Seriously When Will Carlton Threaten the top 8?

[Pav for AA]

Personally, I cant see them coming close to the top 8 for another five years, the current recycled players would need to play out of there skin to have ne chance of missing a second spoon.

The loss of Campo will hurt. Kids from this years draft will need 2 or more years, and even then they will be maturing, things just dont seem to bright for the blue baggers, I reckon 2010 come 2011 will be the time when we see some form of revival of the old Navy Blues? Thoughts

 

[zero]

well, i dont know, they could threaten the top 8 in the next couple of years, with a bit of luck. maybe even 2006 if they get REALLY lucky, they improve ALOT, a few of their duds turn out to be OK and a few other teams fall off the wagon

probably not though. and they are a realistic 5 years from being a flag chance

 

[Da Bull]

Personally, I cant see them coming close to the top 8 for another five years, the current recycled players would need to play out of there skin to have ne chance of missing a second spoon.

The loss of Campo will hurt. Kids from this years draft will need 2 or more years, and even then they will be maturing, things just dont seem to bright for the blue baggers, I reckon 2010 come 2011 will be the time when we see some form of revival of the old Navy Blues? Thoughts

Trust me, the loss of Campo aint gunna hurt. Have you seen the guy play the last 2 years.

We are certainly a long way off. No arguments here.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

With pretty much the same list we have now, we threatened the top 8 in 2004, ultimately falling short by just two games. Goes to show that you don't need a great list to scrape into the 8, just a bit of luck. Probably a good argument for reducing the top 8 to a top 5 or 6 again.

 

[Underdog]

true...besides, similar things were being said about Adelaide at the start of last season...you just never know

 

[RedLegs#5]

What's a Carlton?

 

[Funkalicous]

5 years? You should get a medal if that prediction comes true.

Honestly, I don't know how or why people keep coming up with short-sighted predictions. Time and time again they are proven wrong. *sigh*

 

[aj1981]

With pretty much the same list we have now, we threatened the top 8 in 2004, ultimately falling short by just two games. Goes to show that you don't need a great list to scrape into the 8, just a bit of luck. Probably a good argument for reducing the top 8 to a top 5 or 6 again.

I agree with you ODN, while I can't see the Blues making the top 8 in 2006, it's feasible that 11 wins could scrape you in, which would mean that a team wouldn't have to play particularly well to be able to snag one of the last positions in the 8. Granted, Carlton would need to improve massively on this year's performance to get to 11 wins, but it's definitely not beyond the realm of possibility.

 

[Johnson#26]

As its been said, you just never know, but, being realistic (sorry Blue fans), it could well be 2008 that the boys from Optus can drag themselves out of the mire. It would be great for the competition to see them make the eight and beyond, but it will take time.

 

[btdg]

Carlton won't make the finals next year. Other than that, I don't think predictions are really possible more than 2 years in advance because of how quickly things can change in the AFL.

If the right decisions are made, the coach connects, and everything goes smoothly, then Carlton could make finals in 2007 or 2008 - as could any of the bottom 4 teams from last year. If more poor decisions are made, and the players don't develop, etc; it could be a lot longer. 4-5 years seems a good basis for expectations though - and a good middle-to-long term horizon in which to plan. From where we are now, if we aren't competitive by that stage, questions need to be asked. If we are competitive faster, we've done a good job...

 

[ARDENSTREETforever]

They might get close to the top 8 in 2008, that is after they have been relegated to the VFL.

 

[mjonc]

Within five years, every club will have been in the 8. That is how the system works Pav.

My prediction 2 years, by half our players rediscovering the 2004 form we will make it in 2006, well so my money says anyway.

 

[bibi01]

Personally, I cant see them coming close to the top 8 for another five years, the current recycled players would need to play out of there skin to have ne chance of missing a second spoon.

The loss of Campo will hurt. Kids from this years draft will need 2 or more years, and even then they will be maturing, things just dont seem to bright for the blue baggers, I reckon 2010 come 2011 will be the time when we see some form of revival of the old Navy Blues? Thoughts

why would the loss of campo hurt so much?

we had him for 2005 season and we finished 16th
campo leaving provides an opportunity for another player like walker to get more game time
if campo was so influential why isn't there 15 clubs knocking down the door wanting him.

realistically carlton have 2 more years in the bottom 8 and 2008 should be the year they should be pushing for top 8

what you don't seem to realise is we already have young kids who are developing and had at least 2 years in the system- waite, simpson, walker etc

the league is set up sp all teams get their window of opportunity to play finals, carlton have spent a longer period there cause of penalties, the effect of this penalties is becoming less and less

2005 was year 1 of carlton's rebuilding process

 

[Ants]

Ok, since we're meant to be serious.

Carlton potentially has a fantastic forward line. If players like Fevola, Whitnall, Lappin, Waite, Fisher, Betts and Setanta play as expected (or they should), Pagan can create a flexible, strong marking and dangerous forward line.

