Play Nice The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

[Val Keating]

Map that shows how the Russian military is starting to circle Kyiv. The Russian lines are about to be strengthened by that convoy. Scary s**t. The city had a population of around 3M people before the invasion. Not sure how many are still stuck there.

 

[the big lebowski]

Map that shows how the Russian military is starting to circle Kyiv. The Russian lines are about to be strengthened by that convoy. Scary sh*t. The city had a population of around 3M people before the invasion. Not sure how many are still stuck there.

View attachment 1343397

I wonder what the chances are of an offensive from the West Ukrainians to attack that far left line outside Kyiv.

Attacking them from behind could be devastating for the Russian lines.

 

[Val Keating]

That convoy is not worth sh*t when it comes to urban fighting; in fact they are a liability.

‘’If they want the capital it will be street to street fighting for months. Do you think the Russians are up to the task?

The reason they are using rockets and artillery is because their infantry are not willing or capable of going into close quarter combat.

How long do you think it would take to subjugate a city almost the size of Melbourne? They do not have enough troops.

Disagree but you’re the military guy. There’s military equipment in that convoy that will be able to shell the * out of Kyiv. Russia has already shown that they will bomb civilians. They could level the city and then send in ground troops to clean up the remaining Ukrainian army.

I know everyone, including myself hopes that Ukraine can hold them off but we’re talking about the Russian army here. At some point the weight of numbers is too much.

Though I do think that it’s been a political disaster for Putin and it will hurt him in the long run. Their money is becoming worthless. Their oligarchs have lost huge amounts of money. Russia won’t be able to pay foreign debt. Putin is going to make Russian people to pay a huge amount to the government, and they’ve capped the amount of money people can withdraw meaning that the money they are forced to leave in the bank devaluates every day.

Putin might take Ukraine but it’s going to cost Russia more then they would have anticipated.

 

[the big lebowski]

I know everyone, including myself hopes that Ukraine can hold them off but we’re talking about the Russian army here. At some point the weight of numbers is too much.

People keep talking about weights of numbers.

Russia is said to have 150,000 troops in Ukraine. Ukraine has about that in their army. Plus 900,000 reservists. THey day the defender has a 5 to 1 advantage over the invader.

All that must greatly reduce the advantage that Russia has with technology. Though how Ukraine can still have a large number of their aircraft operable is mind boggling.

 

[Val Keating]

I wonder what the chances are of an offensive from the West Ukrainians to attack that far left line outside Kyiv.

Attacking them from behind could be devastating for the Russian lines.

If they have the available forces. A lot of the Ukrainian army is stuck fighting in other areas that they can’t abandon. It’s why Zelenskyy is begging for help. The Russian military is massive.

“Russia's army has 280,000 personnel and its armed forces have 900,000 overall, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, as compared with a total of about 210,000 in Ukraine's armed forces (with more in reserves and now being recruited).”

Ukraine just doesn’t have the numbers. They definitely seem very well trained though. So far the Russian casualties are much higher then Ukraine but I think that’s because the way the Russian military has been fighting. Almost like they’re happy to take more casualties. I watched a video the other day where a squad of about 50 Russian troops just walked straight down a road, without cover into a Ukrainian road block and the Russians were just getting slaughtered. It was brave as * but really shocking tactically.

 

[The Warlord]

It’s at the point now where the PR doesn’t matter, so if they want to hit Iran and paint them as the bad guys they can. They can just lie like Putin and start bombing them and nothing will happen.

Mate, if Israel could get away with attacking Iran openly they would have years ago.

If they did Hezbollah would turn Isreal into a warzone.

 

[The Warlord]

Map that shows how the Russian military is starting to circle Kyiv. The Russian lines are about to be strengthened by that convoy. Scary sh*t. The city had a population of around 3M people before the invasion. Not sure how many are still stuck there.

View attachment 1343397

Once they've got it surrounded and the perimeter cordon set up, Zelensky has to choose.

