Draft Watcher Smythe's FINAL FIRST ROUND PHANTOM PAGE 11

Status
Not open for further replies.
FINAL FIRST ROUND PHANTOM
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
ROUND ONE - Smythe

1. WB - Jamara Ugle-Hagen - Bid matched
2. Adelaide - Riley Thilthorpe
3. North Melbourne - Elijah Hollands
4. Sydney - Denver Grainger-Barras
5. Hawthorn - Logan McDonald
6. Gold Coast - Will Phillips
7. Essendon - Zach Reid
8. Sydney - Braeden Campbell - Bid Matched
9. Essendon - Archie Perkins
10. Collingwood - Reef McInness - Bid Matched
11. Essendon - Tanner Bruhn
12. Port Adelaide - Lachlan Jones - Bid Matched
13. Adelaide - Tom Powell
14. GWS - Brayden Cook
15. North Melbourne - Nik Cox
16. Fremantle - Oliver Henry
17. GWS - Heath Chapman
18. GWS - Luke Pedlar
19. Collingwood - Bailey Laurie
20. Adelaide - Nathan O’Driscoll
21. Melbourne - Jack Carroll
22. Melbourne - Max Holmes
23. Sydney - Errol Gulden - Bid Matched
24. Brisbane - Blake Coleman - Bid matched
25. GWS - Finlay Macrae
26. Hawthorn - Connor Downie - Bid Matched
27. St Kilda - Conor Stone

Tigers and Crows to strike a deal on pick swaps late first round
 
Nov 23, 2015
11,654
17,070
AFL Club
GWS
Yeah I don't understand the points. Was just am example of what Hawthorn could attempt to do to give themselves a higher selection.
Points are essentially irrelevant - they really come into play when a team is looking to match a bid on a FS/academy kid, which GWS doesn't need this year. You might get two later picks for an earlier pick if a team needs to draft a lot of players - say Adelaide or North Melbourne as broad examples. But Adelaide is not a factor this year, as they have plenty of picks including late picks to cover their several NGA options. Norths still want quality more than quantity, so I cannot see them doing something like this.

Hawks best chances would be to roll back with a swap with Essendon (e.g. 4 & 24 for 7 & 8) to allow Essendon to get one of the really good draftees this year while Hawks get 2 of the next level down; or GWS (e.g. 4 for 10 & 13) - except I don't think Hawks will want to give up that early pick. The only other viable swap would be using say next year's second pick, for example 24 plus next year's second for maybe a Collingwood pick such as #16 (they'd want to keep #14 to get ahead of a McInnes bid match, but the #24 would pay for him, plus the premium of next year's second round (which would help match Daicos next year).
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
26,156
32,473
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
Yeah I don't understand the points. Was just am example of what Hawthorn could attempt to do to give themselves a higher selection.
You’ll need to give up an early second round pick and a future second round pick to get into the later half of this years first round.
 
Friday Night's Phantom Run - This week I have Rounds 1 and 2
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
A little bit of movement, plus the second round included as well. Next Friday I will include Rounds 3 and 4 with any update to Rounds 1 and 2.

ROUND ONE

1 -:adelaide: Thilthorpe
2 - :north: McDonald
3- :bulldogs: Ugle-Hagen - Bid Matched
4 - :sydney:Grainger-Barras
5 - :hawthorn:Hollands
6 - :goldcoast: Phillips
7 - :essendon:Cox
8 - :essendon:Perkins
9 - :port:Jones - Bid Matched
10 - :sydney:Campbell - Bid Matched
11 - :essendon:Bruhn
12 - :adelaide: O'Driscoll
13 - :gws:Reid
14 - :north: Chapman
15 - :freo: Carroll
16 - :gws:Macrae
17 - :collingwood: Henry
18 - :gws:Powell
19 - :collingwood: Ford
20 - :richmond: Cook
21 - :collingwood:McInness - Bid Matched
22 - :melbourne:Poulter
23 - :freo: B.Walker - Bid Matched
24 - :melbourne:Winder
25 - :gws:Ginnivan
26 - :stkilda:Heath


ROUND TWO

27 - :adelaide: Berry
28 - :adelaide: Trew
29 - :hawthorn:Laurie
30 - :brisbane:Maher
31 - :melbourne:Collins
32 - :gws:Neale
33 - :north: Davis
34 - :sydney:Gulden - Bid Matched
35 - :brisbane:Coleman - Bid Matched

