Team Rating System, update after Finals, Week Three

[The Swans Blog]

So Hobbes what's ur betting currency. It wouldn't happen to be magical beans?

 

[Crankyhawk]

So Hobbes what's ur betting currency. It wouldn't happen to be magical beans?

Harsh. Hobbes has not styled himself along Roby lines. I'm thinking of it as a squiggle alternate with heavier emphasis on more recent form and without the ease of use (as yet) that squiggle gives. Certainly more transparency than Roby troll rankings and magic beans.

 

[1990crow]

As a Hawks man I have Adelaide favourites we are getting little out of the middle apart from Sam Mitchell and we have only one big key defender - against 3 key forwards. Jenkins will kick a bag.

Except Jenkins doesnt play like a key forward. I still have nightmares of that semi final, so going in with low expectations.

 

[TGFC]

Great to see Roby's tradition of totally overrating the Crows is being continued

Got that adelaide sydney game soooo wrong hey

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

wanna see my ratings that are deduced from the system in my head? i'm pretty sure they're 100% correct.

1. hawthorn
2. north melbourne
3. adelaide
4. sydney
5. bulldogs
6. west coast
7. GWS
8. geelong

9. gold coast
10. melbourne
11. port adelaide
12. st kilda
13. fremantle
14. brisbane
15. richmond
16. collingwood
17. essendon
18. carlton

 

[TGFC]

S

wanna see my ratings that are deduced from the system in my head? i'm pretty sure they're 100% correct.

1. hawthorn
2. north melbourne
3. adelaide
4. sydney
5. bulldogs
6. west coast
7. GWS
8. geelong

9. gold coast
10. melbourne
11. port adelaide
12. st kilda
13. fremantle
14. brisbane
15. richmond
16. collingwood
17. essendon
18. carlton

So buckley and hardwick are tipped to get the flick

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

S

So buckley and hardwick are tipped to get the flick

i would say that if what we've seen continues neither should have a job by round 10

 

[Inferno]

Got that adelaide sydney game soooo wrong hey

Well he wasn't far off rating them '2st' just like Roby

 

[Final Siren]

I'm working on a formal record of exactly how it works through the 2015 season - I tried it as a hobby last year but didn't keep records. I'll post the outcomes here when it's done.

Just a thought! If you want to precisely describe the algorithm, I can run it through every season back to 1897 and see how it did. I already have a setup that does that.

 

[Hobbes]

Just a thought! If you want to precisely describe the algorithm, I can run it through every season back to 1897 and see how it did. I already have a setup that does that.

Cool. It took me a few hours to do one season (with full prediction records). I guess that's what I get for working on a clunky spreadsheet.

 

[Hobbes]

Mark I results, ladder and predictions

Hawthorn v Adelaide +2
Sydney +22 v West Coast
Gold Coast +4 v North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +33 v Brisbane
Port Adelaide v Geelong +10
St Kilda v GWS +12
Fremantle +14 v Carlton
Melbourne +15 v Richmond
Collingwood v Essendon +2

5/9 correct on win/loss. Maybe I should have given the algorithm an express instruction to not tip Essendon this year. It's been overvaluing Gold Coast's wins against rubbish opponents as well. I don't feel bad about Adelaide/Hawthorn, which could have gone either way (and was a cracking match), and I don't think many would have tipped Carlton.

1. Sydney 23.1
2. Bulldogs 17.2 (+1)
3. GWS 16.9 (+1)
4. North Melbourne 15.4 (+2)
5. Geelong 15.3
6. Adelaide 14.2 (-4)
7. Hawthorn 7.5 (+2)
8. Melbourne 6.8 (+2)
9. West Coast 6.3 (-2)
10. Gold Coast 0.5 (-2)
11. Collingwood -8.6 (+6)
12. St Kilda -11.2
13. Brisbane -12.6
14. Port Adelaide -12.7 (-3)
15. Carlton -16.3 (+3)
16. Richmond -17.3
17. Fremantle -18.1 (-3)
18. Essendon -24.8 (-3)

And predictions:

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs +2
Melbourne +18 v St Kilda
Adelaide +45 v Fremantle
GWS +14 v Hawthorn
Richmond +2 v Port
Geelong +21 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Sydney +27
Carlton +8 v Essendon
West Coast +23 v Collingwood

The Mark I still doesn't rate Hawthorn's bunch of small wins as indicative of a top team. Apart from that, this set of tips looks fairly uncontroversial, although NorthvBulldogs and RichmondvPort are tough to tip.

 

[Hobbes]

Mark II Ladder and Predictions

Hawthorn +6 v Adelaide
Sydney +15 v West Coast
Gold Coast v North Melbourne +20
Western Bulldogs +43 v Brisbane
Port Adelaide v Geelong +4
St Kilda v GWS +18
Fremantle +35 v Carlton
Melbourne +1 v Richmond
Collingwood +4 v Essendon

8/9 on win/loss. Tipping Carlton was just too hard.

