Swine Flu

[Eagle87]

incorrect there. at least we have a health management plan where I work for all suspected cases, so yes I am aware of the actual facts of the disease, and the treatment etc.

glad you can read and sift through what you think is the relevant information about the disease. a little selective information can be very damaging imo.

So no answers to the questions I asked AND no comment on your glaring error on the 26 year old woman?


These "actual facts" about the disease - please advise those of us who are unworthy and can only read stuff on CDC and other websites what these "actual facts" are? Will wait eagerly.

 

[Dry Rot]

Even the CDC is saying that, at present, this is a mild strain of flu - are you disputing that?

Here's a view of mild

Critics say 'mild' a misleading term for H1N1

Updated Sun. Jun. 28 2009 2:45 PM ET

The Canadian Press

TORONTO -- Officialdom's mantra about swine flu -- "it is overwhelmingly mild" -- might seem incongruous if we knew the number of children, teens and young adults in ICU beds right now alive only because a breathing machine has taken over for their ravaged lungs.

The heavy reliance on the word "mild " could be creating a false impression of what is actually going on and what the world may face in coming months, some experts worry.

Peter Sandman, a risk communications guru from Princeton, N.J., suggests if authorities are trying to ensure people don't panic about the new H1N1 outbreak, they are concerned about the wrong thing...

"I think the problem is we don't know how to paint this picture properly," says Dr. Allison McGeer, a flu expert at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital.

"Because it's perfectly true that most cases are mild. But it doesn't mean that you shouldn't worry about it."

Regular flu, as anyone who has had it know, is no walk in the park.

And with this new flu, a small subset of people gets very, very sick. Their lungs are overwhelmed by an aggressive viral pneumonia one doctor described as looking like a "white out" on an X-ray. A number of hospitals are struggling to keep these people alive.

Generally much younger than the typical hospitalized flu patient, many of these people have been on ventilators for weeks. And every day, officials in some part of the globe announce that a 15-year-old boy, a 24-year-old woman or an otherwise healthy pregnant woman in her third trimester has lost the battle.

"When you look at those things then you begin to say `Well, is it really accurate, is it really fair to say that this is a mild phenomenon?"' says Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's top flu expert.

Fukuda and his team have been warning for some time that the unusual age pattern of severe cases, the odd out-of-season spread and the fact that the virus is killing some previously healthy young adults makes the term moderate a more appropriate severity assessment.

That pattern, seen in previous pandemics, makes flu watchers sit up and take notice. "What it really leads you to conclude is that boy, we'd better watch this pretty carefully," Fukuda says.

There still isn't a good estimate of the percentage of total swine flu cases that becomes gravely ill, or the percentage that succumbs to the virus's onslaught. Currently the numbers may seem small; 25 deaths in Canada, 127 in the U.S., 263 worldwide. (Swine flu has already beat bird flu in terms of death tolls.)

But as a human pathogen this virus is still a baby, despite its rapid global spread. No one knows what it is going to be when it grows up.

Some things are clear, though. Since most people seem to have no immunity to the virus -- some people over 60 may have some -- huge numbers will probably catch this flu over the next couple of years. In a relatively tight time frame, lots of people will come down with the flu -- far more than would be seen during a regular flu year.

To understand that impact, think back to elementary school arithmetic. If the denominator (the total number of cases) gets substantially bigger, the total number of people falling gravely ill or dying (the numerator) will rise sharply, even if the proportion of severe cases (the percentage) doesn't change.

And sheer numbers could make the outbreak get nasty, fast.

Several centres in North America are already struggling under the load of critically ill patients -- and this is summer, the season when flu viruses don't transmit as efficiently as they do during the cold winter months.

"If this is as bad as it's going to get, this is still not going to be a cakewalk," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"We still have relatively few people in the population getting sick. We don't know -- 10 per cent? Five per cent? We don't know yet."

"But if in fact we're stretching medical resources, particularly in the pediatric community now in many communities, people will start to die with higher frequency with the same disease spectrum if care is compromised and we can't get every kid on a pediatric vent(ilator)," Osterholm warns.

"Even if the disease severity doesn't change but this fall we see more people get sick at the same time, we're in trouble. Now, add in the potential for this virus to obviously change and cause more severe illness -- I mean none of this is good. I don't know how we can sit here and say `Oh, this is mild."'

Some people worry the constant refrain that swine flu is mild may be keeping people who are becoming severely ill from seeking care as soon as they should. They also worry young people -- the demographic least likely to get a shot for seasonal flu -- may decide they don't need to bother when H1N1 vaccine is ready.

McGeer thinks by that time the virus will have issued its own assessment.

