Prediction Round 3, 2025: Changes vs Fremantle

[Smotie2]

In: waterman, Graham, Allen.
Out: long, a reid, cripps

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

In: waterman, Graham, Allen.
Out: long, a reid, cripps

Ginbey to be permanent backup ruck?

 

[Smotie2]

Ginbey to be permanent backup ruck?

Nah. Oscar Allen can do it. He hasn't done much last couple of weeks. Get him involved and up around the footy.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Nah. Oscar Allen can do it. He hasn't done much last couple of weeks. Get him involved and up around the footy.

That sounds like a fantastic way to break a valuable asset.

 

[stallon]

I see no reason we shouldnt persist with the 2 KPFs plus a ruck/fwd when we are fully fit.

Ideally we dont want Allen or Ginbey in the ruck.
If we dont want to play JWilliams for some reason while Waterman is out then sure, but bring Shanahan in in that case imo.

Imo we should have one from each combo
Allen/JWilliams as the bigger, slightly less mobile KPF who can crash a pack or sit at FF next to a big KPD
Waterman/Shanahan as a more athletic kpf
A.Reid/JWilliams backup ruck

Imo if we had another KPF named against Brisbane we can afford to bring Allen into the ruck for a bit, just want a tall target of some sort at all times.

Could see a world where Hutchinson is used as a 3rd tall of sorts at times over his time at west coast too, especially if we have Dewar + Hunt/Johnston/Davis/whoever on one of the wings

 

[WCEswift]

Waterman in and we win in brisbane IMO please be in for the derby

 

[Grahame]

Ginbey to be permanent backup ruck?

It was a bit of left field thinking from the coach - which I liked - but we won’t lose ruck 1 and ruck 2 very often.

Also, just an interesting insight into how much faith Mini has in a relatively inexperienced player.

 

[Kegs15]

I see no reason we shouldnt persist with the 2 KPFs plus a ruck/fwd when we are fully fit.

Ideally we dont want Allen or Ginbey in the ruck.
If we dont want to play JWilliams for some reason while Waterman is out then sure, but bring Shanahan in in that case imo.

Imo we should have one from each combo
Allen/JWilliams as the bigger, slightly less mobile KPF who can crash a pack or sit at FF next to a big KPD
Waterman/Shanahan as a more athletic kpf
A.Reid/JWilliams backup ruck

Imo if we had another KPF named against Brisbane we can afford to bring Allen into the ruck for a bit, just want a tall target of some sort at all times.

Could see a world where Hutchinson is used as a 3rd tall of sorts at times over his time at west coast too, especially if we have Dewar + Hunt/Johnston/Davis/whoever on one of the wings

I like your thinking on balance and if everyone's fully fit, think the Allen/Waterman/JWilliams (or Archer for that last spot) is the combo. I'm certainly not a fan of Allen having to ruck outside rare occasions.

However I also don't think on balance we should run with more than 1 of JWilliams, AReid or Shanahan (unless 2 of Waterman, Allen and both Flynn/Bailey are missing), as much as I want to blood the youth. Rotate those 3 around, sure, or maybe on occasion bring one in to give Allen a rest, but at this stage think it leaves too much room for 1 tall getting lost as a permanent setup.

Would much rather we lean towards going smaller than taller for the sake of it. Richmond were great with Riewoldt crashing packs solo and the smalls around him benefiting.

The Brisbane game was such an outlier with all the cramping and wouldn't want to be too reactive to that. 19 times out of 20 Bailey runs out the whole game, and then 17-18 times out of 20 our KPF/ruck also runs the full game or gets subbed last quarter for more run. Sure we lost ground against the reigning premiers at their home deck when those two went off but wouldn't want to forget how good we looked balance wise in the first half when they were playing.

We've been so locked into playing extra talls over the last decade or so. Cox-NN were so elite it didn't matter, then NN was dominant by himself but required a proper backup (as did Lycett with his body), but in the last few years when we've been playing a non-dominant ruck, 3 permanent tall forwards and a backup ruck we've been getting killed on the rebound.

One of Bailey's biggest strengths is being able to run out a full game and continue competing - I'd rather play to win and take advantage of that than name extra talls just in case and concede on run with our new gameplan.

