Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Jeremias]

I am scared for carlton fans. I feel they are a good chance to be behind Gold coast this year. Not only will they suffer another catastrophic season but lose out on pick 1 also. Adelaide are laughing.

Yawn. Just another who hasn’t bothered to look at the trade in its entirety.

There is a lot more to it than simply judging the trade on what pick we may have given up.

 

[Milux]

Yawn. Just another who hasn’t bothered to look at the trade in its entirety.

There is a lot more to it than simply judging the trade on what pick we may have given up.

You do gain a kid you wanted this year plus another potential top 10 pick on 2019. So probs not an all out loss yet. But it's a huge risk and potentially high price to pay. Kudos to sos for having some balls.

 

[HARKER]

Yawn. Just another who hasn’t bothered to look at the trade in its entirety.
There is a lot more to it than simply judging the trade on what pick we may have given up.

I had about 6 points that made the trade sensible utilising the 'bigger picture' method.
The trade worked for acquiring the sixth best player in the draft. The only question worth asking from here on in and it can't be asked for some time yet is; Was Stocker as good as the CFC thought he would be? We'll see in a few years time.

 

[Jeremias]

You do gain a kid you wanted this year plus another potential top 10 pick on 2019. So probs not an all out loss yet. But it's a huge risk and potentially high price to pay. Kudos to sos for having some balls.

Of course it's a risk. That's no reason to not do the trade or to be criticised for it.

I'm not sure we'll really care what we gave up if Stocker develops into the player we think he might.

Probably not an all out loss yet? I guess that's one way to put it, but there's no "probably" about it.

 

[ManOfClay]

Um, because those statistics are correct?

See, this reminds me of that time where you got hung up on a post someone else made - again, supporting Carlton - saying something along the lines of they would take 10 players from Carlton's list before they would take Gresham. You then proceeded to hound that particular poster, on the main board, for the better part of two weeks.

I've been pretty good recently, I haven't called you a troll once. But, again, that's why this thread is stupid; you're unwilling to see anything other than what you already think, your posts are designed to antagonise rather than to discuss, and the result of my disagreement with you is that you call me a cheerleader, and tell me I should stay on my team board.

Sometimes, the appellation that you are a troll is accurate.

I’m not a troll, I’m just saying things you don’t like. Casboult is nowhere near the best ruck/forward in the comp. he’s not even best 22 at the wooden spooners and no club wants a bar of him in a trade. No disingenuous use of stats changes that, and even other Carlton fans have disagreed with you.

All I did was ask that poster to name his 10, which he refused. Is it unreasonable to ask someone to back up what they say in a discussion?

It’s not trolling when I’m just stating an opinion. If you want to read how Carlton’s future is bright because kids then stay away from discussions that might involve people who care to delve deeper than “oh they are young so they’ll improve”

 

[Marcel Proust]

You do gain a kid you wanted this year plus another potential top 10 pick on 2019. So probs not an all out loss yet. But it's a huge risk and potentially high price to pay. Kudos to sos for having some balls.

The way I see it Carlton are not good enough; current wooden spooners with two wins, bookies choice for bottom 2 in '19 etc.

to be giving away top 2 draft picks. At this point in the carlton rebuild, they should not be giving away such valuable assets.

They think they are in phase two - apparently SOS own words as evidence by the stocker deal yet every team has good young players (like Brisbane for example), not sure if carltons are numerous enough or as what they reckon

 

[Gethelred]

I’m not a troll, I’m just saying things you don’t like.

If you're going to label me a cheerleader because of my support of my team - whether legitimate or poor - then I'm going to label you a troll for your attack on me (however mild it was) rather than the team I support or my support of them.

I rather think I can make that case, mind, should I go through your posting history. You're hardly any less biased than I am, albeit in a different direction, and only on Bigfooty would someone suggest that supporting the team you support is a bad thing.

 

[Marcel Proust]

If you're going to label me a cheerleader because of my support of my team - whether legitimate or poor - then I'm going to label you a troll for your attack on me (however mild it was) rather than the team I support or my support of them.

I rather think I can make that case, mind, should I go through your posting history. You're hardly any less biased than I am, albeit in a different direction, and only on Bigfooty would someone suggest that supporting the team you support is a bad thing.

you can support a club and not every decision they make

especially when as radical as offloading pick 1s / 2s when currently dead last

 

[doppleganger]

It is a thread about Brisbane and Carlton’s list build.

