The Coming (R)evolution

[Drummond]

I agree with PsyCrow23 and Kane that Burton will at least go on till 2010 maybe longer, can't believe some people in the thread thinking that he'll retire next year surely his had injuries but with his supreme fitness level he'll be able to go on longer yet.

Oh, it's you again.

Did you mean to say, "sure he's had injuries"?

But anyway, Burton began his rapid decline this year.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Oh, it's you again.

Did you mean to say, "sure he's had injuries"?

But anyway, Burton began his rapid decline this year.

Rubbish!

Burton played injured this year thats why his production has been well below his standard. When he came back from surgery he strung some good games together only to injure another knee.

He is FAR from washed up!

 

[PsyCrow23]

Burton could have been All Australian last year IMO

 

[-VC-]

Everyone seems to be of the opinion we need a midfeilder. Vezpremi's name is getting thrown arourd a bit, but he may slip to the low 20's were we may have another pick. I dont think you could go wrong with the latest Selwood. He has a decent motor from what draft camp results say and he sounds like an honest performer. Maybe we should draft something we can count on. Also I think Levi Greenwood hurt his chances by pulling out with hamstring soreness before the 3km time trial.

I'd say it's more the other way around with Veszpremi and Selwood. Selwood could be there by our second pick but Veszpremi very unlikely. I know that Collingwood are interested with him and I'm pretty sure they will take him in the first round if he is there for them.

The thing is, I would define Veszpremi as a utility. He has played across the half back line in a sweeping role. I haven't really seen his defensive skills tested, but at the same time it's not that often we see McLeod's and Johncock's defensive skills tested so he plays that role well. He can in a leading forward role, similar to what you'd see a Brad Johnson, Mark Williams or Aaron Edwards do.

Selwood and Veszpremi are both hard, contested players but Selwood doesn't really show as much flair or game breaking abilities for my liking. A good, honest player but I don't really have him in my estimations as a Top 10 pick. He will be safe and reliable, which might appeal to the Crows but I'd be very surprised to see him go that early. Both of them are very quick off the mark. Veszpremi probably more explosive but Selwood quicker over longer distances.

 

[Mismatched]

Re: What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

Goodwin will retire I recon as will Biglands, Torney, Welsh (unless he kicks more than 50 goals) possibly Bassett unless he is injury free

I predict McLeod & Edwards will play on until 34-35 years old, & Macca to play 350 games

dunno why people recon Burton hes got a few years yet surely

Couldn't agree more here, Edwards has never lost more than 1 or 2 games with injury in his entire career and Mcleod has been really good in his past 5 years and is in his best shape.

Whilst it has been noted that Edwards skills have dropped off, I would say he is no worse than anyone else this year and with a good, more skill focused preseason he will be back to his silky best.

I am expecting to see Edwards and Mcleod for a long time yet, 2-3 years, no less, possibly more.

Anyway, currently they are part of a select group of 6 players who played every game for us this year and with our injury list like it has been over the past 2 years, we should try and hold onto the ones that arn't injury prone, especially the ones that can play.

 

[Mismatched]

I'm glad you started this thread. I was intrigued by your projections, because I too have done many. Although, we seem to have slightly varying forecasts...

etc.

Love your work SA_Stazza, couldn't agree more, great post.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Oh, it's you again.

Did you mean to say, "sure he's had injuries"?

But anyway, Burton began his rapid decline this year.

Burton was playing injured. He shouldn't have been playing at all, but the club decided to play him with all the other injuries.

Burton has showed no signs of decline.

 

[GlaCial]

Burton was playing injured. He shouldn't have been playing at all, but the club decided to play him with all the other injuries.

Burton has showed no signs of decline.

I think playing an injured Burton is fool-hardy. I just don't think he performs when injured. NC should have given a younger players a chance. The younger player gets invaluable experience and Burton gets time to get fully fit.

But I don't agree with the philosophy of playing unfit senior players. The younger, inexperienced players have to play sooner or later.

 

[Mismatched]

I think playing an injured Burton is fool-hardy. I just don't think he performs when injured. NC should have given a younger players a chance. The younger player gets invaluable experience and Burton gets time to get fully fit.

But I don't agree with the philosophy of playing unfit senior players. The younger, inexperienced players have to play sooner or later.

Completely agree here, Burton should not have been playing at the beginning of the year, clearly wasn't fit and struggling because of it, however when he came back later on he was back to his mecurial best, unfortunately his set shot goalkicking almost made travis cloak look comfortable in front of goals.

His instinctive footy was still at its best, unfortunately when there is time to think with Burton, you know an opposition goal is on the cards.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Interesting to read on the main board that almost every footy punter believes we will drop out of the 8 in 08...too old, too defensive apparently.

If it were up to me, it would be goodbye to Doughty (trade/pay contract), Bode, Torney (despite being a top player), Perrie along with Roo and Hudson (and Meesen of course). Along with this i am hoping Biglands is nothing more than back-up (we must persist with young rucks in first half of year, give them a decent run without chopping and changing every week). Blokes like Edwards and Goodwin to spend less persentage of time in the middle.

