Tanking is a myth

[catempire]

Show me a team that has tanked and won a flag.

Sydney, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, North Melbourne and Adelaide are the premiership teams of the past decade. Not one of them has tanked in order to win the flag.

At the moment, Adelaide will end 2006 being the most dominant team in the home and away season since Essendon in 2000. What have their ladder positions been since they won back to back in 1997-98?

2005 1st
2004 12th
2003 6th
2002 3rd
2001 8th
2000 11th
1999 13th

What did they do to come good? They got rid of a dud coach (Ayres), got a highly intelligent, competent, inventive and creative coach with a wealth of new ideas and tactics and stuck him in charge. They developed a game plan and made it 100% of their focus. Every player in their team plays for that game plan 100% of the game.

Thompson is out of ideas, out of time and should be out the door. He's done a serviceable job until now but he doesn't have what it takes to bring us the flag. It pains me but it's true.

 

[Oscarlett]

Interesting post! I have a lot of time for MT, but I'm leaning towards a change. There must be a reasonably tranparent review of the Head coaches role at years end, he/staff have developed a very sound list, but perhaps a Craig / Wallace / Eade type change is what will take us to the next step.

The majority of players/coaches seem all to comfortable leaning on what they could be, rather than having the drive to actual become it.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Essendon - 14th in 1997, flag in 2000 (probably should have won in '99 too)
Brisbane - last in 1998, flags in 2001-3
Port - 14th in 2000, 3rd in 2001, 1st in 2002 (took them longer to win a flag because they choked in finals)

Brisbane is a perfect case study. Finals in 1996 and 1997, came stone motherless last in 1998, bounced back to 3rd in 1999 and the rest is history. The Cats finished near the bottom in in 1990, after a GF in '89, and then just missed flags in '92, '94 and '95. Collingwood is doing it now - GFs in 2002-3, bottom 2004-5, top four this year.

I'm not suggesting we tank in the sense of deliberately losing games. But I am suggesting that we should certainly playing a few who might not be considered to be in our 'best 22' (such as Koula, Spencer, Slade, Batchelor, Lonergan, McCarthy, N Ablett, Gamble, Sheringham, Prismall, Blake, Gardiner, Byrnes). Although it might also mean finishing in the lower reaches of the ladder, it will give us three important benefits:

(1) It will allow us to properly assess the fringe players on the list and decide who we don't think will make it, and may even add some trade value to those we don't want (an average senior player will be worth more than someone who can't even get a game).

(2) It will get some critical experience and game time into the younger players, helping them to develop more quickly.

(3) It will give us better youngsters to choose from in the draft.

Its all about realising we WILL NOT win the flag this year - even if we somehow make the 8, yesterday showed how far off the leaders we are - and making the best longer term decisions on that basis. And as the examples above show, finishing low this year doesn't mean a long period of rebuilding.

Oh, and I don't think a new coach is a bad idea either. His awestruck reaction to the shellacking yesterday underlines how far off the pace we are from a coaching perspective.

 

[chapmanmagic35]

If Thompson was to go, he would have my respect as he has backed this club and worked his backside off.

I would hope the rest of Geelong fans would be with me.

 

[catempire]

Essendon - 14th in 1997, flag in 2000 (probably should have won in '99 too)
Brisbane - last in 1998, flags in 2001-3
Port - 14th in 2000, 3rd in 2001, 1st in 2002 (took them longer to win a flag because they choked in finals)

Brisbane is a perfect case study. Finals in 1996 and 1997, came stone motherless last in 1998, bounced back to 3rd in 1999 and the rest is history.

The Cats finished near the bottom in in 1990, after a GF in '89, and then just missed flags in '92, '94 and '95. Collingwood is doing it now - GFs in 2002-3, bottom 2004-5, top four this year.

I don't think we should deliberately lose games. But we should certainly consider playing a few who might not be considered to be in our 'best 22' (such as Koula, Spencer, Slade, Batchelor, Lonergan, McCarthy, N Ablett, Gamble, Sheringham, Prismall, Blake, Gardiner, Byrnes). Although it might also mean finishing in the lower reaches of the ladder, it will give us three important benefits:

(1) It will allow us to properly assess the fringe players on the list and decide who we don't think will make it, and may even add some trade value to those we don't want (an average senior player will be worth more than someone who can't even get a game).