Have Bailey as #1 ruck, one of JWill/Archer as backup but with the primary task of being a forward target and competing down the line, if both Waterman/Allen are fit that's fine but if one is out I still wouldn't change it, go a bit smaller and have Harley/Ryan rest as deep threats when needed.

(I'm responding more to other posts suggesting we need to go taller than last week rather than arguing against you in particular, I totally agree with your first sentence, just found it so much more palatable to watch us losing because of a freak scenario where we ended up too short, rather than losing games last year because we started too tall).

 

[stallon]

I like your thinking on balance and if everyone's fully fit, think the Allen/Waterman/JWilliams (or Archer for that last spot) is the combo. I'm certainly not a fan of Allen having to ruck outside rare occasions.

However I also don't think on balance we should run with more than 1 of JWilliams, AReid or Shanahan (unless 2 of Waterman, Allen and both Flynn/Bailey are missing), as much as I want to blood the youth. Rotate those 3 around, sure, or maybe on occasion bring one in to give Allen a rest, but at this stage think it leaves too much room for 1 tall getting lost as a permanent setup.

Would much rather we lean towards going smaller than taller for the sake of it. Richmond were great with Riewoldt crashing packs solo and the smalls around him benefiting.

The Brisbane game was such an outlier with all the cramping and wouldn't want to be too reactive to that. 19 times out of 20 Bailey runs out the whole game, and then 17-18 times out of 20 our KPF/ruck also runs the full game or gets subbed last quarter for more run. Sure we lost ground against the reigning premiers at their home deck when those two went off but wouldn't want to forget how good we looked balance wise in the first half when they were playing.

We've been so locked into playing extra talls over the last decade or so. Cox-NN were so elite it didn't matter, then NN was dominant by himself but required a proper backup (as did Lycett with his body), but in the last few years when we've been playing a non-dominant ruck, 3 permanent tall forwards and a backup ruck we've been getting killed on the rebound.

One of Bailey's biggest strengths is being able to run out a full game and continue competing - I'd rather play to win and take advantage of that than name extra talls just in case and concede on run with our new gameplan.

Have Bailey as #1 ruck, one of JWill/Archer as backup but with the primary task of being a forward target and competing down the line, if both Waterman/Allen are fit that's fine but if one is out I still wouldn't change it, go a bit smaller and have Harley/Ryan rest as deep threats when needed.

(I'm responding more to other posts suggesting we need to go taller than last week rather than arguing against you in particular, I totally agree with your first sentence, just found it so much more palatable to watch us losing because of a freak scenario where we ended up too short, rather than losing games last year because we started too tall).

What ive suggested isnt an extra tall, its the normal amount of talls that most clubs run with.
Most clubs do run with 2 actual KPFs and a ruck/fwd, and they generally dont get subbed, last weekend was unusual.
I did not and would not suggest going with 3 KPFs and a ruck/fwd.

Im thinking about keeping a consistent structure ahead of the ball regardless of who is named

Ill argue that having Waterman, BWilliams and A.Reid as 3 of our taller players at least partially makes up for anything lost by not having an extra small, theyre all athletic/decent ground ball players or very good runners.

 

[Kegs15]

What ive suggested isnt an extra tall, its the normal amount of talls that most clubs run with.
Most clubs do run with 2 actual KPFs and a ruck/fwd, and they generally dont get subbed, last weekend was unusual.
I did not and would not suggest going with 3 KPFs and a ruck/fwd.

Im thinking about keeping a consistent structure ahead of the ball regardless of who is named

Ill argue that having Waterman, BWilliams and A.Reid as 3 of our taller players at least partially makes up for anything lost by not having an extra small, theyre all athletic/decent ground ball players or very good runners.

Yeah definitely, and as I said was probably responding more to those saying we needed to go taller than last week but using your post as a jumping point. Know you didn't suggest 3 KPFs plus a ruck/fwd, that was just me bemoaning how we've been in the past.

I suppose for me though the balance is:

If Waterman/Allen both available, then those two plus an Archer/JWilliams (2 KPFs and a ruck/fwd as you say). Waterman and Allen have played together enough and are smart enough that they'll work the space properly and make it easy for the younger tall.

