Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread Part 2

[Arr0w]

That is an excellent (and valid) question.

We were overrun on some occasions last year, but we also came home with a wet sail on others. My comment was based purely on empirical evidence. It seems to me that we have less red-time goals against us than we used to. It seems to me that we are running harder at the end of matches that we used to.

But I had no proof of any of that........until now...

I ran the stats on the last four seasons (2 seasons pre-Russell, 2 seasons post). And I looked at how we perform qtr by qtr (see bottom of post for proper explanation)

View attachment 1075719

Conclusion/TLDR: Pre-Russel, we were up and down. Post Russell, we start off slowly, build up steam and come home like a freight train. This isn't 100% due to fitness, but I think it would be the biggest factor

Notes:

• This is all based off an assumption that fitness has a major impact on how you perform towards the end of a match
• What this is graph represents is how we perform in each quarter compared to how we perform overall
  • This is done by comparing our % (our score/oppo score) in each quarter compared to our % for the season
  • Eg in 2017 our overall % for the year was 78%. But in Q1s that season, we had a % of 79%. So our first quarters were a little bit better than our efforts overall (ie 101% of our typical %)
• There are other factors at play here
  • Mindset is a factor in how you start and finish a game (mind you, AR prob be in charge of this factor too)
  • Coaching/match-ups impacts how you score throughout the game
  • If you are down by 10 goals at 3/4, perhaps you outscore your oppo in Q4 with junk time goals.
    • Mind you, we were poorer in 2017/18, so that should have benefitted from more junk time goals anyway
• Even though we have totally sucked, we still have the 'Premiership Quarter DNA' of Carlton teams past!
• Sample sizes yada yada
• It's Friday, my brain is fried, I can't vouch for the veracity of my calcs

Impressive Ferris

 

[Arr0w]

How do you quantify that we're fitter? As everyone knows we were overrun several times last year. I know its been said a lot that we're fitter, but where's the public evidence for it?

Not poking, serious question. I don't know how you or I can confidently say it right now aside from taking the words of the club as gospel. Also, being fit is being part of being an athlete, so choosing a fit footballer over and athlete is just picking an athlete that can football over just an athlete. Not that I'm opposed to that philosophy, I think it's an excellent one

All valid points coops, but I wouldn't consider our slumps as a lack of fitness, more maturity and experience.

A natural athlete will always be, well, a natural athlete. A strong fitness base for most footballers normally takes 4-5 years in the system.

No one should consider AR as a fitness messiah, but his record, at a number of clubs who experienced success is more than coincidence.

At this stage, I would analyze our projection as, naturally on course given rebuild timelines. Still believe the 23-27 age range/continiuty as a squad are the main factors of success in the AFL

 

[Coops93]

That is an excellent (and valid) question.

We were overrun on some occasions last year, but we also came home with a wet sail on others. My comment was based purely on empirical evidence. It seems to me that we have less red-time goals against us than we used to. It seems to me that we are running harder at the end of matches that we used to.

But I had no proof of any of that........until now...

I ran the stats on the last four seasons (2 seasons pre-Russell, 2 seasons post). And I looked at how we perform qtr by qtr (see bottom of post for proper explanation)

View attachment 1075719

Conclusion/TLDR: Pre-Russel, we were up and down. Post Russell, we start off slowly, build up steam and come home like a freight train. This isn't 100% due to fitness, but I think it would be the biggest factor

Notes:

• This is all based off an assumption that fitness has a major impact on how you perform towards the end of a match
• What this is graph represents is how we perform in each quarter compared to how we perform overall
  • This is done by comparing our % (our score/oppo score) in each quarter compared to our % for the season
  • Eg in 2017 our overall % for the year was 78%. But in Q1s that season, we had a % of 79%. So our first quarters were a little bit better than our efforts overall (ie 101% of our typical %)
• There are other factors at play here
  • Mindset is a factor in how you start and finish a game (mind you, AR prob be in charge of this factor too)
  • Coaching/match-ups impacts how you score throughout the game
  • If you are down by 10 goals at 3/4, perhaps you outscore your oppo in Q4 with junk time goals.
    • Mind you, we were poorer in 2017/18, so that should have benefitted from more junk time goals anyway
• Even though we have totally sucked, we still have the 'Premiership Quarter DNA' of Carlton teams past!
• Sample sizes yada yada
• It's Friday, my brain is fried, I can't vouch for the veracity of my calcs

Great research. Here's a dancing badger as a reward

 

[Arr0w]

No way Smith plays another 5 years

 

[Coops93]

Another fair call.

