Rumour File #6

[Aphrodite]

Well surely the players around him would have noticed he wasn't all there.

Why are you still referring to the Geelong game.

It's all done & dusted and was in Rnd 9.

This is a Rumour thread.

 

[HARKER]

Harks...blasphemy

Yes we need mids (of course we do) but look at it this way. Our current midfield brigade is def in the top 5 in the league.

Blasphemy? Butcher has reached godly status after 3 games?

I look at it this way.
We're currently the 4th. highest scoring side in the league (we will be after the weekend as Essendon don't have a game) yet we've been devoid of Henderson and Waite forward for most of the year.
Out of a possible 44 games combined, we would have had no more than 20 games combined from the two.

How are we still getting our goals?
Well it starts from the trash that Hank talks about, being our ruckmen, that feed to our quality mids that give us first possession and quick entries forward.
Never enough mids to keep rotations up and give relief to largely Judd and Murphy, for now.
The others still have some way to go and Mclean just hasn't done what he was hired to do.
That's where we need the assistance.

The other thing that hasn't really worked for us this year to date is Kreuzer, whose return you would have imagined to have been a lot better than it has been to date.
We had Wallsy calling Kreuzer a potential 80 goals a season forward and though I can't quite see that, but a 50 return from the big man would go a long way to us having quite an imposing forward set-up.

I won't go into talking about Mitchell because he hasn't played a game just yet, but if he had played three, then who knows.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Blasphemy? Butcher has reached godly status after 3 games?

I look at it this way.
We're currently the 4th. highest scoring side in the league (we will be after the weekend as Essendon don't have a game) yet we've been devoid of Henderson and Waite forward for most of the year.
Out of a possible 44 games combined, we would have had no more than 20 games combined from the two.

How are we still getting our goals?
Well it starts from the trash that Hank talks about, being our ruckmen, that feed to our quality mids that give us first possession and quick entries forward.
Never enough mids to keep rotations up and give relief to largely Judd and Murphy, for now.
The others still have some way to go and Mclean just hasn't done what he was hired to do.
That's where we need the assistance.

The other thing that hasn't really worked for us this year to date is Kreuzer, whose return you would have imagined to have been a lot better than it has been to date.
We had Wallsy calling Kreuzer a potential 80 goals a season forward and though I can't quite see that, but a 50 return from the big man would go a long way to us having quite an imposing forward set-up.

I won't go into talking about Mitchell because he hasn't played a game just yet, but if he had played three, then who knows.

Harks, that only applies to bottom 8 teams which we smash with a dominant midfield. Against top 4 sides we are gimps in the fwd line.

Vs Pies 74 points and 79pts
vs Hawks 66pts
vs Cats 100 pts
vs Eagles 67pts


vs bottom teams
GC 174 pts
Port 111pts
Lions 124pts
Richmond 184 and 104 pts

It seriously highlights that yes, our fwd line and mid can dispatch the no hopers due to superior class of mids/small.

It also seriously highlights that when up against another strong mid and good talls side we REALLY struggle.

Well, when the finals come around, i know which group we will be playing...do you?

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Harks, that only applies to bottom 8 teams which we smash with a dominant midfield. Against top 4 sides we are gimps in the fwd line.

Vs Pies 74 points and 79pts
vs Hawks 66pts
vs Cats 100 pts
vs Eagles 67pts


vs bottom teams
GC 174 pts
Port 111pts
Lions 124pts
Richmond 184 and 104 pts

It seriously highlights that yes, our fwd line and mid can dispatch the no hopers due to superior class of mids/small.

It also seriously highlights that when up against another strong mid and good talls side we REALLY struggle.

Well, when the finals come around, i know which group we will be playing...do you?

^^
This

 

[HARKER]

Harks, that only applies to bottom 8 teams which we smash with a dominant midfield. Against top 4 sides we are gimps in the fwd line.

Vs Pies 74 points and 79pts
vs Hawks 66pts
vs Cats 100 pts
vs Eagles 67pts

You sort of skimmed across the little insignificant part of Henderson and Waite out for more than half the year, collectively.
Oh and the fact that Kreuzer really hasn't added as much as we believe he will when he gets on top of his injury as he has spent most of his time forward since coming back.

