Selections - Elimination Final v Essendon

[Vader]

True but i wouldn't think it's all that uncommon...and we are perfectly set up for it.

2008 - top 4 all made the Prelim Finals
2007 - Collingwood made it from 6th (sending West Coast out in straight sets)
2006 - top 4 all made the PF
2005 - top 4 all made the PF
2004 - top 4 all made the PF
2003 - top 4 all made the PF
2002 - top 4 all made the PF
2001 - Hawthorn made it from 6th (sending Port out in straight sets)
2000 - top 4 all made the PF

So.. it's been done twice in 9 years, both times by the team which finished 6th. I would describe that as being "uncommon".

 

[pext]

2008 - top 4 all made the Prelim Finals
2007 - Collingwood made it from 6th (sending West Coast out in straight sets)
2006 - top 4 all made the PF
2005 - top 4 all made the PF
2004 - top 4 all made the PF
2003 - top 4 all made the PF
2002 - top 4 all made the PF
2001 - Hawthorn made it from 6th (sending Port out in straight sets)
2000 - top 4 all made the PF

So.. it's been done twice in 9 years, both times by the team which finished 6th. I would describe that as being "uncommon".

A population of nine is nowhere near large enough to draw conclusions from! We can win the whole damn thing from fifth! Go Crows!

 

[Vader]

A population of nine is nowhere near large enough to draw conclusions from! We can win the whole damn thing from fifth! Go Crows!

It's not huge, but it's all we've got. The AFL used a different final 8 system before that time, one which allowed us to win the flag from 5th despite getting belted in the first week of the finals.

 

[Crow-mo]

Selection wise drop reilly burton to a wing walker to FF lets see how he is on big games. I reckon he'll rise to the big stage

 

[Willis]

Selection wise drop reilly burton to a wing walker to FF lets see how he is on big games. I reckon he'll rise to the big stage

Can't wait to see his 1 handball 1 marks 0.1 goals from 30% gametime on the BIG STAGE!

 

[Ben the Gooner]

They are quick on a smaller ground ala Etihad, but the larger grounds and they really do struggle. Look at both their games in Perth this year.

I think that's more to do with us struggling interstate (Sydney in Sydney being the only win from 5 attempts). On the MCG we're 2 from 2 v Carlton )), 1 from 2 v Collingwood, 1 from 2 v Richmond o), .5 from 1 v Brisbane, and 1 from 1 v Hawthorn, making us 6.5/9 or 72% which is much better than our 48% W/L record overall.

From our point of view, three suspensions and a possible injury will mean that no one is omitted as four changes is really too much as it is going into a final.

Lloyd, Ryder and Lonergan will all miss after accepting their suspensions (interestingly in the case of Ryder and Lonergan IMO), and Bellchambers is the only definite in. I'd suspect that Quinn and Skipworth (remember him? A lot of our fans seem to have forgotten him) will replace Lloyd and Lonergan. We were too tall anyway for Saturday's game, so a small for Lloyd won't make a huge difference. McVeigh is also a chance to miss, as he has a small fracture in his hand (or something along those lines - it's not an injury I've seen before), and hopefully Reimers or Dempsey can get up from injury to replace him if necessary. If not, I'd suspect Leroy Jetta, or even Jay Nash according to some rumours on our board, will get a lucky call up which neither really deserve.

Hurley will play CHF and Neagle FF, so there'll be no surprises there.

At the other end, I suspect Pears will take Porplyzia (if McVeigh is out) and Fletcher Tippett. Slattery has played on Burton before to good effect, so I'd suspect that if McVeigh plays, Pears will take someone like Hentschel. McPhee and Lovett-Murray will play down back, on the wing and up forward, and will take any additional height (e.g. resting ruckman), and will probably be the sweepers as well.

In the middle, hopefully Knighter has learnt the lessons from the last time we played you and sends Welsh straight to Edwards. Dyson has been playing a somewhat defensive role for us this year, and I'd send him to van Berlo, personally, but not having seen you play much in the second half of the year, there may be another option who needs tagging before him (Vince? Goodwin?). Watson, Stanton and Lovett are the three from our side who need some close attention, and in that order. Watson is best matched up on by a tagger who has an offensive side to his game, so that Watto's lack of pace can be exploited. Stanton tends to struggle under a close tag and play very well when left alone (see Saturday's game), so is the best bet for a close-checking, annoying type tagger. Lovett has too much potential to be damaging to be ignored.