"Unfortunately I think the number of deaths in the end is going to be high enough that people will get the message and generally will get their vaccine."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090628/mild_h1n1_090628/20090628?hub=Health

 

[Eagle87]

Here's a view of mild



http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090628/mild_h1n1_090628/20090628?hub=Health

...and??

So it might get worse, it might not AND there is not a single ****ing thing anyone of us can do about it other than move into your bunker. So what exactly is your point?

Do you want to dig out all the articles about Avian flu and Y2K and various other things that MIGHT be really bad or would you prefer to stick with known facts i.e. the vast majority of people get a mild flu and move on and a very few get it seriously and end up in IC ..... the next bit is, again, what exactly are you or the WHO suggesting we do about it?

Assuming the answer is nothing, what exactly is your point?

 

[Dry Rot]

...and??

So it might get worse, it might not AND there is not a single ****ing thing anyone of us can do about it other than move into your bunker. So what exactly is your point?

Do you want to dig out all the articles about Avian flu and Y2K and various other things that MIGHT be really bad or would you prefer to stick with known facts i.e. the vast majority of people get a mild flu and move on and a very few get it seriously and end up in IC ..... the next bit is, again, what exactly are you or the WHO suggesting we do about it?

Assuming the answer is nothing, what exactly is your point?

IIRC this is a discussion & news forum. WTF is your problem? How many threads here can anyone do anything about?

If you dispute whatever news I post, fair enough back it up.

We had three great flu pandemics in the 20th century, and this is the first of this century. No-one knows how it will pan out, but it has some disturbing similarities to 1918. Checked out the news in the last few days from Argentina?

 

[Eagle87]

IIRC this is a discussion & news forum. WTF is your problem? How many threads here can anyone do anything about?

If you dispute whatever news I post, fair enough back it up.

We had three great flu pandemics in the 20th century, and this is the first of this century. No-one knows how it will pan out, but it has some disturbing similarities to 1918. Checked out the news in the last few days from Argentina?

My point is that your posts are all from the "end of the world is nigh" group of articles. I havent noticed a single article that you have posted that is from the "its mild and somewhat of a concern but mild" group - which is about 90% of all the reports printed.

Why go for the end of the world approach?

Essentially, you are like a tabloid rag - running with an issue without presenting the appropriate perspective.

The Argentina case shows all the signs of being ala Mexico - the initial figures are alarming but thats just a likely due to massive under-reporting of total cases rather than a very high death rate (currently reported at 1.6%).

The Health Minister has just resigned amid complaints that she handled both this outbreak and an earlier dengue outbreak badly.

So you disagree that you are focusing on the alarmist end?

I saw a headline today that said "Swine Flu shows resistance to Tamiflu" .... a more detailed search reveals that in one patient in Denmark it has not been effective and this is consistent with normal flu - a small percenatge of people with normal flu and take Tamiflu find it doesnt work - its patient specific...

The headline was alarmist. From my perspective so are most of your posts on this topic. But having alarmed people what exactly would you have them do?

 

[Dry Rot]

My point is that your posts are all from the "end of the world is nigh" group of articles. I havent noticed a single article that you have posted that is from the "its mild and somewhat of a concern but mild" group - which is about 90% of all the reports printed.

Why go for the end of the world approach?

Essentially, you are like a tabloid rag - running with an issue without presenting the appropriate perspective.

The Argentina case shows all the signs of being ala Mexico - the initial figures are alarming but thats just a likely due to massive under-reporting of total cases rather than a very high death rate (currently reported at 1.6%).

The Health Minister has just resigned amid complaints that she handled both this outbreak and an earlier dengue outbreak badly.

So you disagree that you are focusing on the alarmist end?

I saw a headline today that said "Swine Flu shows resistance to Tamiflu" .... a more detailed search reveals that in one patient in Denmark it has not been effective and this is consistent with normal flu - a small percenatge of people with normal flu and take Tamiflu find it doesnt work - its patient specific...

The headline was alarmist. From my perspective so are most of your posts on this topic. But having alarmed people what exactly would you have them do?

What do make of the coverage here, when this stuff is happening?

Swine flu 'cannot be contained'


Andy Burnham: "We could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August"

The rising number of swine flu cases mean trying to contain the virus is no longer an option, the government says.
Ministers said the emergency response would now move to a new "treatment" phase across the UK as there may soon be 100,000 new cases a day.
It means anti-flu drugs will no longer be given to the close contacts of those infected nor will lab testing be done to confirm cases.
The move has been made to relieve the pressure on the health service.
The announcement, which comes into effect immediately, has long been expected.
It does not mean the pandemic virus is becoming more deadly, just that it can no longer be contained....

