News The Rain and Floods

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Tas

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Its all global warming tho.

Ice caps melt and the ocean gets hotter = more evaporation = more rain.

People are acting like the glaciers have melted and s**t is going down, it is a bit early to be building your Ark.

We have been hit by three consecutive La Ninas, the warmer El Nino is something we more commonly are hit by, the cooler La Nina causes more rainfall, long stretches of El Ninos makes droughts more common, the La Ninas cause saturation, like our dams here are all between 95-100%, they let out as much water as they can without contributing to flooding, our catchments are full, saturated, this leaves nowhere for the rain to go but to flood the lowest points where rivers form.

Normally we get mild La Ninas and El Ninos, but they vary in intensity. They think we will get more extreme intensities as the planet gets warmer. There is some interesting research on it... https://research.noaa.gov/article/A...ure-of-ENSO-under-influence-of-climate-change

We've always had floods and fires but the intensity of these things now is just mental. Micro burst rain bombs never used to happen. They do now and they are crazy. You can hear the rain from kms away!!! It blew me away the first time I heard rain that never even got to my house. We now have actual tornados made of fire not wind. And not just the "fire tornados" we've all seen running back and forth along the top of 50m walls of flame (they are just vortexes) actual structural tornados made of fire.

Planet is cactus. I'm glad I'll be dead before the worst of it happens. My kids are gonna see some crazy bad things tho.

And yet we haven't had a severe fire season since the last one, even though we still have plenty of forest land that was untouched by the last disaster. If we take more effort to clear the fuel, we wont get as extreme events.

There are a lot of factors involved and our actions play a big role, there wasn't any ice on this planet before humans, it isn't the natural state of the planet, it is too close to the sun to have permanent ice, we have glaciers because the planet went through a cataclysmic event (without humans being involved) and the ice is melting and will one day vanish regardless if we are here or not. We are speeding up that process.

I mean, the planet hasn't even warmed 1 degree since the 1900, if you think we are experiencing manifest changes due to the climate with such a small change it is a bit nutty.

graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png


I mean, it is going to get a lot hotter and the animal life survived fine without biblical floods on a daily basis. We would have to devise some kind of global air conditioner to be able to even slow down the warming, let alone stop it. I think it is important we stop making the problem worse, but the only thing we can control is which generation is going to have to deal with it.
 

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desie

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People are acting like the glaciers have melted and s**t is going down, it is a bit early to be building your Ark.

We have been hit by three consecutive La Ninas, the warmer El Nino is something we more commonly are hit by, the cooler La Nina causes more rainfall, long stretches of El Ninos makes droughts more common, the La Ninas cause saturation, like our dams here are all between 95-100%, they let out as much water as they can without contributing to flooding, our catchments are full, saturated, this leaves nowhere for the rain to go but to flood the lowest points where rivers form.

Normally we get mild La Ninas and El Ninos, but they vary in intensity. They think we will get more extreme intensities as the planet gets warmer. There is some interesting research on it... https://research.noaa.gov/article/A...ure-of-ENSO-under-influence-of-climate-change



And yet we haven't had a severe fire season since the last one, even though we still have plenty of forest land that was untouched by the last disaster. If we take more effort to clear the fuel, we wont get as extreme events.

There are a lot of factors involved and our actions play a big role, there wasn't any ice on this planet before humans, it isn't the natural state of the planet, it is too close to the sun to have permanent ice, we have glaciers because the planet went through a cataclysmic event (without humans being involved) and the ice is melting and will one day vanish regardless if we are here or not. We are speeding up that process.

I mean, the planet hasn't even warmed 1 degree since the 1900, if you think we are experiencing manifest changes due to the climate with such a small change it is a bit nutty.

graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png


I mean, it is going to get a lot hotter and the animal life survived fine without biblical floods on a daily basis. We would have to devise some kind of global air conditioner to be able to even slow down the warming, let alone stop it. I think it is important we stop making the problem worse, but the only thing we can control is which generation is going to have to deal with it.
Absolutely, this is why the idea that you can use water storage dams for flood mitigation is fanciful given the ground is already saturated from previous rainfall.

It would take months to safely release enough water to make any real difference and you end up making the flooding worse when it comes anyway.
 

Usayed Givashe

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Absolutely, this is why the idea that you can use water storage dams for flood mitigation is fanciful given the ground is already saturated from previous rainfall.

It would take months to safely release enough water to make any real difference and you end up making the flooding worse when it comes anyway.
We have 8 dams and even in summer they rarely drop more than a meter off full.

58mm in the can in Yarck.

Stay safe everyone!
 

JGreezy

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Absolutely, this is why the idea that you can use water storage dams for flood mitigation is fanciful given the ground is already saturated from previous rainfall.

It would take months to safely release enough water to make any real difference and you end up making the flooding worse when it comes anyway.
It's not fanciful. It's reality and they are used to mitigate floods on a regular basis.

Even if it is at 100% and the spillway is running then that water would have been going down the river anyway. Its not making it worse.

