Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[geelong_crazy26]

Well go back to the question your initial post on the subject raised. Who has drafted better overall in the last 10 drafts?

10 years?? I was referencing the prospective new periods of the clubs ( current geelong young players vs current Richmond young players) which I had not really defined yet for semantics.

But for ten years, I would have to have a think about it and get back to you tbh.

 

[Andyy]

I thought Short was poor and is having a bad year to date.

Lefau very raw. Kosi very limited but I thought he looked better rucking than forward.

Miller and Young have been excellent given they have about 50 games between them and with the likes of Grimes and Balta out.

Agree on the rest. It's not all doom and gloom that's for sure. Brown has been brilliant IMO, Campbell too. Shame about McAuliffe's debut as sub and injury but I am bullish on him.

We really need to weed out some older blokes. Pickett, KMac, Prestia, Grimes etc.

Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Rioli and Short were all good to outstanding. Almost enough to drag Richmond to another victory. The upper end of the list is performing well really.

From the young-ish players, Brown was good in defence and Ross workmanlike between the arcs. Campbell showed plenty again. MRJ did a few nice things.

Unfortunately there was the injury to McAuliffe. Not a lot shown by Dow, Lefau, Kozzy, Miller, Mansell or Young. I'm guessing these would be the 6 or 7 spots (besides Young) where returning senior players would slot straight back in.

 

[BF Tiger]

I thought Short was poor and is having a bad year to date.

Lefau very raw. Kosi very limited but I thought he looked better rucking than forward.

Miller and Young have been excellent given they have about 50 games between them and with the likes of Grimes and Balta out.

Agree on the rest. It's not all doom and gloom that's for sure. Brown has been brilliant IMO, Campbell too. Shame about McAuliffe's debut as sub and injury but I am bullish on him.

We really need to weed out some older blokes. Pickett, KMac, Prestia, Grimes etc.

It's certainly not all doom and gloom. There is a long time before this re-build plays out, and TBH, I'm not particularly concerned where most of these players are now. What I want to see is constant improvement (which won't be linear), but I accept there will also be setbacks.

Go back ten years and half the reviews of our youngsters that you are reading now were possibly being said about Edwards, Grigg, Ellis, Grimes, Astbury, McIntosh, Houli, Castagna... Probably even Riewoldt (selfish), Cotch (not damaging), Dusty (flashy, inconsistent).

For a good laugh look up the Prestia dumb as dogshit thread.

 

[Do the Dew]

Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Rioli and Short were all good to outstanding. Almost enough to drag Richmond to another victory. The upper end of the list is performing well really.

From the young-ish players, Brown was good in defence and Ross workmanlike between the arcs. Campbell showed plenty again. MRJ did a few nice things.

Unfortunately there was the injury to McAuliffe. Not a lot shown by Dow, Lefau, Kozzy, Miller, Mansell or Young. I'm guessing these would be the 6 or 7 spots (besides Young) where returning senior players would slot straight back in.

Miller and Young played on King and Membrey who kicked a combined 2.1 between them. I thought Miller and Young were outstanding.

 

[Mr Meow]

Miller and Young played on King and Membrey who kicked a combined 2.1 between them. I thought Miller and Young were outstanding.

Fair enough. The modern game is built on rebounding interceptors though, so two players who can basically lock down but not do anything else is sub-optimal IMO.

6 intercepts and 7 rebound 50s between Miller and Young on the weekend. They would want their lockdown work to be immaculate to both remain in the same team. While there are injuries it makes sense.

 

[Grrr]

Except yesterday where Dusty was awesome? One of the coaches had him 2nd best on ground. Which is where I would've had him too. I thought he was super.

Also Taranto is 26 not 25. A Tiger post without a factual error seems impossible in this thread.

Rather small in terms of things, almost trivial.

 

[Grrr]

I would say in terms of list positions richmond has had longer to play kids than geelong has. We came fourth in 2021, then premiers with the oldest list in the AFL in 2022. Richmond finished much lower both seasons and it was obvious you were finished.

Geelong in general has just had far better player management recruiting and transition.

We went and got henry and bruhn, you guys got hopper and Taranto.

