Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[Aristotle Pickett]

Freo have constructed a very strong list from the draft and still have Fyfe so I expect them to be a top 4 team very soon.
Carlton have relied more on trades with good players but those players have less upside than younger draft picks imo.

 

[Sturty2Hurty]

I think Carlton have two positions covered that we don't - the gut running match-winner in Walsh and the mountain KPF in McKay. Carlton have more top end talent but we have a little more depth and blue-collar types. It's going to be an interesting one to watch.

 

[Rich01]

In terms of Carltons best team for next year, I think it will be something like this.

B: McGovern Weitering Marchbank
HB: Saad Young Williams
C: Philp Cripps Kemp
HF: Martin Curnow Honey
F: Durdin McKay Silvagni
OB: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Docherty (back) Stocker (mid) Hewett (mid) Owies/Motlop (Forward)
SUB: E Curnow

Green: New player or practically new.
Blue: Not new but close to it.
Red: New Role.

I like the look of this side.
May not be ready next year with some young players in some crucial positions, but with more experience I think there is a really good core there to work with.

Games can’t be gifted to players just because they were high draft picks anymore, and I think Voss will make players earn their spot more than has occurred in the past.

At the end of the year I’d expect to see further trimming of the list with guys that just aren’t up to taking the next step shown the door.

I’d expect at least 6 of the following names to be off the Carlton list by the end of 2022:

Dow, Setterfield, Kennedy, Cuningham, Marchbank, Williamson, LOB, McDonald, Cottrell, Fogarty and Newnes.

Will be interesting to see which of these step up in 2022, as this would be a nice little bonus for the club.

 

[Arr0w]

Dockers building a very good young list, goal for them is how they transition the older players still contributing to best 22, while getting consistency into their youth coming through

Both sides very thin for genuine KPD's

 

[Dockeroo]

13 pages in and the best young player drafted at the dockers (apart from Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

25

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

) over the last few years hasn’t even been mentioned.
Heath Chapman.
Will be a multiple AA winner by the end of his career.
Bookmark this post.

 

[RonnieRaven]

13 pages in and the best young player drafted at the dockers (apart from Sean Darcy) over the last few years hasn’t even been mentioned.
Heath Chapman.
Will be a multiple AA winner by the end of his career.
Bookmark this post.

Chapman whos 20 before 2022 season has a bit of work to do to overtake:
Rising star, AFLPA best first year player 2020
AFLCA best young player, derby medalist, goal of the year winner 2021 future captain Caleb serong who is 20

 

[WillHayward]

Bloke who can make a huge difference for Freo is Sam Sturt

1

Sam Sturt

Age

23

Ht

190cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.7

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.7

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.7

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.3

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.3

5star

.

If he becomes a 40 goal a season player it is just what they need.

 

[sdfc]

Freo have nailed the last few drafts. I haven't felt this bullish since the first half of 2015.

 

[Vintage]

Freo’s missing a power forward, that’s my main concern - rest of the list is really solid And should be pushing top 6 in 2023.

carlton have a great spine, I think they will finish ahead of Freo in 2022.

 

[gbatman]

IMO both clubs are on track, Carlton in terms of their time line may be a year ahead but both are doing well. Blues due next year, maybe the year after for Freo. Lets see how both clubs bring it home.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Have only read the most recent page but this thread seems weirdly respectful...

But yeah I think both sides would be optimistic with where they are at. I'm probably in the minority of neutrals but I feel Voss was a good appointment and the amount of high end talent they have: With a disciplined core and board shake-up they've had I'd expect Carlton to not only make finals this season but to push (possibly make but not too likely at this stage) the Top 4. I think we should be aiming for finals but I'm still concerned we're slightly behind in KPF talent but I'm at least enjoying footy more than I was during the last of the Lyon years (and I have a lot of respect for, admittedly short lasting and lacking a premiership, the successful times he did give us).

Am thoroughly confident in Carltons prospects though

 

[DanWA]

Fremantle is the easy pick here. The club has also promised a flag.

Carlton are not far off though but look to be headed in the right direction

 

[Milux]

Im looking forward to the next " The rebuilds of Carlton and "insert struggling team" episode.

 

[Proper Gander]

Carlton should get up there soonish. It feels like a lot depends on Voss. He could go fine but I’m not sure what his coaching credentials are that mean this is going to happen. Whether he can get players to buy-in quickly will be important

 

[Robertio]

Carlton should get up there soonish. It feels like a lot depends on Voss. He could go fine but I’m not sure what his coaching credentials are that mean this is going to happen. Whether he can get players to buy-in quickly will be important

You've hit the nail on the head here PG, all players have to buy in, something they haven't done for the two previous coaches.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Have only read the most recent page but this thread seems weirdly respectful...

But yeah I think both sides would be optimistic with where they are at. I'm probably in the minority of neutrals but I feel Voss was a good appointment and the amount of high end talent they have: With a disciplined core and board shake-up they've had I'd expect Carlton to not only make finals this season but to push (possibly make but not too likely at this stage) the Top 4. I think we should be aiming for finals but I'm still concerned we're slightly behind in KPF talent but I'm at least enjoying footy more than I was during the last of the Lyon years (and I have a lot of respect for, admittedly short lasting and lacking a premiership, the successful times he did give us).

Am thoroughly confident in Carltons prospects though

You missed a cracker early on
My favourite was Luke Ryan 2020 AA who’s held our back line together with the long absence of Pearce and hamiling is not an AA caliber player .