Suddenly the age factor not so great. In any case, the age/experience issue needs balance (and yes we on the wrong side of it if changes are not made)...its not like Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards, Bassett played like chumps this year.

As for being too defensive, it all comes down to our midfield allowing us to implement an attacking gameplan by winning enough clearances and providing enough decent inside 50s. Our defence will provide run, our forwards will prove the doubters wrong. IMO it's our so-called backboner midfielders must step up, win more clearances, be more direct. IF those blokes and our ruckmen can do the job this year, top 4 is certainly on the cards.

Hows this for a blend of youth/experience? Can this midfield do the job?

B: Bassett, Rutten, Pfeiffer
HB: McLeod, Bock, Goodwin
C: Knights, Reilly, Mattner
HF: Burton, Gill, Porplyzia
F: Johncock, Hentschel, Welsh
1R: Griffin, van Berlo, Thompson
I: Tippett, Douglas, Edwards, Stevens

E: Massie, Shirley, Maric

still got some promising players pushing for selection in Mackay, Vince, Campbell, pick 10! with some old heads in case of injury such as Biglands, McGregor, and the emergencies listed.

 

[Vader]

I guess I should justify why I predicted the retirements/delistings as I did.

Torney
To be honest, I wouldn't be at all surprised or disappointed to see him delisted this year. That's a big call, bound to be controversial. Yes, I acknowledge that he is a VERY good player and that he has had arguably his best ever season in 2007. However, he is already past his 30th birthday (mid-June) and his is one position where we have a surplus of other players capable of filling the role - Massie, Hinge & Pfeiffer coming quickly to mind. He may well play on in 2007, but I would be VERY surprised - and a little disappointed - if he is still around in 2009.

Edwards
Edwards remains durable, but his speed, decision making and skills are showing signs of deserting him. 2007 was not his greatest year, well down on 2005 & 2006. I don't expect him to have major injuries leading to an inevitable retirement (eg Roo), but I do expect the decline to become obvious next year - making a further contract extension untenable. Will be quietly tapped on the shoulder and asked to retire at the end of 2008.

Biglands
Nobody seems surprised to see his name on the list, so I won't elaborate further.

Massie
At only 27, Massie is certainly young enough to continue. However, Massie is firmly in the "backboner" camp - he's solid and dependable, without ever threatening to be exciting, spectacular or a matchwinner. I'm not expecting him to retire, I'm thinking that we need to be moving on these 26-29yo players who are holding us back, and 2008 is his time to depart.

Burton
It was hard to get a read on Burton's form this year, due to the number of games in which he was carrying an injury (particularly early in the season). The impression I got though was that injuries were starting to slow him down - and Burton minus the athleticism is not a good prospect. He might be able to go around in 2009, but why?

Doughty
I'd like to see him gone now, but he is contracted for 2008. Get rid of him as soon as the contract has expired.

McLeod
Having recently turned 31, Macca is the oldest player on our list. He's also one of our most durable. By the end of 2009 he will be 33, and the players who play into their 34th year in this competition are a VERY rare breed indeed. At this age, injuries can quickly turn an outstanding player into a very ordinary one (eg Roo 2007). The move to HBF has been good for him and he is rarely involved in physical contests these days - which reduces the wear & tear on his body. Even so, I can't see him being around in 2010.

Goodwin
By the start of 2010, Goody would be 33 years of age. He's never been our most durable player (which is why he has only 215 games to his credit) and he has continued playing in the midfield long after Macca got moved into defence. I really can't see Goodwin's body standing up to 3 more years of punishment - so 2009 will almost certainly be the end of the line.

Welsh
Our enigmatic and inconsistent medium forward. One more injury prone season (like 2006) would see the end of him, as the club's patience finally gives out. Given his history, the odds are pretty good that his body won't stand 3 more years. Also worth remembering that he's already 28 and the club won't be looking to retain him much past his 30th birthday because he's just not that good.

Shirley
At only 27, Shirley is the youngest player on my list of likely departures. The reason I have included him is because I will be VERY disappointed if he has not been overtaken on the list by several of our younger players. If he can no longer demand a place in the team, why would we be looking to retain him?

Bassett
The Hound will be 31 on Boxing Day this year. I would not be overly surprised to see him retire at the end of 2008, but I'm hoping he can go another year beyond that. This would make him 32 at retirement. Given that he's had a history of being moderately injury prone, it's hard to see him going any longer than that.

And a few other comments....

In general, I have been MUCH happier with our drafting under Craig than I was with Ayers. However, I remain critical of the way in which he has developed the youngsters he's brought into the side.

I don't blame him for the lack of games to Sellar, Tippett & MacKay this year. To do so would be foolish. However, I would like to know why Pfeiffer never had an opportunity, why Campbell only got one game and why Vince wasn't brought back into the side later in the year when his SANFL form was very good indeed. I would also like to know why Griffin was preferred to either of the M&Ms for R22 and the EF, two more games late in the season may have been just enough to convince Meesen that he DID have a future with the Crows.

