Prediction The next six - round 7 through 12

[chaosball32]

You talk tough but it’s not how the AFL works. No team has sacked a coach mid year and made finals. Once you sack them, the year is shot and probably the following year getting a new game plan bedded down. Look at Cox & Sydney.

We can turn into Carlton 2.0 and sack coaches every two to three season by not accepting failure but it gets you no where.

Too early to tell with Cox/Sydney. FWIW I never really rated their list that highly and thought they overachieved last year, I think they would’ve slid down the ladder even if Longmire was coaching this year.

Kingsley made a prelim in his first year, McRae made a prelim in his first year and a premiership in his second. A new coach doesn’t necessarily mean a dip, sometimes it revitalises an underperforming team.

One thing is for sure though, you don’t hold onto a mediocre coach forever just because the alternative might be worse. Ironically, that is exactly the risk-averse mentality that has made us such a mediocre club to begin with.

If Carlton sack coaches too often, then we hold onto coaches too long. 3 coaches in the past 19 seasons and only 6 finals appearances to show for it. I’m not sure what other clubs would’ve put up with such dismal returns for so long.

 

[Purple Suit]

The reason Carlton had to sack those coaches was because they appointed the wrong ones (with the exception of Ratten who was decent). We've done the same thing here, we didn't go through a thorough process, picked the club man and are now paying the price.

If it's clear and obvious the game plan with the current coach is shot, then why waste time with him? We aren't making finals with him as the coach - particularly if we go 2-4 in the next 6, so logically by that stage, giving the new coach more games to sort their gameplan out is the right move.

It's not just the coach, it's the whole club who achieve success. Carlton haven't had the right set-up in a lot of spots to be successful. They could have picked Fly or Beveridge etc and I still think they are sacking them.

Jlo has had a number of things go against him but has always built the team for the future. We've backed him in so he gets the year. No point crying over spilt milk about what we should have done last year or 5 years ago. The new coach will be Jamie Graham as an interim one if we sack him. The only positive in going first is you can try and get your pick of coaches. Our list will attract the best ones anyway so I don't think we need to go early and and I'd rather back in the evolving game plan and list to turn it around.

Too early to tell with Cox/Sydney. FWIW I never really rated their list that highly and thought they overachieved last year, I think they would’ve slid down the ladder even if Longmire was coaching this year.

Kingsley made a prelim in his first year, McRae made a prelim in his first year and a premiership in his second. A new coach doesn’t necessarily mean a dip, sometimes it revitalises an underperforming team.

One thing is for sure though, you don’t hold onto a mediocre coach forever just because the alternative might be worse. Ironically, that is exactly the risk-averse mentality that has made us such a mediocre club to begin with.

If Carlton sack coaches too often, then we hold onto coaches too long. 3 coaches in the past 19 seasons and only 6 finals appearances to show for it. I’m not sure what other clubs would’ve put up with such dismal returns for so long.

For those two and Bevo, there is also a Dimma, Fages, Chris Scott, Clarko and even Goodwin who survived long stints not getting the chocolates or performing when it mattered. Kenny & Longmire doing the same but not going on with it to win a flag.

It's 6 / 18 completed seasons of finals. Considering Geelong and Sydney basically live in the top 8, that's actually a bang on average record. We're about to hit a contending phase too even if it takes us longer to reach it than we would like (age of team / list is a factor) so we should get above that soon enough.

I 100% agree with not holding onto the coach forever and he's gone if we don't make finals. I just think it would be beyond stupid to sack a coach in round 6 at 3-3 or round 12 at 5-7. Look at the Hawks and Dogs last year, the game has changed and getting a run on and becoming the team we want to be isn't impossible.

 

[ubiquitous226]

You talk tough but it’s not how the AFL works. No team has sacked a coach mid year and made finals. Once you sack them, the year is shot and probably the following year getting a new game plan bedded down. Look at Cox & Sydney.

We can turn into Carlton 2.0 and sack coaches every two to three season by not accepting failure but it gets you no where.

The same thing plays out each week at selection, some people want to cut half the players to set standards or not accept mediocrity.