But I would counter with this (very generic) example

Player A is 9/10 on skills and 7/10 on fitness.
Player B is 7/10 on skills and 9/10 on fitness

I would prefer to recruit Player A and get him fitter than pick player B and work on his skills.

It's an interesting discussion because I broadly agree. Having said that you do need a balance. You can't have a team of average athletes, while you also can't have a team of only athletes.

I know a very fence sitting response but I believe it's the reality. For every Sam Mitchell you need an Isaac Smith.

 

[Ash24]

Cost us a first rounder wasn't cheap

Marchy, Pickett and a 2nd round pick, all for a 1st rounder going their way. Seems like a pretty good deal to me.

 

[JustaBattler]

Marchy, Pickett and a 2nd round pick, all for a 1st rounder going their way. Seems like a pretty good deal to me.

We also lost Tuohy in the deal - it would have been great if Pickett didn't do his knee and end his career - former pick#4 and an electric runner...still sad about losing him and C. Byrne - Marchbank might come good and we get somethign out of it.

 

[katmanblue]

Marchy, Pickett and a 2nd round pick, all for a 1st rounder going their way. Seems like a pretty good deal to me.

Who did we take with the 2nd

 

[Ash24]

Who did we take with the 2nd

TDK if I'm not mistaken at pick 30.

 

[therubbernub]

Is AR the messiah? I believe he was really daft in planning for Cripps to drop 5kg last season! He seems obsessed with how lean he can make some players. LOB followed a similar plan which set him back too. Our injury list has not improved at all since he arrived in 2019.

IMO the elite midfield players are being coached/encouraged to become the next dusty. None have really done this IMO. Players such as Dangerfield, Fyffe, Petracca, and now cripps are being told that could follow in Dustys footprint, and are having to try to morph their game into something that they are not. GAJ was one that did and was unstoppable when playing for GCS, but he was a freak.
Cripps was no doubt aware that his mobility was a weakness , and, to improve his forward craft, he had to lose weight and become more mobile. It didnt work out and they are going back to what he does best- being a clearance specialist.

The theory is good, but it seems pretty hard for even the elite players to emulate. Having a player that can be an elite midfielder and elite forward sounds fantastic, but its easier said than done. I dont believe that the Tigers would have won any of their recent flags without Dusty . So its a huge incentive to get it right. Given the huge upside potentially, it was worth a crack, but it hasnt worked.

 

[CarltonBlooz]

IMO the elite midfield players are being coached/encouraged to become the next dusty. None have really done this IMO. Players such as Dangerfield, Fyffe, Petracca, and now cripps are being told that could follow in Dustys footprint, and are having to try to morph their game into something that they are not. GAJ was one that did and was unstoppable when playing for GCS, but he was a freak.
Cripps was no doubt aware that his mobility was a weakness , and, to improve his forward craft, he had to lose weight and become more mobile. It didnt work out and they are going back to what he does best- being a clearance specialist.

The theory is good, but it seems pretty hard for even the elite players to emulate. Having a player that can be an elite midfielder and elite forward sounds fantastic, but its easier said than done. I dont believe that the Tigers would have won any of their recent flags without Dusty . So its a huge incentive to get it right. Given the huge upside potentially, it was worth a crack, but it hasnt worked.

Cripps has never been able to kick properly for goals, in all the time he's played AFL, plenty of times last year we needed that captain's goal and couldn't get there.

So I'm not entirely sure why he though it could change, he'll never be good forward, takes a good mark for sure, but kicking is incredibly poor, has that horrible stutter step when he runs up.

THANKFULLY he'll go back to being the clearance beast we all love.

 

[BigBreakfast]

IMO the elite midfield players are being coached/encouraged to become the next dusty. None have really done this IMO. Players such as Dangerfield, Fyffe, Petracca, and now cripps are being told that could follow in Dustys footprint, and are having to try to morph their game into something that they are not. GAJ was one that did and was unstoppable when playing for GCS, but he was a freak.
Cripps was no doubt aware that his mobility was a weakness , and, to improve his forward craft, he had to lose weight and become more mobile. It didnt work out and they are going back to what he does best- being a clearance specialist.

