Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Pessimistic]

Big question is can we make up for the likely dominance of Gawn and the rovers in the midfield.

There’s the inconvenience of the semi final first

 

[PerthBoy86]

There’s the inconvenience of the semi final first

Yep. Would definitely feel more comfortable facing Hawthorn than Melbourne, but still hoping Melbourne win. If they beat us at least they get a chance to play in a gf and break the drought, so it'll be a win win.

 

[PHX]

`I reckon Squiggle has it right.

Only question is Melbourne v West Coast Prelim. I reckon Melbourne can do a repeat of R23 and beat the Weags again in Perth.

Richmond Dees GF would be tremendous.

Melbourne's defense will be tested out a whole lot more having to pay attention to JJK and Darling in a prelim, who played little or no part in the R23 match.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yep. Would definitely feel more comfortable facing Hawthorn than Melbourne, but still hoping Melbourne win. If they beat us at least they get a chance to play in a gf and break the drought, so it'll be a win win.

That’s interesting as Melbourne are the flavour and we are rank outsiders. We love being under the radar though

Melbourne’s last two grand finals have née Washington general types , being smashed by Hawthorn 1988 and Essendon 2000. If they get there, could be a third

 

[Pessimistic]

Melbourne's defense will be tested out a whole lot more having to pay attention to JJK and Darling in a prelim, who played little or no part in the R23 match.

Yep it took almost the whole game to hit their straps, but were devastating when they did
FWIW hawks looked totally impotent v the eagles when we played earlier

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Melbourne's defense will be tested out a whole lot more having to pay attention to JJK and Darling in a prelim, who played little or no part in the R23 match.

The Demons rely on winning contested ball in the midfield. A matchup is less about their backs and more about WC moving it from defence to Darling and Kennedy. WC are underrated in that department though.

 

[PerthBoy86]

That’s interesting as Melbourne are the flavour and we are rank outsiders. We love being under the radar though

Melbourne’s last two grand finals have née Washington general types , being smashed by Hawthorn 1988 and Essendon 2000. If they get there, could be a third

Could well be. They're not as clean as the Tigers, but if they tighten up their game and become more efficient they could upset the Tiges.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Yep it took almost the whole game to hit their straps, but were devastating when they did
FWIW hawks looked totally impotent v the eagles when we played earlier

Eagles have been a bit like a freight train this year. Slow off the the mark but come steaming home. That's why I felt quite confident at 3 quarter time last night. It's a matter of not being too far behind so we can't catch up. If we're at front at 3q time I back us to win 4 out of 5.

 

[nobbyiscool]

That’s interesting as Melbourne are the flavour and we are rank outsiders. We love being under the radar though

It's not really that surprising - it happens pretty much every year. A team coming off a win vs a team coming off a loss seems to make people forget about the previous 23 weeks that earned those teams their respective ladder positions.

 

[Hobbes]

Richmond +8 v Hawthorn
Melbourne +1 v Geelong
Sydney v GWS +3
West Coast +10 v Collingwood

4/4. Yeah, anybody can tip favourites.

1. Melbourne 30.2 (+1)
2. Richmond 28.9 (-1)
3. (Geelong 21.6)
4. GWS 17.7 (+5)
5. West Coast 17.1 (+1)
6. (Essendon 15.9) (-2)
7. Hawthorn 14.5 (-2)
8. Collingwood 13.5 (-1)
9. (Adelaide 12.2) (-1)
10. (Sydney) 2.4

Hawthorn v Melbourne +16
Collingwood +1 v GWS

 

[iluvparis]

Eagles have been a bit like a freight train this year. Slow off the the mark but come steaming home. That's why I felt quite confident at 3 quarter time last night. It's a matter of not being too far behind so we can't catch up. If we're at front at 3q time I back us to win 4 out of 5.

Most clubs would win 4/5 games they led at 3/4 time

 

[fidstar]

Most clubs would win 4/5 games they led at 3/4 time

You didn't watch our last quarters last year did you?

