Analysis The Rebuild Of Essendon And North Melbourne And Their Future Prospects

[owen87]

Understand that they weren't rebuilding at that time. My view on how Essendon have been managed from a list perspective, is that they probably should have rebuilt back then. They're in a fortunate situation that two of their brightest prospects (McGrath & Parish) are 23 & 24 year old midfielders as they started this "refresh"/"restump" whatever we want to call it.

I don't think there is any right or wrong way (although I am a big advocate that the majority of star mids are taken in the first 5 picks, which is my concern with Hawthorns build), I just think it's an interesting comparison & similarity (whether it was intentional or not).

In hindsight, yes, but I'd say the off-season where we brought in Smith, Stringer & Saad off the back of Daniher being an AA Full-Forward at 23 made sense at the time, and still makes sense now given he'd been extremely durable up to that point.

Looking at our 2017 list we had; Merrett, McGrath, Parish, Francis, Langford, Laverde, Ridley and Draper who would all arguably make up the 'core' group we're building around now, most of whom have showed they're clear AFL standard.

Essendon's is more a slow-refresh than a total rebuild, we've turned over a lot of players since 2017 without having any one single season where we've clearly started over with the playing group.

 

[Sphynx]

Top line? There is no one on your list under the age of 25 who has been in the AA squad or team. We've had 2 in Parish and Ridley.

You had no players nominated for the rising star in 2021. We had three - Jones, Cox and Perkins.

None of these guys are 'top line players':

Jy Simpkin
Tarryn Thomas
Luke Davies Uniacke
Will Phillips
Tom Powell
Jaidyn Stephenson
Nick Larkey
Ben Mckay
CCJ
Cam Zurhaar

Simpkin is the closest but I wouldn't say he's even top 50 in the comp. There's certainly potential there but the best players on your list are still Cunnington and Goldstein and then there is a gaping hole.

Yet we had 4 in 2019 and Essendon had 1 in Dylan Clarke. We then went on and recruited the 2019 RS winner.

Essendon had 0 vs our 1 (Curtis Taylor) in 2020

Not sure it's a great measuring stick. Powell was one of the better rookies this season and didn't get nominated. Ridley was never nominated.

Both sides had 1 player each in the 22under22 (fan voted) in Ridley and Stephenson.

I'm guessing we will have quite a strong contingent in 2022.

 

[The Warlord]

Rising Star noms lololololololol

 

[emblurr]

Rising Star noms lololololololol

People wouldn't want a list that had four Rising Star noms last year and finished the year with a nice burst? OK.

Say what? Does look like you rate teams with 'Rising Star noms'

 

[Beerfish]

Oh what a tangled web we weave..

 

[TonaldDrump]

Essendon's list managed to get nearly 3x the amount of wins and 37% more in percentage than North Melbourne had in the 2021 season.

Doesn't seem too bad... Right?

When you look at the age demographics, Essendon had a younger and more inexperienced list than North's this year. It's quite hard to see how North's list will improve when their young players have shown nothing that exceeds any of the other clubs young players.

North will be in the bottom six for another 6-8 years with their current list.

 

[The Nostradamus]

^lool refer back a few pages to the respective 23 and under teams for comparison

 

[TonaldDrump]

^lool refer back a few pages to the respective 23 and under teams for comparison

The post where you claim that North's list is superior to all other lists in the league? Okay, champ.

How many wins did you rack up this season with those elite 23 and under? Was it 3 or 4?

 

[Sphynx]

The post where you claim that North's list is superior to all other lists in the league? Okay, champ.

Probably just as delusional as bottom 6 for the next 8 years tbh.

 

[The Nostradamus]

The post where you claim that North's list is superior to all other lists in the league? Okay, champ.

How many wins did you rack up this season with those elite 23 and under? Was it 3 or 4?

Lool you do realise the wins and losses this season just show our older core isn’t up to scratch

which isn’t even being debated

the thread is about future prospects

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Essendon's list managed to get nearly 3x the amount of wins and 37% more in percentage than North Melbourne had in the 2021 season.

Doesn't seem too bad... Right?

When you look at the age demographics, Essendon had a younger and more inexperienced list than North's this year. It's quite hard to see how North's list will improve when their young players have shown nothing that exceeds any of the other clubs young players.

North will be in the bottom six for another 6-8 years with their current list.

6-8 years? Are you on crack ? Wouldn't shock me at me if North finished ahead of Essendon next season, and even if they don't that post is absolute camel ****.
Despite winning the spoon last season, North are doing pretty well for a club just starting a hard list rebuild

 

[Engimal v3]

Why are people still trying to compare Norf and essendon?

We are both at totally different stages.

Agreed. There's no way to know what Essendon's list will look like when the rebuild begins.

 

[andrewb]

The post where you claim that North's list is superior to all other lists in the league? Okay, champ.

How many wins did you rack up this season with those elite 23 and under? Was it 3 or 4?

it was zero when Cunnington didn’t play

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I just don't see any of North's KPP becoming Elite and I'm not sold on a midfield solo carrying a team to success. Doggies are a perfect example of a team with huge midfield stocks but it wasn't until Naughton and Keath came along and improved til they rocketed up the ladder again. Even those two I think have massive limitations as players, Bruce too... but they present as far more formidable physical presences than anyone I've seen at North so far.

You need to have a great balance of good KPPs and a gun midfield to get the job done these days and right now all North has is a good developing young midfield and a decent Key back. Essendon still have a big hole in terms of KPF but that's really it for now, a couple years they'll need some KPD to go with Reid too.

