The race for the top 4

[cinderella man]

Spangher inclusion and current form has lifted our chances of winning the flag. His record as a Hawk speaks for itself.

Essendon don't have a forwardline.

Dead right. The thing that beat them last week. Danaher is developing at the pace you would expect but is still to hit & miss in his contested efforts inside 50 for it all to rest on his shoulders. Need Bellchambers in the ruck to play Rider as a forward. Outside that they are Donald Ducked.

 

[footycats007]

Round 20 is incredibly important for deciding the top 4.
Swans vs. Port
Geelong vs. Freo

The way it looks, Freo is going to fall out of the top 4. Their run home is much harder than the cats. If you use the ladder predictor, it shows it clearly.
That makes the cats vs. freo game even that more important!
I think we have sniff to win that game too, considering if is being played in Geelong. If it were being played at Subi, I'd write it off as a loss for sure.

 

[Arsene Wenger]

You can't really expect a second year player to hold down a key defensive slot.

Depth is the reason Port will be found out this year.

Lobbe is struggling and if he cops an injury, Port's ruck stocks are expired.

In comparison to other Top 4 candidates, Port just don't have the squad of 28 - 30 players you need to challenge for a flag.

Like you were orginally, I am talking about this week v Essendon - not the season.

 

[James44]

Like you were orginally, I am talking about this week v Essendon - not the season.

& I addressed it stating it is unrealistic to expect a second year player to compete.

Daniher, Hurley, Bellchambers & the like will pose significant issues for Port's young defence.

The issue for Port right now is they are struggling to kick goals. Wingard, Gray & Monfries haven't kicked a goal between them for 2 weeks.

If you get a limited output of your FF, it places extra pressure on your midfield to kick goals.

 

[MadMac]

Round 20 is incredibly important for deciding the top 4.
Swans vs. Port
Geelong vs. Freo

The way it looks, Freo is going to fall out of the top 4. Their run home is much harder than the cats. If you use the ladder predictor, it shows it clearly.
That makes the cats vs. freo game even that more important!
I think we have sniff to win that game too, considering if is being played in Geelong. If it were being played at Subi, I'd write it off as a loss for sure.

Yeah, we're no good
We'll lose to Hawks and Port at home and get rolled by Cats

 

[Arsene Wenger]

& I addressed it stating it is unrealistic to expect a second year player to compete.

Daniher, Hurley, Bellchambers & the like will pose significant issues for Port's young defence.

The issue for Port right now is they are struggling to kick goals. Wingard, Gray & Monfries haven't kicked a goal between them for 2 weeks.

If you get a limited output of your FF, it places extra pressure on your midfield to kick goals.

I would expect a second year player to compete for sure. Thats the base level expectation. Essendon's forwards sure will pose a threat - but i still think we will win. I could be wrong though.

 

[JHF1870]

Round 20 is incredibly important for deciding the top 4.
Swans vs. Port
Geelong vs. Freo

The way it looks, Freo is going to fall out of the top 4. Their run home is much harder than the cats. If you use the ladder predictor, it shows it clearly.
That makes the cats vs. freo game even that more important!
I think we have sniff to win that game too, considering if is being played in Geelong. If it were being played at Subi, I'd write it off as a loss for sure.

Still hard to predict. Im hoping hawks win all their top 5 games. It looks tight up top. 17 wins and÷ top 2. 18 and % top spot. Not sure if anyone will go undefeated. R23 for us at subi vs freo could be massive. Imagine dockers and port 17 wins each,playing for home final. Play 2 weeks in a row

 

[James44]

Fremantle are a class above Geelong imv and will make light work of them regardless of whether the game is at SS or not.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

& I addressed it stating it is unrealistic to expect a second year player to compete.

Daniher, Hurley, Bellchambers & the like will pose significant issues for Port's young defence.

The issue for Port right now is they are struggling to kick goals. Wingard, Gray & Monfries haven't kicked a goal between them for 2 weeks.

If you get a limited output of your FF, it places extra pressure on your midfield to kick goals.

Essendon midfield struggled against a Geelong side who since round 5 have been smashed in the contested possessions and clearances against decent sides.

How do you think their midfield will fare against Port at home? it will be a mauling.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I'm pretty sure I can do a ladder predictor that has North finishing on top

(it'll need the sniper from the watch tower tho...)

 

[MC_9]

Big 'if' though.....bad time to get Adelaide and Sydney......

It is hard, but doable.

We should get Mitchell and Clarko back this week, and Gibson is due to return for Sydney.

We will only be missing a couple of players, in Rioli and Whitecross. So we should be ready to go for Sydney.

But I agree. If we win these next 3 games we are a very good chance for top 2.

 

[catters05]

Round 20 is incredibly important for deciding the top 4.
Swans vs. Port
Geelong vs. Freo

The way it looks, Freo is going to fall out of the top 4. Their run home is much harder than the cats. If you use the ladder predictor, it shows it clearly.
That makes the cats vs. freo game even that more important!
I think we have sniff to win that game too, considering if is being played in Geelong. If it were being played at Subi, I'd write it off as a loss for sure.

well the cats will need to improve a hell of a lot for them to overtake freo imo. The cats are just too up and down, almost every game is a danger game as not sure where the mindset of cats are.

 

[footycats007]

Yeah, we're no good
We'll lose to Hawks and Port at home and get rolled by Cats

I didn't say you were no good.
I said the cats have a "sniff" at Simmons Stadium, which actually implies that Freo is more likely to win, but I think the Cats have a good chance.