 

[PerthBoy86]

Most clubs would win 4/5 games they led at 3/4 time

Well we do last quarters better than most. Some teams are known for choking.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Most clubs would win 4/5 games they led at 3/4 time

Indeed I don't think we've lost any games having led at three quarter time this year. Have been pretty clutch too.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Indeed I don't think we've lost any games having led at three quarter time this year. Have been pretty clutch too.

Just the Crows game.

 

[iluvparis]

You didn't watch our last quarters last year did you?

What - when you won 13 of the 16 games you led at 3/4 time? A rate BETTER than 4/5?

 

[00Stinger]

Richmond +8 v Hawthorn
Melbourne +1 v Geelong
Sydney v GWS +3
West Coast +10 v Collingwood

4/4. Yeah, anybody can tip favourites.

1. Melbourne 30.2 (+1)
2. Richmond 28.9 (-1)
3. (Geelong 21.6)
4. GWS 17.7 (+5)
5. West Coast 17.1 (+1)
6. (Essendon 15.9) (-2)
7. Hawthorn 14.5 (-2)
8. Collingwood 13.5 (-1)
9. (Adelaide 12.2) (-1)
10. (Sydney) 2.4

Hawthorn v Melbourne +16
Collingwood +1 v GWS

how are GWS higher in the ladder but underdogs v Collingwood?

 

[HTT]

how are GWS higher in the ladder but underdogs v Collingwood?

MCG

 

[Hobbes]

how are GWS higher in the ladder but underdogs v Collingwood?

GWS has a rating 4.2 points higher than Collingwood. My algorithm values the home ground advantage in NSW-Vic matches at 5.

 

[Roobs321]

Brave week by the squiggle, opting for 2 x straight sets. Demons by 3 goals and GWS by 1 pt.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

It's not really that surprising - it happens pretty much every year. A team coming off a win vs a team coming off a loss seems to make people forget about the previous 23 weeks that earned those teams their respective ladder positions.

This theory has doesn't hold up.

In the last 5 years (even though 4 Elimination Finalists have gone on to win their Semi Final), only 1 has entered the game as favourite. Sydney in 2017 (and we've all seen how Geelong handle Finals, so I think that was fair enough).

Melbourne are now the second team, quite possibly since the introduction of the current Final 8 system, to enter the Semi Final as favourite after coming off an elimination Final win.

 

[SuperSub17]

This theory has doesn't hold up.

In the last 5 years (even though 4 Elimination Finalists have gone on to win their Semi Final), only 1 has entered the game as favourite. Sydney in 2017 (and we've all seen how Geelong handle Finals, so I think that was fair enough).

Melbourne are now the second team, quite possibly since the introduction of the current Final 8 system, to enter the Semi Final as favourite after coming off an elimination Final win.

There have been plenty of favourites going back a little bit: West Coast 2012,
Sydney 2010, Adelaide 2009, Collingwood 2008, Hawthorn 2007 etc. Interestingly all of their opponents had come off comfortable/big losses to the minor premiers and bounced back to win - maybe that bodes well for the Hawks this week.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

There have been plenty of favourites going back a little bit: West Coast 2012,
Sydney 2010, Adelaide 2009, Collingwood 2008, Hawthorn 2007 etc. Interestingly all of their opponents had come off comfortable/big losses to the minor premiers and bounced back to win - maybe that bodes well for the Hawks this week.

I did find West Coast and Sydney, but the odds seemed pretty 50/50 depending where you look.

I didn't just choose 5 years to suit my argument (although it did, how about that?), I just think the game changes to such an extent that looking too far back to find patterns can be a waste of time.

Hawthorn's form line is a little stronger. They were more impressive against Richmond than Melbourne were against Geelong, so the odds seem a little off to me. I do think Melbourne have much more scope for improvement though.

 

[DanWCE]

Dat GWS movement is crazy! Both they and Melbourne make headway into historical premiership zones.

 

[Houston]

Where is Geelongs stupid sideways movement? Are 3 less scoring shots really the difference in defensive movement?