The draft myth?

[beta_condition]

A lot of them are moving these days though. If not after their first contract, then after their second.

Just my opinion but players you've drafted and developed your self should have part of their salary outside the cap. This would help bottom teams maintain their young talent.

Of course this would be hard to introduce with out causing some unbalancing.

 

[Debris]

A lot of them are moving these days though. If not after their first contract, then after their second.

That's my point. They are already leaving for where they want so draft does not fix the "destination clubs" issue. The salary cap stops most of this sort of nonsense anyway. Money rules all when it comes to deciding where to play.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Since 2000 the AFL have had

Essendon
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Sydney
West Coast
Geelong
Hawthorn
Collingwood

win the flag and to be honest that really is not a lot of clubs for 16 years. Even worse if you only consider since 2007 as then you only have

Geelong
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Sydney

so 4 teams winning the flag in 9 years is pitiful.

To really determine the spread of "success" we should look at preliminary finalists because at the end of the day it's extremely hard to win a premiership and luck and injuries come into the fold.

North 00 07 14 15
Melb 00
Ess 00 01
Carl 00
Rich 01
Bris 01 02 03 04
Haw 01 08 11 12 13 14 15
Coll 02 03 07 09 10 11 12
Adel 02 05 06 12
Port 02 03 04 07 14
Syd 03 05 06 12 13 14
StK 04 05 08 09 10
Geel 04 07 08 09 10 11 13
WCE 05 06 11 15
Fre 06 13 15
WB 08 09 10

 

[Jables]

The draft isn't the problem for the clubs that have been mired in mediocrity, talent identification and development is. I feel far more confident in a Hawthorn second rounder than I would have with a Melbourne number 1 pick. How do zones for example fix that? Maybe some clubs would undeservedly stumble upon talent a bit more, but they'd still have no clue how to stop talent stagnating. Some clubs had great zones but they still didn't win shit, Geelong and South Melbourne for example.

I hate the Patriots but they just keep winning because they just keep drafting well, Belichick and Brady wouldn't win shit if they didn't have anything around them, same as anyone else.

 

[Mitchell54]

Hodge was a priority pick. Roughead was a priority pick. I don't think you are grasping that. And I don't know I can explain this to you more simply. Yes you had to trade into Freo to get that priority pick from them but it is still a priority pick.

I am not basing Hawthorns success on priority picks at all. Hawks have done everything you would want from a team as the system in play at the time allowed.

To give another example of priority picks, my team were entitled to one in the 2006 draft. But the rules were changed by the AFL for that draft to move priority picks to after the end of the first round. So we picked Gumbleton with our first pick at 2. And then with our priority pick we selected Leroy Jetta. I should be salty because of the players involved, but the AFL were mucking around with the rules as to how priority picks were allocated. If the rules werent changed, then I might be watching Boak, or Selwood or Jack Riewoldt running around in the red and black.

I wouldn't like that. We wouldn't be seeing them for a whole year. would really damage their careers. Why do you wish such horrible things to people? jeeez!!

 

[MarkT2]

Yep. Not nearly enough entitlement mentality appeasement in the AFL. How dare a team win more than one flag without being torn apart. I'm not sure we need a draft with a cap but if we have to have it, the only way to have a fair and even draft is to rotate the order so every team gets pick 1 every 18 years followed by pick 18 the following year.

 

[stew42]

I agree with the idea that for the top clubs, having high draft picks isn't really that important. Look at Sydney. In our 2012 premiership year we had two first round draft picks: McVeigh and Rohan. We had 8 players from the Rookie Draft on the ground Nick Smith, Heath Grundy, Dane Rampe, Harry Cunningham, Mike Pyke, Kieren Jack, Jake Lloyd and Craig Bird. Then we had steals such as Parker at pick 40, Hannebury at pick 30, Sam Reid at 38, Malceski at 64, and we traded Ben McGlynn and Josh Kennedy for picks 39, 46, and 70.

Of course that's changed these days with the academy/father son changes, but the point still stands.

 

[thejester]

It's nothing like that at all.

If a group of clubs have a period of success the feeling seems to be we need to exclude them from free agency or, in a particularly peculiar suggestion, remove the draft and throw the perennially shit completely to the wolves.

How about bad teams make better choices?

I'd characterize that less as being 'hindering good clubs' and more just acknowledging that there's a limit to structural solutions to the problem of clubs making bad choices.

 

[swiftdog]

Oh, come on. Finish fourth and no free agents?

Yep, the obsession with top 4 among AFL fans is ridiculous. More often than not there's a top 2-3 then a drop-off. Would anyone really begrudge North Melbourne picking up a free agent this year? Sometimes your 4th ranked side needs a shrewd FA signing to become a real flag threat. Using my own team as an example, we were off the pace of Geelong and St.Kilda up to 2009 - pick up Ball and Jolly and we become number 1 (plus the gameplan). Free agency wasn't around at the time but the point remains the same, your fourth best team isn't always a real premiership threat and to deny them FA access because the finals system is based around a top 4 is ridiculous and short-sighted.

I've always believed that FA is to top up those teams that aren't quite there yet. Lower teams looking to re-build can stock up on draft picks/younger players (provided the right decisions are made of course).

 

[Carl]

Another thread about changing the game for no reason. Just leave the game alone and stop thinking changing the draft/ rules or any other crap will make the game better.