36 - :freo: Western - Bid Matched
37 - :carlton: Mitchell
38 - :richmond: Kolar
39 - :carlton: Callow
40 - :essendon:Brand - Bid Matched
41 - :adelaide: Borlase - Bid Matched
42 - :north: P.Walker
 
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
If Essendon legitimately want either Jones or Campbell they would bid at 7, even if they rate Cox/Perkins higher, as it makes it harder to match but doesn't impact who they can otherwise pick.
I would rather take who I wanted than gamble. I have them this order because I believe they will take what they want and rate higher, earlier, then with that third pick have a crack at the others, if they land one, great, but if they don’t they have the next pick for whoever they want or rate next best. If they rate Jones and Campbell higher then sure go for it, but if you rate the others higher why would you gamble missing out. It’s neither here nor there but with 3 early picks (currently) they cannot go wrong.
 
Apr 1, 2008
14,748
17,336
NASA
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg
I would rather take who I wanted than gamble. I have them this order because I believe they will take what they want and rate higher, earlier, then with that third pick have a crack at the others, if they land one, great, but if they don’t they have the next pick for whoever they want or rate next best. If they rate Jones and Campbell higher then sure go for it, but if you rate the others higher why would you gamble missing out. It’s neither here nor there but with 3 early picks (currently) they cannot go wrong.
There is no gamble.

Even if they rate Cox and Perkins highest, they can bid on Jones, and if they get him, still guarantee those two by not bidding on Campbell. If they don't get Jones, they can then bid on Campbell, and still guarantee Cox and Perkins.

There is no risk of losing the players they want most, and higher odds of getting players being bid on.
 

Joose

Club Legend
Jul 23, 2019
1,493
3,987
AFL Club
Fremantle
If I were Freo I would not match any bid on Western above 50. Bloke is too small for AFL. In the situation above I would grab Callow or Kolar.
 

Joose

Club Legend
Jul 23, 2019
1,493
3,987
AFL Club
Fremantle
Small in what way? Height or build?
172cm. Not many players that small make it in the modern game. There is Caleb Daniel but he is an exceptional talent. Another 10 or so cm and he would have had 2 charlies by now.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
26,156
32,473
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
172cm. Not many players that small make it in the modern game. There is Caleb Daniel but he is an exceptional talent. Another 10 or so cm and he would have had 2 charlies by now.
Sorry I was thinking of Walker.
 
Dec 28, 2007
32,749
63,991
3121
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Richmond 2019 Premiers
\
172cm. Not many players that small make it in the modern game. There is Caleb Daniel but he is an exceptional talent. Another 10 or so cm and he would have had 2 charlies by now.
Liam Baker - 173cm
Shai Bolton - 175cm
Dion Prestia - 175cm

There are a few and 2-3 cm doesnt really make that much difference Dale weightman was only 170cm and KB 174cm
 

Joose

Club Legend
Jul 23, 2019
1,493
3,987
AFL Club
Fremantle
\

Liam Baker - 173cm
Shai Bolton - 175cm
Dion Prestia - 175cm

There are a few and 2-3 cm doesnt really make that much difference Dale weightman was only 170cm and KB 174cm
Fair point,, but still too small. Freo have plenty of smalls but only 1 dedicated KPF - Matt Taberner.

I have been arguing about this over on the Freo board so I should shut up about it, but in this draft there are some decent tall options in the 20 - 40 bracket ie Neale/Lord/Callow/McMahon/Lord/Kolar/Rosman/Treacy. If Freo dont grab at least 2 of them they should just about give up.

I would even reach for someone like Neale at their first pick.
 
Dec 28, 2007
32,749
63,991
3121
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Richmond 2019 Premiers
Fair point,, but still too small. Freo have plenty of smalls but only 1 dedicated KPF - Matt Taberner.

I have been arguing about this over on the Freo board so I should shut up about it, but in this draft there are some decent tall options in the 20 - 40 bracket ie Neale/Lord/Callow/McMahon/Lord/Kolar/Rosman/Treacy. If Freo dont grab at least 2 of them they should just about give up.

I would even reach for someone like Neale at their first pick.
You will find Richmond are in a similar position with probably the most amount of players 182 or less and whilst we have 2 tall fowards in Jack & Lynch jack is 32 years old and only Lynch as a tall foward on the list.

Richmond have won 3 flags with Lambert,Castagna,Rioli,graham,Bolton,Prestia,Baker etc
Sometimes you need to just take best available draft for talent and worry about need later
 
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
There is no gamble.

Even if they rate Cox and Perkins highest, they can bid on Jones, and if they get him, still guarantee those two by not bidding on Campbell. If they don't get Jones, they can then bid on Campbell, and still guarantee Cox and Perkins.