(2) It will get some critical experience and game time into the younger players, helping them to develop more quickly.

(3) It will give us better youngsters to choose from in the draft.

Its all about realising we WILL NOT win the flag this year - even if we somehow make the 8, yesterday showed how far off the leaders we are - and making the best longer term decisions on that basis. And as the examples above show, finishing low this year doesn't mean a long period of rebuilding.

Reg, you're not seriously suggesting Essendon won the flag in 2000 because they finished 14th in 1997 are you?

EDIT: Essendon took Mark Bolton with that pick!!!

Brisbane got Des Headland with the first pick in the 1998 draft. Did he win them 3 premierships?

 

[Reg Hickey]

Reg, you're not seriously suggesting Essendon won the flag in 2000 because they finished 14th in 1997 are you?

Brisbane got Des Headland with the first pick in the 1998 draft. Did he win them 3 premierships?

No. Jonathon Brown went a long way towards winning them three premierships, but they didn't get him until 1999 under F/S. Maybe that player for us is Tom Hawkins, or maybe its our first pick in the draft, or maybe its neither.

But my point is not that by finishing near the bottom we will suddenly get the kid that will win us a premiership, a la J Brown (although that is certainly possible in this draft). My point is that we need to do a serious audit of the list, and the only way to do that is to play some of these blokes and find out if they can cut it at senior level. And I'm saying that we shouldn't be scared of finishing low to do it in a year in which the premiership is definitely out of reach anyway. Its not the end of the world, and it comes with added benefits.

We're not here to just play finals and be happy with that. We're here to win premierships, and the club should be making the decisions that maximise our opportunity to do so in the coming years.

 

[catempire]

No. Jonathon Brown went a long way towards winning them three premierships, but they didn't get him until 1999 under F/S. Maybe that player for us is Tom Hawkins, or maybe its our first pick in the draft, or maybe its neither.

But my point is not that by finishing near the bottom we will suddenly get the kid that will win us a premiership, a la J Brown (although that is certainly possible in this draft). My point is that we need to do a serious audit of the list, and the only way to do that is to play some of these blokes and find out if they can cut it at senior level. And I'm saying that we shouldn't be scared of finishing low to do it in a year in which the premiership is definitely out of reach anyway. Its not the end of the world, and it comes with added benefits.

We're not here to just play finals and be happy with that. We're here to win premierships, and the club should be making the decisions that maximise our opportunity to do so in the coming years.

Don't disagree with any of that Reg, but nothing you've said supports the tank theorists out there that believe in order to win a flag we must finish low. It's simply nonsense. No team has one the flag on the back of finishing last or near last. They've improved in other ways which is what we also must do.

 

[catempire]

*bump*

for the benefit of the tank advocates. Come on, where are you?!?

 

[Beano31]

This is a pretty interesting thread with some interesting arguments.

I have to agree with the tanking myth. I seriously do not think that since the draft has become a part of the AFL that any side that has 'tanked' has benefited a great deal from this tanking, especially to the extent of it directly bringing a premiership within the next few years.

Having said that, I agree with the idea that we need to play a few of the kids and fringe players to assess where they are at, and if they can offer the club anything in the next few years. But I don't think it is time just yet to do this. Pick deserving players now (which means a few can still be dropped. ie Kingsley, Kelly) but play the best possible side for atleast the next few weeks. We will know in a fortnight if our finals chances are still in reach. I can still see us getting 8th spot, simply because I can't see Freo, Richmond or Port getting it, but this still has to be the goal. Finals is a different ball game, it is likely our first game would be in Melbourne, and anything can happen after this.

With our past recruiting record, I have no doubt that we can pick up 5 quality players no matter where we finish, particularly in this draft pool.

