Prediction Round 3, 2025: Changes vs Fremantle

[Kegs15]

Enjoying the Bo Allen love and think he'll definitely get his chance but with a few changes likely incoming anyway and no obvious targets to drop from the backline I'd be happy letting him build in the WAFL.

Sounds like Gross knocked the door down more with his performance so want to reward that, and still think we're a mid or two short in rotations.

Gross for Long - think going forward we run with only two of Owies, Long and Cripps and while I love Long and think he takes Cripps' spot eventually it has to be him on form. Gross can play forward too but should be more impactful in the middle.

Graham for Petrucelle - just a balance thing, not that Petch was necessarily bad at all. Probably lump Petch into that group of HFFs previously mentioned where you don't want to be playing too many.

JWilliams for AReid - have enjoyed seeing Archer get a taste but by virtue of age he's probably not physically ready. Still happy to see him get games and rotate with JWill on form but happy for him to build in the WAFL and have a rest in general. Am also curious to see how Jack's fitness holds up given reports of his preseason - if he isn't running out the game how we need him to then Archer can come back in in the following weeks.

Wouldn't be tempted to go any taller - Waterman would come in for a small when he's available but for now I think going smaller offers us more than playing two of AReid, JWilliams or even Shanahan - think we'd just end up with a tall getting lost and killed on the rebound.

Liked what we did with Baker having bursts in the middle and Duggan playing his regular role down back. I'd be rotating him in for spells in there but keeping him fresh generally - let him burst in at the start/end of quarters or whenever we need a spark. If Duggan's in there I want him tagging - think he's a bit too general and aimless when he's on-ball atm, he'd be a pick to run with Serong/Brayshaw.

I'd be using the extra mid rotations in Graham and Gross to give Harley and Kelly some time in the forward line. Let Harley rest deepest forward instead of Ryan, and at those times get Ryan up the ground damaging across the high end of our forward half. When Kelly's fwd, let Ryan threaten/rest deep and let Kelly patrol that higher aggressive area. When Graham's forward, get him scragging one of Clark or Luke Ryan, mess up their rebound. And would be timing him being in the middle only when Duggan isn't also in there - then he can be the one to scrag Serong/Brayshaw.

Hall to get full midfield time, back him in and let it be his spot to lose rather than feel like he's in a revolving door. Brockman to run on the wing to get him involved when need be, with Hewett, Kelly, Duggan also covering there.

Offensive Mids: Kelly, Reid, Hewett (1-2 in there at a time)
Clearance/grunt mids: Hall, Baker, Gross (1-2 at a time)
Defensive/taggers: Graham, Duggan (0-1 at a time, mostly Graham)

Think that's a good balance that still gives us adequate numbers of fwds/backs and is more in line with how the comp is going/the gameplan, having more rotations through there will let them go harder in bursts but get more rests than we've been affording them.

FB: Maric (back), Edwards (back), Hough (back)
HB: Cole (back), McGovern (back), Ginbey (back)
C: Dewar (wing), Reid (mid/fwd), Kelly (mid/fwd)
HF: Owies (fwd), JWilliams (fwd/ruck), Graham (fwd/mid)
FF: Ryan (fwd), Allen (fwd), Brockman (fwd/wing)

R: BWilliams (ruck/rest), Hall (mid), Baker (mid/back)

I: Gross (mid/fwd), Duggan (back/mid), Hewett (mid/fwd), Cripps (fwd)

Sub: Hunt - I actually liked his game and found it hard to have him here as he's a genuine winger, suspect he'll likely start. Just ideally want to be getting as much mid time into Gross, Hall and Hewett in particular while reducing the mid load on Reid and Kelly.

 

[TY24]

Brockmans papers are probably stamped at the end of the year

 

[Cuzz09]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Hall is like a Priddis type yeah?

Just in and under mostly contested. Yes scrappy and not pretty by foot but hungry and fierce and hunting the ball.

If he can get anything like Priddis numbers then we'll be happy.

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[wce4premiership]

Hall has a bit more pace than a Priddis type, his goal in the WAFL last year where he wheels around on the 50m arc and slots it near the wing is pretty good.

