The Final 8

[CaptainDangerfield]

Here's my crack at the final 8, ignoring possible upsets:

WC - 18 wins
Adel - 14 wins -%
Geel - 14 wins - %
Melb - 14 wins - %
St K - 14wins - %
Syd - 14 wins - %
Port - 13.5 wins
Kangas and Brisbane fighting out for 8th spot - Kangas by a nose with 13 wins to Brissies 12.

I'm not real comfortable with Melbourne at 4 as they have a tough run home. But you would think they would be good enough to win 5 of 9. The Saints could pinch 4th spot from them on %.

 

[DaveW]

Yikes, what a log jam from 2nd to 6th you have there.

And for the Kangas to finish with 13 wins would make them the best 8th placed side since... well certainly since we've had the final eight.

I'd have something similar - not in wins but in positions. I'm also quietly confident of us finishing 2nd. Whilst of all the teams in the top eight, Richmond look the most iffy. Not sold on the Swans and Kangas either.

Brisbane and Port are starting to threaten - not so much for the premiership, but they might take the scalps of some hopefuls.

I'd have to analyse the draw to draw (sic) up a final table.

 

[- PC -]

Here's my crack at the final 8, ignoring possible upsets:

WC - 18 wins
Adel - 14 wins -%
Geel - 14 wins - %
Melb - 14 wins - %
St K - 14wins - %
Syd - 14 wins - %
Port - 13.5 wins
Kangas and Brisbane fighting out for 8th spot - Kangas by a nose with 13 wins to Brissies 12.

I'm not real comfortable with Melbourne at 4 as they have a tough run home. But you would think they would be good enough to win 5 of 9. The Saints could pinch 4th spot from them on %.

Nostradamus strikes again

Post 32 A Long Time Ago

And Post 33 Too

Its interesting to go back over threads and see how close you come..some of my wins and losses have been very close.

 

[Cap]

1st question is really can we beat Brisbane in brisbane, Port in a derby, WC at subi ? there is three potential losses leaving us needing the 6 to win to get to 14 -

I'm still living in the NC world - once we get 12 wins I will be happy

although one thing disappoints me - Port will get better picks than us 1 yr after winning the flag

 

[- PC -]

1st question is really can we beat Brisbane in brisbane, Port in a derby, WC at subi ? there is three potential losses leaving us needing the 6 to win to get to 14 -

1. I dont worry too much about what Port do and dont get .. thats the system in place so be it.

2. Subiaco holds no fears for the Crows ...35,000 panadol to the house of pain was my sms to my mates .

3. Brisbane have lost more at home than won. I think the game we lost here will stand us in good stead.

4. Port will be a lot more difficult this time around. But you still have to be confident.

 

[DaveW]

1st question is really can we beat Brisbane in brisbane, Port in a derby, WC at subi ? there is three potential losses leaving us needing the 6 to win to get to 14 -

We don't have a return game against Brisbane. The other two are the our toughest of our remaining nine games.

Besides, we CAN beat Port in a derby.

I'm still living in the NC world - once we get 12 wins I will be happy

That's setting your sights low. We have to build on the strong start we've made.

 

[- PC -]

Remaining games (a) = away (aa) = aami

Adelaide v Fremantle aa
Hawthorn a
Bulldogs aa
Kangaroos a
Sydney aa
Melbourne aa
Port aa
Collingwood aa
West Coast a

Bolded are my wins and possibles are Melbourne home and Port home. I also think Subiaco wont be as bad as we think.oops and Kangas are a chance to be beaten

 

[Fergus]

Here's my final 8:
West Coast
Geelong
Melbourne
Adelaide
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane

 

[snakebite01]

Remaining games (a) = away (aa) = aami

Adelaide v Fremantle aa
Hawthorn a
Bulldogs aa
Kangaroos a
Sydney aa
Melbourne aa
Port aa
Collingwood aa
West Coast a

Bolded are my wins and possibles are Melbourne home and Port home. I also think Subiaco wont be as bad as we think.oops and Kangas are a chance to be beaten

I think we'll beat Melbourne quite easily. We have ther wood over them in Adelaide plus they will be coming off a gruelling schedule in which they would have travelled to Adelaide, Brisbane and Subi in the last 5 weeks.

I also think we'll beat the Kangas at the Dome. We are a better side than them and the Dome suits us to a tee.

Agree with losses to Port and West Coast.

 

[Tas]

I doubt Port will make the finals. They have 3 home games against interstate opposition, they have a neutral game against the Crows and five away games. They play some decent teams amongst that lot. Brisbane will pass them easily.

As you can see from your prediction, not a whole lot of margin for error, if you drop games you expect to win it could be trouble for any team other than the Eagles.

Next month will be crucial. Games that will be critical are the ones where the top 10 play eachother. Our only interstate game left is against Sydney so I think we should make it. If we knock off some of the interstate teams at home then as laughable as it sounds we could end up in the top 4 because we still have games against Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn and Collingwood aswell, we could end in the 14-15 game range if things go our way. We have a sucky percentage though but play some spankable teams.

It has been a bizzare year.

 

[Tas]

I also think we'll beat the Kangas at the Dome. We are a better side than them and the Dome suits us to a tee.

Better is a week by week proposition. Most clubs that lose to us think they are better than us. At the end of the day it comes down to who wins the contests, who has a good day. Good teams lose, great teams lose. To win away from home is much more difficult than to win at home.

There has not been a whole lot of difference between our clubs for some time, it usually comes down to who plays better on the day/night when we play irrespective of venue.

 

[Cap]

I realise we have to be confident but we also have to realise that this is a rebuilding year. that seems to be the problem with us crwos supporters we get too carried away sometimes.

