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The Real AFL MVP - 2025 Edition

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Fadge

Fadge

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Mar 4, 2007
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I have been assessing this for the last couple of seasons, and believe there should be an award for the best player across a FULL season - Home and Away AND Finals.

In 2023, there were two clear standouts - N. Daicos and M. Bontempelli. Daicos was leading all individual awards until missing the last 4 games through injury, before returning for the Preliminary Final and Grand Final, and being influential in a premiership. He still finished on the podium in all individual awards. Bontempelli was voted the Players MVP, came second in both the Brownlow and the Coaches Award, but didn't have a finals series to add to his 2025 CV. For mine, I had Daicos ahead of Bontempelli in 2023, with a gap to the next batch (Butters, Petracca, Greene, etc.).

In 2024, I feel we had more standout performances, and ranked players in this order:
1. Isaac Heeney - Amazing season, and put team success ahead of potential individual awards when he missed Sydney's last home and away game in preparation for the finals. Finishing 3rd in both the Coaches Award and Players MVP, whilst having to contend with Gulden and Warner for Brownlow votes yet still finishing equal 4th with 28 votes, he returned to play two outstanding finals games before succumbing to injury in the Grand Final.
2. Lachie Neale - Despite being a dual Brownlow Medallist, I rate this as Lachie's best individual season, courtesy of extremely strong home and away performances, but trumped by an amazing finals series in which he was awarded the Gary Ayres Medal. I reckon the umpires were a tad gun-shy with his Brownlow votes given the shock result the previous season.
3. Patrick Cripps - An amazing individual season, carrying his team to a second consecutive finals series. Whilst 45 Brownlow votes was a little excessive, he also finished second in both the Coaches Award and Players MVP. Though he was his team's best in an embarrassing Elimination Final, he was overtaken by Neale due to his lack of finals opportunity. Was also Vice-Captain of the All-Australian team.
4. Nick Daicos - Another brilliant season by the little master. Coaches Award Winner, 2nd in the Brownlow, and 4th in the AFLPA MVP. No Finals means he was also leapfrogged by Neale in this list.
5. Marcus Bontempelli - Yet another amazing season by Footscray's GOAT. AFLPA MVP Winner, 6th in the Coaches Award, but surprising ignored by the umpires in the Brownlow to finish well down that list. Was awarded with AA Captain, though had an unusually quiet single finals game.

The race for this year's title is a very interesting one indeed, with many of the frontrunners hoping for an extended run in the finals.

Some different names are in the mix this year, though there is one constant, and let's see how they finish their seasons.

The winner will likely come from (in my order after round 17):
Noah Anderson
Jordan Dawson
Nick Daicos
Bailey Smith

As formal leaders of their clubs, leadership contribution from Anderson and Dawson is absolutely considered.

I expect the winner will come from one of the above 4, with the following players potentially making up the top 5 with strong finals series - T. Green, C. Serong, E. Richards, H. McGluggage, M. Holmes and J. Cameron.

Players like Bont, Darcy and Callaghan have all missed too much footy to be considered at this stage, though may fly home into the top 5 with massive finishes to the season (including finals series).

Historical winners:
2000 -
2001 -
2002 -
2003 -
2004 -
2005 - Ben Cousins
2006 -
2007 - Gary Ablett Jr
2008 - Lance Franklin
2009 - Gary Ablett Jr
2010 - Dane Swan
2011 - Chris Judd
2012 -
2013 -
2014 - Nathan Fyfe
2015 - Sam Mitchell
2016 - Patrick Dangerfield
2017 - Dustin Martin
2018 - Steele Sidebottom
2019 - Patrick Dangerfield
2020 - Lachie Neale
2021 - Marcus Bontempelli
2022 - Lachie Neale
2023 - Nick Daicos
2024 - Isaac Heeney
 
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Fadge said:
I have been assessing this for the last couple of seasons, and believe there should be an award for the best player across a FULL season - Home and Away AND Finals.