Next thing people will be saying not enough goals are kicked, so we should widen the goal posts. People love the game for what it is and not for what it can become.

 

[Tiger2709]

From '67 to '89 only 5 clubs shared the 22 flags available, from 1990 to 2015 the flags have been shared between 11 clubs, so it suggests the draft and other equalisation methods are working, but maybe the top clubs are figuring out new ways to get an advantage outside the draft, such as football dept spending.

 

[Debris]

Another thread about changing the game for no reason. Just leave the game alone and stop thinking changing the draft/ rules or any other crap will make the game better.

Next thing people will be saying not enough goals are kicked, so we should widen the goal posts. People love the game for what it is and not for what it can become.

I have stated my reasons why. It is pretty cruel to send teenagers across the country from their family and friends if it serves no purpose. Do you hate AFL players that much?

 

[beta_condition]

I have stated my reasons why. It is pretty cruel to send teenagers across the country from their family and friends if it serves no purpose. Do you hate AFL players that much?

Then don't play football if the burden of leaving family is so awful. You can't have your cake and eat it too, it's life grow the fk up.

 

[DrEvil_]

I have stated my reasons why. It is pretty cruel to send teenagers across the country from their family and friends if it serves no purpose. Do you hate AFL players that much?

It pretty cruel to pay teenager hundreds of thousands a year to kick a football? Can you please be cruel to me? You make the draft sound like conscription

 

[Crankyhawk]

The draft should be simple. Honestly, how hard is it to line it all up and base it upon ladder position? But no, the AFL have had to try and be too clever by half and introduce fluid and discretionary priority picks. I mean look at Hawthorn. Before any Hawks supporters get their knickers in a twist they should be commended for astute trading, and drafting. But Hodge and Roughead and to a lesser extent Ellis as priority picks is too much. When they nailed their picks around the priority picks, is it any wonder they are the juggernaut they are now. Particularly when the compromised drafts for the expansion clubs meant that no one could get access to high end talent.

The draft is fine ... If the AFL dont **** around with it and make things up on the go

How is hodge a PP?

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Then don't play football if the burden of leaving family is so awful. You can't have your cake and eat it too, it's life grow the fk up.

This needs to be more widely accepted by draftees.

 

[The Goon]

I might be in the minority but, unless the Saints can win #2 or the Dockers/Suns/Giants can win their first, Id love to see the Hawks win 4 in a row.

Doggies? Melbourne? Tigers?
Surely some feel-good droughts to be broken there ahead of Hawks getting another one.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Is it really that bad?

How do those stats compare to pre-2000? How do they compare to other team sports like Soccer, Baseball, Basketball, Cricket?

It doesn't seem that bad.

Since 1999,
- 16 clubs have made a grand final (no Tigers or Bulldogs)
- 18 clubs have made a prelim (all except Gold Coast and GWS)

how do you get 16 clubs have made a GF? Tigers, Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS and Gold Coast at least haven't made one from my count

 

[footyfan1978]

how do you get 16 clubs have made a GF? Tigers, Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS and Gold Coast at least haven't made one from my count

Guess you were asleep or not living in 1997 and 1998.

His counting is wrong though.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Guess you were asleep or not living in 1997 and 1998.

His counting is wrong though.

I wasnt asleep... i come from a place where 1997 and 1998 come before 1999. Not sure where you come from

 

[Fastback]

From '67 to '89 only 5 clubs shared the 22 flags available, from 1990 to 2015 the flags have been shared between 11 clubs, so it suggests the draft and other equalisation methods are working, but maybe the top clubs are figuring out new ways to get an advantage outside the draft, such as football dept spending.

I was just about to post the same stat...didn't take a lot of research to put this one to bed.

There are many factors which determine the success and sustained success of a club.

1 - Luck at the draft table. Only 30% of the top 20 picked go on to be decent players and make a significant contribution to their club...if they remain there. The draft remains a lottery and is no guarantee for success.

2 - Culture, which sees players remaining at the club on less than their market value...this is a big one. Bris & Syd (albeit with a little extra), Cats & Hawks all kept their 1st and 2nd tier players together for a long period and didn't see any major movements until flags were won.

3 - Once a club establishes itself as a contender it becomes more desirable for a free agent wanting success before their career is over. This allows the club to recruit ready made players to fill any voids or strengthen certain areas immediately. By far the most impact.

 

[L_W_P]

Doggies? Melbourne? Tigers?
Surely some feel-good droughts to be broken there ahead of Hawks getting another one.

Nup. The only drought Id want broken is the Saints for obvious reasons.

 

[MarkT2]

This needs to be more widely accepted by draftees.

It is. They go to where they are drafted.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I'm like a lone voice in here. Freos pick 1 that Hawks traded Croad and McPharlin for, was a priority pick. Freo as they finished with the wooden spoon were rewarded with the priority pick. At that time priority picks were awarded prior to the start of the first round of the national draft. So Freo had the priority pick which was 1. Plus pick 4 after Saints and West Coast used their priority picks. Without the priority picks, pick 4 would have become pick one ... and more likely than not Hodge, Ball or Judd would have worn a Dockers jumper.

You are underestimating the silliness of the dockers at the time.

 

[Elvis]

You are underestimating the silliness of the dockers at the time.

haha, Bomber fans are well aware of the silliness of the Dockers trades