Both teams have been adding plenty of top draft picks in recent years, so don’t care to compare them.

IMO the big difference of late is that brisbane have actually traded in some quality senior players that are best 22 players that have already helped them improve - Hodge, C.Cameron and they continued again with Neale, Adams and McCarthy in the off-season.

Carlton on the other hand went for guys like Smedts, Mullet and Lobbe.

Unsurprisingly Brisbane has seen their % grow from 61, 74 to 89. They are building nicely.

Pretty clear I listed senior guys that are best 22 for Brisbane...not just all old blokes.

Why don’t you list all the other players that Carlton traded in that have experience?
We’ve brought in way more than the three you’ve named in the time that Brisbane have brought those in that you’ve listed.


Don’t worry, I know why you don’t...because then your opinion looks flimsy like your post.

Mullet, Shaw, O’Shea & Lobbe we’re not recruited for senior footy.

You even agree with me, Carlton have been adding senior players to their list with no expectations they would be best 22 players.

Three were recruited and delisted again after one year, horrible list management.

No I didn’t fail!
Go back to the original post I responded too and go from there...word for word.
There is bugger all difference between the rebuilds apart from Carlton bringing in more players - and dealing with a larger injury list!.

The big difference is Brisbane has recruited quality established senior players who go straight into their best 22.

Even you agree Carlton have been bringing in VFL level senior players.

the difference being that I think putting guys like Palmer, Mullet, Shaw, Smedts, O’Shea on the senior list for one or two years before delisting them again is rubbish, if Hine added a glut of spuds like that to Collingwood’s list I would be filthy.

You apparently think it is good list management, and I guess it helps boost SOS list turnover numbers...very crafty to bring in spuds and delist them the next year and say we made another 14 list changes so need more time!!

 

[Gethelred]

you can support a club and not every decision they make

especially when as radical as offloading pick 1s / 2s when currently dead last

... because that's what I was talking about.

 

[Jeremias]

The way I see it Carlton are not good enough; current wooden spooners with two wins, bookies choice for bottom 2 in '19 etc.

to be giving away top 2 draft picks. At this point in the carlton rebuild, they should not be giving away such valuable assets.

We didn't give up a top 2 draft pick, we gave up our 2019 1st, and at this point in time nobody knows where that will fall exactly.

Not even these bookies you seem infatuated with.

They think they are in phase two - apparently SOS own words as evidence by the stocker deal yet every team has good young players (like Brisbane for example), not sure if carltons are numerous enough or as what they reckon

A hilarious comment given we gave up the opportunity to bring one good young player for the opportunity to bring in two.

 

[Marcel Proust]

We didn't give up a top 2 draft pick, we gave up our 2019 1st, and at this point in time nobody knows where that will fall exactly.

Not even these bookies you seem infatuated with.



A hilarious comment given we gave up the opportunity to bring one good young player for the opportunity to bring in two.

Your completely correct. Adelaide could come last and Carlton could win the premiership with a pick1 for good measure.

Im not obsessed with gambling; i just think it gives a unbiased outlook as opposed to us footy fans

I was trying to write "not sure if good enough" - apologies for the poor English

 

[HARKER]

you can support a club and not every decision they make
especially when as radical as offloading pick 1s / 2s when currently dead last

I guess I have to point out one simple little possibility here again; Given the CFC had Stocker at #6 in last years strong draft, what if they evaluated that to be a better bet than possibly for anyone available in this years draft?

We here, talk about draft numbers as having the same value year in year out, but they simply don't.
Most recruiters have a fair idea as to what may be on the menu in the following years draft and now with future and live trading have to make decisions based on what they see and foresee.

Has everyone already got....I don't know....let's say Rowell. a better player than for what Stocker will become and if so, how and why?

 

[ManOfClay]

If you're going to label me a cheerleader because of my support of my team .

I labelled you a cheerleader for the ridiculous assertion that Casboult is close to the best forward/ruck in the afl. So are you saying you only said that because you support Carlton?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Has everyone already got....I don't know....let's say Rowell. a better player than for what Stocker will become and if so, how and why?

i know next to nothing about it, however some of those that do follow it closely, have said yes and by a significant margin - specifically in regards to rowell.