If he got Priddis numbers we'd be laughing. We don't have anyone that gets anywhere near 30 touches a game consistently.

 

[Cuzz09]

HJ a Chance to come back??

A bit more run and dash

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[Astro7]

Am feeling bullish about this derby after the Lion's game and signs of life.
I'd like to see Graham's grunt back, with Waterman and Bailey (in a perfect world) and Hall retain his spot (earned it).
Looking forward to seeing what Allan and Gross can offer when they come in.
Harley and Hewett might step up for this one.

 

[Cuzz09]

I'm optimistic about the derby but also wary we have shown small signs before crashing again, which will happen throughout development, but yesterday's efforts need to be the minimum.

Hopefully it's a beauty and we take our chances!

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[Bleedblueandgold]

Double teamed by one of the top couple of KPDs in the comp and is direct opponent as the only tall target in the fwd line, fair to say he didnt have much of a chance.
Add Waterman to that side today to distract one of those KPDs and Allen gets a few 1v1s, and subsequently looks a lot better

Even when he wasn't kicking a lot of goals, that was JD's job for years and yet people couldn't wait to get rid of him.
But good on him for moving to place where he's more of a need.
At this stage, Archer, Jobe or Jack Williams won't get that attention until they start becoming a threat, so it will be tough for the other when one of JW & Oscar aren't playing.

 

[Woutizmoo]

Matt Blowies to WAFL pls

Long to go back before Owies. I daresay his 8 tackles in the fwd half was part of the reason our first half was succesful

 

[Broken_Chairs]

Out: AReid, Long, Petch
In: JWil, Graham, Gross/Allan

 

[THE A5]

Out Archer in Jobe Shanahan
In Graham out Duggan

Jobe is 195cm forward and his body still isn’t build to ruck at AFL level. Even moving a guy like Treacy around will be difficult

 

[Hoskin300]

Assuming no injuries and Graham is OK

In: J.Williams, Graham
Out: Long, Petruccelle

Backs: Edwards, Gov, Ginbey, Hough, Maric, Cole, Duggan
Mids: Kelly, Reid, Baker, Graham, Hunt, Dewar
Rucks: Williamses
Forwards: Allen, Reid, Ryan, Cripps, Owies, Brockman, Hewett
Sub: Hall
Emergencies: Petruccelle (held over), Flynn, Long

Williams in to provide an extra marking target and some backup in the ruck. I assume Waterman won't be back. Long dropped back to the WAFL to find some touch, he's been pretty invisible so far.

Graham back into the 22 for Hall, who performed well enough to stay in the side as sub. Petch drops out despite that good goal.

Couldn't find a spot for Allan to debut unfortunately. I'm sure there'll be some surprise injuries that will open the door.

Billiams keeps the ruck spot, assuming it was just cramp.

Making Hall the sub after the game he just had is criminal. The guy had 14 contested and 7 clearances. No way should graham be pushing him out.

 

[Hoskin300]

Can’t even begin to believe Hall could be dropped after that, even if he was in for Fridge. Big reason we were in it, 14/15 of his possessions contested and was really slick in close by hand today. Definitely a good showing and better contested than anything we had on the first two games combined on that front

If someone is saying to demote hall it’s a pretty good indication they either didn’t watch the game or just genuinely don’t have a clue.

 

[garlic munchers]

If someone is saying to demote hall it’s a pretty good indication they either didn’t watch the game or just genuinely don’t have a clue.

Agree, but they also said to that neanderthal who first brought that burning branch inside the cave..... take that outside you moron!

There's could be just a one in 100,000th chance they may be right, so brave call, might be silly call, but you just never, never know.

Bit like saying if we had darling for his 300th against Brissie, we win?

 

[archiemoses]

Brockman, Long, Hunt didn't do enough. Need more. Archer Reid struggling with cramp so probably worth giving him a week off from AFL.

Out: Archer Reid, Brockman/Long, Hunt
In: Flynn, Gross, Allan


Bailey Williams plays forward. Gross to play HF with stints on ball. Allan to wing.