 

[Eagle87]

What do make of the coverage here, when this stuff is happening?

What "stuff"?

All the report says it that by later this year there MIGHT be a lot of new cases of what is acknowledged by the report of relatively mild form of flu.

I remain unclear what exactly the "news" is there.

I mean how many cases of normal flu are there every day and how much testing is done for that?

The answers are: no-one really knows and buggar all .....

Unless and until this flu becomes something serious - which it really isnt yet - then its really much ado about nothing .... the minute it mutates and becomes genuinely "deadly" then we have a real story ....

 

[rdhopkins2]

A QLD jail prisoner has tested positive to swine flu. Those in the same block are apparently being given Tamiflu.

 

[Bodicifer]

Swine flu is no more dangerous than the normal flu. In fact, some medico's will tell you it is less dangerous than the swine flu. All the deaths so far have been in people where if they go the 'traditional' flu it would have killed them as well. People need to get some perspective and stop listening to the media.

 

[bit_pattern]

People need to get some perspective and stop listening to the media.

Except, of course, the media that you get your info from

Pretty rich coming from a Bolt-ite.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Swine flu is no more dangerous than the normal flu. In fact, some medico's will tell you it is less dangerous than the swine flu. All the deaths so far have been in people where if they go the 'traditional' flu it would have killed them as well. People need to get some perspective and stop listening to the media.

I'm not worried about this at all. The SARS/Bird Flu infections killed quite a few folk but that threat has to my knowledge now receeded. This variant will bob up, bite a few folk and then disappear again.

Just like the Doggies, eh Bodicifer?

 

[Patronus]

Swine flu is no more dangerous than the normal flu. In fact, some medico's will tell you it is less dangerous than the swine flu. All the deaths so far have been in people where if they go the 'traditional' flu it would have killed them as well. People need to get some perspective and stop listening to the media.

Who are theses medicos?

WHO has said it is slightly more dangerous than normal flu and is in fact killing people that were healthy before getting it. (there goes your 'they would have died anyway' argument)

I wonder who knows more about flu strains? the organization that is in charge of monitoring it, you or your imaginary medicos.

Because it was WHO who has pharmaceutical companies to stop making seasonal flu vaccines and go to swine flu. It is a big thing to do becuase you can not make both at once. Therefore the people in charge have said it is the worse strain that is around in the world atm.

But you know better I am sure. How would their years of knowledge ever hope to compare to yours?

 

[Dry Rot]

Looks like Tamiflu resistant swine flu is spreading

Two patients suspected of having antiviral resistant H1N1 strain

Officials from the Tan Binh District Preventive Health Agency in HCMC instruct a local resident (C) on preventive measures to guard against influenza A (H1N1) The National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology is studying the genes of H1N1 virus from two patients following suspicion about its resistance to the antiviral drug oseltamivir or Tamilflu.

The two patients were among the 19 people admitted to the institute so far, Director Nguyen Van Kinh said Wednesday. Three of these cases were locally transmitted, he added....

 

[Eagle87]

Looks like Tamiflu resistant swine flu is spreading

More alarmism DR?

Please also post the other reports that accurately and correctly point out that a certain percentage of people with "normal" flu are also not helped by Tamiflu! Which is to say that tamiflu is completely ineffective in a number of people with normal flu - why should swine flu be different?

Or do you only post half the story for some other reason?

 

[Dry Rot]

More alarmism DR?

Please also post the other reports that accurately and correctly point out that a certain percentage of people with "normal" flu are also not helped by Tamiflu! Which is to say that tamiflu is completely ineffective in a number of people with normal flu - why should swine flu be different?

Or do you only post half the story for some other reason?

Eh? It's well known that seasonal Brisbane A is Tamiflu resistant.

I don't think you've ever got all this, have you? Do you understand the focus and concern about swine flu?

 

[Eagle87]

Eh? It's well known that seasonal Brisbane A is Tamiflu resistant.

I don't think you've ever got all this, have you? Do you understand the focus and concern about swine flu?

I think I understand it fine.

Its flu, we have no resistance because its new (unless your over about 60 apparently), its currently mild and the vast majority of people get a mild flu which passes after several days. In some people tamiflu is ineffective in dealing with swine flu.

It also MAY mutate and become worse and kill lots of people.

I also MAY win lotto and become insanely rich.

Of course if the first one happens we have a problem, so people are studying developments to see what MAY be developing and what MAY happen.

Regardless, there is buggar all, apart from basic hygiene (or bunkers ) that any of us can do about it.

I think thats about right. No?

 

[fairdinkum]

Apart from some people's morbid fascination with the potential for an almighty disaster -- no matter how minute the chance of the potential coming to realisation -- I think you have pretty much summed the situation up well, E87.