It's still all relative as you can hardly say that the above teams blew us away either in the games you have highlighted, with our average losing margin of 19 points, so that argument doesn't quite work on its own either.

Would I take Butcher? Of course I would.
Would I want to give him a 5 year deal and who knows how many players and draft picks?

I'd sooner bet on the mid.

 

[HARKER]

That <<< >>> VVV ^^^

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

That <<< >>> VVV ^^^

This!

 

[Boltfromtheblue]

this is probably a better package
[YOUTUBE]EBF-GRl61c4[/YOUTUBE]
really looks like a sure thing and exactly what we need.


One example of how SOS liked to throw himself at the contest and his willingness to find body contact similar to what I see in Butcher. Butcher doesn't just get to the contest and reach out to grab the ball he does a lot more to make it hard for defenders. What a great mark!
[YOUTUBE]sB5KFbIhzco[/YOUTUBE]

Anyone can take a grab with a guitar riff and drum kit to punctuate the mark.

Silvani: no guitar, no drums...Legend!

 

[Wickzki]

Henderson will be just a handy tall forward who will kick you 60 odd goals a year which is good but doesn't make a champion. .

Sweet. Going into the last round that would make him the third leading goal scorer in the league. Given our midfield loaded with goal scoring mids (Gibbs, Murphy, Judd, Simmo, Robbo) and our medium and small forwards (Tex, Garlett and Betts) if we could get a 60 odd goal scorer from Hendo we'd have the most dominant forward line in the league.

Guess by your expectations it'd be suicide to overpay for Butcher based on three games. If that's the case then please give us another inside midfielder so that we can constantly rotate one of Murphy, Judd and Gibbs off of the half forward line and another good sized defender.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Hawthorn really showed how to beat us. Sacrifice their good midfield to neutralize our better than good midfield, and leave the game to be won elsewhere.

He neutralized Yarran and left the rest of the defence alone.

He put the game on Buddy's shoulders and he won it for him in the first half. That was their additional advantage over us. His get out of a jail free card.

He closed down the game making it hard to score. He left his freak (trump card) to find a way to win a tight game (Buddy). and note...in this very tight low scoring game rioli was ineffective...oh, another small.

They absolutely detroyed us when it counted. It will be same again in a final if we meet them.

The thing is, against a different opposition, Clarkson can change his sides tactics...he could use his midfield as an attacking weapon because they are no slouches.

Against the good sides, we still have plan A...please Carlton midfield, deliver us a win.

Our small fwds dont deliver us wins a in a hard tight game against a disciplined top 4 defence. Our small fwds kill the weaker inexperienced team's who are not trained or disciplined enough to close them down.

Killing these bottom teams continues to hide our weakness as people cite season averages and state our fwd line can deliver in a final.

Against Collingwood, it is much of the same, break even in the mids and let the talls up fwd deliver the difference...in particular Cloke this year. Even more than that, Collingwood simply have better transition so dont even need cloke to beat us.

You bring up the fact that we have had injuries in the big games. This an invalid argument and only further backs up my position of trading for KPP players. Pies have lost the same amount of talls this year, ...so have Hawthorn for this season.

The difference is they had depth to cover and we havent. Our 2011 campaign has been derailed by it. Neither of theirs have been.

Hence the argument to trade for talls over a mid. Draft is a diff matter.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Harks, that only applies to bottom 8 teams which we smash with a dominant midfield. Against top 4 sides we are gimps in the fwd line.

Vs Pies 74 points and 79pts
vs Hawks 66pts
vs Cats 100 pts
vs Eagles 67pts


Well, when the finals come around, i know which group we will be playing...do you?

Hawthorn v

Collingwood 65
Geelong 98 & 83
Eagles 72
Carlton 78

Geelong v

Collingwood 65
Hawthorn 117 & 88
Eagles 88
Carlton 102

Eagles v

Collingwood 53
Geelong 96
Hawthorn 65
Carlton 103

Collingwood v

Geelong 62
Hawthorn 106
Eagles 105
Carlton 102 & 98

Collingwood Avg For 121 Agst 66
Geelong Avg For 114 Agst 74
Hawthorn Avg For 107 Agst 73
West Coast Avg For 99 Agst 79
Carlton Avg For 102 Agst 76

While I agree that Carlton did not reach their average points for in any game vs the top 4, this is what you might expect when playing quality. It's not as though the other teams found the going heaps easier vs each other.