 

[B4Bear]

Disagree but you’re the military guy. There’s military equipment in that convoy that will be able to shell the fu** out of Kyiv. Russia has already shown that they will bomb civilians. They could level the city and then send in ground troops to clean up the remaining Ukrainian army.

I know everyone, including myself hopes that Ukraine can hold them off but we’re talking about the Russian army here. At some point the weight of numbers is too much.

Though I do think that it’s been a political disaster for Putin and it will hurt him in the long run. Their money is becoming worthless. Their oligarchs have lost huge amounts of money. Russia won’t be able to pay foreign debt. Putin is going to make Russian people to pay a huge amount to the government, and they’ve capped the amount of money people can withdraw meaning that the money they are forced to leave in the bank devaluates every day.

Putin might take Ukraine but it’s going to cost Russia more then they would have anticipated.

To take the capital they will have to destroy it; Grozny and Aleppo show that they will do this. But holding it is another matter.

The Rand Corporation have done extensive studies on this. For every 20 people in the country you need one soldier on the ground; in this instance 800k troops.

They simply do not have the numbers to achieve their aims. Add in an active insurgency, foreign ‘private citizens’, a rebellious civilian population in Ukraine, increasing dissatisfaction at home, no imports, no exports, embargo’s (especially in semi-conductors and computer chips, all from Taiwan), no money, no real heavy industries to produce war materiel, China backing away from this ‘good idea’, corrupt generals, poorly lead conscripts and shockingly badly maintained equipment.

And then there is the highly exposed lines of communication that has been their Achilles heel to date.

Not to mention that the gifted anti-armour and anti-air rockets are being supplied in huge (absolutely gigantic) numbers are wreaking havoc on everything that flies and is on the ground.

The only thing that seems to be working to date is long range fires, artillery and rockets. Indiscriminately used and killing civilians more than military to try and terrorise the population into surrender. But without infantry to hold the ground and dominate their areas of responsibility, it is just killing for the sake of killing.

The death toll is going to be horrifyin, but Russia can not win this if it continues. Their literal nation may collapse imho.

 

[Val Keating]

To take the capital they will have to destroy it; Grozny and Aleppo show that they will do this. But holding it is another matter.

The Rand Corporation have done extensive studies on this. For every 20 people in the country you need one soldier on the ground; in this instance 800k troops.

They simply do not have the numbers to achieve their aims. Add in an active insurgency, foreign ‘private citizens’, a rebellious civilian population in Ukraine, increasing dissatisfaction at home, no imports, no exports, embargo’s (especially in semi-conductors and computer chips, all from Taiwan), no money, no real heavy industries to produce war materiel, China backing away from this ‘good idea’, corrupt generals, poorly lead conscripts and shockingly badly maintained equipment.

And then there is the highly exposed lines of communication that has been their Achilles heel to date.

Not to mention that the gifted anti-armour and anti-air rockets are being supplied in huge (absolutely gigantic) numbers are wreaking havoc on everything that flies and is on the ground.

The only thing that seems to be working to date is long range fires, artillery and rockets. Indiscriminately used and killing civilians more than military to try and terrorise the population into surrender. But without infantry to hold the ground and dominate their areas of responsibility, it is just killing for the sake of killing.

The death toll is going to be horrifyin, but Russia can not win this if it continues. Their literal nation may collapse imho.

Yeah I hear you. I stated a while ago that in the end Russia can’t win because the Ukrainians will never stop fighting them.

That doesn’t change the fact that they’re about to ramp up their bombing and will destroy the cities and leave them as a pile of rubble.

It’s criminal.

 

[Val Keating]

Once they've got it surrounded and the perimeter cordon set up, Zelensky has to choose.

He’s already chosen imo. So have the Ukrainian people. Also worth noting that Putin is refusing to meet with Zelenskyy to work something out. Putin isn’t giving him a chance to do anything except defend.

 

[Val Keating]

Mate, if Israel could get away with attacking Iran openly they would have years ago.

If they did Hezbollah would turn Isreal into a warzone.

Putin has just shown that you can attack and lie about why you’re doing it and people will defend you. The world is different now.