In 2023, there were two clear standouts - N. Daicos and M. Bontempelli. Daicos was leading all individual awards until missing the last 4 games through injury, before returning for the Preliminary Final and Grand Final, and being influential in a premiership. He still finished on the podium in all individual awards. Bontempelli was voted the Players MVP, came second in both the Brownlow and the Coaches Award, but didn't have a finals series to add to his 2025 CV. For mine, I had Daicos ahead of Bontempelli in 2023, with a gap to the next batch (Butters, Petracca, Greene, etc.).

In 2024, I feel we had more standout performances, and ranked players in this order:
1. Isaac Heeney - Amazing season, and put team success ahead of potential individual awards when he missed Sydney's last home and away game in preparation for the finals. Finishing 3rd in both the Coaches Award and Players MVP, whilst having to contend with Gulden and Warner for Brownlow votes yet still finishing equal 4th with 28 votes, he returned to play two outstanding finals games before succumbing to injury in the Grand Final.
2. Lachie Neale - Despite being a dual Brownlow Medallist, I rate this as Lachie's best individual season, courtesy of extremely strong home and away performances, but trumped by an amazing finals series in which he was awarded the Gary Ayres Medal. I reckon the umpires were a tad gun-shy with his Brownlow votes given the shock result the previous season.
3. Patrick Cripps - An amazing individual season, carrying his team to a second consecutive finals series. Whilst 45 Brownlow votes was a little excessive, he also finished second in both the Coaches Award and Players MVP. Though he was his team's best in an embarrassing Elimination Final, he was overtaken by Neale due to his lack of finals opportunity. Was also Vice-Captain of the All-Australian team.
4. Nick Daicos - Another brilliant season by the little master. Coaches Award Winner, 2nd in the Brownlow, and 4th in the AFLPA MVP. No Finals means he was also leapfrogged by Neale in this list.
5. Marcus Bontempelli - Yet another amazing season by Footscray's GOAT. AFLPA MVP Winner, 6th in the Coaches Award, but surprising ignored by the umpires in the Brownlow to finish well down that list. Was awarded with AA Captain, though had an unusually quiet single finals game.

The race for this year's title is a very interesting one indeed, with many of the frontrunners hoping for an extended run in the finals.

Some different names are in the mix this year, though there is one constant, and let's see how they finish their seasons.

The winner will likely come from (in my order after round 17):
Noah Anderson
Jordan Dawson
Nick Daicos
Bailey Smith

As formal leaders of their clubs, leadership contribution from Anderson and Dawson is absolutely considered.

I expect the winner will come from one of the above 4, with the following players potentially making up the top 5 with strong finals series - T. Green, C. Serong, E. Richards, H. McGluggage, M. Holmes and J. Cameron.

Players like Bont, Darcy and Callaghan have all missed too much footy to be considered at this stage, though may fly home into the top 5 with massive finishes to the season (including finals series).
Click to expand...
I don't mind the idea, but starting it at 2023 is disappointing. Every year this century would be interesting. The idea that players are punished for not getting to play 3+ finals I'm still not particularly sold on. Unless their poor performance was a crucial factor in their team not progressing further in finals. Most of Bontempelli's seasons and a number of Ablett's would be marked down through little fault of their own. "Did your team make it to the grand final" becomes one of the leading indicators in itself.
 
Mr Meow said:
The idea that players are punished for not getting to play 3+ finals I'm still not particularly sold on. Unless their poor performance was a crucial factor in their team not progressing further in finals. Most of Bontempelli's seasons and a number of Ablett's would be marked down through little fault of their own. "Did your team make it to the grand final" becomes one of the leading indicators in itself.
Click to expand...
That's the thing though with it being a prize for the full season - you are (and should be) benefited for having great finals performances.

But you still need to be within striking distance of the leaders in order to overtake them.