Collingwood got nowhere near their scoring average against any of the 4 teams and Carlton were the only team that scored more than Collingwood's average against points.

Carlton, Eagles and Hawthorn all exceeded Geelong's avg against points.

In fact the top 4 bar Hawthorn all exceeded Carlton's against average fairly easily. Seems our defence let us down in those games, not our forwards.

Eagles and Carlton failed to beat Hawthorn's average against score so that is a blight on our forwards. We were a goal off it though and they were only a couple of points above ours.

Hawthorn and Carlton failed to beat the Eagles average against score.

All swings and roundabouts when you are dealing with the top end, and you can make stats sit up and sing whatever you want them to.

 

[Wickzki]

The difference is they had depth to cover and we havent. Our 2011 campaign has been derailed by it. Neither of theirs have been.

Hence the argument to trade for talls over a mid. Draft is a diff matter.

The other side of that argument is -- we have precious little to trade (Bower, perhaps one of our rucks Hampson/Warnock though I'd tend to keep both even as much as I've been criticizing Warnock lately); and the truth is to get a tall who would be perceived good enough to push us forward NOW it would take more than that.

You're stating that we don't have the depth to win a premiership yet (I agree) but in the very next breath you're suggesting that we trade for a key forward. With what? The little depth that we actually do have? Seems very lateral, if not backwards trading to me.

Butcher is going to be an absolute gun. There is next to no doubt whatsoever in my mind. However, if you're going to trade the farm to get him to Carlton and and fully expect a third year forward (really in his second year as he didn't play in his first) to carry a premiership winning forward line in a team that you've just decimated of whatever depth it has in order to secure him then you're dreaming. Don't point out Kernahan and 1987 to me, either. That team loaded up rather than decimating it when adding Sticks so its not the same type of scenario whatsoever.

If he comes at a price which we can afford without crucifying us for years then of course you go for it (he wont) as its an absolute no brainer. However, if the price is gutting the team of its depth then it's too steep a price.

This team simply cannot rob Peter to pay Paul.

 

[OldBlueFan]

Harks, that only applies to bottom 8 teams which we smash with a dominant midfield. Against top 4 sides we are gimps in the fwd line.

Vs Pies 74 points and 79pts
vs Hawks 66pts
vs Cats 100 pts
vs Eagles 67pts


vs bottom teams
GC 174 pts
Port 111pts
Lions 124pts
Richmond 184 and 104 pts

It seriously highlights that yes, our fwd line and mid can dispatch the no hopers due to superior class of mids/small.

It also seriously highlights that when up against another strong mid and good talls side we REALLY struggle.

Well, when the finals come around, i know which group we will be playing...do you?

I'm not arguing that a good KPF would not be an improvement for the Blues, but this just goes to show that stats don't tell the whole story. You say we only beat up on the lower teams and that the teams with solid KPF's do better?

Well, according to these stats, it seems we're not the only ones:

Collingwood
v Carlton 102 & 98
v Hawthorn 106
v Geelong 62
v West Coast 105

Hawthorn
v Carlton 78
v Collingwood 65
v Geelong 83
v West Coast 72

Geelong
v Carlton 102
v Collingwood 65
v Hawthorn 117
v West Coast 88

West Coast
v Carlton 103
v Collingwood 53
v Hawthorn 65
v Geelong 96

Carlton are the the 4th highest scoring team in the league and they would seem to get the majority of their points in the same games that the teams who score higher than them do, cos none of those teams really beat up on the other high scoring teams.

EDIT: Damn you ODN, you beat me to it and did a better job to boot!

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Hawthorn v

Collingwood 65
Geelong 98 & 83
Eagles 72
Carlton 78

Geelong v

Collingwood 65
Hawthorn 117 & 88
Eagles 88
Carlton 102

Eagles v

Collingwood 53
Geelong 96
Hawthorn 65
Carlton 103

Collingwood v

Geelong 62
Hawthorn 106
Eagles 105
Carlton 102 & 98

Collingwood Avg For 121 Agst 66
Geelong Avg For 114 Agst 74
Hawthorn Avg For 107 Agst 73
West Coast Avg For 99 Agst 79
Carlton Avg For 102 Agst 76

While I agree that Carlton did not reach their average points for in any game vs the top 4, this is what you might expect when playing quality. It's not as though the other teams found the going heaps easier vs each other.