There is no risk of losing the players they want most, and higher odds of getting players being bid on.
I see your point and agree. But I’m pointing out who I think they will get and who they may bid on in my phantom draft, and not confessing to know who they rate higher or who they may bid on first before making their choices, merely who I think they will select and also perhaps bid on
 
Apr 1, 2008
14,748
17,336
NASA
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg
I see your point and agree. But I’m pointing out who I think they will get and who they may bid on in my phantom draft, and not confessing to know who they rate higher or who they may bid on first before making their choices, merely who I think they will select and also perhaps bid on
My point is more that it doesn't matter precisely where they rate Jones and Campbell - if they're bidding at any pick, bidding with the first pick is the only sensible choice.
 
Aug 9, 2019
37,994
64,900
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Panthers, GWV Rebels, Central Augusta
\

Liam Baker - 173cm
Shai Bolton - 175cm
Dion Prestia - 175cm

There are a few and 2-3 cm doesnt really make that much difference Dale weightman was only 170cm and KB 174cm
Eddie Betts went alright...
 

TheGong

Senior List
Sep 14, 2006
156
78
Wollongong
AFL Club
Sydney
My point is more that it doesn't matter precisely where they rate Jones and Campbell - if they're bidding at any pick, bidding with the first pick is the only sensible choice.

it depends on how Essendon rate the players. It they believe Jones and Campbell are better prospects then their first pick they should bid on them. If not then bid where they think their value lies.

Bidding early won’t cause too many issues for Port Adelaide or Sydney and Essendon will still get the players they want. It will however create bad blood against Essendon which may impact future dealings. There appears to be a practice amongst clubs that bids are made at the perceived value of the players so clubs don’t get too big a bargain. There is a belief that what goes around comes around if clubs start bidding to disadvantage other clubs.
 
Oct 14, 2016
2,442
2,994
AFL Club
Sydney
Swans are laughing if Campbell bid comes in behind Jones bid and that late. Will absolutely try to package picks to get up the order in that scenario
 
Oct 14, 2016
2,442
2,994
AFL Club
Sydney
it depends on how Essendon rate the players. It they believe Jones and Campbell are better prospects then their first pick they should bid on them. If not then bid where they think their value lies.

Bidding early won’t cause too many issues for Port Adelaide or Sydney and Essendon will still get the players they want. It will however create bad blood against Essendon which may impact future dealings. There appears to be a practice amongst clubs that bids are made at the perceived value of the players so clubs don’t get too big a bargain. There is a belief that what goes around comes around if clubs start bidding to disadvantage other clubs.

Unless you're GWS. No one bids early on their players, you need that goodwill to leverage out the homesick players a few years down the track
 
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
My point is more that it doesn't matter precisely where they rate Jones and Campbell - if they're bidding at any pick, bidding with the first pick is the only sensible choice.
I did say that I see your point and agree. But it can also go either way. Would you be happy with these picks at Essendon, who do you want to see them take? For me it is a toss up between Reid and Cox, but I chose Cox as I think he is a better back man and swing man than Reid. Both have big upside
 
Apr 1, 2008
14,748
17,336
NASA
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg
Would you be happy with these picks at Essendon, who do you want to see them take? For me it is a toss up between Reid and Cox, but I chose Cox as I think he is a better back man and swing man than Reid. Both have big upside
They do feel like best available from the open pool. I would be unhappy if Essendon wanted an academy player and didn't bid with their best chance of attaining them though.
 
Mar 26, 2017
1,375
2,063
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
No Jake Bowey there?
I have liked him since last year, great user of the ball and he may (on the night) go in the second round, but I DO have him going early third round in my phantom draft, rounds 3 and 4, which will come out next Friday. He is a hard one to place for me as the year has gone on. It depends on list needs I think, there are better half back/back pocket players in the draft I would take before him. He is still very light and his one on one game needs a lot of work and he is has a very uncontested style of play. He, I have no doubt, will be picked in the ND, as his skills are great, both hands and both feet and he is very athletic but there are teams that may have better options at earlier picks and the next 10-15 picks by teams may not at that stage want someone in his position but then teams picking after that may be at the stage were they want someone of his ilk and therefore go for him. It depends on where he falls on their board on the position they are picking at.
 

db26

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 26, 2007
5,956
13,885
Punt road
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Aston Villa,A-league
I think tigers go best available first pick and then needs later 2 picks if no bid on Rioli.Should be able to snare a developing forward if Baldwin and Carrlow gone like a Lord , Kolar or Theary.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back