And yes, if your finals performances are poor, they work against you.

Curnow in 2023, for example.
 
Fadge said:
That's the thing though with it being a prize for the full season - you are (and should be) benefited for having great finals performances.

But you still need to be within striking distance of the leaders in order to overtake them.

And yes, if your finals performances are poor, they work against you.

Curnow in 2023, for example.
Click to expand...
I agree, especially if you played in finals and weren’t great while your peers dominated. E.g Dangerfield 2017, a spectacular semi final sandwiched between a couple of underwhelming ones while Dusty hit 3/3. But again, they were neck and neck heading into it. What do you do if Dangerfield was miles ahead?

Then the trickier scenario is if they don't play finals at all, or get one of those token EF situations where their whole team is dominated. Ablett, Bontempelli, Cripps come to mind. Will many players win this Fadgelow if their team doesn't make it to the grand final?
 
eaglespremiers said:
You are seriously overrating Neale's 2024 season.
Click to expand...
Nah.

Neale had a fantastic 2024, despite being one of the most heavily targeted and tagged player in the game, and had an outstanding finals series.

I had him 6th leading into the finals series, after the other 4 I mentioned, then Hogan. But then he had the finals series he had, and leapfrogged the players who didn't have the finals CV.
 
Zak Butters is the true MVP of the AFL

At 70kg, he is objectively a twink.

But even a smiling twink outlasts bears and otters in the undertow - precisely because he yields, and in yielding, attacks.

He is the true powerbottom.
 

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Fadge said:
Just for you, over the coming weeks, I'll retrospectively go back and select the winners for each of the 21st Century seasons.
Click to expand...
Just on this....

I've always been one for audience involvement.

I've updated the list in the OP with the winners that I can easily recall off the top of my head without any research.

Give me your nominations, with the rationale, for the other seasons, and if you convince me, I'll update the list accordingly.
 
2018 is an interesting season, and possibly one of the most open.

At the time I thought Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy were the most valuable players in the competition for the home and away season.

Mitchell won the Brownlow.

Sidebottom runner up and the Gary Ayres Award winner. But had a below par Grand Final.

In saying that, I don't think anyone else in the mix had big finals series.

Steele it is.
 
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WalshistheGOAT said:
He just wanted a way to discredit Cripps. Nothing else to it really.

This year Bazlenka is the clear MVP for me. Ed Richards or Jordan Dawson 2nd to that imo.
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He'd go close, but his missed games will start to hurt him if they continue.

Will likely cost him the Brownlow already, but if managing can help us go deep in September, then I doubt he'll care.

It's a bit of a strawman too, but can you be the MVP if there's a credible debate that Holmes and Cameron are more valuable to your side?

Probably, but it might discredit the work he's done, as great as it's been.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
He'd go close, but his missed games will start to hurt him if they continue.
Click to expand...
This is a key point - actual output is a key metric.

For example, whilst Daicos was the clear best player in the comp in 2023 through to his injury, his missed games put that status in question, when Bontempelli caught him on output (as supported by the Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFLPA MVP votes), despite this only being a very marginal lead.

It was only after Daicos' finals performances that he retained the #1 status, given Bont didn't have any finals games to add to his output in 2023.
 
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Mr Meow said:
Will many players win this Fadgelow if their team doesn't make it to the grand final?
Click to expand...
So far, I have 3 winners from teams that didn't make the Grand Final.

Judd in 2011, Dangerfield in 2016 and Neale in 2020.

Expect we'll get more as the winners from other seasons, who aren't as obvious, are unveiled.
 

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Let's look at 2022, an interesting year with no real standout/s. My rankings as follows:

1. Lachie Neale - Runner Up in the Brownlow Medal, 3rd in the Coaches Award, and 4th in the Players MVP. Two massive finals games to propel his team into a Preliminary Final from 5th. Massive year.