Midfield is a concern. The best two players are Stevens and Koutoufides, and how long can Kouta still be a force? Camporeale came 4th in the league for kicks (I think), so he must be some type of loss.
I don't know Carlton's young players, but they probably need at least 3 to 5 of players like Bentick, Simpson, Walker, Russell, this year's picks, any other youngsters, to step up and be good to top midfielders.

Ruck is a concern. French is alright, but nothing special. And there's not much depth after him, with Bryan and De Luca still with "potential" tags.

Defence is a horror. After Thornton, do you have a single other KP defender?

I think if Carlton plays well, it is possible to make the finals in 06 or 07, mostly by beating bottom eight sides. With that forward line, if the midfield has an alright day they should convert pretty well. But I don't think Carlton will be a force, and it would actually hurt them (like in 04) by meaning they would have worse draft picks.
Realistically, I think Carlton will make the eight in the next three years, but won't be a presence in the eight until at least 2008. In my view, there are just too many gaps to fill in their list for them to be fixed before then.

 

[Joffaboy]

5 years? You should get a medal if that prediction comes true.

Honestly, I don't know how or why people keep coming up with short-sighted predictions. Time and time again they are proven wrong. *sigh*

Spot on Funky. 5 years ago the Saints won two games. They have been in the finals the past two seasons and look like being their for some time.

5 years is a hell of a long time for a footy team to mature.

Carlton could reach the finals is two-three years.

 

[Vader]

Spot on Funky. 5 years ago the Saints won two games. They have been in the finals the past two seasons and look like being their for some time.

5 years is a hell of a long time for a footy team to mature.

Carlton could reach the finals is two-three years.

St Kilda were in a much better position than Carlton though.

Firstly, Carlton's veterans are older (and less effective) than the St Kilda ones were (Harvey is still playing 5 years on). Essentially, St Kilda had a better "core" of players when bottoming out than Carlton do.

Secondly, St Kilda spent three years raiding the top of the draft. This is Carlton's first year doing so (courtesy of the salary cap draft penalties).

Thirdly, going on recent history, St Kilda's recruiting section leave Carlton's for dead. As St Kilda fans are so keen to point out, not all of their stars came with #1 or #2 draft selections (though a significan proportion did). St Kilda have drafted VERY well in recent years, Carlton have drafted very poorly.

To be completely honest, I don't think Carlton have hit bottom yet. I expect 2006 to be even worse, and 2007 to be on par with 2005. I would be surprised if they make the eight before 2009 - maybe even 2010.

2004 was a false dawn for Carlton fans. They bought in a whole heap of retreads. Like most retreads, they trained the house down over the off season in a desperate attempt to prove that Carlton were right (and their previous teams wrong) in giving them another chance. Sadly (for Carlton) 2005 was when reality set in, and those retreads showed why their previous teams were so keen to be rid of them. Now, I'm not criticising Pagan for taking that path - he didn't have many options given that they were effectively barred from the draft. Just saying that Carlton fans shouldn't expect miracles in the near future.

Let's face it - there are probably only 5 or 6 players on Carlton's list who would make the starting 22 in any team presently in the top-8. They have to rebuild the whole list from the ground up. These things take time, and Carlton fans will need to be patient.

 

[HBF]

I think 2-3 years is a realistic time frame for Carlton to contest finals again. As for being a premiership threat, that's still a way off.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

I think 2-3 years is a realistic time frame for Carlton to contest finals again. As for being a premiership threat, that's still a way off.

Agreed,
lately have been drafting for future ie: Hartlett, Raso, Blackwell, Russell, O'Hailphin all young bodies,
but if Simpson is any indication, and he has taken a couple of years,
a bit of patience needed.

Seem to be on the right track.

Lets face it, can't be any worse than previous years.

 

[parrot]

Personally, I cant see them coming close to the top 8 ........ Thoughts

The Blues have the youngest list in the comp, and are gathering some impressive talent. Badly lacking experience and consistency, but on their day they have the talent to beat anyone as a maxed-out Weagles side found out earlier in the year. Further talent top-ups via the draft just make things even better for the Blues. Hard to see them making a serious impact on the top-8 in 2006, but an 8th finish is always a possibility given the impressive young talent they have. A young list with huge upside. Exciting times ahead for Blues fans.

 

[Underdog]

every rebuilding club says that

 

[carn_the_cattas]

The Blues didn't have many injuries in 2005 unlike other teams like St Kilda & Geelong who made the eight.

I think they will start challenging for the eight in about 15 - 20 when the list is completely different to what it is now

 

[monfries_young-gun]

I dont think i will live to see the day. Maybe next century??

 

[Lukesta63]

Unfortunately I don't share some of the optimism here.We have a "potentially" good forward line,a midfield on the down hill slide,and NO defence. Yes the boys can pull one out of their ass occassionally,but when we lose we're really crap!
Next season will be the revelation as to where the young blokes are at,otherwise I predict a very long time in the wilderness!

 

[Bloods]

They might get close to the top 8 in 2008, that is after they have been relegated to the VFL.

What a comedian.

 

[Orangewhip]

every rebuilding club says that

Well at least Carlton admits it's rebuilding these days...