1. Sydney 27.05
2. Adelaide 21.55
3. Hawthorn 19.85
4. Bulldogs 17.84 (+1)
5. North Melbourne 17.1 (+1)
6. Geelong 15.49 (+1)
7. West Coast 13.9 (-3)
8. GWS 11.8
9. Melbourne -1.6 (+1)
10. Port Adelaide -8.9 (-1)
11. Richmond -11.3
12. Gold Coast -13.8 (+1)
13. Collingwood -16.0 (+3)
14. Fremantle -16.8 (-2)
15. Brisbane -20.6
16. St Kilda -22.0 (-2)
17. Carlton -28.9 (+1)
18. Essendon -36.56 (-1)

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs +1
Melbourne +20 v St Kilda
Adelaide +50 v Fremantle
GWS v Hawthorn +3
Richmond +3 v Port
Geelong +35 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Sydney +38
Carlton +8 v Essendon
West Coast +38 v Collingwood

 

[Bloody]

I like how the system says the fourpeat of 3 point victories will continue.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Crankyhawk]

Mark I results, ladder and predictions

Hawthorn v Adelaide +2
Sydney +22 v West Coast
Gold Coast +4 v North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +33 v Brisbane
Port Adelaide v Geelong +10
St Kilda v GWS +12
Fremantle +14 v Carlton
Melbourne +15 v Richmond
Collingwood v Essendon +2

5/9 correct on win/loss. Maybe I should have given the algorithm an express instruction to not tip Essendon this year. It's been overvaluing Gold Coast's wins against rubbish opponents as well. I don't feel bad about Adelaide/Hawthorn, which could have gone either way (and was a cracking match), and I don't think many would have tipped Carlton.

1. Sydney 23.1
2. Bulldogs 17.2 (+1)
3. GWS 16.9 (+1)
4. North Melbourne 15.4 (+2)
5. Geelong 15.3
6. Adelaide 14.2 (-4)
7. Hawthorn 7.5 (+2)
8. Melbourne 6.8 (+2)
9. West Coast 6.3 (-2)
10. Gold Coast 0.5 (-2)
11. Collingwood -8.6 (+6)
12. St Kilda -11.2
13. Brisbane -12.6
14. Port Adelaide -12.7 (-3)
15. Carlton -16.3 (+3)
16. Richmond -17.3
17. Fremantle -18.1 (-3)
18. Essendon -24.8 (-3)

And predictions:

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs +2
Melbourne +18 v St Kilda
Adelaide +45 v Fremantle
GWS +14 v Hawthorn
Richmond +2 v Port
Geelong +21 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Sydney +27
Carlton +8 v Essendon
West Coast +23 v Collingwood

The Mark I still doesn't rate Hawthorn's bunch of small wins as indicative of a top team. Apart from that, this set of tips looks fairly uncontroversial, although NorthvBulldogs and RichmondvPort are tough to tip.

Nothing controversial tipping GWS they beat us up there last time and we are playing worse this year and they are better.

 

[Boxhead_31]

I like how the system says the fourpeat of 3 point victories will continue.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's the real Fourthorn Hawk supporters have been going on about

 

[HawkfromNorth]

It's the real Fourthorn Hawk supporters have been going on about

I'll take that at this point!

 

[Hobbes]

Mark I results, ladder and predictions

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs +2
Melbourne +18 v St Kilda
Adelaide +45 v Fremantle
GWS +14 v Hawthorn
Richmond +2 v Port
Geelong +21 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Sydney +27
Carlton +8 v Essendon
West Coast +23 v Collingwood

6/9 on win-loss. Didn't anticipate some surprise margins.

1. GWS +27.9 (+2)
2. Geelong +26.36 (+3)
3. Sydney +22.65 (-2)
4. North Melbourne +16.6
5. Western Bulldogs +15.8 (-3)
6. Adelaide +12.0
7. West Coast 9.77 (+2)
8. Hawthorn +3.5 (-1)
9. St Kilda -2.3 (+3)
10. Melbourne -2.4 (-2)
11. Port Adelaide -5.1 (+3)
12. Brisbane -6.9 (+1)
13. Gold Coast -8.7 (-3)
14. Collingwood -15.1 (-3)
15. Fremantle -17.90 (+2)
16. Carlton -17.93 (-1)
17. Richmond -25.1 (-1)
18. Essendon -25.6

Massive movement at the top end, fuelled by a big win against a strong opponent (GWS) and a massive win against an overrated opponent (Geelong)

Richmond v Hawthorn +29
Collingwood +3 v Carlton
Geelong +26 v West Coast
Sydney +53 v Essendon
Gold Coast v Melbourne +1 (really nothing in this one)
Western Bulldogs +10 v Adelaide
Fremantle v GWS +34
St Kilda v North Melbourne +19
Port Adelaide +12 v Brisbane Lions

 

[Hobbes]

Mark II results, ladder and predictions

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs +1
Melbourne +20 v St Kilda
Adelaide +50 v Fremantle
GWS v Hawthorn +3
Richmond +3 v Port
Geelong +35 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Sydney +38
Carlton +8 v Essendon
West Coast +38 v Collingwood

Damn, just missed on North and GWS. 5/9. Apparently Port aren't actually as rubbish as Richmond.