If it starts the flood at 95% then it has saved that 5% volume from flooding downstream.
 

desie

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It's not fanciful. It's reality and they are used to mitigate floods on a regular basis.

Even if it is at 100% and the spillway is running then that water would have been going down the river anyway. Its not making it worse.

If it starts the flood at 95% then it has saved that 5% volume from flooding downstream.
Depends on the dam I guess, creating just 5m of airspace in Sydney’s largest dam, Warragamba, would release 18% of its capacity, an enormous amount of water which would fill tributaries and saturate the ground pre any significant rain event.

Anyway, don’t want to derail things any further, all the best to everyone effected.
 

DuckYeah

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People are acting like the glaciers have melted and s**t is going down, it is a bit early to be building your Ark.

We have been hit by three consecutive La Ninas, the warmer El Nino is something we more commonly are hit by, the cooler La Nina causes more rainfall, long stretches of El Ninos makes droughts more common, the La Ninas cause saturation, like our dams here are all between 95-100%, they let out as much water as they can without contributing to flooding, our catchments are full, saturated, this leaves nowhere for the rain to go but to flood the lowest points where rivers form.

Normally we get mild La Ninas and El Ninos, but they vary in intensity. They think we will get more extreme intensities as the planet gets warmer. There is some interesting research on it... https://research.noaa.gov/article/A...ure-of-ENSO-under-influence-of-climate-change



And yet we haven't had a severe fire season since the last one, even though we still have plenty of forest land that was untouched by the last disaster. If we take more effort to clear the fuel, we wont get as extreme events.

There are a lot of factors involved and our actions play a big role, there wasn't any ice on this planet before humans, it isn't the natural state of the planet, it is too close to the sun to have permanent ice, we have glaciers because the planet went through a cataclysmic event (without humans being involved) and the ice is melting and will one day vanish regardless if we are here or not. We are speeding up that process.

I mean, the planet hasn't even warmed 1 degree since the 1900, if you think we are experiencing manifest changes due to the climate with such a small change it is a bit nutty.

graph-from-scott-wing-620px.png


I mean, it is going to get a lot hotter and the animal life survived fine without biblical floods on a daily basis. We would have to devise some kind of global air conditioner to be able to even slow down the warming, let alone stop it. I think it is important we stop making the problem worse, but the only thing we can control is which generation is going to have to deal with it.
I love how some people love to debate. Its not debatable. Its consensus. Look forward to your peer reviewed papers refuting the abundance of evidence suggesting the complete contrary.
 

Tas

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I love how some people love to debate. Its not debatable. Its consensus. Look forward to your peer reviewed papers refuting the abundance of evidence suggesting the complete contrary.

lol that graph is from climate.gov of NOAA and the other research was from a whole bunch of climate scientists including a CSIRO scientist, they aren't climate change deniers. All the s**t I posted was from climate change alarmists. They are still scientists though, not the end is nigh morons.
 

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DuckYeah

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lol that graph is from climate.gov of NOAA and the other research was from a whole bunch of climate scientists including a CSIRO scientist, they aren't climate change deniers. All the s**t I posted was from climate change alarmists. They are still scientists though, not the end is nigh morons.
Cherry picking bits here n there doesn’t cut the mustard.

There is no doubt la nina el nino etc. the differences being more extreme conditions. More rain etc and longer periods of extreme heat which has significant impacts and catastrophic outcomes.

We didn’t have bushfires, you’re right, just one in 100 year floods that are happening annually?
 

Tas

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Cherry picking bits here n there doesn’t cut the mustard.

There is no doubt la nina el nino etc. the differences being more extreme conditions. More rain etc and longer periods of extreme heat which has significant impacts and catastrophic outcomes.

We didn’t have bushfires, you’re right, just one in 100 year floods that are happening annually?

lol how is using the best research we have cherry picking?

It is very rare to get 3 la nina's in a row, it hasn't given time for the ground to lose that saturation, this is a massive front that is hitting almost the entire state and the ground is saturated from consecutive La Ninas so there is nowhere for the rain water to go other than the rivers, we have no slack in out catchment system, our dams were already at or near capacity, there is nowhere for the water to go than to flood.

Yes, floods are very uncommon in Victoria, we don't usually have consecutive La Ninas, we usually have many El Ninos between them. Australia is still expected to be arid when all the glaciers are gone, it is just expected to be a bit greener due to more rainfall... oh, and a huge inland sea due to ocean water rising in level.

The research says we don't expect more La Ninas or El Ninos, just for them to get more extreme as the temperature rises, we are still going to get a lot of droughts even when there are no glaciers, we will probably get worse ones. It isn't people who don't believe in climate change or want to downplay it doing the research, they are just applying the best understanding of the science that they have at their disposal.

If the research suggested we can expect more scenarios of consecutive La Ninas with higher temperatures, sure, that would become a problem linked directly to climate change.

The research suggests we will get hit with more extreme events, we can help to mitigate some of the more severe outcomes, ie we can create larger catchments/dam capacity, improve the flow capacity of waterways to help alleviate flooding. We can actively collect forest fuel and either mulch it if we don't want to burn it off, put it into the soil, this will make it harder for fires to burn with the same intensity. We obviously want to stop temperature rising, but we can alleviate some of the symptoms of it rising, because the largest polluters aren't doing diddly squat to reduce their greenhouse emissions.
 

