Season 2012 wide open.

[Howard Moon]

agreed...

we still had players from the dominant 80s.. had some midrage players from the 90 gf and the rest were all baby faced kids. The mix just worked perfect that year. The kids freshend the oldies, the oldies inspired and taught the kids. We didnt really have a rebuild of sorts.. it just happened in the blink of an eye.

This time around we have rebuilt .. done the hard yards. We dont have that core of players that have been there before. but....

We have now had 2 losing finals from this group... they should be beginning to know what its all about. I like the fact that Hird, Bomber and co continue to preach the mantra that we are wanting to play 'football that wins finals' I like that we can keep grinding away with the contested ball even when we arnt playing that well.. we are still winning so far.

We just need to make the finals with gas left in the tank. Then as has been mentioned.. its another season of 8 teams in there.. and this year the winner could come from anywhere.

Obviously the teams going to perth have it tough though!

 

[Howard Moon]

We are now a quarter of the way in and still... it seems wide open.

WCE undefeated but injuries mounting, if they lose this week there is a 5 way tie at the top.

CARL are still playing well but we exposed a weakness

SYD were flying but got beat at home, loss of Goodes will be telling

ESS are playing strong contested football and the football world are taking notice

ADE still flying, trying to find a weakness... i think its defence.. and tippets kicking!

GEE are winning ugly, but too many talented players to discount

FREO are playing ugly Lyon football... but winning, i think they will be the team to go out of the 8 for Haw to come in

COLL just trying to get through the injury plague... look to be adjusting to the new game plan but still not flying

and the 2 outsdide the 8 that could make it....

NTH with the soft draw could get in but for who?

HAW have been arrogant in their play.. when they come to to the races are still awesome.. they will be there abouts.

Theres now 10 teams who can a: make the finals, most of which could give it a shake.

anyone closer to calling the top 4 yet?

 

[Lord Nicholson]

anyone closer to calling the top 4 yet?

Could be decided in Round 23 if the trends continue.

Already a much better season than last year.

 

[Kyptastic]

Howard, I wouldn't put it past Richmond or St Kilda to sneak in, but they're long shots. The other six teams are pretty much gone already in terms of finals contention.

 

[Essendonia]

If Richmond gather momentum, and Riewoldt and Vickery actually kick some goals, they could knock off most of the teams in the league on their day.

Saints are probably past it, and the lack of recruiting in the Lyon era will hurt them in the next five years. Still relying on Hayes, Riewoldt, Goddard and Milne to win matches. Good players, with some good support, but lacking depth and perhaps passion...

As frustrating as tipping can be, each match is exciting since you cannot predict the outcome and are bound to get a tight final quarter in most matches.

After this week, we could be anywhere from 1st on the ladder (massive WC win) or 8th.

 

[Howard Moon]

without sounding negative.... or defeatist..

Richmond will beat us in the dreamtime game in a few weeks.... dosent matter what happenes between now and then.. its already a fact.

 

[Kong]

Yeah I'm pretty much expecting it, too.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

**** dat shit.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

jesus, what the **** is that shit guys??

Richmond won't beat us. Not a hope in hell. We'll have quite a few back by then and we'll give it to them hard.

If it was "like last year" we wouldn't have put Brisbane to the sword. We wouldn't have kept with Collingwood. We wouldn't have caned Carlton.

We will beat Richmond and we'll do it well. Very confident.

 

[grugsticles]

without sounding negative.... or defeatist..

Richmond will beat us in the dreamtime game in a few weeks.... dosent matter what happenes between now and then.. its already a fact.

Ditto. Riewalt will finally hit form... against us.

 

[Kong]

Don't get me wrong, I think we're around 10 goals better than them right now.

They just seem to match up well on us, although as Lance said, this year appears different to the norm.

 

[Dave]

Last year, no Watson, no Hocking, our leading clearance winners. No Hurley. Looked knackered, played accordingly.

 

[Howard Moon]

its not just last year.. it seems they have beaten us a few times in the first meeting of the year.. (havent looked at stats to back it up)

things look good for the tiges this year.... if/when they finish 9th they will actually be in the top half of the league...