Overall, from our point of view, we need a couple of things to happen to be a chance to win:

We need Watson to fire, especially in the absence of Ryder, Hille and Laycock. We literally have our fourth and fifth choice ruckmen playing, and our next choice is Christian Bock (Nathan's brother) who's about 6 metres tall and weighs about 40kg. If Watto gets a lot of first possession and starts feeding the ball to the likes of Stanton, Lovett, Dyson, Lovett-Murray and Prismall, we can put on 3 or 4 goals in as many minutes. Conversely, with Lonergan out, a lot falls on to Watson's shoulders.

We need our forwardline structure to work. That means Monfries pushing up the ground and collecting a lot of marks, and hopefully chipping in with 3 goals. That means Neagle and Hurley not getting in each others' way (not an issue from the way they've handled the forwardline by themselves in the latter half of the year) and hopefully kicking 7+ between them. That means Jetta or Quinn, and Winderlich providing a good option when we enter the 50.

We need our backline to function in a way that allows Fletcher and McPhee to zone off and provide cover for our other defenders. If someone starts to get a lot of the ball and starts to kick goals, then we could be in a bit of strife.

Overall, we certainly aren't going to be a pushover, but we face an uphill battle if we want to win. I don't think anyone can expect us to win, and you should win comfortably. I'm just hoping that we put up a good fight, and play with a finals intensity for the entire four quarters. As my sig shows, I wasn't expecting to win a final this year, and anything from here on in is a bonus.

I'd say good luck, but I hope you have rotten luck and we get up.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Can't wait to see his 1 handball 1 marks 0.1 goals from 30% gametime on the BIG STAGE!

Errr... I think crow-mo was taking the piss.

 

[pext]

It's not huge, but it's all we've got. The AFL used a different final 8 system before that time, one which allowed us to win the flag from 5th despite getting belted in the first week of the finals.

Vader, repeat after me.... "WE CAN WIN THIS THING!"

I've got a good feeling about this group!

 

[pext]

I think that's more to do with us struggling interstate (Sydney in Sydney being the only win from 5 attempts). On the MCG we're 2 from 2 v Carlton )), 1 from 2 v Collingwood, 1 from 2 v Richmond o), .5 from 1 v Brisbane, and 1 from 1 v Hawthorn, making us 6.5/9 or 72% which is much better than our 48% W/L record overall.

From our point of view, three suspensions and a possible injury will mean that no one is omitted as four changes is really too much as it is going into a final.

Lloyd, Ryder and Lonergan will all miss after accepting their suspensions (interestingly in the case of Ryder and Lonergan IMO), and Bellchambers is the only definite in. I'd suspect that Quinn and Skipworth (remember him? A lot of our fans seem to have forgotten him) will replace Lloyd and Lonergan. We were too tall anyway for Saturday's game, so a small for Lloyd won't make a huge difference. McVeigh is also a chance to miss, as he has a small fracture in his hand (or something along those lines - it's not an injury I've seen before), and hopefully Reimers or Dempsey can get up from injury to replace him if necessary. If not, I'd suspect Leroy Jetta, or even Jay Nash according to some rumours on our board, will get a lucky call up which neither really deserve.

Hurley will play CHF and Neagle FF, so there'll be no surprises there.

At the other end, I suspect Pears will take Porplyzia (if McVeigh is out) and Fletcher Tippett. Slattery has played on Burton before to good effect, so I'd suspect that if McVeigh plays, Pears will take someone like Hentschel. McPhee and Lovett-Murray will play down back, on the wing and up forward, and will take any additional height (e.g. resting ruckman), and will probably be the sweepers as well.

In the middle, hopefully Knighter has learnt the lessons from the last time we played you and sends Welsh straight to Edwards. Dyson has been playing a somewhat defensive role for us this year, and I'd send him to van Berlo, personally, but not having seen you play much in the second half of the year, there may be another option who needs tagging before him (Vince? Goodwin?). Watson, Stanton and Lovett are the three from our side who need some close attention, and in that order. Watson is best matched up on by a tagger who has an offensive side to his game, so that Watto's lack of pace can be exploited. Stanton tends to struggle under a close tag and play very well when left alone (see Saturday's game), so is the best bet for a close-checking, annoying type tagger. Lovett has too much potential to be damaging to be ignored.