2. Clayton Oliver - Equal winner of the Coaches Award and runner up in the Players MVP. Had to share votes with Petracca in the Brownlow, though still cam equal 4th with 25 votes. Was in the Coaches votes for his first final against Sydney. Not a lot between him and Neale, but just pipped IMO due to an inferior finals series.

The next in line, in no particular order - Jeremy Cameron, Andrew Brayshaw, Touk Miller.
 
Now for 2021, which was a high standard crop, with a bee's proverbial between the top 4:

1. Marcus Bontempelli - Was a runaway winner of the AFLPA MVP, runner up in the Brownlow with 33 votes, equal runner up in the Coaches Award, and strung together a decent finals series before his team was blown away by a rampant Melbourne team in the last 4 minutes of the Grand Final. Enormous year.

2. Clayton Oliver - Winner of the AFLCA Coaches Award, 3rd in the Brownlow Medal, though surprising outside the top 5 in the AFLPA MVP. Fantastic finals series including being named in Melbourne's best in the Grand Final, but was just shaded by Bont IMO.

3. Ollie Wines - Brownlow Medallist who came equal second in the AFLCA Coaches Award, but was surprising outside the top 5 in the AFLPA MVP. Outstanding Qualifying Final, and couldn't have done much more than his 38 and 1 when his team was annihilated in the Preliminary Final.

4. Christian Petracca - A second Melbourne player who had an outstanding year - 4th in the AFLPA MVP, equal 9th in the Brownlow and 8th in the Coaches MVP. Leapfrogged a few players courtesy of his finals series, in which he was awarded the Norm Smith Medal for an outstanding Grand Final, and was runner up in the Gary Ayres Medal.
 
pieman123 said:
Lets be honest it will be the Bont again, even though he shouldn't even make the AA squad.
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For Bont to win this year's Fadgelow, given the games he's already missed and the quiet games he's had whilst experiencing close checking, he'll have to near single-handedly carry his team to a top 4 finish and have a Gary Ayres Medal level finals series.
 
2019 - Another really difficult season to find a clear winner of the Fadgelow, with not a lot between the top 6 players:

1. Patrick Dangerfield - Runner up in both the Brownlow and the Coaches Award, but outside the top 5 in the AFLPA MVP (is this the season he wasn't nominated by Geelong?). A massive Qualifying Final against Collingwood in a losing team, followed by an average Semi-Final, and a strong if not spectacular Preliminary Final (outside the Coaches votes). Cats best and fairest over Tim Kelly sealed the Fadgelow for him.

2. Tim Kelly - A year out of the box for the second year Cat. 5th in the Brownlow, 2nd in the AFLPA MVP and 4th in the Coaches Award. Played a lone hand for Geelong in a losing Preliminary Final in addition to high quality Qualifying and Semi Finals - averaging an amazing 26 possessions and 2 goals across his 3 finals games.

3. Nathan Fyfe - Brownlow Medallist, 3rd in the Coaches Award and 5th in the AFLPA MVP. Captain of the All-Australian team. No Finals.

4. Patrick Cripps - Winner of the AFLPA MVP, equal 3rd in the Brownlow and equal 5th in the Coaches Award - a massive season considering his team only won 7 games and finished 3rd last.

5. Brodie Grundy - Equal 5th in the Coaches Award, 4th in the AFLPA MVP and equal 6th in the Brownlow was a massive season for the All-Australian ruckman. Continued his form through the finals series, averaging 23 possession and 60 hit-outs across his two games.

6. Dustin Martin - has to be in the mix courtesy of his well documented finals series - Gary Ayres Medallist and Norm Smith Medallist - averaging 19 possessions and 4 goals across his 3 finals games. Equal 6th in the Brownlow, equal 11th in the Coaches Award, outside the top 5 in the AFLPA MVP, no All-Australian jumper and 6th in his own club's best and fairest meant there was a fair bit of ground for him to make up in comparison to the better performed home and away players.
 

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