Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

BEaston · Jul 8, 2020

LicoriceAllsorts said:
Agreed. I think crowd is nowhere near that big of an impact. Especially in the AFL. In others sports yes, but in the AFL not really

I'm not saying that's the case, just asking the question.

Billy ray · Jul 8, 2020

Does the Squiggle have a beast-mode manual entry variable to cater for things such as Matt Rowell?

LicoriceAllsorts · Jul 8, 2020

BEaston said:
I'm not saying that's the case, just asking the question.

You should be saying it tho

Final Siren · Jul 9, 2020

For what it's worth, which is admittedly not a whole lot, this is Squiggle's idea of net Home Ground Advantage enjoyed over the first 5 rounds of 2020:

	HGA (points)
Greater Western Sydney	16.7
Brisbane Lions	16.1
Gold Coast	14.9
Geelong	6.0
Richmond	2.0
Sydney	0.4
Western Bulldogs	-1.0
St Kilda	-1.1
Essendon	-1.4
North Melbourne	-2.8
Collingwood	-3.0
Carlton	-3.7
Adelaide	-4.3
West Coast	-4.3
Melbourne	-4.7
Hawthorn	-5.3
Port Adelaide	-10.3
Fremantle	-14.3

GWS have had 4 games at Sydney Showgrounds (all against Melbourne-based teams), Brisbane have had 4 at the Gabba, and Gold Coast have had 4 at Carrara - and these teams have also played 1 away game with disadvantage.

At the other end, Port & Fremantle have played true away games against both Brisbane and Gold Coast while having no games with any home advantage.

Relatedly, Squiggle thinks Port have had the weakest opponents so far (by quite a long way), while GWS, Hawthorn, and St Kilda have had the toughest run.

Final Siren · Jul 9, 2020

Actually this is probably what I should have posted in the first place. From best fixture to worst in Rounds 1-5, the net benefit of Home Ground Advantage + strength of opposition:

	HGA	Opposition	Net Benefit
Port Adelaide	-10.3	60.2	49.9
Sydney	0.4	44.8	45.2
Geelong	6.0	20.1	26.1
Brisbane Lions	16.1	6.2	22.3
Fremantle	-14.3	34.4	20.1
Gold Coast	14.9	-1.9	13.0
West Coast	-4.3	15.8	11.5
Adelaide	-4.3	12.9	8.6
North Melbourne	-2.8	-6.4	-9.2
Essendon	-1.4	-11.4	-12.8
Carlton	-3.7	-18.3	-22.0
Collingwood	-3.0	-20.1	-23.1
Richmond	2.0	-29.0	-27.0
Western Bulldogs	-1.0	-27.6	-28.6
Melbourne	-4.7	-28.3	-33.0
Greater Western Sydney	16.7	-54.6	-37.9
St Kilda	-1.1	-47.9	-48.9
Hawthorn	-5.3	-48.6	-53.9

Joao · Jul 9, 2020

So you're saying we should put the house on the Hawks for the flag Final Siren ?

Final Siren · Jul 9, 2020

Joao said:
So you're saying we should put the house on the Hawks for the flag Final Siren ?

I mean I'm not saying NOT to.

Simon_Nesbit · Jul 9, 2020

So for the first time in history, the AFL has been able to actively manipulate the schedule during the season ......

and in a surprise to absolutely no-one, Hawthorn have the hardest run, whilst Geelong and the Interstate teams have the easiest?

Just because we're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after us.....

iluvparis · Jul 9, 2020

Simon_Nesbit said:
So for the first time in history, the AFL has been able to actively manipulate the schedule during the season ......

and in a surprise to absolutely no-one, Hawthorn have the hardest run, whilst Geelong and the Interstate teams have the easiest?

Just because we're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after us.....

If you can't work out why the interstate sides have had the easiest run this thread is probably too advanced for you.

Simon_Nesbit · Jul 9, 2020

iluvparis said:
If you can't work out why the interstate sides have had the easiest run this thread is probably too advanced for you.

You've got your hat, I've got my foil....if it makes you feel better, remove the interstate sides from the comparison, and just think about the AFL's GM Football....

Dr Tigris · Jul 10, 2020

Simon_Nesbit said:
So for the first time in history, the AFL has been able to actively manipulate the schedule during the season ......

and in a surprise to absolutely no-one, Hawthorn have the hardest run, whilst Geelong and the Interstate teams have the easiest?

Just because we're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after us.....

All of which likely means that as the season progresses, all being equal, you'll get a soft run home.

All is not equal this year. So probably the Hawks will be persecuted on the basis of Squiggle analytics for the rest of 2020.

_DBF_ · Jul 10, 2020

What's wrong with the in-game Squiggle at the moment?

Final Siren · Jul 11, 2020

_DBF_ said:
What's wrong with the in-game Squiggle at the moment?

Now fixed! I switched over to the Squiggle API for live scores, but didn't notice it uses a number like 75% for the amount of game time completed, instead of 0.75. So instead of calculating that there was 0.25 of the game left, it thought there was -74, which produced weird extrapolations.