We have also nailed rookie picks like Dempsey, max Holmes SDK and Conway with pick 20 and 24, while you guys used similar picks on Thomson Dow and Tom brown. We picked jhye Clark with pick 8, you picked gibcus with pick 6 who is looking a bit of a bust and one of those injury prone types.

We are not “ahead” we have just managed our list better with our planning

Strange post. Dow is playing centre mid right now. Has played the last 7 games and done well enough bar one or two. Jury is out granted.
Did you watch Brown on the weekend, he was excellent, more so for a 4 gamer.
Gibcus is a bust because he had a bad hammy and got pushed in a marking contest for an ACL. That is hardly the recruiters/player development folk fault anyway.
Taranto has been great and Hopper unlucky, but being injury prone might not have been worth the risk.
We had a coach who had no faith in youth and too much in his old chargers, that is what kept Richmond behind, as the results of a new coach are starting to show. All of a sudden we have some young players who look like they may be players.

 

[Grrr]

You just did this weird post ordering all the players of the last decade in order of “merit” whatever that apparently means in this scenario, instead of just simply posting their draft position.

I think you did it deliberately because you know how well geelong has recruited especially late to rookie picks

Here's a list of late picks and rookies at Richmond who have played in the last year.
Grimes - PSD
Baker - Short - Mansell - Campbell - rookies
Pickett - Young - Trezise - Bauer - Lefau - Coulthard - mid season draft
Late draft picks (0ver 50) Broad - 67, Miller - 63, Rioli - 51

That's 14 players, 10 played this week, 3 injured and 1 knocking on the door.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Fair enough. The modern game is built on rebounding interceptors though, so two players who can basically lock down but not do anything else is sub-optimal IMO.

6 intercepts and 7 rebound 50s between Miller and Young on the weekend. They would want their lockdown work to be immaculate to both remain in the same team. While there are injuries it makes sense.

These are very young guys players that have lots or room to improve. Intercepting is something you get better at when you're confident, can read the play and know when to go and when not to

I would say we're trying to get them to focus just on the intercept part at the moment as that's what we need the most right now. We've got Vlaustin, Broad and Short who can play the intercepting role but not the lockdown roles. We're not going to throw them in and say go play and the oppositions best forward and also try to leave him when required to come across and intercept.

 

[Footy Smarts]

These are very young guys players that have lots or room to improve.

Young is the same age as Jack Henry. Miller is 18 months older than Sam De Koning with 2 extras preseasons under his belt.

"Very young players". You Tiger fans are great

 

[TiggerMan22]

You just did this weird post ordering all the players of the last decade in order of “merit” whatever that apparently means in this scenario, instead of just simply posting their draft position.

I think you did it deliberately because you know how well geelong has recruited especially late to rookie picks

Geelong has recruited very well late, but so has Richmond and I'm not sure anyone has Richmond topped since about 2014 in that area. Richmonds 2014 draft may be the GOAT late-rookie draft. 5 hits in round 4 of the draft + rookie is insane.

Pick 67: Butler - 131 games, 1xPremership Player, AA with the Saints
Rookie #11: Short - 158 games, 2xPremership Player, B&F in a flag year
Rookie #29: Castagna - 134 games, 3xPremiership Player
Rookie: #46 Lambert - 135 games, 3xPremiership Player
Rookie #68: Soldo - 61 games, 1xPremiership Player

2015: Markov at #50 and Broad at #67.
2016: Graham at #50 and Stengle at rookie draft #6
2017: Miller at #63 and Baker at rookie draft #114

 

[Muddiemoose]

Fair enough. The modern game is built on rebounding interceptors though, so two players who can basically lock down but not do anything else is sub-optimal IMO.

6 intercepts and 7 rebound 50s between Miller and Young on the weekend. They would want their lockdown work to be immaculate to both remain in the same team. While there are injuries it makes sense.

Intercepts can very much be role dependent, so isn’t really applicable when looking at Miller and Young who tend to play closer to goal to defend against the more dangerous forwards (both having 5 spoils for the game) also a reflection of that different role

Brown who is younger than both took 9 intercepts for the game and the highest amount for the team

Context matters

 

[Footy Smarts]

Rather small in terms of things, almost trivial.

It's amazing how many trivial mistakes you seen to make with them all being in a way to make your position sound better. Whether it's getting ages wrong, Ross' clearances wrong, Graham's tackles wrong.