Hezbollah would conduct random terror bombings. I think we’re likely to see Russia hit with random terrorist bombings as well from Ukrainian militia after this as well.

 

[ferball]

Putin has just shown that you can attack and lie about why you’re doing it and people will defend you. The world is different now.

Hezbollah would conduct random terror bombings. I think we’re likely to see Russia hit with random terrorist bombings as well from Ukrainian militia after this as well.

They are being trained by the people who trained what became El Qaeda so you could probably count on that.

 

[The Warlord]

This is actually pretty good.

How Ukraine has become the crucible of the new world order

From Russia’s threat of nuclear weapons to the patriotic courage of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the geopolitical alphabet is changing

www.theguardian.com

 

[Val Keating]

They are being trained by the people who trained what became El Qaeda so you could probably count on that.

Jesus Christ every ******* time. Did those people train the IRA too? You can’t blame America for everything.

When Russia levels Kyiv are you going to come up with some bizarre way of pinning it on the US?….”yeah well if the US didn’t work with Ukraine then this wouldn’t be happening”…..meanwhile mass graves are being dug.

Australian army works closely with the US so I spose it’s only fair if Russia starts bombing us right?

 

[The Warlord]

Putin has just shown that you can attack and lie about why you’re doing it and people will defend you. The world is different now.

Hezbollah would conduct random terror bombings. I think we’re likely to see Russia hit with random terrorist bombings as well from Ukrainian militia after this as well.

Nah, Hezbollah would rain thousands of rockets a day on Israeli cities and invade from the north.

 

[Val Keating]

Nah, Hezbollah would rain thousands of rockets a day on Israeli cities and invade from the north.

And risk Israel nuking Lebanon?

 

[Val Keating]

What’s with all these Syrians going to fight for Russia? 16,000 of them. After what Russia did to Syria you’d think they’d hate them. Do they have reason to hate Ukraine?

 

[Val Keating]

 

[Val Keating]

Oh no. It’s not far off. ******* madness. I wish someone would take out Putin before it happens.

 

[joegreen]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

I've read many of the articles and views posted here. This article resonated with me. The credentials of the interviewee appear good, but curious as what and who do you believe?

For many we now live in a world where anything is possible, but nothing is true. The gaslighting is real!

One thing is certain the world all over needs better diplomacy, ultruism and kindness. I like to look at what we have in common, and build on that. Somehow, we need to find a way.

 

[The Warlord]

And risk Israel nuking Lebanon?

You seen Lebanon lately?

And if Israel nuked an Arab country in a first strike scenario, it would be the end of Israel via multiple fronts.

 

[Val Keating]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

I've read many of the articles and views posted here. This article resonated with me. The credentials of the interviewee appear good, but curious as what and who do you believe?

For many we now live in a world where anything is possible, but nothing is true. The gaslighting is real!

One thing is certain the world all over needs better diplomacy, ultruism and kindness. I like to look at what we have in common, and build on that. Somehow, we need to find a way.

That was a good read.

This part was spot on,

Russia has a lot of weapons that they haven’t used yet, but there are a couple of factors here. First of all, Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield. They’re not winning this war. Russia is advancing very well in the south, which is an extremely valuable place because of the Black Sea littoral and the ports. They are advancing in the east. If the southern and eastern advances meet up, they will encircle and cut off the main forces of the Ukrainian Army. What’s failed so far is the Russian attempt to take Kyiv in a lightning advance. Otherwise, their war is unfolding well. It’s only a couple of weeks in; wars last much longer.



But here are some of the considerations: after three or four weeks of war, you need a strategic pause. You have to refit your armor, resupply your ammo and fuel depots, fix your planes. You have to bring in reserves. There’s always a planned pause after about three to four weeks.

If Kyiv can hold out through that pause, then potentially it could hold out for longer than that, because it can be resupplied while the Russians are being resupplied during their pause. Moreover, the largest and most important consideration is that Russia cannot successfully occupy Ukraine. They do not have the scale of forces.