As I stated in the initial post, we are looking down the barrel of losing a minimum of 10-11 players over the next two years - not just players from our list, but players from our best 22. If we are not careful, our team in 2011 will have 10+ players with less than 50 games of experience. That's a recipe for disaster.

Adelaide might not like the idea of bottoming out (finishing in the bottom 3), but our list management over the last decade has now made this all but inevitable. With all of our senior players retired, our middle aged players (26-29yo) not up to the additional responsibility, and a host of inexperienced youngsters (replacing the departing veterans), we may have no choice in the matter.

 

[KUNG FU]

I just can't see how any player can get 23 our of 23 games in a year and then be delisted. Should be retained at least for a year.

 

[Farmy]

Mcleod will play on until he is bored with playing afl at the age of 45.

In all seriousness, Mcleod is a freak, and I would not be surprised to see him play on past 35, 36. He seems to get better with age. And I also would not be surprised if his form remains at a similar level to what it is now, considering he is a freak and all.

I know people say it about Chris Judd, but mcleod in my opinion is a once in a generation player.

Bone on bone boys and girls, bone on bone.

 

[conVINCEd]

I would also like to know why Griffin was preferred to either of the M&Ms for R22 and the EF, two more games late in the season may have been just enough to convince Meesen that he DID have a future with the Crows.

Agree 100%. Meesen should have been playing in these two games.

Griffin gave us nothing, and even after being reinstated in R22, should have been dropped for the EF.

Keep up the great work too, Vader, its refreshing to read some decent footy discussion and analysis.

I should add, I think '08 will be Edwards' last year.

 

[Mong]

As I stated in the initial post, we are looking down the barrel of losing a minimum of 10-11 players over the next two years - not just players from our list, but players from our best 22.

But that's only because people here want to delist anyone in their latish 20s who is not a star. I don't think the club will do that for the very reason you've mentioned above. We will lose enough of the over 30 group in the next couple of years through natural attrition to keep our list ticking over.

 

[The Crows Truth]

Agree 100%. Meesen should have been playing in these two games.

Griffin gave us nothing, and even after being reinstated in R22, should have been dropped for the EF.

Hang on. Meese was next to useless in his 2 games - certainty didnt have 'pick me' tattooed on his ugly mug after a couple of pretty insipid displays

And you dont give players games - and certainly not finals games - as some sort of incentive to sign another contract.

 

[Drummond]

Hang on. Meese was next to useless in his 2 games - certainty didnt have 'pick me' tattooed on his ugly mug after a couple of pretty insipid displays

And you dont give players games - and certainly not finals games - as some sort of incentive to sign another contract.

Rock on man! In 31% and 39% game time he should’ve had “Hall of Famer” tattooed on his mug.

Did you watch the Lions game? He was better then either Lions ruckman, better than Wood who everyone is interested in. 9 hit-outs (4 to advantage) and 6 possessions in 39% game time, quite good I would've thought.

 

[The Crows Truth]

Rock on man! In 31% and 39% game time he should’ve had “Hall of Famer” tattooed on his mug.

Did you watch the Lions game? He was better then either Lions ruckman, better than Wood who everyone is interested in. 9 hit-outs (4 to advantage) and 6 possessions in 39% game time, quite good I would've thought.

i watched and was disappointed in both his outings. worst intensity level of any player i have seen in the tri-colours (inc pre-season appearance).

 

[Vader]

Hang on. Meese was next to useless in his 2 games - certainty didnt have 'pick me' tattooed on his ugly mug after a couple of pretty insipid displays

And you dont give players games - and certainly not finals games - as some sort of incentive to sign another contract.

His second game wasn't that bad - he did better than either Leuenburger or Wood, both of whom apparently have rave reviews. Put simply, compared to an established player he wasn't great - but compared to his peers he did OK.

Two weeks earlier, Griffin failed to show up when we played Geelong. He did naff all in the SANFL while Meesen was having a run - yet it was he who got promoted for R22 and the EF.

I'm not necessarily suggesting that Meesen should have been gifted the R22 & EF games, but he should not have been dropped unless there was a compelling reason to do so (ie Maric or Griffin showing good form in the SANFL). There was no compelling reason (Griffin was poor & Maric no better than average during those two weeks), so why NOT persevere with Meesen? The potential upside was that it may have made him decide to stay. I can't see any downside.

 

[ruscy002]

Frankly the writing was on the wall with Meesen halfway through the season. With the pathetic amount of gametime he got, the crows wouldve been far better off taking a risk and playing James Sellar as a pinch-hitting ruck/forward for a couple of games when he got some match fittness in the SANFL than playing the obvious walkout.

But this is Adelaide we're talking about. Why do something with a bit of risk attached to it? Got very little out of Griffin and Maric, Meesen was a waste of time...hindsight is 20-20 though isnt it?