 

[yaco55]

I sit in the middle.

Don't expect to beat Richmond by 10 goals, but don't expect to lose.

I do know that it will be a competitive game.

 

[Howard Moon]

hmmm re reading over this old chestnut...

We are now 16 rounds in. Season still wide open yes.. but the cream is rising and there is an order that is sorting itself i guess...

Sydney - sit top with a big percentage... they should get their home final which is a big bonus but personally i still dont think they are THAT good, after rememebering our game at etihad, when we couldnt do a thing right for 3 qtrs then opened them up in the last i wouldnt really fear going up there so much. They seem to drop of for periods during games

Adelaide - Softest of soft draws will probably get them close to a top 4 finish, look good but not great, i reckon they may go out in straight sets but i still wouldnt like to play them at home in a final personally.

Collingwood - Are motoring along winning games, have their injury concerns but seem to always be able to find a kid that can come in and play a role. On their day they are a dominant football team, and that is a lot of the time, but they have a few chinks in their armour and are beatable.

Hawthorn - Are cruising along really, beating up on weaker teams flat track bully style, still want to see them tested agaisnt the best before i make judgment. Think they are top 4 and expect them to be in the gf after last years near miss. They have so many sweet kickers of the ball from defence... if they keep pumping it into buddy and roughy they will eventually kick a winning score. Opposition tall forwards and one paced midfield still their worry.

West Coast - Absolultley ravaged by injury, have done well to stay where they are. You would think they need a home final to make a decent run at a flag but i dont see them getting there at this stage. Deff need a nicer run with injury. I could handle playing this mob in melb....

Essendon - Ravaged with injury as well, our best is brilliant, our bad is horrible.. still working on consistancy. We seem to get up and play well agaisnt the best, which is lucky because we have a hard run home. Our contested style of play is designed with finals in mind, if we get players back from injury and can string a few together we could worry a few sides.

Geelong - Are JUST going now. still have too many good players to discount but they just dont seem to have the same spark, the same drive as years past. The kids havent quite come on to fill the void left by the aging stars. You still woudlnt want to draw them in a final just incase but they are beatable.

St Kilda - just holding on to the final spot in a merry-go-round with a few other clubs. They will just be filling the numbers if they make it but can produce a good game on their day (last week)

Nth - of the sides around 8th they look the most capable of an upset. They are young, quick, dynamic and have a strong midfield. They have beaten a few good sides this year and you would want to be on guard if you were playing them in a final.

Freo - still have 4 games at subi so could do enough to make the 8 but wouldnt be much use if they played a final in melbourne.....

Richmond/Carlton/Brisbane - can all mathematically make it, carlton has good enough players to worry the good sides but are down on confidence and are poorly coached, Richmond have a soft draw so if they string a few could scrape in...

So there are still a load of sides in contention but probably only a small handfull that are serious flag hopes. So as was suggested earler in the year the cream is rising.

Collingwood & Hawthorn look fairly good things, the other teams with injuries would need a run of luck to make a run at them.

 

[Smokin]

So there are still a load of sides in contention but probably only a small handfull that are serious flag hopes. So as was suggested earler in the year the cream is rising.

Collingwood & Hawthorn look fairly good things, the other teams with injuries would need a run of luck to make a run at them.

Really? Im seeing it the other way.

The longer its going, it is clear that there is no standout team and injury and form is the factor right now.

Everyone seems to be giving Hawthorn (and to a lesser extent Collingwood) this clear above the rest treatment, but I just dont see it at all. Hawthorn have put in some absolutely appalling performances this season and Collingwood can be seriously exposed on the outside.

West Coast and Collingwood have a lot of outs, like us - but really how many of them are going to come back and make an impact this season?

Sydney going very well, but hardly unbeatable. I have no idea where to rate Adelaide, to be honest I see a solid team looking great against crap not sure against the top.

Geelong look a bit cooked to me, thats about the only team in my head I think cant win it, as funny as it sounds. Not sure too many teams would want to be playing Norf if the finals were this week. They could easily be horribly out of form in a month though.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

wouldnt be much use if they played a final in melbourne...