If one of them isn't available, like say last week with Allen only, then where I'd disagree is I'd probably just want our lineup to be similar to how we did last week - have Archer or JWill as the second KPF, Bailey to ruck most of the game and they chop out on occasion - on those occasions let Ryan/Harley hold the structure as the deep fwd and push Allen to CHF. (So guess I'm saying 1 less tall rather than saying you're suggesting an extra one).

That structure worked really really well last week, it only fell down when we lost both our ruck options. Don't think we were struggling with structure ahead of the ball until Bailey went off.

Part of it all is that I'd love an extra mid rotation or two (eg get Gross in for now/keep Hall playing even when Yeo is back) and allow more of our mids to play forward to keep them fresher at the contest. Think that's along the lines of how Richmond did it and how we'll get the best out of players like Harley, Hewett, even Kelly.

If Allen and Waterman are both available that combo is too good to pass up but if one or more of them is out, I see more value in our smalls than I do in having two of Archer, JWill or Shanahan at this stage of their development.

 

[We_The_West]

Ginbey to be permanent backup ruck?

To be fair... he actually competed pretty well and was an extra mid at ground level.

Shaun Grigg 2.0

 

[We_The_West]

I'd give Noah Long a run in the 2s, get him playing on ball and racking up some touches. Needs to get some touch.

Swap Archer for Jilliams.

Cripps gets another week, but is facing the chopping block. Maybe even start him as sub and Petch starts on field.

Would love to get Gross in for an early debut in front of a home crowd.

Allan needs to come in and start getting games under his belt.... start him in defence to build his touch and confidence.

Ideally, Bo turns into our version of LDU.... big bodied, agile and fast, tackle-breaking mid

 

[stallon]

Yeah definitely, and as I said was probably responding more to those saying we needed to go taller than last week but using your post as a jumping point. Know you didn't suggest 3 KPFs plus a ruck/fwd, that was just me bemoaning how we've been in the past.

All good

I suppose for me though the balance is:

If Waterman/Allen both available, then those two plus an Archer/JWilliams (2 KPFs and a ruck/fwd as you say). Waterman and Allen have played together enough and are smart enough that they'll work the space properly and make it easy for the younger tall.

If one of them isn't available, like say last week with Allen only, then where I'd disagree is I'd probably just want our lineup to be similar to how we did last week - have Archer or JWill as the second KPF, Bailey to ruck most of the game and they chop out on occasion - on those occasions let Ryan/Harley hold the structure as the deep fwd and push Allen to CHF. (So guess I'm saying 1 less tall rather than saying you're suggesting an extra one).

Im not suggesting an extra tall, im just suggesting the amount stays consistent as the normal amount we would have planned for originally with Allen, Waterman and a ruck/fwd, and we use that base structure to give games to our young KPFs when someone is out.

That structure worked really really well last week, it only fell down when we lost both our ruck options. Don't think we were struggling with structure ahead of the ball until Bailey went off.

Id argue our forward structure was kinda average on the weekend. It worked when we were up and about, had energy, and we were winning clearances. It did fall apart later in the game when we didnt have clearances ascendancy or the speed.
How often are we going to have that clearance dominance like we did in the first half? How often are we going to run out games better than the opposition? Probably not too often this year.

Part of it all is that I'd love an extra mid rotation or two (eg get Gross in for now/keep Hall playing even when Yeo is back) and allow more of our mids to play forward to keep them fresher at the contest. Think that's along the lines of how Richmond did it and how we'll get the best out of players like Harley, Hewett, even Kelly.

This should come at the expense of our smaller forwards like good clubs do, not at the expense of a key position player.
Clubs run probably 6 guys who attend any CBAs in a game, we have Baker, Graham, Kelly, Hewett, Reid, and a Yeo/Hall type. We probably have 1 too many inside mid types tbh, but thats just where our midfield is at I think.
Thats enough mids for a single game.

I think the path for Gross to get into the side is as a forward like Hewett is doing, but I dont think its doable when we have Hewett, Reid and Hall all finding their feet and not up to doing 60%+ mid time week in week out yet. Its just too many at once.