It isn't that simple though, I hope they're trying to make decisions to give us the best chance to have success.

Sacking a coach mid-season is useful if they've lost the playing group and you want to try and assess where a list is at before making hard choices at the end of the season, or there's an opportunity to lock in a replacement by going early.
Otherwise all it does is write off a year which I don't see as being in our interest at all, whether I believe in Longmuir or not.

The decision should be made at the end of the year with demonstration of whether JLo can turn it around, and when we have a good idea of what the best alternatives may be.

 

[DocT]

The same thing plays out each week at selection, some people want to cut half the players to set standards or not accept mediocrity.

It isn't that simple though, I hope they're trying to make decisions to give us the best chance to have success.

Sacking a coach mid-season is useful if they've lost the playing group and you want to try and assess where a list is at before making hard choices at the end of the season, or there's an opportunity to lock in a replacement by going early.
Otherwise all it does is write off a year which I don't see as being in our interest at all, whether I believe in Longmuir or not.

The decision should be made at the end of the year with demonstration of whether JLo can turn it around, and when we have a good idea of what the best alternatives may be.

Once you decide he must go you risk missing other opportunities if you have him hanging around. Firm decision is usually preferable to letting lost causes drift on.

 

[Dockeroo]

You talk tough but it’s not how the AFL works. No team has sacked a coach mid year and made finals. Once you sack them, the year is shot and probably the following year getting a new game plan bedded down. Look at Cox & Sydney.

We can turn into Carlton 2.0 and sack coaches every two to three season by not accepting failure but it gets you no where.

This is why he should have been sacked the day after the port Adelaide game last year

 

[Purple Suit]

This is why he should have been sacked the day after the port Adelaide game last year

Interesting, who do you think would be coaching us then?

Mini
Carr
Cox
???

Also, if Jlo turns it around will you eat humble pie or scream for his head once we exit the finals, even if we win a final in the process?

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I suppose there’s something to be said for being backs to the wall in the 2nd half of the season. It’s when we do best & if we have to win desperately to qualify the team will hopefully gell a bit.

Ah yes, like when we had our backs to the wall and needed to win towards the end of last season to qualify.

 

[poshman]

Maybe just me, but, the talk of sacking Lonmuir is ludicrous.I am not happy how things are going, but the problem is, who do we get as a replacement at short notice?
And please do not say Buckley or Longmire.We have as much chance of getting either as me flyiing to the moon an a spoon.
It would have to be a local, but is there a local that would be up to it?
No assistant coach from any other club is going to walk out to take over the Fremantle job.
Sad as it may seem to so many here, he is in for the season.

I don't fully buy this - we got Ross. We just need the right conditions and then to create incentives to make it happen.

Buckley would be a more difficult get, but I am not sure he would be our first choice.

Longmuir > Simpson > Buckley for mine.

Does Simpson want to coach? He is making a name for himself in media. Buckley would be the biggest surprise.

I have seen people move states and countries after saying they would never move when the right incentives are in place. It takes a dynamic board, i am not sure we have that.

 

[E Shed]

Ah yes, like when we had our backs to the wall and needed to win towards the end of last season to qualify.

I did think of that. I rationalized it with losing our key pillars at exactly the wrong time as other teams were flexing their muscles towards the business end. We really didn’t have the cattle or the experience.
But I agree, a big part was mental.
So far we’re showing we’ve learned nothing and JL is getting increasingly desperate.
Will this translate to the team? Only time will tell. My feeling after last week is we’re gone and it’s time for change but so would’ve Brisbane fans been feeling this time last year.
Really there is no way any of us can know what the right thing is.
Hardwick before they rejiggered & won 3(4?).
McRae?
Simpson?
Which are we? Or something else?
Will the Saints give Ross his redemption this time? Would he be coaching the style he is if we hadn’t sacked him.
So many more questions than answers.

 

[Purple Suit]

I don't fully buy this - we got Ross. We just need the right conditions and then to create incentives to make it happen.

Buckley would be a more difficult get, but I am not sure he would be our first choice.

Longmuir > Simpson > Buckley for mine.

Does Simpson want to coach? He is making a name for himself in media. Buckley would be the biggest surprise.