They've actually been pretty handy in Melbourne this year.

 

[TheDon35]

Top 4 is the key. The Melbourne game....

I'd be happy going to Sydney as the under dog. Happy enough going to Adelaide as the under dog. West Coast have to have a question mark against them given their injuries. Lucky to get away with the win against North.

I'm not overly keen to play the Pies or Hawks in the first week of the finals.

ultimately though, any of these games are nothing to loose games. We aren't expected to be there yet, have had a shocking run of injuries and are building a super list for next year and beyond.

Finish 5th or 6th and all of a sudden there's pressure on, some expectation to win and a big chance of another first week exit. Two seasons with two first week finals exits can be problematic moving forward as a monkey may start to develop.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

6 teams can win it from here. It's all about timing with injuries and form.

 

[Essendonia]

This week has top 8 teams ALL playing top 8 teams. Will reveal a little bit more about the character of those teams.

 

[VelvetSledge]

This week has top 8 teams ALL playing top 8 teams. Will reveal a little bit more about the character of those teams.

This is going to either be a fantastic weekend of football or a horrendously boring slugfest.

 

[fishardansin]

I like your summary Howard. No one is standing out. All of the top 6 are possible but there are more than one good argument against each of them why they wont win it.

I echo the sentiments that form and injuries leading up to and in the finals is where it will be won.

I will say this though. If Cloke can regain his best form then Collingwood will be clear favorites. Ball was a big loss but Beam's form has covered that. Some clever drafting over the last two seasons sees them approaching the depth they had two years ago. I still can't see Sydney or Adelaide beating a top side at the G. West Coast's injuries just seem to get worse and worse and I think it is just a cursed year for them, credit for fighting it out this far though. Hawthorn do have the cattle that can tear any side apart if it all clicks. I still think their best 22 is a bit patchy though relying on stodgy inside mids, damaging but flakey outside mids/flankers, Franklin and Cyril brilliance up forward (rather than a reliable system) against the best sides and low quality key backs or Gibbson playing two divisions above his size.

As an Essendon supporter I'm not even expecting us to make the top 4, let alone win the flag. I still remain hopeful but am concerned how easily Sydney (for the first half) and the Saints both stopped our outside run and then cut us up with theirs. If we can keep the injuries to a minumum from here on in all our major players that are out are due back this season in time to get a run at it before the finals. Of course Hibberd, Hurley and Zaka could be down for the rest of the season considering injuries. I need not say that if Watson goes down we'll struggle to win any final let alone go all the way.

Next three weeks are massive and I'm hopeful we can win both at Docklands. With current form we should almost go in favorites against the Cats. Hawks without Buddy become a different prospect. Him missing and Hardingham and Baguely being able to do a good job on Cyril they don't have anyone I'm afraid of. I get the feeling they'll have to play Gibson on Crameri and that should tie him up enough to give other forwards a better run at it. The games against Freo and Port away give me a glimer of hope there but still will go in massive under dogs. If they play well and get their confidence up we'll have little hope.

Then 3 games against teams potentially playing for a finals berth and deep hatred of us. North will be the biggest challenge and if they can structure up like Sydney and Saints did and combine it with their blistering ball movement would be very confident of beating us. Carlton will be wanting revenge and Tigers also capable of upsetting us.

Collingwood hopefully take round 23 this year with the same level of interest as they did last year!!

Essendon will probably finish around 6th, pretty hard to go much lower. There is a 0.01% chance that we can finish on top by going undefeated. Which is still better than 0% for all teams outside the top 6!!

No matter what combination I use for possible outcomes there will be less than 3 games seperating 1st from 6th. The kicking for goal in Melbourne and Sydney games and Blairs "goal" might be all the difference come the end of the year!!

 

[VelvetSledge]

We all know Essendon is the best team ever and will win all of our remaining games by at least 7 goals though.

Every.
Single.
One.

 

[fishardansin]

We are capable of winning every game of the season. With the oppostion coming up losing every single one is also possible.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Collingwood hopefully take round 23 this year with the same level of interest as they did last year!!

What? Smash Fremantle by 80 points?
.