Engimal v3

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Anyone up near Kerang? My old man is supposed to be heading that way in the morning
 

DuckYeah

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lol how is using the best research we have cherry picking?

It is very rare to get 3 la nina's in a row, it hasn't given time for the ground to lose that saturation, this is a massive front that is hitting almost the entire state and the ground is saturated from consecutive La Ninas so there is nowhere for the rain water to go other than the rivers, we have no slack in out catchment system, our dams were already at or near capacity, there is nowhere for the water to go than to flood.

Yes, floods are very uncommon in Victoria, we don't usually have consecutive La Ninas, we usually have many El Ninos between them. Australia is still expected to be arid when all the glaciers are gone, it is just expected to be a bit greener due to more rainfall... oh, and a huge inland sea due to ocean water rising in level.

The research says we don't expect more La Ninas or El Ninos, just for them to get more extreme as the temperature rises, we are still going to get a lot of droughts even when there are no glaciers, we will probably get worse ones. It isn't people who don't believe in climate change or want to downplay it doing the research, they are just applying the best understanding of the science that they have at their disposal.

If the research suggested we can expect more scenarios of consecutive La Ninas with higher temperatures, sure, that would become a problem linked directly to climate change.

The research suggests we will get hit with more extreme events, we can help to mitigate some of the more severe outcomes, ie we can create larger catchments/dam capacity, improve the flow capacity of waterways to help alleviate flooding. We can actively collect forest fuel and either mulch it if we don't want to burn it off, put it into the soil, this will make it harder for fires to burn with the same intensity. We obviously want to stop temperature rising, but we can alleviate some of the symptoms of it rising, because the largest polluters aren't doing diddly squat to reduce their greenhouse emissions.
Is that you Malcolm Roberts?
 

Usayed Givashe

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lol how is using the best research we have cherry picking?

It is very rare to get 3 la nina's in a row, it hasn't given time for the ground to lose that saturation, this is a massive front that is hitting almost the entire state and the ground is saturated from consecutive La Ninas so there is nowhere for the rain water to go other than the rivers, we have no slack in out catchment system, our dams were already at or near capacity, there is nowhere for the water to go than to flood.

Yes, floods are very uncommon in Victoria, we don't usually have consecutive La Ninas, we usually have many El Ninos between them. Australia is still expected to be arid when all the glaciers are gone, it is just expected to be a bit greener due to more rainfall... oh, and a huge inland sea due to ocean water rising in level.

The research says we don't expect more La Ninas or El Ninos, just for them to get more extreme as the temperature rises, we are still going to get a lot of droughts even when there are no glaciers, we will probably get worse ones. It isn't people who don't believe in climate change or want to downplay it doing the research, they are just applying the best understanding of the science that they have at their disposal.

If the research suggested we can expect more scenarios of consecutive La Ninas with higher temperatures, sure, that would become a problem linked directly to climate change.

The research suggests we will get hit with more extreme events, we can help to mitigate some of the more severe outcomes, ie we can create larger catchments/dam capacity, improve the flow capacity of waterways to help alleviate flooding. We can actively collect forest fuel and either mulch it if we don't want to burn it off, put it into the soil, this will make it harder for fires to burn with the same intensity. We obviously want to stop temperature rising, but we can alleviate some of the symptoms of it rising, because the largest polluters aren't doing diddly squat to reduce their greenhouse emissions.

Tas, can’t agree that the big polluters are doing nothing. You talking China and India here? Or Alcoa / mining?

Having been on both sides of this, as a serious polluter (coal/gas physical trading) and later as a Right-wing Greeny where I went and sold solutions to my old clients (renewable energy/BESS/micro grids) and developed solar farms, I can see how someone who theoretically knew what they were talking about, but wasn’t at the front line, could make that error.

Companies are being forced into Solar and Battery solutions at a remarkable rate because at current prices (31c p/kWh in 2022 and 2023), with very little relief and prices likely to remain above 12c all the way to 2026. Most big businesses will have paid off the Solar (not battery)investment prior to that.

I agree with your sentiment, in that I’m not sure it’s fixable, but * we kinda have to try for our kids - don’t we?

Reneweconomy is a good website to keep track of live energy generation mix if you are wondering how we are tracking. Most days, contrary to what you hear, we are about 40% which is a good start.

But forget Net Zero, we will be Net -500 at some point, possibly -800 —> whether that helps?

I watched a documentary on the North-West Passage, that is some scary s**t - soon we won’t even need the Panama Canal to transport goods from the Pacific to the Atlantic.
 

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Expecting Minor Flood or higher on Saturday/Sunday morning here with the flood waters travelling down stream from the flooding in Seymour

Biggest drama around here today is potholes on the roads

12 cars wrecked near Seymour smashing into huge potholes caused by the rain.
 

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Who are the current owners of the Anglers Tavern? Didn’t Corey McK own it once? Underwater atm
 

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