 

[Dry Rot]

I think I understand it fine.

Its flu, we have no resistance because its new (unless your over about 60 apparently), its currently mild and the vast majority of people get a mild flu which passes after several days. In some people tamiflu is ineffective in dealing with swine flu.

It also MAY mutate and become worse and kill lots of people.

I also MAY win lotto and become insanely rich.

Of course if the first one happens we have a problem, so people are studying developments to see what MAY be developing and what MAY happen.

Regardless, there is buggar all, apart from basic hygiene (or bunkers ) that any of us can do about it.

I think thats about right. No?

Good luck with lotto but it's already started to mutate.

Northern hemisphere health officials are expecting a much nastier version for their next winter.

 

[fairdinkum]

Northern hemisphere health officials are expecting a much nastier version for their next winter.

That'd be like Knights coming out and saying that Lloyd will be 'much nastier' next season.

 

[Eagle87]

Good luck with lotto but it's already started to mutate.

Northern hemisphere health officials are expecting a much nastier version for their next winter.

"Expecting"??

While I concede that I may have missed something, I havent seen anyone state they are expecting worse. Some have suggested they "fear" this or are "concerned" that this may occur.... but thats not the same as expecting...

Do you have a link?

 

[Dry Rot]

"Expecting"??

While I concede that I may have missed something, I havent seen anyone state they are expecting worse. Some have suggested they "fear" this or are "concerned" that this may occur.... but thats not the same as expecting...

Do you have a link?

Here's one recent example

Obama Warns of Return of Swine Flu in the Fall

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: July 9, 2009

BETHESDA, Md. — The Obama administration warned Americans on Thursday to be ready for an aggressive return of the swine flu virus in the fall, announcing plans to begin vaccinations in October and offering states and hospitals money to help them prepare.

“The potential for a significant outbreak in the fall is looming,” President Obama said by telephone link from Italy to the White House’s H1N1 Influenza Preparedness Summit, held at the National Institutes of Health.

With good planning, “we may end up averting a crisis,” Mr. Obama said. “That’s our fervent hope.”..

That bloke seems to be expecting something nasty this autumn.

 

[campbell]

Some people dont like informed information being given .
Educating is not something that seems to be of interest to some.

Thanks Dr for your information, I appreciate it.

 

[Dry Rot]

Some people dont like informed information being given .
Educating is not something that seems to be of interest to some.

Thanks Dr for your information, I appreciate it.

No probs. Hopefully some people here are interested.

Some other bits

From The Times
July 10, 2009
NHS ‘not ready’ to deal with swine flu epidemic, leaked memo reveals

Emergency plans for dealing with a predicted surge in swine flu are muddled and contradictory, a leaked memo from the health service warns.

As the number of people falling ill in London and the West Midlands nears epidemic levels, officials believe that some measures to distribute drugs and relieve pressure on hospitals and GPs are “a complete waste of time”.

Correspondence between senior personnel seen by The Times raises concerns about the NHS’s readiness to deal with the hundreds of thousands of cases expected in the coming months...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6677542.ece

..."If this is as bad as it's going to get, this is still not going to be a cakewalk," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"We still have relatively few people in the population getting sick. We don't know -- 10 per cent? Five per cent? We don't know yet."

"But if in fact we're stretching medical resources, particularly in the pediatric community now in many communities, people will start to die with higher frequency with the same disease spectrum if care is compromised and we can't get every kid on a pediatric vent(ilator)," Osterholm warns.

"Even if the disease severity doesn't change but this fall we see more people get sick at the same time, we're in trouble. Now, add in the potential for this virus to obviously change and cause more severe illness -- I mean none of this is good. I don't know how we can sit here and say `Oh, this is mild."'....

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090628/mild_h1n1_090628/20090628?hub=Health

 

[Eagle87]

Here's one recent example



That bloke seems to be expecting something nasty this autumn.

Ummm... he is simply stating that its highly likely that THE FLU season will result in an increase in cases of ummm THE FLU of which we now have a new variation.

Nothing in that article suggests a worse form of Swine Flu - which was your assertion - No?

 

[Eagle87]

Some people dont like informed information being given .

Educating is not something that seems to be of interest to some.

Thanks Dr for your information, I appreciate it.

Nice to see more of your sly swiping without any actual content as usual

You really are one of the worst posters on BF and getting worse daily.

I suspect all of us, myself at the top of the list (as a very regular international traveller), are very interested in following developments on Swine Flu. What we are going to correct is people who present that information in a manner that is alarmist and isn't actually based on fact but rather on a series of maybe's and possiblys...