FYI your post about rookie draftees is also wrong with 9 of that list playing on the weekend not 10. But I'm sure it's just another honest trivial mistake that once again makes Richmond look better than reality.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Young is the same age as Jack Henry. Miller is 18 months older than Sam De Koning with 2 extras preseasons under his belt.

"Very young players". You Tiger fans are great

That's true, they are older, my bad. I was meaning inexperienced in their roles. Young was rookie draft in 2023 and Millers been played all over the ground as a forward/ruck/defender.

But not sure what De Koning has to do with it? Do you normally compare all players to him?

 

[TiggerMan22]

Intercepts can very much be role dependent, so isn’t really applicable when looking at Miller and Young who tend to play closer to goal to defend against the more dangerous forwards (both having 5 spoils for the game) also a reflection of that different role

Brown who is younger than both took 9 intercepts for the game and the highest amount for the team

Context matters

Browns also sitting #19 in the league for average intercept marks per game this year

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

We didn’t beat either the dogs or the saints last year in must win matches in the final month of the season and most people had Adelaide moving into the top 8, and we played them in Adelaide.

We can’t do much more than play who we play.

We were like $2.80 underdogs heading into the Adelaide game. Ridiculous to lump it in with games where we're paying $1.05 to try to prove it's evidence of an easy draw. Adelaide in Adelaide is never easy and - while top 8 will be difficult for them from here - the Crows will win their share of games, especially at home. We beat them by more than Melbourne did on the weekend and Melbourne's the form side of the comp. Similarly, the Dogs would have been knocking on the door of top four if they'd beaten us. Saints are 2-2 and should never have dropped the other game that they lost.

The fact is, regardless of easy months and tough months, when Geelong starts a season well, they invariably go on to make finals and generally top four. When we've missed finals over the past 20 years, we've started the season poorly and continued that trend: 2023 (0-3), 2015 (1-3), 2006 (2-4). Yes there's opponents who've been in hot form coming up and we'll probably drop a few games in April/May/June. Then again we've played three opponents who would have absolutely been expecting to be top eight heading into the season and another opponent who'd have probably been expecting to make another sharp improvement and be around the 9-12 range this year. I'm excited to see where we're at, bring it on.

A striking part of the four wins so far has been just how much they've been played on our terms, despite us not really thumping anyone as yet. We've played eight hours of footy and trailed for a combined 25 minutes. The most we've trailed in any game is for 15.41 against St Kilda (fewer than 6 minutes in each of the other three) and it works out to an average of trailing for about 6.18 in our games so far.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Geelong has recruited very well late, but so has Richmond and I'm not sure anyone has Richmond topped since about 2014 in that area. Richmonds 2014 draft may be the GOAT late-rookie draft. 5 hits in round 4 of the draft + rookie is insane.

Pick 67: Butler - 131 games, 1xPremership Player, AA with the Saints
Rookie #11: Short - 158 games, 2xPremership Player, B&F in a flag year
Rookie #29: Castagna - 134 games, 3xPremiership Player
Rookie: #46 Lambert - 135 games, 3xPremiership Player
Rookie #68: Soldo - 61 games, 1xPremiership Player

2015: Markov at #50 and Broad at #67.
2016: Graham at #50 and Stengle at rookie draft #6
2017: Miller at #63 and Baker at rookie draft #114

That was a good haul those years for sure.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That's true, they are older, my bad. I was meaning inexperienced in their roles. Young was rookie draft in 2023 and Millers been played all over the ground as a forward/ruck/defender.

But not sure what De Koning has to do with it? Do you normally compare all players to him?

Only key defenders in threads comparing another team to Geelong. Seems a pretty standard comparison to make.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Only key defenders in threads comparing another team to Geelong. Seems a pretty standard comparison to make.

Except this isn't a thread to compare which of 2 players is better, its comparing the rebuilds overall. I don't think anyone is arguing either of those guys are better than De Koning.

 

[Grrr]

It's amazing how many trivial mistakes you seen to make with them all being in a way to make your position sound better. Whether it's getting ages wrong, Ross' clearances wrong, Graham's tackles wrong.

