The Inevitable War - Keating goes bang

[Taylor]

How so?

One of those already has border skirmishes and the nationalism of India is far more motivated than the nationalism of the USA. India has quite an apparatus at the moment pushing the narrative that the Muslims are causing a lot of their problems and should that be more convenient for the Chinese to be the problem it will inflame the tensions. I don't see a nation like Pakistan rushing to befriend China.

 

[Gethelred]

One of those already has border skirmishes and the nationalism of India is far more motivated than the nationalism of the USA. India has quite an apparatus at the moment pushing the narrative that the Muslims are causing a lot of their problems and should that be more convenient for the Chinese to be the problem it will inflame the tensions. I don't see a nation like Pakistan rushing to befriend China.

That's an impetus for India to go to war with China, how is this going to get Australia involved?

 

[Taylor]

That's an impetus for India to go to war with China, how is this going to get Australia involved?

I'm expecting Australia and India to fomalise defense alliance treaties over the next six months.

Do you believe the Australian PM being toured on Indian aircraft carriers yesterday signals less military joint action? We might even be buying that technology from India.

 

[Power Raid]

Xi has done a good job of populating the CCP with people loyal to him, and removing pretty much anyone who isn't, but China is a lot less wedding to authoritarianism than Russia is IMO, so the CCP would knife Xi if it came to an existential crisis of the party and sending China in to a war.

China plays the long game far better than Russia does, and it's paying off for them in spades these last few decades. They're not liked globally, but they're a vital piece of the global economy and with Russia rapidly falling down the ranks of global powers with every day the war drags on, China is now a clear #2 in the global order.

According to Chinese SOEs the covid lockdown was a political move for exactly what you highlight

according to Chinese SOE, this lock down is by design so Xi secures absolute control over parliament in March

essentially his vice pres (who he doesn't like) gets voted out

which has now happened

Xi Jinping tears up China's modern political rule book, securing third term as president

Xi Jinping officially kicks off his norm-busting third term as China's president, solidifying his position as one of the communist nation's most powerful leaders in generations.

www.abc.net.au

The driver behind stacking the power position with stooges, according to Chinese SOEs, is to run a war without having to worry about internal pressure. We have to remember just because he has done this, means there will be a war.

but we must listen to the Chinese when they say they will commit to taking Taiwan by force within 2 years and make active steps in preparation (be that political or weapons build up).

 

[Power Raid]

I'm expecting Australia and India to fomalise defense alliance treaties over the next six months.

Do you believe the Australian PM being toured on Indian aircraft carriers yesterday signals less military joint action? We might even be buying that technology from India.

agree

The significance of India is important:
1) they are the "sheriff" in the Indian Ocean with the most to lose from the String of Pearls and very quickly seeking to build a rival infrastructure
2) If India were to fall, where will the west find another billion potential soldiers; and more importantly
2a) where will the US get there oil to feed their economy and war machine?

The US produces light crude but consume heavy crude. The sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are paramount. The US know this and China knows this and thus the string of pearls and in response the Quad.

 

[Schneebly11]

WW1 should be over by Christmas of 1914
France has the biggest Military in Europe, Hitler would be wiped out if he took them on
Korea is just a UN Police Action
Vietnam can not outlast a sustained US presence

A China/US war can be contained

'We know where they (Iragi WMDs) are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad, and east, west, south and north somewhat..' - Donald Rumsfeld

"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed" - George W Bush, 2003

 

[Schneebly11]

So the 40 murdered Indian soldiers on the LAC

Sorry, WTF are you talking about?

India/China have organised fist fights up in the Himalayas for years. No guns, just clubs, rocks and good old fists. Probably lots of martial arts going on too. Most Indian soldiers died of hypothermia or falling off the ridgeline, and a similar number of Chinese were killed.

Sounds like a good action movie tbh, but "murdered" is the wrong descriptor.