I have seen people move states and countries after saying they would never move when the right incentives are in place. It takes a dynamic board, i am not sure we have that.

I'll vomit if we get Simpson. He's a large reason WC is now the biggest laughing stock in the league. Basically gave up and his game plan in the end wasn't anything like Modern footy.

He hates us too, if he took the job it would just be a mole and we wouldn't win anything.

 

[Dockeroo]

Interesting, who do you think would be coaching us then?

Mini
Carr
Cox
???

Also, if Jlo turns it around will you eat humble pie or scream for his head once we exit the finals, even if we win a final in the process?

Absolutely I will. We would need to win a final for mine though, and more importantly look ultra competitive in the second week of finals even if we lost.

I think it’s highly unlikely from where we sit right now.

 

[Purpletown]

JLo has had 6 years to get things sorted and it's worth acknowledging there has been a developing of the list for the future to some degree. However we seem to be caught in a perpetual cycle of just being mediocre most of the time with the occasional step forward, followed by standing on a banana skin (last week)

I hope JLo is getting a bit anxious about his coaching tenure beyond 2025. Shouting at the players at training is hardly likely to inspire them to suddenly get better. Try dropping one of them occasionally to give them the message they are expected to perform better than they do during some games.

Drop Cox for a week to see if that helps motivate him to play closer to his potential than he is at the moment.

 

[ubiquitous226]

Once you decide he must go you risk missing other opportunities if you have him hanging around. Firm decision is usually preferable to letting lost causes drift on.

I agree with that, if they were clear JLo wasn't the future.
I imagine things are more complicated than what we can see though, the clearest outcome is wins but inside the club there'd be plenty more to measure in the meantime.

No one is arguing that JLo isn't fast reaching the point that wins is the most important KPI, if he misses finals this year he should be out.

 

[dominguez]

Interesting, who do you think would be coaching us then?

Mini
Carr
Cox
???

Also, if Jlo turns it around will you eat humble pie or scream for his head once we exit the finals, even if we win a final in the process?

The next coach is irrelevant if we don't play finals.

Just go through the process and hire the best applicant.

I think we'll steady the ship and beat the Crows but if the season goes pear shaped JLo has had long enough and needs to go.

 

[dominguez]

I agree with that, if they were clear JLo wasn't the future.
I imagine things are more complicated than what we can see though, the clearest outcome is wins but inside the club there'd be plenty more to measure in the meantime.

No one is arguing that JLo isn't fast reaching the point that wins is the most important KPI, if he misses finals this year he should be out.

Everyone at the club wants it to work with JLo. Seems like a really nice guy and it's romantic to have a former player, pick 2 in the draft, career cut short through injury, lead us to our first flag.

But at this stage it looks unlikely.

 

[Purple Suit]

The next coach is irrelevant if we don't play finals.

Just go through the process and hire the best applicant.

I think we'll steady the ship and beat the Crows but if the season goes pear shaped JLo has had long enough and needs to go.

I was talking about if we sacked Longmuir at the end of 2024. We could only appoint out of the pool of available candidates so it would be interesting if in the sliding Doors moment who would actually be coaching us. It's easy to demand change but harder to offer solutions that will actually work.

 

[chaosball32]

For those two and Bevo, there is also a Dimma, Fages, Chris Scott, Clarko and even Goodwin who survived long stints not getting the chocolates or performing when it mattered. Kenny & Longmire doing the same but not going on with it to win a flag.

It's 6 / 18 completed seasons of finals. Considering Geelong and Sydney basically live in the top 8, that's actually a bang on average record. We're about to hit a contending phase too even if it takes us longer to reach it than we would like (age of team / list is a factor) so we should get above that soon enough.

I 100% agree with not holding onto the coach forever and he's gone if we don't make finals. I just think it would be beyond stupid to sack a coach in round 6 at 3-3 or round 12 at 5-7. Look at the Hawks and Dogs last year, the game has changed and getting a run on and becoming the team we want to be isn't impossible.

Not including Gold Coast, only one team has made finals less then us in that time period (Melbourne). Definitely not average, way below average.