FYI your post about rookie draftees is also wrong with 9 of that list playing on the weekend not 10. But I'm sure it's just another honest trivial mistake that once again makes Richmond look better than reality.

Honest mistakes, didn't really bother about checking Taranto's age, 25 or 26 year because it was hardly relevant, one year difference.

Baker not playing was an oversight, really 9 or 10. Next week there will probably be 11 but it hardly changes the premise that Richmond have not done well in the late draft/rookie as was the inference of the post.

Grahams tackles, Ross clearances, wrong again. I notice you didn't comment on the fact that Ross who you call ineffective had 14 score involvements in his first or second game as a half forward ever and that the more 'creative' Graham having played 118 games mainly forward has never had more than 10. Or that Ross had 20 effective disposals out of 24 on the weekend.

So there is a bit of selective quoting on both sides it seems.

 

[Grrr]

Young is the same age as Jack Henry. Miller is 18 months older than Sam De Koning with 2 extras preseasons under his belt.

"Very young players". You Tiger fans are great

'Young' is incorrect age wise. Experience wise not quite so.

Miller has played one game at as a tall back in the AFL before this season. They tried to make him into a forward ruck without much success. Has done very well in that respect, certainly not playing key back like a 5 gamer back man.

Young started playing country footy as 20 years old. He played 5 games for Frankson, 15 for Richmond and is holding down full back for a second year in the AFL. That is pretty impressive.

But yes, they are not young.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Grahams tackles, Ross clearances, wrong again. I notice you didn't comment on the fact that Ross who you call ineffective had 14 score involvements in his first or second game as a half forward ever and that the more 'creative' Graham having played 118 games mainly forward has never had more than 10. Or that Ross had 20 effective disposals out of 24 on the weekend.

So there is a bit of selective quoting on both sides it seems.

Go through their stats over their careers and from an attacking sense they're almost identical. Graham has slightly more score involvements, goals and disposals from sightly more game time. It's actually incredible how similar their stats are.

Nobody is going to mistake Graham for an attacking weapon.

The only real difference is tackles where Ross averages 1.8 per game while Graham averages 5.3.

Ross has Jack Graham's attacking game with Dustin Martin's defensive game. There's a reason he has been continually dropped and was left as sub in round 1 despite the Tigers missing players. When you've got some kids showing glimpses of talent I don't see why you would persist with Ross once guys like Hopper and Baker are back.

 

[Grrr]

Go through their stats over their careers and from an attacking sense they're almost identical. Graham has slightly more score involvements, goals and disposals from sightly more game time. It's actually incredible how similar their stats are.

Nobody is going to mistake Graham for an attacking weapon.

The only real difference is tackles where Ross averages 1.8 per game while Graham averages 5.3.

Ross has Jack Graham's attacking game with Dustin Martin's defensive game. There's a reason he has been continually dropped and was left as sub in round 1 despite the Tigers missing players. When you've got some kids showing glimpses of talent I don't see why you would persist with Ross once guys like Hopper and Baker are back.

First Ross was injured preseason so was short of a gallop rd.1. But Ross over Graham in nearly every aspect. First he gets his hands on the ball, he holds it even when being tackled and gets rid of it generally to advantage of a team mate, as his numbers suggested on the weekend. It may not look like much, but he gets the ball in tight, doesn't panic and uses it well. Ross is not a great tackler I'll give you that.

Graham is very much a running and linking player who has great gut running ability. He uses it pretty well enough because he is always on the move and takes pretty safe option, the 30-40m kick down the line usually hits a mark. But he is a low clearance player, and a pretty low contested possession player. Plus he doesn't get it much. He has cracked over 20 possessions 2 times in the last 21 matches. Ross 8 times in 24. He can also kick a lot further and with a lot more creativity. Graham is a good tackle and defensive player.

Can't find the score involvement stats, but Ross has played midfield, half back and wing. He played 4 games at half forward in late '22. But even in the game against Port this year he had 12 score involvements playing mid. Graham has played most of his games at high half forward, so you would expect more score involvements but his best in his career is 10. Ross's attacking game is so much better than Grahams.