Collingwood got nowhere near their scoring average against any of the 4 teams and Carlton were the only team that scored more than Collingwood's average against points.

Carlton, Eagles and Hawthorn all exceeded Geelong's avg against points.

In fact the top 4 bar Hawthorn all exceeded Carlton's against average fairly easily. Seems our defence let us down in those games, not our forwards.

Eagles and Carlton failed to beat Hawthorn's average against score so that is a blight on our forwards. We were a goal off it though and they were only a couple of points above ours.

Hawthorn and Carlton failed to beat the Eagles average against score.

All swings and roundabouts when you are dealing with the top end, and you can make stats sit up and sing whatever you want them to.

I think you are missing a subtle point. Each of those teams can handle a tight scoring game and wont be scared by it. Carlton will be hoping like hell for some reason or another it opens up to a fast paced high scoring game...we are the only team in the top group that fears a closed down tight game.

We are the odd ones out and there is a reason for it. The reason why we are the odd one out is that we have no outlet in tight games. Buddy, Kennedy, Cloke and well Geelong use a multitude of outlets from Scarlett/Taylor/Pods/Otten through this season. All strong marking KPP talls.

In tight games, these guys are gold dust. It means you get a breather..a reset in games. We never get this in the tight ones..and it is the reason other teams come in confident against us. We have enough class to overcome weaker non flag contedor sides..but not the top 4.

Aside from this outlet they provide, they can take a game clinching mark to seal a game.

This has meant each of those teams have won hard tight games and why we havent vs a top 4 opponent. And it is the reason we will stumble in the finals.

Yes, we almost beat Geelong but that was an early season high scoring game that probably wont repeat in a final. They also represent the team we'd like to play the most in a final because they are historically the least strategic.

How many times do small fwds go mssing in hard games/fnials. It is almost why Milne is called a downhill skier...in finals, defensive discipline almost kills thse guys off. You need an KPP outlet to at least be competive in these games!

 

[Wickzki]

How many times do small fwds go mssing in hard games/fnials. It is almost why Milne is called a downhill skier...in finals, defensive discipline almost kills thse guys off. You need an KPP outlet to at least be competive in these games!

How many times do you see the Norm Smith medalist take the form of a small forward who can rotate through the midfield? This is something Garlett's working his game towards doing, something Walker can do, something Yarran can do if played up forward)

Goal Scoring, ball winning Small/Medium Forward

2009 Paul Chapman
2007 Steve Johnson
2004 Byron Pickett
2000 James Hird
1999 Shannon Grant
1995 Greg Williams (played in the forward pocket)

Total: 6

Midfielder

2010 Scott Pendlebury
2010 Lenny Hayes
2008 Luke Hodge
2006 Andrew Embley
2005 Chris Judd
2003 Simon Black
2002 Nathan Buckley
2001 Shaun Hart

Total: 8

Small / Medium defender

1998 Andrew McLeod
1997 Andrew McLeod
1996 Glenn Archer

Total: 3

Yes, some of those teams had good or great KPF. However, to point out and suggest that small forwards go missing in finals and giving an example of a mental midget like Stephen Milne is absolutely ludicrous. The Norm Smith Medal has gone to small forwards in 6 of the last 17 grand finals (35% of the time). There are no NSM KPD or KPF.

 

[blue healer]

The other side of that argument is -- we have precious little to trade (Bower, perhaps one of our rucks Hampson/Warnock though I'd tend to keep both even as much as I've been criticizing Warnock lately); and the truth is to get a tall who would be perceived good enough to push us forward NOW it would take more than that.

You're stating that we don't have the depth to win a premiership yet (I agree) but in the very next breath you're suggesting that we trade for a key forward. With what? The little depth that we actually do have? Seems very lateral, if not backwards trading to me.

Butcher is going to be an absolute gun. There is next to no doubt whatsoever in my mind. However, if you're going to trade the farm to get him to Carlton and and fully expect a third year forward (really in his second year as he didn't play in his first) to carry a premiership winning forward line in a team that you've just decimated of whatever depth it has in order to secure him then you're dreaming. Don't point out Kernahan and 1987 to me, either. That team loaded up rather than decimating it when adding Sticks so its not the same type of scenario whatsoever.

