or two
Preview by dlanod
Brisbane Lions Vs GWS Giants – Round 17, 2016
It's hard to get the motivation up to write an in-depth analysis of matchups, etc, when we all know what's transpired this year.
We're basically seeing first hand what transpires when a team has a perfect storm of issues:
- we have horrific drafting, year after year, for a decade or more, then
- when we're previously at our worst we get bumped back in the draft order because of expansion clubs, then
- we actually had some success picking talented players, but they leave, and
- our best players seem to consistently miss time due to injuries.
That's before we even get into the off-field stuff!
We're being forced to address our gap in developed talent by playing a combination of players who other teams were willing to let go for various reasons and players who are barely out of high school. At this point my only hope is that the club and the AFL have the balls to stay the course of drafting in talented players and supporting the club financially to build the off-field structures to retain them. The promise is there with our younger players but it's going to be two to three years before they exhibit any kind of consistency across a season.
So on that note, it brings me to this week's opponents - the GWS Giants.
We all know how they and the Gold Coast were set up to avoid the trials and tribulations of the Bears and the Dockers. I alluded to the impact on us earlier - copious numbers of early picks have worked their way through the Giants and the Suns, and they've kept the best ones (in general) and traded the others out for more picks or players like Shaw. They've undoubtedly kept more players than expected, and a large part of that is generally attributed to our very own Lamberts, now returned. But they're most relevant in how they've moved up the ladder last year and this, providing a potential blueprint for our future. We have a lot lower margin for error as we won't be able to blow top ten picks on players like Boyd, O'Rourke, Plowman, Sumner and more, but it's conceivable.
This year, however, will not be the year.
The bad news? Even though GWS has slowed down after their great post-Round 1 form with recent losses to Geelong and Adelaide, messy wins over Essendon and Carlton and then the boilover against Collingwood last week, you have to figure they're going to be too good for us. Even though Carlton put in a fair effort and Essendon better still, both lost fairly comfortably in the end.
GWS's strengths are their running ability, their defensive intercept marking and Callum Ward's inside work. None of these seem to play to our strengths - our team isn't known for their gut running and are known for lacking in defensive running, our forward entries are haphazard and our inside work is improving but IMO only to average (which speaks volumes for how awful it was previously).
The teams that have beaten or scared GWS have had some commonalities - a willingness at the hard ball to counter Ward getting first hands on it, good defensive forward work, and sheer physical pressure. Preventing Ward getting first hands to the ball and defensive forwards preventing Shaw, Wilson and Williams running the ball out of defence both forcing GWS into passing the ball through more hands in the middle. The tackling pressure then results in turnovers and because GWS tends to run forward of the play, assuming that their disposal efficiency will see them through, they can then be exposed on the counterattack.
More bad news? As mentioned, our hard ball work is sporadic, our defensive forward work is severely limited because of how tall we tend to play up there, and our tackling sometimes feels like it could be busted by an old dear on a mobility scooter. That doesn't bode well.
Time for some good news? Well, it could easily be a shoot-out. GWS's defence has been decimated by injury with all of Davis, Corr, Marchbank, Mohr, Buntine, Haynes, Wilson and Williams missing time at different points. Patton has been sighted down back as a result, and last week Adam Tomlinson showed how not to match up on Cloke. You can guarantee Patfull will be down back but GWS's zone defence plays to his weaknesses (closing speed, crunching the marker) than his strengths (sticking to the man, third man up). If we can get clear forward 50 entries Schache and Hipwood can continue to show how promising they both are.
Down the other end Cameron only needs a handful of opportunities to kick a bag, Patton has slowly been working his way back into form, and Lobb is a freak but to be honest we actually match up surprising well on them - McStay can match Cameron's athleticism if not his focus, Merrett could do a fair effort on Patton if he stays closer to goal, and Andrews v Lobb would be a battle to behold. The problem is that a lot of GWS's goals come through Stevie J (I'd put Gardiner on him and watch the melt) or midfielders pushing forward (Scully, Whitfield, Shiel and others) - our massively and repeatedly exposed weakness. So worst case it could be the Fremantle game all over again.
The ruck battle will probably be a bit of a wash - Mumford has lost his jump and Martin has never been a great tap. Coniglio is likely to go to Rich as a Robinson-style defensive mid but with better disposal, Ward and Rocky are kind of similar and may run head to head, which leaves Shiel is probably the best candidate for Robinson. However with Beams out and Hanley hindered the second tier of GWS mids leave our's behind - Kelly is having a breakout year, Scully too although much later, and Whitfield has been solid. We have Zorko but after that we go straight into journeymen and rookies, which brings us back in full circle to the first part of this preview!
So I guess you all get the gist...
TL;DR:
Lions by 24.