1. GWS +24.3 (+7, wow!)
2. Sydney +23.5 (-1)
3. Geelong +22.7 (+3)
4. Adelaide +15.9 (-2)
5. Western Bulldogs +14.2 (-1)
6. North Melbourne +13.3 (-1)
7. West Coast 12.7
8. Hawthorn 12 (-5)
9. Port Adelaide -2.2 (+1)
10. Melbourne -7.3 (-1)
11. St Kilda -11.7 (+5)
12. Brisbane -17.4 (+3)
13. Fremantle -18.3 (+1)
14. Richmond -21.2 (-3)
15. Collingwood -21.4 (-2)
16. Gold Coast -22.1 (-4)
17. Carlton -29.8
18. Essendon -39.8

Richmond v Hawthorn +33
Collingwood +8 v Carlton
Geelong +19 v West Coast
Sydney +68 v Essendon
Gold Coast v Melbourne +9
Western Bulldogs +4 v Adelaide
Fremantle v GWS +31
St Kilda v North Melbourne +25
Port Adelaide +25 v Brisbane Lions

 

[pinot]

Looks good - not sure on parameters you use but neuro algos are always interesting.

 

[Hobbes]

Looks good - not sure on parameters you use but neuro algos are always interesting.

I'm interested in how this works too. I think Final Siren (the squiggle) has replicated my algorithms and might be able to report on historical performance (I can do it manually, but it takes hours).

 

[BEaston]

Hobbes do you have a cumulative tipping count for both Mk I and II?

 

[Hobbes]

Hobbes do you have a cumulative tipping count for both Mk I and II?

I only started doing this formally from round 4. Currently running at 19/27 and 19.5/27 for Mark I and Mark II. Final Siren tells me that the Mark II averages 5 tips per year better.

 

[gandaal]

Both don't take into account home town advantage.

And Mark I has now placed Freo above Carlton once again a week after they lost at home to Carlton. Freo lost this week and Carlton won.

Are you sure this isn't Roby-lite?

 

[JT_the_Man]

Both don't take into account home town advantage.

And Mark I has now placed Freo above Carlton once again a week after they lost at home to Carlton. Freo lost this week and Carlton won.

Are you sure this isn't Roby-lite?

Well, I've been playing with a team rating system on a spreadsheet. I've tried to make this impartial so my own opinions don't come into it. Neither does any actual knowledge of the teams, so I'll be making no attempt to judge how teams will match up against each other, or who's in and who's out. Pretty much the only data I'm inputting is the margins of the matches from this season. Difficulty of opponents is rated by the same method, iterated a few times.

None of the teams seem to take the pre-season competition seriously, so neither do I. Teams' reputations count for nothing. I do take into account home ground advantage, using a very basic algorithm I based on results from a recent season. I assume that intra-state games confer no home-ground advantage for either team, and that matches played in strange places are as if played in the state of the home team.

At the moment, there are only three rounds of data, so I expect my ratings are very rough at the moment - they'll become more accurate as the season progresses. (Ultimately, they will take into account the last 13 matches for each team). To avoid the ratings being largely determined by how much the teams are beating Essendon by, any portion of a margin of victory in excess of 50 is considered to be halved (so an 80 point win is recorded as 65). And I have a moderate opinion that good teams tend to fall over the line more often when it matters, so margins from 1-11 points are modified upward by half of the difference between the actual winning margin and 12.

Anyway, I'll post a team ranking list and a set of predictions, purely based on my ratings (and home ground advantage). As a rule, my predicted resuts will be the scoreline which doesn't alter either team's ranking.

If I don't feel trolled into the ground, I'll try to continue this through the season.

1. Sydney
2. Adelaide
3. Gold Coast
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Geelong
6. North Melbourne
7. Hawthorn
8. Port Adelaide
9. West Coast
10. GWS
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Richmond
14. Essendon
15. Collingwood
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

A few of these I don't expect to stay where they are. Gold Coast have had a splendid start to the season, but more than a few people would be surprised if they keep it up. Hawthorn have had only a medium start to the season - I expect them to lift at some point. Fremantle have had a particularly horrid start to the season, but I doubt they'll stay that low for long.

An now, my predictions:

West Coast +19 v Richmond
Geelong +19 v Essendon
Hawthorn +13 v St Kilda
Brisbane v Gold Coast +33
Carlton v Western Bulldogs +26
Adelaide +6 v Sydney
GWS +6 v Port Adelaide
Melbourne +8 v Collingwood
North Melbourne +30 v Fremantle

Uh, yes it does.

 

[gandaal]

Uh, yes it does.

Then why is GWS on top?

The only team GWS has beaten away from home is St Kilda. They've lost to mediocre Melbourne and Sydney. The Grand Final last time I checked wasn't played at Spotless.