 

[Piggy Smalls]

You missed a cracker early on
My favourite was Luke Ryan 2020 AA who’s held our back line together with the long absence of Pearce and hamiling is not an AA caliber player .

To be fair nobody on the east coast without Foxtel would know who he is.

 

[SHill Shall]

Fremantle is the easy pick here. The club has also promised a flag.

Carlton are not far off though but look to be headed in the right direction

Get back under your bridge!

 

[Dockeroo]

Having watched Carlton a few times last year, they certainly have some good elite talent on paper. But I thought there bottom six players on several occasions were woeful. A lot of very average AFL players getting game time it seems to me. If you are pushing a large chunk of your cap towards players like Cripps, Mackay, Cerra, Weitering, Williams, Saad, Martin, Walsh, you are gonna end up with some weaker role players.

 

[Lach72]

I love McKay and Walsh.
Don't mind Weitering but I'm not as high on him as others, and it will be very interesting to see how he goes this year with Jones gone.

Curnow is the joker in the pack...who knows what he could do?

There's a high quota of flake in some high paid recruits. Martin, McGovern, Williams and to a lesser extent Saad are swallowing a lot of cap for * all output.

Cerra and Hewett are very nice additions. Cerra's ball use is elite...you won't notice him as much as Walsh as he won't get 35 every week, but he'll cut you up with 20...Was desperately unhappy to lose him.
Dow is delist material, Fisher I quite like...I think the addition of Motlop was good.

As for us, I feel we are still one draft away from a completely balanced list.
I'd like Lobb to be traded this coming year for a second round and for us to take the best power forward and small forward we can get our hands on.
Amiss, Erasmus and Johnson were perfect for us, given Rachele was off the board.
I have a lot of time for most of the young kids we have coming though. Brayshaw, Serong, Clark, Young, Henry, Darcy, Amiss, Treacy, Chapman, Walker, Frederick, Erasmus, Johnson and Mundy are a great bunch of kids to build around
If we can keep Taberner and Sturt fit this year I think we'll scrape into the 8, and pushing on from there
I think the new coach will have Carlton miss the 8...but they should push into it soon after

 

[Sphynx]

Freo went slightly sideways in the offseason.

Whilst Johnson was a good get at that point in the draft, they nailed the draft from the perspective of getting WA talent for fair value IMO.

They still lost Cerra, so at best it's a break even between he and Erasmus, with Erasmus obviously requiring the years of development they had already invested in Cerra. They would have drafted Amiss regardless.

I think Clark will be a decent recruit.

Not sure you can count on Fyfe going forward at this point, any involvement in a future tilt they would consider a bonus imo.

Will be interested to see how they go, I'm bullish on them, probably just not as high as most.

 

[WilloTree]

and Mundy are a great bunch of kids

nice one

 

[eastfreo75]

Freo went slightly sideways in the offseason.

Whilst Johnson was a good get at that point in the draft, they nailed the draft from the perspective of getting WA talent for fair value IMO.

They still lost Cerra, so at best it's a break even between he and Erasmus, with Erasmus obviously requiring the years of development they had already invested in Cerra. They would have drafted Amiss regardless.

I think Clark will be a decent recruit.

Not sure you can count on Fyfe going forward at this point, any involvement in a future tilt they would consider a bonus imo.

Will be interested to see how they go, I'm bullish on them, probably just not as high as most.

Cerra goes out in Clarke comes in. Doesn't even out but reduces the loss of Cerra.

The big issue at Fremantle is keeping players on the park and especially tall structural players.

List of talls and number of games

Lobb played 13 games. Missing 9 games
Taberner played 16 games. Missing 6 games
Treacy played 15 games. Missing 0.
Darcy played 21 games only missing 1 game.

Total 15 missing games and structurally it destroys you.

Meek played 9 games because of the injuries plus no depth.

Amiss comes in to add some depth and if we can reduce the number of games from 15 to 10 that would result in 1-2 more wins.

While talking about height in the forward, only Banfield and Sturt were 4th talls. Banfield isn't much of a player but Sturt missed 20 games. Now, we have Eramus and a fit Sturt would cover that height issue in the forward.

In the backline we never settled with some many injuries.

Pearce missed 12 games, Hamling 21games, Logue 6 games, Cox 10 games and Chapman 14 games.

It really derailed our season with some many talls out and if we can reduce it to a moderate level then Fremantle is playing finals.

 

[theGav56]

Cerra goes out in Clarke comes in. Doesn't even out but reduces the loss of Cerra.

Brodie added as well, and while I don't expect him to replace Cerra he could be a contributer.

I'm not overly fussed about a comparison with Carlton. If Voss can get their heads in the game they will do okay. We need another season or two and just need to keep moving forward.

 

[gungho]

The problem with Carlton is they've tried to reinvent the wheel when it comes to obtaining success.
Every team in the last 15 years has built a solid foundation through drafting, and then topped up with trading.
Carlton did not finished building the base before trying stupid s**t like paying 800k a year to a half back flanker.
To be fair, Freo have made the same blunders (Jess Hogan) but they are less frequent and not as recent.

So why did Carlton do this? Poor list management? Lack of strategic thinking at the top? Or just succumbing to pressure from the board, members, and pundits on their unquenchable thirst for success, and constantly needing to justify the "breakout team of the year" tag that gets thrown at them every preseason by the media - rather than patiently building for success? Got a feeling it's the latter.