Who you, iirc do not have in "your top 12" for next season - i am still interesting in seeing that list please

We here, talk about draft numbers as having the same value year in year out, but they simply don't.
Most recruiters have a fair idea as to what may be on the menu in the following years draft and now with future and live trading have to make decisions based on what they see and foresee.

yep

Adelaide recruiters too

 

[Fadge]

If you're going to label me a cheerleader because of my support of my team - whether legitimate or poor - then I'm going to label you a troll for your attack on me (however mild it was) rather than the team I support or my support of them

This statement sums up BigFooty to a tee.

You can make as many outlandish, unrealistic, illegitimate, baseless statements as you like about your own club, simply because you're supporting them.

However, if you make any negative comments about a club you don't support, regardless of the multitude of facts used to support those comments, you are a troll.

 

[Gethelred]

I labelled you a cheerleader for the ridiculous assertion that Casboult is close to the best forward/ruck in the afl. So are you saying you only said that because you support Carlton?

No, I'm saying that because - and I've said this elsewhere in here - AFL fans frequently get it wrong. To call Casboult a list clogger is to do someone who is nearly entirely at the mercy of the midfield he's spent a career in front of a disservice.

You place 50% of the KPF's drafted since he was selected in the same circumstances, and I nearly guarantee to you that their return would be similar. You place him in front of a) Geelong's midfield, b) the Bulldogs midfield, c) Sydney's midfield, and d) GWS's midfield he'd be a completely different player, because, like I said, in those teams his role would become more valuable as he would not be needed to be all things.

If he was free - like Leigh Brown was free at Collingwood - to break a pack open, to be the third tall rather than always the lynchpin, he's rather a different proposition entirely. But then, considering your desire to paint anything Carlton in various shades of smelly brown, I'm not surprised you are unwilling to follow this logic in any way whatsoever.

 

[Gethelred]

This statement sums up BigFooty to a tee.

You can make as many outlandish, unrealistic, illegitimate, baseless statements as you like about your own club, simply because you're supporting them.

However, if you make any negative comments about a club you don't support, regardless of the multitude of facts used to support those comments, you are a troll.

... and this post sums up the Carlton threads in the main board to a tee.

Opposition poster makes s**t argument about Carlton. Carlton poster responds. Opposition makes s**t argument again. Carlton poster tells them their argument is poor. Opposition makes s**t argument for the third time, not addressing anything in any oppositional post, nor really making a case beyond "player x is s**t", "WHy didn't the blues pick up Lambert? How did you miss him?!!!", "Lobbe is a list cloggggerrrrr!!!1".

Carlton fan calls opposition poster a troll. Fadge pops up with this particular gem. Rinse, lather, repeat.

I could go into your desire to paint my perspective as 'outlandish, unrealistic, illegitimate, baseless' - I'm surprised you left off heretical, or slanderous, or outrageous - despite the fact that the claim I made was statistically based, by the metrics of goals averaged per match, and by hitouts. So, at the very least, baseless is out. I could also say that no-one has actually tried to make the counterargument to that position in any way statistically; so, the claim itself stands. So, outlandish and unrealistic is out, and so is illegitimate.

I'm also rather amused by the extent to which your posting becomes more audacious and plentiful when you have support.

... so, how about it, Fadge? You going to step upto the plate, actually commit to doing some analysis, rather than just talking from your arse as is the usual?

 

[bungalow_bill]

Some Carlton fans seem wedded to the idea that Stocker is a top 5 pick according to SOS. This may be time will tell. But 17 other clubs didn't rate him in the top 20. It's possible he may have slid to the late 20's if Carlton hadn't taken him at 19.

 

[StevoJenkins]

... and this post sums up the Carlton threads in the main board to a tee.

Opposition poster makes s**t argument about Carlton. Carlton poster responds. Opposition makes s**t argument again. Carlton poster tells them their argument is poor. Opposition makes s**t argument for the third time, not addressing anything in any oppositional post, nor really making a case beyond "player x is s**t", "WHy didn't the blues pick up Lambert? How did you miss him?!!!", "Lobbe is a list cloggggerrrrr!!!1".

Carlton fan calls opposition poster a troll. Fadge pops up with this particular gem. Rinse, lather, repeat.