 

[THE A5]

We need to show effort but I think Dockers will have us by a bit. The have the pressure on them and we would have be coming off a pretty physically draining game

 

[Kegs15]

Brockman, Long, Hunt didn't do enough. Need more. Archer Reid struggling with cramp so probably worth giving him a week off from AFL.

Out: Archer Reid, Brockman/Long, Hunt
In: Flynn, Gross, Allan


Bailey Williams plays forward. Gross to play HF with stints on ball. Allan to wing.

As much as I want to get around any team with my boy BBBBBBW in it, we just cannot play him and Flynn in the same side. Both are #1 rucks that each go 50% missing when rucking together IMO.

Bailey especially is awesome around the clearances, provides the scrap our mids need and I love him for it, but is completely lost as a consistent forward target. He's also got fitness as a weapon (have never seen him fail to run out a full game in the ruck before the Brisbane outlier) which gives us the bonus of naming a fwd/ruck instead of a second ruck, better for the team.

Our best balance is 1 of Bailey/Flynn as #1 ruck, 1 of Archer/JWilliams as fwd/ruck. Agree that Archer needs a rest so JWilliams to come in.

If for any reason both of Archer and JWilliams are unavailable I'd honestly rather bring Brock in and get HEdwards to chop out as a def/ruck, give us more options for Freo's talls. The game's gone past teams being able to play 2 fulltime rucks with weak second strings to their bow.

 

[mad_eagle]

Dare say we are going to be in a similar boat. Reckon we’ll see a number of guys being touch and go to get up this week…

 

[Woutizmoo]

If someone is saying to demote hall it’s a pretty good indication they either didn’t watch the game or just genuinely don’t have a clue.

was on one of the other threads that his body will not be able to back it up physically.

 

[Rids]

Don’t think we need too many changes unless guys need a rest from the conditions in Brisbane.

Out: Long (omit) In: Graham (if fit) otherwise Gross
Out: A.Reid (rest) In: J.Williams

If Waterman fit then Petch probably drops out (unlucky - thought he was okay as a sub).

If BJ can’t get up then Flynn comes back in.

Would like to get Bo Allan in but can’t find a spot for him just now - defensive 6 is clearly our strongest line over first two rounds and all of Ginbey, Hough, Cole and Maric are playing well.

 

[WCErevival]

I think there will be a few outs. No way Bailey gets up. You don't sub someone out with cramp. Reid will likely get a rest too.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get destroyed this week given the conditions against Brisbane. Will be a few sore players.

 

[Woutizmoo]

yeah I don't know how Maric didn't get picked r1. good kicking is good footy, some of his kicks out of defense were elite, something we have been craving since the glory days of Jetta and Hurn distributing off HB. (except for that one out on the full but lets not talk about that)

I didn't really get pay attention to his defensive game, can anyone add any commentary on that? I imagine its something that we're going to give me a solid block of games to work on, play on the 3rd tall or something. too small to play on a kpd, not mobile enough to play on a small

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Assuming no injuries, Graham for Long

Amazing how an .... honourable loss ... can turn the mood around, hope we stick it right up Freo and take the 4 points.

Will be the first game I'm able to get to this year. Shithouse conditions at the Gabba followed by mid-30s all week this week. Going to be draining.

 

[WeaponX]

We need to win this, Freo fans are melting down right now. I think Petch stays but Long has to go back to the WAFL, I would love to say TCole should be dropped but he showed just enough to stay.

 

[Astro7]

We need to win this, Freo fans are melting down right now. I think Petch stays but Long has to go back to the WAFL, I would love to say TCole should be dropped but he showed just enough to stay.

Love it when they're melting down like a nuclear power plant, especially under Mumbles.
They'll be ON this game, they're supposed to be flag contenders, we're roadkill, they need this win! We might get whacked, and it promises to be a fast, physical game.

Can we go the 4 qtrs after the Brissy trip is the thing, and can we maintain the same workrate and pressure as last game? Same expectations apply, last game was the standard and not to fall below that, doesn't have to be a win - but jeez, wouldn't a win be sweet!?????