 

[bashar]

god some of you are just out of this world......if we tank we wont win no damn wooden spoon, wat well get is a chance at a top 5 pick. in this case a number 1 draft pick had it been any other draft. yes we have been picking up quality players but those players had abundants of time and were blooded in the afl. we dont blood any youngsters in. look at lonergan 4rth year player has played under 10 games, look at spencer hes going to probably be delisted, look at koola. all im saying is give those players a chance. give varco,bachelor,sheringham a shot. we complain that harly is getting on and hes injury ridden, well give a youngster a shot at chb.
simply look at collingwood they came second last and now there in the top 5. the point is we have a strong squad. we just need one/two quality players to kick start us again, and also give the next batch of kids a shot.
who knows if one or 2 of them proves there worth then the club might trade in some non performing players because we have adequite replacements.
what is the point of making the 8 and droping out in the first round?
we cant compete with any of the top 4 there just better then us at the moment. were not playing like a team and we lack the super stars to get us to a flag.
to play like a team i think thats the coach's delema and if hes to be held responsible then so be it
the tallent bit is up to how tallented the players are, and if you ask me i think varco is ozzing of it and so is stokes, theres koola who i think is ripping it in the vfl and should have a chance to play in his prefered position.
look all those old farts thinking its usless to tank can go along be happy that geelong hasnt won anything in 40 odd years. ill take a little bit of heart ache for future success thank you very much.

 

[catempire]

god some of you are just out of this world......if we tank we wont win no damn wooden spoon, wat well get is a chance at a top 5 pick. in this case a number 1 draft pick had it been any other draft. yes we have been picking up quality players but those players had abundants of time and were blooded in the afl. we dont blood any youngsters in. look at lonergan 4rth year player has played under 10 games, look at spencer hes going to probably be delisted, look at koola. all im saying is give those players a chance. give varco,bachelor,sheringham a shot. we complain that harly is getting on and hes injury ridden, well give a youngster a shot at chb.
simply look at collingwood they came second last and now there in the top 5. the point is we have a strong squad. we just need one/two quality players to kick start us again, and also give the next batch of kids a shot.
who knows if one or 2 of them proves there worth then the club might trade in some non performing players because we have adequite replacements.
what is the point of making the 8 and droping out in the first round?
we cant compete with any of the top 4 there just better then us at the moment. were not playing like a team and we lack the super stars to get us to a flag.
to play like a team i think thats the coach's delema and if hes to be held responsible then so be it
the tallent bit is up to how tallented the players are, and if you ask me i think varco is ozzing of it and so is stokes, theres koola who i think is ripping it in the vfl and should have a chance to play in his prefered position.
look all those old farts thinking its usless to tank can go along be happy that geelong hasnt won anything in 40 odd years. ill take a little bit of heart ache for future success thank you very much.

Hmm... who's out of this world?

Why tank when there are 9 games left and the best possible finish is about 5the on the ladder? The season isn't a write-off yet, the coaches and players aren't going to give up yet, so why bother suggesting that we should give up?

Are you suggesting Collingwood are good this year because they had a bad year last year? Please explain...

Tanking has never delivered a premiership. End of story. If you can prove otherwise, go right ahead!

 

[bashar]

listen mate i dont wana lose on purpose if we can win with some of the youngsters then thats awsome. collingwood are doing a hell of a lot better this year compared to last year would you agree with that? they had alot of guys out with injuries and that restricted thier squad. now there bouncing back and unearthed some future 10 year players aswell.
all in all fine we can try our guts and win against carlton and we can take wat ever we want out of those perthetic victories and we might not even make the finals i mean come on 7 out of the next 9......hell if we can do that then im ok with that, it must mean were doing something right wouldnt you agree?
whats the point in climbing a ladder to end up not making the cut and well miss out on a top 5 pick in a super strong draft.
if we play youngsters we can see where we are at, we will have a better future, and a strong chance at a premiership then just making up the numbers like we usually do.
you ask me name a team that tanked and did well, i ll ask you didnt eagles catch a break when they picked up one chris judd in a supper draft such as the upcoming one?
the point is geniuine supperstars will not last till a crappy 8th or 9th pick. theres 5/6stand outs and it just so happenes that there KPP and what do you know...geelong has been dying for a quality KPP.
and if we do pick one or 2 up in this draft well we would be set for 10 years... that leaves next draft selections focused on midfielders where we could use any pick to unearth a sweet midfielder, one needs to only look at kerr being picked up at 18 or del santo at 13. but you dont see a pavilich or a roo or a kozi lasting till those numbers.
mind you this discussion will yield nothing because geelong is too proud of a club to think strategicaly, they would much rather do things the old fashioned way.
in that case well just have to keep our fingers crossed that there are more tom hawkins's out thier in order for us to attain the cup. because were not good enough to win it, and were not crap enough to bottem out and re group.