Overall, from our point of view, we need a couple of things to happen to be a chance to win:

We need Watson to fire, especially in the absence of Ryder, Hille and Laycock. We literally have our fourth and fifth choice ruckmen playing, and our next choice is Christian Bock (Nathan's brother) who's about 6 metres tall and weighs about 40kg. If Watto gets a lot of first possession and starts feeding the ball to the likes of Stanton, Lovett, Dyson, Lovett-Murray and Prismall, we can put on 3 or 4 goals in as many minutes. Conversely, with Lonergan out, a lot falls on to Watson's shoulders.

We need our forwardline structure to work. That means Monfries pushing up the ground and collecting a lot of marks, and hopefully chipping in with 3 goals. That means Neagle and Hurley not getting in each others' way (not an issue from the way they've handled the forwardline by themselves in the latter half of the year) and hopefully kicking 7+ between them. That means Jetta or Quinn, and Winderlich providing a good option when we enter the 50.

We need our backline to function in a way that allows Fletcher and McPhee to zone off and provide cover for our other defenders. If someone starts to get a lot of the ball and starts to kick goals, then we could be in a bit of strife.

Overall, we certainly aren't going to be a pushover, but we face an uphill battle if we want to win. I don't think anyone can expect us to win, and you should win comfortably. I'm just hoping that we put up a good fight, and play with a finals intensity for the entire four quarters. As my sig shows, I wasn't expecting to win a final this year, and anything from here on in is a bonus.

I'd say good luck, but I hope you have rotten luck and we get up.

Cheers, some nice insight there.

I agree that the bombers reckon they're a chance here and for good reason. If Jobe can win the clearances and release the runners..... they beat St Kilda so why not us?

Our boys will need to be at the top of their game, but I back them.We've been very consistent this year which gives me faith.

 

[crowman86]

Bugger all difference in ground size.

Etihad Stadium ( Formerly Telstra Dome)
City: Melbourne
Address: 740 Bourke St, Docklands, Vic, 3008
Capacity: 53,355
Ground dimensions: 159.5 metres x 128.8 metres

AAMI Stadium
City: Adelaide
Address: Turner Dve, West Lakes, SA 5021
Capacity: 51,515
Ground dimensions: 165 metres x 133 metres

 

[Crow-mo]

Can't wait to see his 1 handball 1 marks 0.1 goals from 30% gametime on the BIG STAGE!

Iam sure you can't. I presume you know those are not his career highs and I presume you're not saying he's a dud. So what are you blathering on about?

 

[Ad76]

It's not huge, but it's all we've got. The AFL used a different final 8 system before that time, one which allowed us to win the flag from 5th despite getting belted in the first week of the finals.

I was at that game (Melbourne flogged us) and remember saying on the way back to the hotel that we didnt deserve to play the next week even if the games fell our way.

A couple of weeks later it was all forgotten

 

[marvin]

I don't think I've seen this confirmed....but I take it Shirley's definitely unavailable this week?

 

[TheLeftFist8]

It's not a done deal yet but with the encouraging news of Bock's possible return, i would select the team as below (with Bock playing ~60%TOG). No change if Bock unavailable.

B: Johncock, Rutten, Stevens
HB: Goodwin, Bock, Doughty
C: Mackay, Vince, Symes
HF: Knights, Tippett, Porplyzia
F: Burton, Hentschel, Dangerfield
1R: Maric, van Berlo, Thompson
I: Sellar, Otten, McLeod, Edwards

E: Reilly, Sloane, Davis

I'd like to make 2 points...

Firstly, some will claim that line-up is 'too tall' despite the fact that Bock is just as athletic and probably faster than Reilly! Otten becomes the 3rd running player on the bench and essentially our structure remains the same. If their forward line a short, mobile one then Otten goes back and Stevens becomes a midfielder. Of our whole 22, the only blokes you would suggest lack the ability to cover a lot of ground/do a heap of running are Rutten, Hentschel, Maric and to a lesser degree Tippett and Sellar. Still, even those guys do a good amount of running so i certainly don't feel this selection leavesus any more vulnerable to the running Bombers.