 

[Schneebly11]

There is absolutely no indication that China is going to invade India, Japan or anywhere else. It's a giant beat up. It started here with Dutton trying to create fear to win votes.

Has anyone looked at a picture of the area between China and India? It's the Himalayas, 8000m mountains with no vehicle passes save the odd gravel road which only a Jeep can drive through. China would have an easier time of invading Australia than invading India (or India invading China btw).

Nations need a reason to invade. US invades the ME for resources and to install geopolitically friendly governments. Russia invades Ukraine for resources (gas and wheat) and to install a friendly government that will buffer them from the West.

China has access to resources at the moment through good business and trade strategy. Now if the US cut off trade (blocking the Strait of Malacca for instance) the Chinese would retaliate if their land BRI routes wouldn't be able to take the slack. Other chokes points the US or indian navies could target are the South China Sea and Indian Ocean shipping routes.

So any conflict in the sub continent could be related to cutting off China's routes overland, through the Pakistan corridor to Gwadar port and the routes through Iran, the 5 Stans and now Afghanistan into Western China. It won't happen around the Himalayas but further west.

 

[Taylor]

Watch for China and India seeking to control the melt runoff from the mountain range with tunnels and the other taking it as seriously as they should. China is in deep trouble in regards to water security.

 

[Power Raid]

Sorry, WTF are you talking about?

India/China have organised fist fights up in the Himalayas for years. No guns, just clubs, rocks and good old fists. Probably lots of martial arts going on too. Most Indian soldiers died of hypothermia or falling off the ridgeline, and a similar number of Chinese were killed.

Sounds like a good action movie tbh, but "murdered" is the wrong descriptor.

A couple of changes have happened over the years, with China building auto bahns and villages in and towards Bhutan (a protectorate of India)

China Is Building Entire Villages in Another Country’s Territory

Since 2015, a previously unnoticed network of roads, buildings, and military outposts has been constructed deep in a sacred valley in Bhutan.

foreignpolicy.com

This lead to India seeking to secure 15% of the world's tungsten supply (a war metal)

a few ago I was hired by the Indian government to secure 15% of the world's tungsten supply. They claimed it was for tungsten light bulbs!

A long story short after they disclosed it was for preparations for war with china (in the case the plateau, chicken neck and bhutan got hotter AND the string of Pearls. I said "I don't want to offend, but if I was a betting man I would put my money on china. So what is your geopolitical strategy? Partner with the US?"

The response was no, not initially. Rather wait for Russia to commit to us and then work with the US as Russia is our military ally and Russia may not back us if the US was there.

They also said "Russia is a conservative christian place and would be reluctant to lose lives to protect brown people"

Perhaps that last comment may explain the closer to alignment to the US. What is certain is big tectonic plates are shifting.

Things between china and india have cooled since then but india has invested heavily in offsetting china's OBOR and SOP war infrastructure

 

[sdfc]

A couple of changes have happened over the years, with China building auto bahns and villages in and towards Bhutan (a protectorate of India)

China Is Building Entire Villages in Another Country’s Territory

Since 2015, a previously unnoticed network of roads, buildings, and military outposts has been constructed deep in a sacred valley in Bhutan.

foreignpolicy.com

This lead to India seeking to secure 15% of the world's tungsten supply (a war metal)



Things between china and india have cooled since then but india has invested heavily in offsetting china's OBOR and SOP war infrastructure

Time to stop expanding now thanks China

 

[QuietB]

Some of their finest work - this is excellent.

Top two zingers;

IT'S (not) WAR!

mailchi.mp

 

[sydney_gws]

Whst is wrong with India and China. Why not be friends, Germany and France are. Personally I am glad we are a long long long way from them both . My view is we should have a bit of a relationship with all countries, have trade, encourage tourism between the countries.
We don't need to be a net importer of skilled labour though in my view.
Train our own people better. Get more older people into the workforce.

As for India telling us what to do about temples, look in your own backyard .Help your own millions of malnourished children as a priority.