 

[footycats007]

well the cats will need to improve a hell of a lot for them to overtake freo imo. The cats are just too up and down, almost every game is a danger game as not sure where the mindset of cats are.

I don't think Cats are a better team than Freo at the moment. I think Freo deserve to be in the top 4 atm, and the Cats don't.
I'm purely going by the draw, and I think that Geelong has the ability to win more of their remaining games, than Freo does, just by looking at who they are playing.

 

[Halftimehero]

Essendon midfield struggled against a Geelong side who since round 5 have been smashed in the contested possessions and clearances against decent sides.

How do you think their midfield will fare against Port at home? it will be a mauling.

Our best 4 players on the night were midfielders, surprisingly enough it was our defenders who leaked easy goals that let us down against Geelong which hasn't been the case for most of the year.

 

[calaisking]

1. $ydney
2. Hawks
3. Freo
4. Geelong
5. Port
6. Collingwood
7. Gary Ablett Jr
8. North

More then likely hawks v syd GF

St Kilda get the #1 draft pick

 

[salim malik]

I don't think Cats are a better team than Freo at the moment. I think Freo deserve to be in the top 4 atm, and the Cats don't.
I'm purely going by the draw, and I think that Geelong has the ability to win more of their remaining games, than Freo does, just by looking at who they are playing.

What We play 5 bottom sides and Port and Hawks at Patterson's.Most are calling our run home as soft
Typical Geelong supporters underestimating Freo

 

[PAFC forever]

Did the ladder predictor and got...

Fremantle 18 - 4 - 136.4%
Sydney 18 - 4 - 134.7%
Port Adelaide 18 - 4 - 134.5%
Hawthorn 17 - 5 - 136.7%
Geelong 16 - 6 - 111.5%
Gold Coast 15 - 7 - 109.9%
Collingwood 14 - 8 - 113.8%
Adelaide 13 - 9 - 109.4%
---------------------------------------------
North Melbourne 13 wins 9 loses 109.2%

Percentage will play a huge part on where the teams will be placed for the final spots!

 

[ROYISHUNGRY]

Did the ladder predictor and got...

Fremantle 18 - 4 - 136.4%
Sydney 18 - 4 - 134.7%
Port Adelaide 18 - 4 - 134.5%
Hawthorn 17 - 5 - 136.7%
Geelong 16 - 6 - 111.5%
Gold Coast 15 - 7 - 109.9%
Collingwood 14 - 8 - 113.8%
Adelaide 13 - 9 - 109.4%
---------------------------------------------
North Melbourne 13 wins 9 loses 109.2%

Percentage will play a huge part on where the teams will be placed for the final spots!

You'd think Sydney would have a higher % then Freo.

 

[ROYISHUNGRY]

I got the suns finishing as high as 4!!!! If they can beat PA & COLL at home, they have a nice easy run. Which I reckon they'd be in with a shot!! Then PA (5) vs Adel (8)!!!!! Need ESS to win vs PA this weekend and GC vs COLL to win to get this run started. Interesting weekend of footy coming up!!

Could get crazy this year!!!

 

[samFFC]

Round 20 is incredibly important for deciding the top 4.
Swans vs. Port
Geelong vs. Freo

The way it looks, Freo is going to fall out of the top 4. Their run home is much harder than the cats. If you use the ladder predictor, it shows it clearly.
That makes the cats vs. freo game even that more important!
I think we have sniff to win that game too, considering if is being played in Geelong. If it were being played at Subi, I'd write it off as a loss for sure.

Come again?

Freo: Melbourne (A), GWS, St Kilda (A), Carlton, Geelong (A), Hawthorn (H), Brisbane (A), Port (H)
Geelong: WB, Melbourne, GWS (A), North, Freo (H), Carlton, Hawthorn, Brisbane

I have highlighted games against the same teams, and the Geel v Freo match. Important to note that Freo plays Melbourne away and Hawks at home, whilst Geelong plays both at the MCG.

Otherwise it's Freo against Saints and Port (H); versus Geelong against WB and North.

Both Freo and Geelong would likely go in as favourites in both matches, but Geelong's draw is hardly "much" easier.

Freo is basically a game ahead already with the superior percentage, so Geelong must win the game at Kardinya just to have their nose in front, let alone in the shootout amongst those other games (incl. Cats playing Hawthorn at the G, not home).

 

[samFFC]

You'd think Sydney would have a higher % then Freo.

Unlikely, Freo is <6% behind at the moment, and has a pretty soft next 6 weeks. If they do the job, should be 140%+ by the end of it. Swans have to travel to play West Coast, Hawthorn and Port within those 6 weeks. So unlikely to have too many big wins.

 

[Costanza_]

I reckon we need to win one of Port/Hawthorn away to finish top 2. Can probably still lose both and finish top 4, as long as we win everything else.

A home QF is always important, but I reckon this year it's bigger than most. Port at home would be a huge task, would be ok with playing them here. Same with Hawthorn and Freo.

 

[The Swans Blog]

1. $ydney
2. Hawks
3. Freo
4. Geelong

Don't you mean:
1. +9.8%
2. -9.8%
3. -9.8%
4. -9.8%

 

[PAFC forever]

You'd think Sydney would have a higher % then Freo.

Yeah it could go either way depends how much teams boost there percentage when they play the lower ranked teams. When I did the prediction I had Fremantle beating GWS and St Kilda by 10 goals.