 

[ferball]

Jesus Christ every ******* time. Did those people train the IRA too? You can’t blame America for everything.

When Russia levels Kyiv are you going to come up with some bizarre way of pinning it on the US?….”yeah well if the US didn’t work with Ukraine then this wouldn’t be happening”…..meanwhile mass graves are being dug.

Australian army works closely with the US so I spose it’s only fair if Russia starts bombing us right?

They are the same people. The CIA and other Us training groups trained the Mujahaddeen in Afghanistan and it came back to bite them eventually. The same US Intel based groups were training units in Ukraine for most of the last 7 years in asymmetric warfare and setting up of stay behind networks both of which are associated with terrorist activity. This is why SLF keeps banging on about nazis blowing up gay bars in the future. This is the sort of s**t that will happen as a result.

CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades

The CIA is overseeing a secret training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel.

news.yahoo.com

Before the latest Russian invasion alot of the people receiving this training were in those dodgy right wing para military and official military groups. I've posted links about this upthread where interviews US intelligence officials who talk about doing it, including things they've learned from doing it in Afghanistan.

If the US hadn't been pushing the s**t they talk about in this paper for well over a decade none of this would have happened. The US is ****ed. It goes out of its way to stir up s**t all over the world.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf

Here's the tl:dr summary:

Nonviolent Ways the United States Could Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities

Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad?

www.rand.org

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.

Geopolitical Cost-Imposing Options	Likelihood of Success in Extending Russia	Benefits	Costs and Risks
Provide lethal aid to Ukraine	Moderate	High	High
Increase support to the Syrian rebels	Low	Moderate	High
Promote liberalization in Belarus	Low	High	High
Expand ties in the South Caucasus	Low	Low	Moderate
Reduce Russian influence in Central Asia	Low	Low	Moderate
Flipping Transnistria	Low	Low	Moderate

 

[Val Keating]

You seen Lebanon lately?

And if Israel nuked an Arab country in a first strike scenario, it would be the end of Israel via multiple fronts.

It always comes back to mutually assured destruction doesn’t it. Just had a look, apparently there’s 11 countries with nukes.

North Korea
China
USA
France
Pakistan
Russia
India
UK
Israel
South Africa
Russia

Is Israel the only country in the Middle East with nukes?

 

[Val Keating]

They are the same people. The CIA and other Us training groups trained the Mujahaddeen in Afghanistan and it came back to bite them eventually. The same US Intel based groups were training units in Ukraine for most of the last 7 years in asymmetric warfare and setting up of stay behind networks both of which are associated with terrorist activity. This is why SLF keeps banging on about nazis blowing up gay bars in the future. This is the sort of sh*t that will happen as a result.

CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades

The CIA is overseeing a secret training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel.

news.yahoo.com

Before the latest Russian invasion alot of the people receiving this training were in those dodgy right wing para military and official military groups. I've posted links about this upthread where interviews US intelligence officials who talk about doing it, including things they've learned from doing it in Afghanistan.

If the US hadn't been pushing the sh*t they talk about in this paper for well over a decade none of this would have happened. The US is f’ed. It goes out of its way to stir up sh*t all over the world.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf

Here's the tl:dr summary:

Nonviolent Ways the United States Could Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities

Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad?

www.rand.org

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.

Geopolitical Cost-Imposing Options	Likelihood of Success in Extending Russia	Benefits	Costs and Risks
Provide lethal aid to Ukraine	Moderate	High	High
Increase support to the Syrian rebels	Low	Moderate	High
Promote liberalization in Belarus	Low	High	High
Expand ties in the South Caucasus	Low	Low	Moderate
Reduce Russian influence in Central Asia	Low	Low	Moderate
Flipping Transnistria	Low	Low	Moderate

Again, Ukraine is allowed to be allied and train with whoever they like. There’s no excuse for what Russia is doing.

They certainly aren’t worried about gay rights, have you seen how gays are treated in Russia?

How about black people?

Russia aren’t the good guys here.