 

[Desync]

I just don't see any of North's KPP becoming Elite and I'm not sold on a midfield solo carrying a team to success. Doggies are a perfect example of a team with huge midfield stocks but it wasn't until Naughton and Keath came along and improved til they rocketed up the ladder again. Even those two I think have massive limitations as players, Bruce too... but they present as far more formidable physical presences than anyone I've seen at North so far.

You need to have a great balance of good KPPs and a gun midfield to get the job done these days and right now all North has is a good developing young midfield and a decent Key back. Essendon still have a big hole in terms of KPF but that's really it for now, a couple years they'll need some KPD to go with Reid too.

Are you sure you are a Carlton supporter?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are you sure you are a Carlton supporter?

My brothers a Don's fan and somehow he's convinced me that Nik Cox is the chosen one (nothing to do with his supermodel sister )

 

[The Nostradamus]

I just don't see any of North's KPP becoming Elite and I'm not sold on a midfield solo carrying a team to success. Doggies are a perfect example of a team with huge midfield stocks but it wasn't until Naughton and Keath came along and improved til they rocketed up the ladder again. Even those two I think have massive limitations as players, Bruce too... but they present as far more formidable physical presences than anyone I've seen at North so far.

You need to have a great balance of good KPPs and a gun midfield to get the job done these days and right now all North has is a good developing young midfield and a decent Key back. Essendon still have a big hole in terms of KPF but that's really it for now, a couple years they'll need some KPD to go with Reid too.

I’m pretty confident in Mckay and Larkey as book ends

CCJ will be handy in the ruck and forward

then just need one of Comben or Edwards to be that other ruck/forward

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I’m pretty confident in Mckay and Larkey as book ends

CCJ will be handy in the ruck and forward

then just need one of Comben or Edwards to be that other ruck/forward

I don't doubt they are both serviceable players but when you compare them to the best KPP's in the comp they are simply miles off it physically. Both of them seem like extremely good 2nd strings who still need the main men next to them. I've even seen a lot of North fans say exactly that about Larkey for a couple of years now.

Brisbane, Doggies and Pies in 2018 are the first examples that come to mind when I think of really solid teams with great midfields and flankers who simply lack enough Elite KPP talent to hold up the cup at the end. There's no doubt in my mind if Brisbane had prime Daniher, Dogs had better KPD or Pies had Moore for the grand final they would have taken home a flag. Could say the same about the Cats not having a good ruck all these years too

Until you draft some players or some internally develop into this type, I just can't see the list build making a deep run into finals. The Logan McDonald decision is still hugely puzzling as it seemed like a perfect fit for North. A pairing of Larkey and McDonald could have been a great duo to spearhead the attack for years to come

 

[blitzer]

Yet we had 4 in 2019 and Essendon had 1 in Dylan Clarke. We then went on and recruited the 2019 RS winner.

Essendon had 0 vs our 1 (Curtis Taylor) in 2020

Not sure it's a great measuring stick. Powell was one of the better rookies this season and didn't get nominated. Ridley was never nominated.

Both sides had 1 player each in the 22under22 (fan voted) in Ridley and Stephenson.

I'm guessing we will have quite a strong contingent in 2022.

Agreed - rising star nominations is not a great indicator of talent on a list.
There's a host of ways where talented players won't get nominated.
If you're a 1st year player 18/19 y/o getting regular games at AFL level - odds are you're probably going to be at least a decent AFL player.

Sometimes it can count against you playing lots of games as a first year player if you just barely miss out on being nominated. By the time those same players get to their 3rd year they would have easily won a nomination (without the games limit)- eg Powell probably fits in that camp.

Ridley was a funny one in that he didn't crack the AFL side until his 3rd year, played a handful of games and only looked like your ordinary half back flanker with nice skills. Then the next year won our B&F after he was no longer eligible for rising star. That rate of improvement is pretty unusual but it happens sometimes.

 

[Farm Boy]

6-8 years? Are you on crack ? Wouldn't shock me at me if North finished ahead of Essendon next season, and even if they don't that post is absolute camel ****.
Despite winning the spoon last season, North are doing pretty well for a club just starting a hard list rebuild

6-8 years is about right. North need to bottom out as much as they can, it’s the only way to get in that top shelf talent they desperately need. It would shock everyone if North finished anywhere near Essendon next year. Essendon have drafted extremely well lately. As a result, I’d expect their improvement alone next year will be far ahead of North’s. North are in the infancy of a rebuild. If a full rebuild is at 12, then North are at 3.


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[Gavin Excell]

Essendon big leap ahead year this year
Historically though it’s often the case that improvement isn’t linear. While reckon Dons have the building blocks in place, every chance they could go backward next year

 

[Liam Boy]

While they made a massive mistake taking Phillips, the core of Thomas, Francis-Horne, Stephenson, Powell, Simpkin, LDU, will be steam rolling teams in 3-4 years.

Looks like Will's been reading bigfooty. Out to prove the doubters wrong

 

[andrewb]

Essendon big leap ahead year this year
Historically though it’s often the case that improvement isn’t linear. While reckon Dons have the building blocks in place, every chance they could go backward next year

I expect we will go backwards next year

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Looks like Will's been reading bigfooty. Out to prove the doubters wrong

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he’s always been fit and professional. The question isn’t will he be capable, it’s would the side have been much better served taking a KPF.

 

[Liam Boy]

he’s always been fit and professional. The question isn’t will he be capable, it’s would the side have been much better served taking a KPF.

No, probably not. They didn't know Charlie Comben was going to miss most of the season. Now that we've recruited CCJ it's pretty much a non-issue, far more depth there.