Pretty much all those coaches you named bar Goodwin were making finals regularly though. We’ve made finals once in 5 years under JL. Which I could take if I was seeing a style of football that whilst a work in progress could at least be a premiership winning brand in the future, but I just don’t see that. We see short glimpses of really promising footy but ultimately too many of the same problems arising week after week, year after year that he either can’t identify or refuses to identify or simply doesn’t know how to fix.

Sorry but I just don’t have the same blind faith that Longmuir will suddenly turn it all around that you do. I was willing to give him the start of this year but it’s looking like the 6th year will be more of the same as the first 5. Feel like we are just wasting time now.

 

[Purple Suit]

Not including Gold Coast, only one team has made finals less then us in that time period (Melbourne). Definitely not average, way below average.

Pretty much all those coaches you named bar Goodwin were making finals regularly though. We’ve made finals once in 5 years under JL. Which I could take if I was seeing a style of football that whilst a work in progress could at least be a premiership winning brand in the future, but I just don’t see that. We see short glimpses of really promising footy but ultimately too many of the same problems arising week after week, year after year that he either can’t identify or refuses to identify or simply doesn’t know how to fix.

Sorry but I just don’t have the same blind faith that Longmuir will suddenly turn it all around that you do. I was willing to give him the start of this year but it’s looking like the 6th year will be more of the same as the first 5. Feel like we are just wasting time now.

Really? Without checking I’m going to assume Essendon and Carlton are below us for final series. Bulldogs might be close too.

 

[chaosball32]

Really? Without checking I’m going to assume Essendon and Carlton are below us for final series. Bulldogs might be close too.

Carlton and Essendon with 6 each. Bulldogs with 10.

 

[dominguez]

I was talking about if we sacked Longmuir at the end of 2024. We could only appoint out of the pool of available candidates so it would be interesting if in the sliding Doors moment who would actually be coaching us. It's easy to demand change but harder to offer solutions that will actually work.

Unless you're involved in the selection process though it's impossible to know who the best candidate is.

On the body of evidence to this point JLo clearly isn't capable of taking us to a flag.

This time last year Murphy Reid was a high school student but he has more composure and charisma in the media than JLo.

 

[WilloTree]

I think there was a thread for the first six, but not the next six?
Some talk of us losing all six but whilst it's a real possibility it is still unlikely.
I'll have a go, our win chance first

Adelaide 50-50
Saints 70-30 (they're vulnerable)
Pies 40-60
Giants 20-80
Port 60-40
Suns 30-70

Roughly gives the chance of going 0-6 as only 12%, or 1 in 8 in my opinion.

Most likely result is 2 wins.

Sorry mate, losing all 6 is off the table.

Next hater thread? How about: JL is driving his own agenda!

Sounds good.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Squiggle 2026

live.squiggle.com.au

Worth a quick look.

We need to find an extra 2 wins more than expected this year to make finals.

I think Port at home becomes a must win, and hopefully we can sneak one one more (maybe GWS away or Collingwood at home)




Expect wins per Squiggle

St Kilda - .56
Collingwood - .41
GWS - .4
Port - .7
Gold Coast - .32
2.39 expected wins out of 5.

If we only get 2, we go back a bit.
If we win 3, but take a step towards making finals.

 

[Cam Payne]

Squiggle 2026

live.squiggle.com.au

Worth a quick look.

We need to find an extra 2 wins more than expected this year to make finals.

I think Port at home becomes a must win, and hopefully we can sneak one one more (maybe GWS away or Collingwood at home)




Expect wins per Squiggle

St Kilda - .56
Collingwood - .41
GWS - .4
Port - .7
Gold Coast - .32
2.39 expected wins out of 5.

If we only get 2, we go back a bit.
If we win 3, but take a step towards making finals.




View attachment 2297957

OOFTIT's winning one game. That's bulldust.

 

[DocT]

OOFTIT's winning one game. That's bulldust.

Win 4, not 4pts.

 

[gungho]

If we can somehow win 3 of the next 5 the fixture will then open up and we'll have a real crack at the top 4.
Saints - Win
Collingwood Win
Giants Loss
Port Adelaide Win
Gold Coast Loss