I could go into your desire to paint my perspective as 'outlandish, unrealistic, illegitimate, baseless' - I'm surprised you left off heretical, or slanderous, or outrageous - despite the fact that the claim I made was statistically based, by the metrics of goals averaged per match, and by hitouts. So, at the very least, baseless is out. I could also say that no-one has actually tried to make the counterargument to that position in any way statistically; so, the claim itself stands. So, outlandish and unrealistic is out, and so is illegitimate.

I'm also rather amused by the extent to which your posting becomes more audacious and plentiful when you have support.

... so, how about it, Fadge? You going to step upto the plate, actually commit to doing some analysis, rather than just talking from your arse as is the usual?

I mean, have you had a look at the thread "Where Will Carlton Finish In 2019?" It's not what you've described here. It's full of Carlton supporters calling everyone trolls, ignoring the points made by non-Carlton supporters, Carlton supporters "counter trolling", Carlton supporters insulting others, Carlton supporters making Carlton's performance about other teams for some reason and Carlton supporters getting mad at people making predictions.

Seems like this thread is following the same pattern of that thread if recent posts on this thread are anything to go by.

 

[HARKER]

i know next to nothing about it, however some of those that do follow it closely, have said yes and by a significant margin - specifically in regards to rowell.
Who you, iirc do not have in "your top 12" for next season - i am still interesting in seeing that list please

yep
Adelaide recruiters too

I have no such list.
There will always be good players in every draft, but the top few in last years draft were just a little more special than usual.
How they'll come through the AFL system though, is as usual, a wait and se affair.

Maybe Adelaide recruiters didn't like anyone else after their pick #16, or just had a surplus of the types that followed, Stocker included.
Clearly the CFC did like what was still available on the table and a player they were more than happy 'reaching' for.

One has to remember though that Carlton still have a first rounder in hand this year and even after the year and trade period play out, we still won't be sure as to whether the trade was a good one or not. I mean it was for the CFC, but the general football consumer still needs more 'proof'

 

[HARKER]

Some Carlton fans seem wedded to the idea that Stocker is a top 5 pick according to SOS. This may be time will tell. But 17 other clubs didn't rate him in the top 20. It's possible he may have slid to the late 20's if Carlton hadn't taken him at 19.

Anything is possible.
Maybe Fyfe would have slid to the 30's if not for Fremantle, Patrick Cripps to the 20's if not for Carlton, Yeo to the 50's if not for Brisbane.

It doesn't really matter. The only thing that matters is that you have to back your convictions and the CFC did.
If it turns out to be a stinker, it will need to be addressed, but until then......yawn.

 

[jezzajay]

Is there any other club in the competition that use valuable list space - in the case of Carlton you have listed FOUR - on players that they don't intend to play seniors, either currently or develop them to play at some stage in the future?

If that was my club I'd be ropable.

I don’t know and don’t really care what other clubs do.

 

[tonygeeks]

Yawn. Just another who hasn’t bothered to look at the trade in its entirety.

There is a lot more to it than simply judging the trade on what pick we may have given up.

If Stockers a good player it's a good trade , nothing more to say about it really


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[Gethelred]

I mean, have you had a look at the thread "Where Will Carlton Finish In 2019?" It's not what you've described here. It's full of Carlton supporters calling everyone trolls, ignoring the points made by non-Carlton supporters, Carlton supporters "counter trolling", Carlton supporters insulting others, Carlton supporters making Carlton's performance about other teams for some reason and Carlton supporters getting mad at people making predictions.

Seems like this thread is following the same pattern of that thread if recent posts on this thread are anything to go by.

I have, but bear in mind, these threads become something of self-fulfilling prophesies, as posters refuse point blank to engage with the post in front of them and instead take to calling players and coaches s**t without saying why. Posters on both sides have hardly covered themselves in glory here.

My issue, with this particular thread, is that it's all about Carlton where - if the poll results are anything to go by - it should be all about Brisbane and their prospects next year. If Fadge or ManOfClay wants to quote any of my posts over there - in the 'Where will Carlton finish in 2019' thread, or in the 'All things Carlton' mega thread - that's fine by me; it'd be a better thread for what we're discussing, whether it be my cheerleading or their most definitely not trolling.

If people have something to say about the rebuilds and how they compare - beyond just saying 'Brisbane are going to be awesome, Carlton are not' - then that's all to the good from me.