The theory is good, but it seems pretty hard for even the elite players to emulate. Having a player that can be an elite midfielder and elite forward sounds fantastic, but its easier said than done. I dont believe that the Tigers would have won any of their recent flags without Dusty . So its a huge incentive to get it right. Given the huge upside potentially, it was worth a crack, but it hasnt worked.

In terms of player type, I am a firm believer in you do you. Who was Dusty before Dusty? He carved a niche and happpy days for him. Cripps is a contested beast. You do you, Patrick.

 

[BigBreakfast]

The Old Dark Navy's Just curious, why don’t we see Mods like Chism on our own board? Feel like there are other mods and old timers who we don’t see here but are regular contributors on the main boards with loads to offer.

 

[therubbernub]

I agree , it doesnt seem to be working for most. Look at Dangerfield. Since GAJ came to the Cattery, the midfield depth was seen to be such that Danger could be used up forward more. Last 3 years it hasnt had the desired effect. Not that he has been weak at kicking goals, but he just hasnt jumped up in goals scored since he has spent more time forward.

 

[athensblue]

Dangerfield's durability is incredible over so many seasons
Hardly out injured
Not too many of our guys have had similar runs, Simmo of course
Crippa's also been incredibly durable considering the brick walls he runs through every game he plays

 

[gbatman]

I'm going to preface this real life example by saying I think Russel is doing a good job and has transformed our team really well and that this example is relevant in that we can't just dismiss contact injuries as unlucky or uncontrollable, they can still be assessed and prevented in plenty of cases by better coaching of players.

The coaching staff I work on witnessed one of our faster on ballers running for a contested ball, he got there a split second before his opponent and gathered the ball in one hand. Instead of keeping himself in straight lines and compressed he tried to side step as he collected the ball, so his body and weight were unbalanced at the moment of collision and out of the way but his arm and shoulder were still there. He got smashed fairy by the opposing player who went straight and competed fairly. Immediately tell it was a dislocated shoulder and found out later it was fairly nasty.

The big point is. All the coaches said immediately. If he had taken contact instead of trying to avoid it. He'd be fine. The two questions the staff have to answer was was he aware of how to approach those situations and is he fit and strong enough to Endure contact. The answer to the second is yes, strong fit guy. So fitness staff can't just be excused for all contact injuries. There's technique involved in heavy contact and a lot of injuries are avoidable. A lot aren't as well of course.

Valid points but I feel these contact injuries are just bad luck. But yes last year there were examples as you described, SPS being a good example but he's looked better and hadn't got hurt from it.

I think shipping on other players feet and getting bumps is just incidental.

 

[JustaBattler]

IMO the elite midfield players are being coached/encouraged to become the next dusty. None have really done this IMO. Players such as Dangerfield, Fyffe, Petracca, and now cripps are being told that could follow in Dustys footprint, and are having to try to morph their game into something that they are not. GAJ was one that did and was unstoppable when playing for GCS, but he was a freak.
Cripps was no doubt aware that his mobility was a weakness , and, to improve his forward craft, he had to lose weight and become more mobile. It didnt work out and they are going back to what he does best- being a clearance specialist.

The theory is good, but it seems pretty hard for even the elite players to emulate. Having a player that can be an elite midfielder and elite forward sounds fantastic, but its easier said than done. I dont believe that the Tigers would have won any of their recent flags without Dusty . So its a huge incentive to get it right. Given the huge upside potentially, it was worth a crack, but it hasnt worked.

Cripps has never been able to kick properly for goals, in all the time he's played AFL, plenty of times last year we needed that captain's goal and couldn't get there.

So I'm not entirely sure why he though it could change, he'll never be good forward, takes a good mark for sure, but kicking is incredibly poor, has that horrible stutter step when he runs up.

THANKFULLY he'll go back to being the clearance beast we all love.

Cripps is taller than Riewoldt and Brown - he is also a very strong mark - his set shot kicking from relatively shorter distances in front of goals is pretty safe, his contested ball work is outstanding if teh ball spills - the occassional foray into deep forward - like he was practising in the preccy matches is exactly where he should be positioned and it will pay benefits- @ CHF type positioning further from goals - not so much. As midfield gets stronger- Cripps can spend more time 'resting' in the goal square - drawing a key defender and allowing Harry / Levi to spread the defences as well.