 

[Gethelred]

Some of their finest work - this is excellent.

Top two zingers;

View attachment 1626137
View attachment 1626138

IT'S (not) WAR!

mailchi.mp

I'm something of a fan of this one:

1. VALIDATE THEIR FEELINGS
Your children may feel the need to ask questions like "wait mummy why are you panicking if we're not at war" and "is this really a responsible way to use your platform?"

The best response to these questions is to report your child to ASIO immediately, as clearly they've been brainwashed by the enemy.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Whst is wrong with India and China. Why not be friends, Germany and France are. Personally I am glad we are a long long long way from them both . My view is we should have a bit of a relationship with all countries, have trade, encourage tourism between the countries.
We don't need to be a net importer of skilled labour though in my view.
Train our own people better. Get more older people into the workforce.

As for India telling us what to do about temples, look in your own backyard .Help your own millions of malnourished children as a priority.

So ICBM's?

 

[Power Raid]

what I don't understand about super powers, is they want to export their "culture" and control other nations.

would you want US, Chinese, India or Russian government controlling you? I'd much rather NZ, sweden etc

perhaps super powers need to learn rather than think they can teach

 

[Kwality]

I'm expecting Australia and India to fomalise defense alliance treaties over the next six months.

Do you believe the Australian PM being toured on Indian aircraft carriers yesterday signals less military joint action? We might even be buying that technology from India.

India has a relationship/shared interests with both the east & the west - that wont change until India is backed into a corner.
China sending its aircraft carrier to the Indian Ocean wont do that.

 

[Schneebly11]

Would have been good for Albanese to pressure Modi to stop supporting Russia, given apparently that’s why we are told we need to hate China. But he didn’t. Also Modi’s oppressive policies towards Muslims in Kashmir, given we’re meant to hate China for supposedly oppressing Muslims in Xinjiang. He didn’t.

Also sad to see him drawn into Modi’s domestic Hindu nationalism campaign against some Sikh groups.

 

[kranky al]

Why the hell would China attack India?

Comment aged poorly

 

[kranky al]

Has anyone looked at a picture of the area between China and India? It's the Himalayas, 8000m mountains with no vehicle passes save the odd gravel road which only a Jeep can drive through. China would have an easier time of invading Australia than invading India (or India invading China btw).

Nations need a reason to invade. US invades the ME for resources and to install geopolitically friendly governments. Russia invades Ukraine for resources (gas and wheat) and to install a friendly government that will buffer them from the West.

China has access to resources at the moment through good business and trade strategy. Now if the US cut off trade (blocking the Strait of Malacca for instance) the Chinese would retaliate if their land BRI routes wouldn't be able to take the slack. Other chokes points the US or indian navies could target are the South China Sea and Indian Ocean shipping routes.

So any conflict in the sub continent could be related to cutting off China's routes overland, through the Pakistan corridor to Gwadar port and the routes through Iran, the 5 Stans and now Afghanistan into Western China. It won't happen around the Himalayas but further west.

All of this is why countries build multiple aircraft carrier groups.

 

[QuietB]

Comment aged poorly

Why

 

[Schneebly11]

So just discovered this transcript of a Today Show (Ch 9) interview this week between host Sarah Abo, Bill Shorten and a 2GB host (O Keefe). We’ve reached a parallel universe where a 2GB host is the voice of reason, pointing out the obvious about ASPI which isn’t said enough in mainstream media, along with Shorten showing the current government isn’t buying into SMH/Age’s scaremonger campaign:

ABO: Well, I think none of this may even matter if the front page of the SMH is to be believed. If we're going to be at war with China in the next three years. I mean, there is a warning that our armed forces are woefully underprepared. It's quite alarming, Bill. The threat from China, it's always been there. It has been escalating, certainly. But do you see conflict in our very near future?

