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Swine Flu

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bit_pattern said:
Well, if that is the level at which you think (ie. that of an eleven year old) then, yes, i can see why you think that.

But if you actually listen to what experts at the WHO among others are actually saying then you tend to take a more nuanced approach.
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So how many did the swine flue pandemic of 76 kill then bit_pattern? You're the expert (help us all). About 250,000 to 500,000 people worldwide die each year from the flu but because the WHO have come out with their mass panic causing statements, we have to believe it???
 

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Bodicifer said:
So how many did the swine flue pandemic of 76 kill then bit_pattern? You're the expert (help us all). About 250,000 to 500,000 people worldwide die each year from the flu but because the WHO have come out with their mass panic causing statements, we have to believe it???
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And many thousands die each year from malaria! This is a beat-up - it's all about pharma-profit. Rummy would be rubbing his bloody hands together.......again:mad: If someone comes near me with a syringe full of Tamiflu I'll stick it in their eye!
 
Ruanaidh said:
Immuno-suppressants, drugs and climate control procedures used to lower temperatures, anti-biotics to control secondary infections, etc etc.
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Incorrect re what happens with the type of vicious flu we're discussing.

Standard treatment is Tamiflu or Relenza and serious hospital respirator gear. Some of the other stuff you mentioned is useful later if the respirator works. If it doesn't, you die.

Check out how they treat nasty cases of H5N1.
 
Ruanaidh said:
And many thousands die each year from malaria! This is a beat-up - it's all about pharma-profit. Rummy would be rubbing his bloody hands together.......again:mad: If someone comes near me with a syringe full of Tamiflu I'll stick it in their eye!
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You do understand that we are overdue to have a serious flu pandemic? (Obviously this may not be it)
 
Dry Rot said:
You do understand that we are overdue to have a serious flu pandemic? (Obviously this may not be it)
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I understand that we have Flu's that circle the globe each year that kill thousands, whilst many millions survive. In response to the Tamiflu statement I would posit that the widespread use of these neutered capsules of viruses could cause a dangerous leap in the mutation of live and potentially deadly viruses....but hey, in the end it will be a matter for people to do their own research and decide for themselves what to do....well maybe..... I am worried that egregious laws passed recently would allow some jackboot to forcibly aprehend me and stick some shite into my veins without my consent and/or isolate me for an unspecified period.

As for treatment:

Treatment of H5N1 Infection

Treatment of people with H5N1 infection is complex, technically challenging, resource intensive, and to-date, has been imposed on health care systems with minimal resources and limited infection control capabilities (WHO Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response [EPR], 2005a). Symptomatic H5N1 positive people have been primarily cared for in intensive care units to support respiratory and circulatory failure. Even with the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, steroids, and neuroaminidase inhibitors there has been a high mortality rate (Hein, Liem, et al., 2004).

It is hoped that if exposed and symptomatic individuals can be identified early, they can be treated with antiviral medication. Although amantadine (Symmetrel®), rimantadine (Flumadine®), oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and zanamivir (Relenza®) are all approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment and/or prevention of human influenza, H5N1 is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine (CDC, 2005d) due to wide spread use of these medications in the Asian poultry industry to prevent or treat avian influenza in birds. The current H5N1 infection has been sensitive to the neuraminidase inhibitors, oseltamirvir and zanamivir, and WHO, a consortium of Asian countries, and several developed nations are attempting to stockpile millions of doses of these drugs in case of a pandemic (WHO, CSR, 2005a). The patent for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) is held by one pharmaceutical company, Roche, who has indicated it has a backlog of orders extending to 2007 (Bulman, 2005). The estimated cost of a full five-day treatment of ten doses is over $90.00, a staggering amount if multiplied by the estimated number of people infected in a pandemic. Zanamivir, made by GlaxoSmithKline, an inhaled antiviral, may be harder for children and disabled people to use effectively, and so has not been stockpiled to date.

The effectiveness of these antiviral medications has not been tested in the field. It will be difficult to distribute antiviral medication to all exposed individuals unless there are quick regional quarantines because people can be contagious with influenza A for 2-6 days before symptoms develop. The stockpiling of these drugs may be for naught if the virus mutates before causing a pandemic. Unfortunately, the H5N1 virus has already shown signs of evolving resistance to the neuraminidase antiviral medications (The Writing Committee of the World Health Organization Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5, 2005). A resistant H5N1 virus was isolated from an infected Vietnamese child in late 2005 (Le et al., 2005).
 
Ruanaidh said:
I understand that we have Flu's that circle the globe each year that kill thousands, whilst many millions survive. In response to the Tamiflu statement I would posit that the widespread use of these neutered capsules of viruses could cause a dangerous leap in the mutation of live and potentially deadly viruses....but hey, in the end it will be a matter for people to do their own research and decide for themselves what to do....well maybe..... I am worried that egregious laws passed recently would allow some jackboot to forcibly aprehend me and stick some shite into my veins without my consent and/or isolate me for an unspecified period.
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Clearly you don't understand flu pandemics.
 
A view from the boss of WHO

Swine flu could return 'with a vengeance': WHO
Marc Burleigh
May 4, 2009 - 7:24PM

The head of the World Health Organisation warned on Monday that swine flu could return with a vengeance despite Mexico's President Felipe Calderon insisting his country has contained the epidemic.

WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a newspaper interview that a second wave of the virus "would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century", puncturing optimism emanating from the epicentre of the outbreak....

Chan said the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant that while any initial outbreak could be milder, a second wave could be more lethal, reflecting a pattern first seen with the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed up to 50 million people worldwide.

"We hope the virus fizzles out, because if it doesn't we are heading for a big outbreak," Chan told the Financial Times, adding that it could re-emerge in the months ahead "with a vengeance".

"I'm not predicting the pandemic will blow up, but if I miss it and we don't prepare, I fail. I'd rather over-prepare than not prepare."....
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http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...eturn-with-a-vengeance-who-20090504-asj9.html
 

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All i go on is facts. Not scare mongering that Dry Rot has been going on with at will in this thread, go onto his avian flu thread from a few years back, his at it again on there as well.

Instead of posting links to news articles and other unreliable sources and complementing that info with your own thoughts that normally are limited to such things as "very interesting read", why don't you actually look at facts? Anyone who trys to downplay the severity of the situation you shout down?

It almost seems your barracking for the situation to escalate? You do realise that if the situation did become a full blown pandemic then you could well be affected? Or do you live in the middle of no-where on a farm complete with canned food to last for 2 years along with 50 packets of tamiflu you have horded over the years, in the process denying the people who could greatly benefitted from it's use. Most of those tablets are probably expired by now anyway. If there even legitmate to begin with.

It really annoys me when people panic and go out and demand a script for tamiflu which has happened recently. Coming into the flu season there is going to be people who would benefit greatly from tamiflu who could well be hindered in gaining access to it due to the increase hurdles that have now been put in place. Not to mention the fact that these horders probably would start popping double doses as soon as any temperature or sniffle emerges.

Facts are outisde mexico, 647 people have lab confirmed cases, with one death in a young baby.
 
The media are suckers - clearly there is in't anything else to talk about in the news these days. Thousands die every year from the ordinary flu and that doesn't make the news. A huge overreaction.
 

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Better safe than sorry. There's a lot work behind the scenes to prevent this from becoming a full blown pandemic. I'd much prefer a bit of over the top hysteria for a few days than to treat it lightly and let it get to a stage where thousands of lives are lost. :thumbsu:
 
Cases in Mexico underestimated

Study: Many more swine flu cases than confirmed
By MARK STEVENSON and DAVID KOOP (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
May 12, 2009 3:38 AM EDT

MEXICO CITY - The swine flu virus was confirmed on Tuesday to have spread to more countries as scientists estimated the new strain could have sickened 23,000 people in Mexico alone before anyone realized it was an epidemic.

Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova said his nation's shutdown of schools - which was lifted in most of the country's 31 states Monday - had averted an avalanche of cases.

"It would have been difficult for us to have controlled this epidemic," Cordova said, according to a statement released his office late Monday. It said Mexico had 56 deaths and 2,059 confirmed cases of swine flu.


A study published Monday in the journal Science estimated Mexico alone may have had 23,000 cases of swine flu by April 23, the day it announced the epidemic. The study estimates swine flu kills between 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent of its victims, but lead author Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London, said the data remain incomplete.

"It's very difficult to quantify the human health impact at this stage," he said.

The analysis in Science suggests there are many more cases than those confirmed by laboratories - anywhere from 6,000 to 32,000 cases in Mexico as of April 23. The flu has since spread around the world, and the study said it appears to be substantially more contagious than normal, seasonal flu.

Researchers also compared the DNA of the viruses in 23 confirmed cases, and came up with an estimate of Jan. 12 for their earliest common ancestor - presumably when person-to-person transmission began. But with everything that isn't known, they said it could have been anywhere from Nov. 3 to March 2.
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http://enews.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20090511/4a08f440_3ca6_1552620090512-1459711892
 
A comparison with the 1957 flu pandemic

Swine Flu Is as Severe as 1957 Pandemic, Study Shows (Update1)

By John Lauerman

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The swine flu strain that has sickened people in 30 countries rivals the severity of the 1957 “Asian flu” pandemic that killed 2 million people, scientists said.

About four of 1,000 people infected with the new H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died, according to a study published yesterday in the journal Science that was led by Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College London. Seasonal flu epidemics cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year, the World Health Organization has said.

Scientists are trying to determine whether swine flu will mutate and become more deadly as it spreads to the Southern Hemisphere and back. The virus is more contagious than seasonal flu, the Geneva-based WHO said yesterday. A “moderate” pandemic like the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year, the World Bank said in October.

“While substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957,” the Science study authors wrote....


More Contagious

In seasonal flu, each person who comes in contact with someone who’s sick has a 5 percent to 15 percent probability of illness, according to a statement on the WHO’s Web site. In swine flu, the probability increases to 22 percent to 33 percent, WHO said.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aiWTCf0j63kI&refer=germany#
 
Bombers_Forever said:
The media are suckers - clearly there is in't anything else to talk about in the news these days. Thousands die every year from the ordinary flu and that doesn't make the news. A huge overreaction.
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Exactly. More people die from FLU's A and B. Did they get their shots for them? Probably not.
 
"A “moderate” pandemic like the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year, the World Bank said in October."

Why is the World Bank giving health warnings?

Glaxo and Roche, with that stockpile of Tamiflu.

Aint cured anything else except insider shareholders misery.

How many died combined, confirmed figures of SARS, Avian and the new one?

Less than one hundred.
 

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