Secondly, i am very happy with the versatility and quality (though some inexperienced) of our depth leading into September!

'Smalls': taller utility=Reilly; defender/midfield=Sloane; forward/midfield=Douglas; defensive midfielder (when fit)=Shirley.

'Talls': ruck=Moran; defender/(and forward)=Davis; forward=Walker.

 

[beartoo]

Errr... I think crow-mo was taking the piss.

Either that or losing the plot.

 

[Vader]

Vader, repeat after me.... "WE CAN WIN THIS THING!"

I've got a good feeling about this group!

We CAN win this thing. We'll just need to re-write history to do it. That said, records are made to be broken!

 

[RealSlimShady]

If Bock ready: Hentschel out, Bock in. See you next year Hentschel, now that we know you can still play a little, you can have Stevens spot next year.

Vader already stated the pecking order for smalls which I agree with.

Hentschel out... turn it up!

 

[betterthanu]

HF: Knights, Tippett, Porplyzia
F: Burton, Hentschel, Dangerfield

*Drools*

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Just listening to the injury update on 5AA tonight and I think I've got a crackpot theory that is (for once) on the money.

That is that Stevens is going to be dropped this week if Bock comes up.

The reason I think this is that Stevens was listed by the Crows as being troubled by a 'back injury' from a collision during the Carlton game. I can't remember any specific instances during the season but I have the impression that when a difficult selection is looming and there is the chance that a player completely undeserving of being dropped is about to be squeezed out of the team, this is the AFC's way of softening the blow. And immunising themselves from extra outside scrutiny/criticism they might cop should we lose.

At this stage of the year we could say that any player is slightly troubled by something. Most likely players have multiple sore spots. It is a luxury when to reveal one of these hidden ailments and I think we are being very selective.

This is their modus operandi. Throw out an injury rumour so that when said player is dropped, no one knows that they are. Just like Mick Malthouse tried with John Worsfold, semi final 1998. But I'm on to them!

 

[jenny61_99]

Your a clever little man aren't ya!?? Good theory... and not a bad one either.

 

[Allefgib]

Just listening to the injury update on 5AA tonight and I think I've got a crackpot theory that is (for once) on the money.

That is that Stevens is going to be dropped this week if Bock comes up.

The reason I think this is that Stevens was listed by the Crows as being troubled by a 'back injury' from a collision during the Carlton game. I can't remember any specific instances during the season but I have the impression that when a difficult selection is looming and there is the chance that a player completely undeserving of being dropped is about to be squeezed out of the team, this is the AFC's way of softening the blow. And immunising themselves from extra outside scrutiny/criticism they might cop should we lose.

At this stage of the year we could say that any player is slightly troubled by something. Most likely players have multiple sore spots. It is a luxury when to reveal one of these hidden ailments and I think we are being very selective.

This is their modus operandi. Throw out an injury rumour so that when said player is dropped, no one knows that they are. Just like Mick Malthouse tried with John Worsfold, semi final 1998. But I'm on to them!

I reckon your bang on mate.

I've thought since last week if Bock comes in, Stevens goes out.

Trent has shown himself able to go back when required. Unfortunately that leaves Stevens in danger of losing his 'swingman' value when everyone is fit and healthy.

 

[moogerfooger]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Bock will be in the named side with Stevens omitted, only for Bock to be a late withdrawal to be replaced by Stevens

 

[Crow-mo]

Either that or losing the plot.

why?

 

[Jack McKraken]

Hey all,

I was listening to MMM on the way into work this morning, and someone called in to their Rumourfile segment saying that Bernard V won't be playing this week. Source was apparently a good mate of Bernard's and the reason was due to shoulder problems, he was no chance of lining up.

I hope this is nothing more than trolling. Kym Dillon confirmed that he had seen Bernie getting some work done on his shoulders but thought he was a certainty to line up.

 

[sbenno]

Thats interesting, cos on they mentioned shoulder strapping on the news the other night, but JR said Bernard was 100% to play. Interesting...