Ok we have one 8 games to 5 losses but we have to remember what we are dealing with. young (in experience) players who are inconsistent and could fade in the last part of the year due to the preseason that NC put them through and lack of a full season of AFL. I'll be waiting until the 12 wins and then celbrate NC's coaching.

the test will come next year - 2nd year blues will be a massive test

 

[DaveW]

To write the season off as a rebuilding year is a complete cop out. You've got to make the most of your chances when they're given to you. How long are Ricciuto, McLeod and Hart going to be around for? Goodwin and Edwards aren't spring chickens either.

Besides we haven't exactly played a lot of rookies this year. One in fact: Van Berlo. He's had what, three games with limited gametime? The side isn't as young as is sometimes made out.

We've got the right mix to have a crack this year.

1997 was a rebuilding year too.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Here's my final 8:
West Coast
Geelong
Melbourne
Adelaide
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane

I reckon we will finish above melbourne on % as they have a tough draw.

 

[snakebite01]

Better is a week by week proposition. Most clubs that lose to us think they are better than us. At the end of the day it comes down to who wins the contests, who has a good day. Good teams lose, great teams lose. To win away from home is much more difficult than to win at home.

There has not been a whole lot of difference between our clubs for some time, it usually comes down to who plays better on the day/night when we play irrespective of venue.

IMO, player for player we have a better side than you and for the first time in a number of years our spirit and team orientated game matches the Kangas too.

We don't have as much difficulty winning away from home as most teams do. This year we have 4-3 W/L record away from home compared to a 4-2 W/L record at home.

No doubt if we are a couple of % off then the Kangas would smash us, but this year we are rarely off our game and I just have a good feeling about that game. Whoever wins it will be in the driving seat for a top 4 finish though, with both teams having relatively easy runs home besides that game.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I doubt Port will make the finals. They have 3 home games against interstate opposition, they have a neutral game against the Crows and five away games. They play some decent teams amongst that lot. Brisbane will pass them easily.

As you can see from your prediction, not a whole lot of margin for error, if you drop games you expect to win it could be trouble for any team other than the Eagles.

Next month will be crucial. Games that will be critical are the ones where the top 10 play eachother. Our only interstate game left is against Sydney so I think we should make it. If we knock off some of the interstate teams at home then as laughable as it sounds we could end up in the top 4 because we still have games against Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn and Collingwood aswell, we could end in the 14-15 game range if things go our way. We have a sucky percentage though but play some spankable teams.

It has been a bizzare year.

I reckon the Kangas will need to win 7 of their next 9 to make the top 4 ( 15 wins ). You would expect at least 3 of Adelaide, Geelong, Melbourne, Saints or Sydney to finish with 14 wins which would probably knock you guys out of the 4 on % if you only win 6 of 9.

But then again, who knows, anything is possible this year.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Remaining games (a) = away (aa) = aami

Adelaide v Fremantle aa
Hawthorn a
Bulldogs aa
Kangaroos a
Sydney aa
Melbourne aa
Port aa
Collingwood aa
West Coast a

Bolded are my wins and possibles are Melbourne home and Port home. I also think Subiaco wont be as bad as we think.oops and Kangas are a chance to be beaten

You would expect us to beat Hawth, WB, Syd and Collingwood. All the rest are iffy's. Freo could be a danger game as who knows how they will play.

 

[Jars458]

Worst Case we win 5 games

Best Case we win 8 games

 

[Cap]

To write the season off as a rebuilding year is a complete cop out. You've got to make the most of your chances when they're given to you. How long are Ricciuto, McLeod and Hart going to be around for? Goodwin and Edwards aren't spring chickens either.

Besides we haven't exactly played a lot of rookies this year. One in fact: Van Berlo. He's had what, three games with limited gametime? The side isn't as young as is sometimes made out.

We've got the right mix to have a crack this year.

1997 was a rebuilding year too.

thats why I said young in experience not in age !!

your right these guys aren;t going to be around for ever thats why we should be playing the younger guys

I'm not writing it off in the way you mean - I just understand that rebuilding doesn't always = wins and yes you take your chances but sometimes you have to be realistic - is a another top 4 finish more important that getting 5-10 more games into some of the younger guys ??

Its great that we have got Bock,Rutten and Mattner playing well but as you said they aren't going to replace roo and co are they

 

[outback jack]

thats why I said young in experience not in age !!

your right these guys aren;t going to be around for ever thats why we should be playing the younger guys

I'm not writing it off in the way you mean - I just understand that rebuilding doesn't always = wins and yes you take your chances but sometimes you have to be realistic - is a another top 4 finish more important that getting 5-10 more games into some of the younger guys ??

Its great that we have got Bock,Rutten and Mattner playing well but as you said they aren't going to replace roo and co are they

age is what we need. It means we are not rebuilding to the extent of other clubs.

 

[DB10]

West Coast
Geelong
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
St Kilda
Port
Kangaroos

*shrug*

 

[Cap]

age is what we need. It means we are not rebuilding to the extent of other clubs.

 

[outback jack]

 

[DaveW]

I'm not writing it off in the way you mean - I just understand that rebuilding doesn't always = wins and yes you take your chances but sometimes you have to be realistic - is a another top 4 finish more important that getting 5-10 more games into some of the younger guys ??

I'd say yes, but firstly: which younger guys?

 

[outback jack]

I'd say yes, but firstly: which younger guys?

massie, scott stevens, ladhams, doughty, begley u know all those young players we have.

And the top4 is more important, but it would be a waste of a season if we didnt get atleast 5 games into watts, knights and VB sometime in the second half of the season. Realistically a premiership is beyond us, and we need progress. Doesnt mean we dont have a crack should the cards fall our way either.