SHORTEN: Oh, I'm not going to start speculating or inflaming any war talk this morning over breakfast. I mean, we've got the Reserve Bank doing its thing. That's probably where my head's at and the local stuff. It's important that we stabilise our relationship with China. In the last few months, we've seen the Prime Minister and several ministers hold very constructive bilateral discussions. We've got to prioritise national security. Labor will always do that. In terms of China, we should, you know, engage where we can disagree where we must and of course try and find the points of common interest, but at all the time maintaining Australia's interests.

ABO: But the reality is we aren't prepared for war with China.

SHORTEN: Say that question again, sorry?

ABO: The reality is we simply aren't prepared for war. We just don't have enough ammunition. We don't have enough firepower.

SHORTEN: Well, Labor's doing a Defence Force review. That's a sensible thing. It hasn't been done for a long time. But I'm just not going to start fuelling this sort of pretty hot and fevered discussion that it was on the front page of the paper today. I don't think you know, I don't think that gets us anywhere.

ABO: It's alarming though, Chris, isn't it?

O’KEEFE: But it's a hysterical the reporting. Now, I know that Nine owns the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, so there our colleagues, but the reporting this morning is hysterical. Now, if you've got the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who are the ones saying, ‘Oh, well, we could be going to war in three years’, well, they're funded by the Australian Defence Force, Lockheed Martin, Thales and Boeing. Defence material companies that provide, need money to provide, defence hardware to Australia. So, where's the bread buttered here? And I just think that it does Australia no good having discussions about going to war in three years. It's hysterical, it is over the top. And the CIA, the chief of the CIA said, well, President Xi actually has said we'll get your army prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. However, they're thinking to themselves, well, maybe we can't do it. In that same article, it says the President Xi is now considering whether or not it's an achievable outcome, invading Taiwan. None of that's in the newspaper, but we're talking about going to war in three years. How is that good when someone wakes up in the morning and says, Oh, no. Everybody knows China is a threat, a strategic threat, but going to war in three years. Talk about scaring the pants off people for no reason.

ABO: I mean, it does seem a bit unrealistic. I guess the main point of it is that we aren't prepared. We don't have –

O’KEEFE: Prepared for what?

ABO: Well, we don't have any of the defence -

O’KEEFE: Prepared for what? Is this going to be, Kokoda Mach 2? Is that what we're talking about? Well, no one no one can explain to me what we're supposed to be prepared for. I mean, do you how big Australia is? Do you know how hard it’d be to attack?

ABO: There's a lot of people in China.

O’KEEFE: What are we supposed to do? Do we think their armada is going to show up in Darwin? Please. Come on. Can we just settle down a bit and have an adult conversation about this?

SHORTEN: Okay, listen, Field Marshal Christian, you know, Admiral Sarah, just. I think there was something Chris said. Look, I'm not going to wake up this morning and start saying Australians should be, you know, gigantically alarmed. We've got to work with China, but we always have to maintain our own national security and our own defence interests. I tell you what I think people want to hear this morning is the government doing everything we can in defence of national security? Yes. We also trying to maintain constructive bilateral relations with China? Yes. We'll engage where we can, but we'll always, we’ll disagree where we must. I don't think the speculation about all the other stuff's really going to take us too far, is it?

O’KEEFE: Do you think it's hysterical, Bill?

SHORTEN: Oh, listen, I certainly don't think it's helpful to speculate about, you know, the dramatic headlines in the paper. I don't see where that gets us, frankly.

O’KEEFE: Well said.

ABO: Well said. Oh, wow. Agreement. I like it. Let's have more of it. All right, Bill, Chris, thanks so much for your time today.

Minister Shorten Interview on The Today Show with Sarah Abo | Department of Social Services Ministers

ministers.dss.gov.au

Watch it for real, starts at 7:14 (ignore the ASPI shill at the start

 

[kranky al]

Why

India and china have had border skirmishes since he made it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_China–India_skirmishes

 

[QuietB]

India and china have had border skirmishes since he made it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_China–India_skirmishes

Border skirmishes are not an invasion.