The Chinese Communist party are campaigners

[Ned_Flanders]

It doesn’t matter how inefficient or poOrly trained a Conscription army is if it has 100 million soldiers.

and conscription in China won’t have the same negative connotations as it does in the west.

you need those 100 million soldiers to be armed

russia in ww1 showed how useless a massive army is when much of it has little to no ammunition

also you need to keep 100 million soldiers fed, which means you need a massive ag surplus and a secure supply line to do this. China already has a food deficit, and the supply line will not be secure as long as the USN is in the pacific

 

[Seeds]

you need those 100 million soldiers to be armed

russia in ww1 showed how useless a massive army is when much of it has little to no ammunition

also you need to keep 100 million soldiers fed, which means you need a massive ag surplus and a secure supply line to do this. China already has a food deficit, and the supply line will not be secure as long as the USN is in the pacific

And do you really think that would not be possible? China is a civilisation of over 1 billion people that produces over a third of the worlds manufacturing.

if things really went to s**t they could probably get an army of 300 million Once they start invading lands and take conscripts from invaded lands too.

have a look into the economics of world war 2 and it might give you an idea of what countries can do militarily given the size of their populations and economies.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

And do you really think that would not be possible? China is a civilisation of over 1 billion people that produces over a third of the worlds manufacturing.

if things really went to sh*t they could probably get an army of 300 million Once they start invading lands and take conscripts from invaded lands too.

have a look into the economics of world war 2 and it might give you an idea of what countries can do militarily given the size of their populations and economies.

ammunition is made from metal, which they import

factories run on coal and oil, which they import

read up on war through the eons. food, clothing, and the resources needed for arms more often than not are what broke armies - not creative tactics


also china used the exact tactics you mentioned for years, and they lost two defensive wars against the mongolians, and got sliced and diced by vastly smaller but technologically superior english forces. even the japanese isnt a win, because it was japanese stupidity that cost them (the navy overruled the army. army wanted to press on with the war on china, navy wanted to divert resources and start the war in the pacific).

their strategy of massive numbers was more for suppressing internal rebellion and dissent. its much cheaper to move and feed a large army internally than in enemy territory (ask Napoleon or the crusader kings about that)

 

[Seeds]

ammunition is made from metal, which they import

factories run on coal and oil, which they import

read up on war through the eons. food, clothing, and the resources needed for arms more often than not are what broke armies - not creative tactics


also china used the exact tactics you mentioned for years, and they lost two defensive wars against the mongolians, and got sliced and diced by vastly smaller but technologically superior english forces. even the japanese isnt a win, because it was japanese stupidity that cost them (the navy overruled the army. army wanted to press on with the war on china, navy wanted to divert resources and start the war in the pacific).

their strategy of massive numbers was more for suppressing internal rebellion and dissent. its much cheaper to move and feed a large army internally than in enemy territory (ask Napoleon or the crusader kings about that)

you are correct that it’s resources that break armies. But China aint germany or Japan in the middle of the twentieth century.

Do you know how much metal is in chinas infrastructure right now? They can recycle it. Plus chinas got access to mines in Africa And is strongly connected to fuel resources in the Middle East, Mongolia and Russia.

germany lasted 5 years in a world that was far poorer in resources. I’m pretty sure China can survive an invasion of Taiwan and keep going for quite a while after that. and again China has so much of the worlds critical manufacturing base. the west is going to suffer their own problems accessing manufactured goods.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

you are correct that it’s resources that break armies. But China aint germany or Japan in the middle of the twentieth century.

Do you know how much metal is in chinas infrastructure right now? They can recycle it. Plus chinas got access to mines in Africa And is strongly connected to fuel resources in the Middle East, Mongolia and Russia.

germany lasted 5 years in a world that was far poorer in resources. I’m pretty sure China can survive an invasion of Taiwan and keep going for quite a while after that. and again China has so much of the worlds critical manufacturing base. the west is going to suffer their own problems accessing manufactured goods.

again, history is your friend

in the great leap forward the chinese to meet steel quotas recycled perfectly good stuff just to hit quota. the steel was beyond s**t however. scrap is only good if its decent raw material and its being processed properly (something tough in war time)

china is already directing to focusing harder on scrap, but its not a dent in the amount they need (hence the ongoing focus on africa and brazil)

circling around, logistics win/loss means australia is an expensive distraction, especially if you have an invasion of Taiwan, Guam, and probably Japan and Korea happening, plus defending the home front from US and Indian invasion.

Taiwan makes sense, Korea due to 30k USA soldiers, and Japan purely on mutual loathing. Australia requires pacifying those three fronts, PLUS the entire of SE asia, just to get our iron - which they buy already

 

[Seeds]

again, history is your friend

in the great leap forward the chinese to meet steel quotas recycled perfectly good stuff just to hit quota. the steel was beyond sh*t however. scrap is only good if its decent raw material and its being processed properly (something tough in war time)

china is already directing to focusing harder on scrap, but its not a dent in the amount they need (hence the ongoing focus on africa and brazil)

circling around, logistics win/loss means australia is an expensive distraction, especially if you have an invasion of Taiwan, Guam, and probably Japan and Korea happening, plus defending the home front from US and Indian invasion.

Taiwan makes sense, Korea due to 30k USA soldiers, and Japan purely on mutual loathing. Australia requires pacifying those three fronts, PLUS the entire of SE asia, just to get our iron - which they buy already

The China of maos time and the China of now are completely different beasts.

the steel is good quality stuff now. And China has Used more steel in its infrastructure then any other country in the world. China uses steel in just ordinary roads it has bought so much of it.

i doubt China would be interested in invading australia. Other then for our iron ore resources. I.e. The thing that you think would constrain them is the very reason they might invade. But this is only in a world that is entering World war 3 and at that point I’m assuming nukes are being considered which one way or thé other ends the war probably before anyone invades Australia. but it’s not having 1 million soldiers tied up in Taiwan that is constraining them From invading Australia. It’s threat of nuclear war.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The China of maos time and the China of now are completely different beasts.

the steel is good quality stuff now. And China has Used more steel in its infrastructure then any other country in the world. China uses steel in just ordinary roads it has bought so much of it.

i doubt China would be interested in invading australia. Other then for our iron ore resources. I.e. The thing that you think would constrain them is the very reason they might invade. But this is only in a world that is entering World war 3 and at that point I’m assuming nukes are being considered which one way or thé other ends the war probably before anyone invades Australia. but it’s not having 1 million soldiers tied up in Taiwan that is constraining them From invading Australia. It’s threat of nuclear war.

the china of a 100 million person army isnt the china of today, and its resource starvation is akin to what Mao had to deal with

the USA also will not nuke anyone over australia. i doubt they would even do anything other than sanctions if we were. we are too expensive for them to defend (same reasons we are too expensive to invade)

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Infantry is only valuable post occupation or to deal with a counter-insurgancy.

China could have a 100 million well armed and trained crack troops, but if Australia ever develops ICBMs and nuclear armed ICBMs at that, which wouldn't be shocking under wartime conditions, then all that infantry isn't really that valuable.

Drone swarms and hypersonic missile tech is the future, not raw manpower.

 

[madmadworld]

One good thing about being a Yank. not having to worry about being invaded. other than migrants.