If Allen and Waterman are both available that combo is too good to pass up but if one or more of them is out, I see more value in our smalls than I do in having two of Archer, JWill or Shanahan at this stage of their development.

We see the likes of Caddy, Dear, and Morris in the last year or so jump straight into AFL in their first seasons and play reasonably well. Cadman played a bunch in his first season too. If they rely on athleticism, leading and jumping(like Shanahan) they can impact early. Again, this would just be the odd game.
JWil and A.Reid are ready for AFL exposure naturally, as we know.

Look at GWS, theyre a nice example of a forward line to at least try to emulate, probably the best in the comp with some great talls and smalls.
They run Hogan and Cadman with Riccardi as a ruck/fwd, they also have a group of quick small/half forwards who can get right up the ground and also attend CBAs(Green and Daniels notably).
Hogan is built more like Allen, Cadman is more athletic and Riccardi is just a big body who can ruck/fwd. Thats more or less what I suggested earlier

 

[stallon]

I'd give Noah Long a run in the 2s, get him playing on ball and racking up some touches. Needs to get some touch.

Swap Archer for Jilliams.

Cripps gets another week, but is facing the chopping block. Maybe even start him as sub and Petch starts on field.

Would love to get Gross in for an early debut in front of a home crowd.

Allan needs to come in and start getting games under his belt.... start him in defence to build his touch and confidence.

Ideally, Bo turns into our version of LDU.... big bodied, agile and fast, tackle-breaking mid

Perhaps even he becomes a version of a much more physically and athletically similar player who he could even talk to and ask questions every day at training rather than some North player

 

[BSD]

How many backflips will we see this weekend?

From that Tosser Fredericks ?

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeo still listed as 4-5 weeks despite it saying that a week ago... whi would thought.

he'll be 4-5 in May

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[DorothyG]

Yeo still listed as 4-5 weeks despite it saying that a week ago... whi would thought.

he'll be 4-5 in May

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This has Natanui after the bye vibes...

 

[Keys]

Yeo still listed as 4-5 weeks despite it saying that a week ago... whi would thought.

he'll be 4-5 in May

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From the official injury reports -
4/3: 6-8 weeks
11/3: 5-7 weeks
18/3: 5-6 weeks
25/3: 4-5 weeks

Stop making things up - it’s come down each week

The original injury was on 24/1 - about 9 weeks ago. If he remains on target it’ll be a 13-14 week recovery from ankle surgery and an MCL.

That’s not an unreasonable timeframe

 

[DorothyG]

I'll defend the club on most things until the the cows come home, but their history of injury reporting has been poor and treated the fans with contempt.

I understand no two injuries are the same and trying to quantify a time frame would be a hard task, just be honest.

Im not surprised people are now sceptical of the reported timeframes.

 

[Keys]

I'll defend the club on most things until the the cows come home, but their history of injury reporting has been poor and treated the fans with contempt.

I understand no two injuries are the same and trying to quantify a time frame would be a hard task, just be honest.

Im not surprised people are now sceptical of the reported timeframes.

Since Matt Innes came to the club the injury reporting has improved - it’s not perfect but never will be because there will always be setbacks and instances where injuries aren’t immediately disclosed

 

[Cuzz09]

From the official injury reports -
4/3: 6-8 weeks
11/3: 5-7 weeks
18/3: 5-6 weeks
25/3: 4-5 weeks

Stop making things up - it’s come down each week

The original injury was on 24/1 - about 9 weeks ago. If he remains on target it’ll be a 13-14 week recovery from ankle surgery and an MCL.

That’s not an unreasonable timeframe

ok well technically I said 5

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[Smotie2]

That sounds like a fantastic way to break a valuable asset.

Break? He's an elite athlete..or should be.
Are we limited by potential injuries now?

For 800k a season he can wherever the **** I tell him to play.
The firsts 2 weeks he's not worth the money and he's lucky the blowtorch is on Reid right now.

 

[Smotie2]

This has Natanui after the bye vibes...

Don't reckon yeo will play this year. Sadly

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

For 800k a season he can wherever the **** I tell him to play.

I don’t think you’re the one writing the cheques, are you?

 

[Astro7]

Ginbey to be permanent backup ruck?

The Ginbeast wasn't too bad at it, with that upper body strength...