Graham has had a few interrupted seasons with injury and when full fit he is not a bad player. But he missed 5 weeks and slotted straight back in, and it showed. Ross is improving, each year his numbers go up. He is finally being backed in by the coach and with games of 24 and 26 possessions in the last 3 weeks it show what the backing of a coach will do. Will he stay in the middle after Hopper and Prestia come back, maybe, but he can always take Graham's position, and there would be barely a ripple on the Richmond board.

 

[Footy Smarts]

First Ross was injured preseason so was short of a gallop rd.1. But Ross over Graham in nearly every aspect. First he gets his hands on the ball, he holds it even when being tackled and gets rid of it generally to advantage of a team mate, as his numbers suggested on the weekend. It may not look like much, but he gets the ball in tight, doesn't panic and uses it well. Ross is not a great tackler I'll give you that.

Graham is very much a running and linking player who has great gut running ability. He uses it pretty well enough because he is always on the move and takes pretty safe option, the 30-40m kick down the line usually hits a mark. But he is a low clearance player, and a pretty low contested possession player. Plus he doesn't get it much. He has cracked over 20 possessions 2 times in the last 21 matches. Ross 8 times in 24. He can also kick a lot further and with a lot more creativity. Graham is a good tackle and defensive player.

Can't find the score involvement stats, but Ross has played midfield, half back and wing. He played 4 games at half forward in late '22. But even in the game against Port this year he had 12 score involvements playing mid. Graham has played most of his games at high half forward, so you would expect more score involvements but his best in his career is 10. Ross's attacking game is so much better than Grahams.

Graham has had a few interrupted seasons with injury and when full fit he is not a bad player. But he missed 5 weeks and slotted straight back in, and it showed. Ross is improving, each year his numbers go up. He is finally being backed in by the coach and with games of 24 and 26 possessions in the last 3 weeks it show what the backing of a coach will do. Will he stay in the middle after Hopper and Prestia come back, maybe, but he can always take Graham's position, and there would be barely a ripple on the Richmond board.

You're trying desperately to justify why over a 68 game career his attacking stats are nearly identical to Graham. I've watched him closely and I don't see it. From what I've seen his disposal isn't terrible but it's completely vanilla.

Let's be honest. At best he's a B-grade attacking player. But he's proven himself a D-grade defensive player. Not just tackling either he gets absolutely burnt in transition.

Whatever. I can understand them playing him while you have injuries because he's probably better right now than Sonsie, Clarke, McAuliffe, etc and being competitive matters. It also lets Yze have a look at him to see whether there's actually anything there.

But if I were a Richmond fan I'd be filthy if you're still wasting your time with him once you get guys like Hopper and Baker back. Finals are almost certainly done so get games into guys who might actually be excellent AFL players rather than a guy who's had almost 70 games and shown his ceiling is a fringe player at best.

 

[Grrr]

You're trying desperately to justify why over a 68 game career his attacking stats are nearly identical to Graham. I've watched him closely and I don't see it. From what I've seen his disposal isn't terrible but it's completely vanilla.

Let's be honest. At best he's a B-grade attacking player. But he's proven himself a D-grade defensive player. Not just tackling either he gets absolutely burnt in transition.

Whatever. I can understand them playing him while you have injuries because he's probably better right now than Sonsie, Clarke, McAuliffe, etc and being competitive matters. It also lets Yze have a look at him to see whether there's actually anything there.

But if I were a Richmond fan I'd be filthy if you're still wasting your time with him once you get guys like Hopper and Baker back. Finals are almost certainly done so get games into guys who might actually be excellent AFL players rather than a guy who's had almost 70 games and shown his ceiling is a fringe player at best.

Trying desperately. You mean quoting facts. One plays half forward predominantly, one midfield predominantly. One has games of 12 and 14 score involvements whilst playing 4 games as a half forward, the other one's top is 118 games is 10. A bit selective for someone who is a stickler for numbers and stats.

Ross has some work to do defensively, especially on the transition I'll give you that. But Ross has not played aFL midfield for 2 years, so hopefully he can sort that out a bit. And will he keep his place in the midfield when we have no injuries, not sure, might go back to the wing where he played well enough.

Go over to the Richmond Board and read the threads on Graham and then Ross. You might find your balanced view is not so balanced. He may get found out down the track, right now he is playing well.

Not sure I would feel so well place to argue the merits of two Geelong players so vehemently as you do about Richmond player, in general as well as on this occasion.