So I disagree with the notion he can't play as a key target at times - it is all about where he is positioned and what the other forwards do to take advantage of it. - eg I have more confidence in Cripps as a key marking target than SOJ.

 

[CJMB]

Cripps is taller than Riewoldt and Brown - he is also a very strong mark - his set shot kicking from relatively shorter distances in front of goals is pretty safe, his contested ball work is outstanding if teh ball spills - the occassional foray into deep forward - like he was practising in the preccy matches is exactly where he should be positioned and it will pay benefits- @ CHF type positioning further from goals - not so much. As midfield gets stronger- Cripps can spend more time 'resting' in the goal square - drawing a key defender and allowing Harry / Levi to spread the defences as well.

So I disagree with the notion he can't play as a key target at times - it is all about where he is positioned and what the other forwards do to take advantage of it. - eg I have more confidence in Cripps as a key marking target than SOJ.

I still prefer Cripps starting in the middle and drifting forward which can create a defensive structure issue for the opposition. Kind of what Dusty does, compete at the centre bounce and immediately move forward. Cripps will bring a midfield opponent with him and then they have to make the call of swapping one of their talls to him or letting him be.

If we’ve already got two or three of Harry/Levi/Mitch/Pitto/TDK/Jack in the forward line that becomes a really hard decision to make on the run. It’s a bit easier if we’ve only got the one or two talls down there, their 2nd or 3rd tall probably makes the call to go to Cripps, although that could provide opportunities for someone like Jack in the transition phase where he’s left alone or with a height advantage.

 

[forever blue 1]

O/T
And mods if you wish to delete them fair call.
After a 20 year absence from the game, I’ll be playing again in the seconds in my town, well I’m pretty certain I’ll at least start on the pine.
Scary, as I haven’t trained in a long time but reasonably (normal people terms) in good shape. But local team are called the Bombers, so next training session, a brand new Blues Guernsey amd show the whole team which club is the best!
Go blues

 

[Gethelred]

IMO the elite midfield players are being coached/encouraged to become the next dusty. None have really done this IMO. Players such as Dangerfield, Fyffe, Petracca, and now cripps are being told that could follow in Dustys footprint, and are having to try to morph their game into something that they are not. GAJ was one that did and was unstoppable when playing for GCS, but he was a freak.
Cripps was no doubt aware that his mobility was a weakness , and, to improve his forward craft, he had to lose weight and become more mobile. It didnt work out and they are going back to what he does best- being a clearance specialist.

The theory is good, but it seems pretty hard for even the elite players to emulate. Having a player that can be an elite midfielder and elite forward sounds fantastic, but its easier said than done. I dont believe that the Tigers would have won any of their recent flags without Dusty . So its a huge incentive to get it right. Given the huge upside potentially, it was worth a crack, but it hasnt worked.

Big thing with Dusty is that he's a very good kick for goal, whether on the run or from a set shot. Once upon a time, he'd have been a CHF rather than a midfielder.

Cripps isn't that. Fyfe goes okay, but he's still not a great kick at goal on the run. Petracca has the potential to be like Dusty, but it'd need the kind of specific 'go to Dusty' gameplay in final terms that Hardwick used to go for; isolate him out the back one on one, and and just back him to win the contest. He did that play for 3 seasons prior to 2016, and in 2016 the entire team was asked mid season instead of whatever gameplan they wanted preseason to just give it to Dusty, which built up his fitness and so he exploded next year.

Most teams can't afford to do that sort of gameplay sacrificing development at AFL level, so they're just not going to get their players to Dusty's level.

 

[forever blue 1]

Man I hate this ! I want Thursday tomorrow !!

 

[thylacine60]

That would make today Wednesday and I need to be at work! No dice!

 

[juzz88]

That would make today Wednesday and I need to be at work! No dice!

Damn right.

People can wish for it to be Thursday after 5pm tonight.

That way we'll have skipped 4 days of work and tomorrow's Friday!

 

[Lace_Out]

Already put in for an RDO on Friday, I'm preparing to get blind should it get ugly.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[Arr0w]

Already put in for an RDO on Friday, I'm preparing to get blind when we win.

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