If he comes at a price which we can afford without crucifying us for years then of course you go for it (he wont) as its an absolute no brainer. However, if the price is gutting the team of its depth then it's too steep a price.

This team simply cannot rob Peter to pay Paul.

Agree with all aspects of this post and would remind that we were all stoked with the tall kids we drafted last year and had no expectation that they would have an immediate impact.

Lets see what impact these kids have in the next 2 years and that of a fit Waite, Bower,Jameison, Hampson, Kreuzer and O'Hailpin because these are all guys who, even if playing at the moment have had interrupted seasons and all have shown the inconsistency that this causes.

Would love Butcher but we must not sell the farm to get him.

 

[HARKER]

Would love Butcher but we must not sell the farm to get him.

I don't think we'll have to.

And the domino effect initiated at Port Adelaide last week with the re-signing of key defender Jackson Trengove looks to continue with the Power set to secure John Butcher for the next two seasons.
Butcher's manager, Paul Connors, met Port Adelaide officials yesterday and while the player himself appeared keen to reconcile his decision with his family, both parties were confident of a deal soon.

 

[blue healer]

I don't think we'll have to.

Can't say that this would disappoint me Harks.

I feel for Port and am old enough to remember when we went through this "will they or won't they stay" angst every time Kouta, Silvagni and Bradley et al came off contract and had buckets thrown at them by any amount of opposition clubs.

 

[Blue Bawls]

RUMOUR (just to break the trend)

Heard from recruiting insider last night that Fev is going to Freo next year. I post this in the Carlton forums for the benefit of those who have taken interest in where his future lies.

 

[Beloved]

RUMOUR (just to break the trend)

Heard from recruiting insider last night that Fev is going to Freo next year. I post this in the Carlton forums for the benefit of those who have taken interest in where his future lies.

Pav said two days ago in an interview that Fevola doesn't "the the mould" of what they're looking for, and that he will be looking to go forward next year.

I also wouldn't really call discussing Fevola breaking the trend.

 

[Big Sim]

I think you are missing a subtle point. Each of those teams can handle a tight scoring game and wont be scared by it. Carlton will be hoping like hell for some reason or another it opens up to a fast paced high scoring game...we are the only team in the top group that fears a closed down tight game.

We are the odd ones out and there is a reason for it. The reason why we are the odd one out is that we have no outlet in tight games. Buddy, Kennedy, Cloke and well Geelong use a multitude of outlets from Scarlett/Taylor/Pods/Otten through this season. All strong marking KPP talls.

In tight games, these guys are gold dust. It means you get a breather..a reset in games. We never get this in the tight ones..and it is the reason other teams come in confident against us. We have enough class to overcome weaker non flag contedor sides..but not the top 4.

Aside from this outlet they provide, they can take a game clinching mark to seal a game.

This has meant each of those teams have won hard tight games and why we havent vs a top 4 opponent. And it is the reason we will stumble in the finals.

Yes, we almost beat Geelong but that was an early season high scoring game that probably wont repeat in a final. They also represent the team we'd like to play the most in a final because they are historically the least strategic.

How many times do small fwds go mssing in hard games/fnials. It is almost why Milne is called a downhill skier...in finals, defensive discipline almost kills thse guys off. You need an KPP outlet to at least be competive in these games!

A well argued post.

Our achilles heel is not so much a lack of talls, but a lack of marking talls. It kills us when we kick long out of our defensive 50 and kills us inside our attacking 50. That's why Waite has been such a big loss, why Warnock's future is dubious, and why imo Kruze has been a disappointment sinc he came back. Our best mark is out and our giants can't mark.

 

[Silvagnis]

This thread is shit.

God knows what I'd be reading if Hurley became available.

 

[Blue Bawls]

Pav said two days ago in an interview that Fevola doesn't "the the mould" of what they're looking for, and that he will be looking to go forward next year.

I also wouldn't really call discussing Fevola breaking the trend.

Yeah, I also just heard Harvey said no On The Couch. Yet, this guy seemed pretty sure.

 

[Chris Judd Fan]

This thread is shit.

Amen to that.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I heard an interesing whisper about a semi-established player from "up north", declaring some interest in playing for Carlton next year.