Final Siren · Jul 11, 2020

LicoriceAllsorts said:
You should be saying it tho

I saw an NRL example the other day that suggested fans turn up in very different numbers depending on whose home game it is, which means they have games where almost everything is the same except relative levels of fan support. I have no idea if that's true, but if so it's pretty hard to escape the conclusion that crowds mean a lot:

LicoriceAllsorts · Jul 11, 2020

Final Siren said:
I saw an NRL example the other day that suggested fans turn up in very different numbers depending on whose home game it is, which means they have games where almost everything is the same except relative levels of fan support. I have no idea if that's true, but if so it's pretty hard to escape the conclusion that crowds mean a lot:
View attachment 910278

Once again different sport

dockerfemme · Jul 12, 2020

Final Siren said:
Actually this is probably what I should have posted in the first place. From best fixture to worst in Rounds 1-5, the net benefit of Home Ground Advantage + strength of opposition:

HGA
Opposition
Net Benefit
Port Adelaide
-10.3
60.2
49.9
Sydney
0.4
44.8
45.2
Geelong
6.0
20.1
26.1
Brisbane Lions
16.1
6.2
22.3
Fremantle
-14.3
34.4
20.1
Gold Coast
14.9
-1.9
13.0
West Coast
-4.3
15.8
11.5
Adelaide
-4.3
12.9
8.6
North Melbourne
-2.8
-6.4
-9.2
Essendon
-1.4
-11.4
-12.8
Carlton
-3.7
-18.3
-22.0
Collingwood
-3.0
-20.1
-23.1
Richmond
2.0
-29.0
-27.0
Western Bulldogs
-1.0
-27.6
-28.6
Melbourne
-4.7
-28.3
-33.0
Greater Western Sydney
16.7
-54.6
-37.9
St Kilda
-1.1
-47.9
-48.9
Hawthorn
-5.3
-48.6
-53.9

Hello Final Siren

I am interested in how you have assessed the difficulty of opposition. I know that this was posted before this weekend's round.

At that point in time the Eagles and Dockers at had played 3 of the same teams - Port, Brisbane and Gold Coast.

The Eagles had also played Melbourne and Sydney - 2 teams that look to be bottom 6. The Dockers had also played Adelaide, the worst team in the comp, and Essendon a top 8, maybe top 6 team.

By your statistical assessment this translates into the Eagles' draw being more than twice as difficult as the Dockers'.

I would say this doesn't pass a pub test. Can you explain please?

_DBF_ · Jul 12, 2020

squiggle having a different fit today lol

iluvparis · Jul 13, 2020

LicoriceAllsorts said:
Once again different sport

Lol what makes NRL so special that it would generate different kind of home ground advantages than AFL? It's not like Ice Hockey where the home team gets to send out their line second.

No wonder the world is in the place that it is right now with so many happy to be completely ignorant to FACTS

LittleG · Jul 13, 2020

iluvparis said:
Lol what makes NRL so special that it would generate different kind of home ground advantages than AFL? It's not like Ice Hockey where the home team gets to send out their line second.

No wonder the world is in the place that it is right now with so many happy to be completely ignorant to FACTS

Are these Facts, FACTS, core facts, fake facts, left facts, right facts or ordinary everyday facts?
I get confused....

iluvparis · Jul 13, 2020

LittleG said:
Are these Facts, FACTS, core facts, fake facts, left facts, right facts or ordinary everyday facts?
I get confused....

That's because they want you to be confused. Be better

LicoriceAllsorts · Jul 13, 2020

iluvparis said:
Lol what makes NRL so special that it would generate different kind of home ground advantages than AFL? It's not like Ice Hockey where the home team gets to send out their line second.

No wonder the world is in the place that it is right now with so many happy to be completely ignorant to FACTS

Because one team possesses the ball at a time. In the AFL the ball is constantly in dispute unless having a set shot. As for other sports, across the US and Europe, AFL crowds are much more of a 50/50 mix than those and so HGA from crowds is extremely diluted in comparison.

Not sure where these 'facts' are but I'd love to see them. It's pure speculation really

HTT · Jul 13, 2020

Interesting, I'm of the view crowds are the biggest part of HGA generally, since even in sports where there are no other differences between games, HGA is still roughly the same.

But doing some quick, maybe dodgy work with the Squiggle API (like - seriously - this is the first time I've used it or anything like it, so if someone wants double check feel free), I found that home teams are averaging 13.45 PPG higher than away teams on average this season. No other year available (that is 2011 onwards) matches this, the next highest is 9.55 in 2016, the lowest 4.08 in 2013.

Obviously there's other factors that make this year different since pretty much all travelling teams have been in hubs or travelled on the day which is probably not ideal, and its not nearly a full season of games, but the discrepancy is pretty big.

Final Siren · Jul 14, 2020

dockerfemme said:
Hello Final Siren

I am interested in how you have assessed the difficulty of opposition. I know that this was posted before this weekend's round.

At that point in time the Eagles and Dockers at had played 3 of the same teams - Port, Brisbane and Gold Coast.

The Eagles had also played Melbourne and Sydney - 2 teams that look to be bottom 6. The Dockers had also played Adelaide, the worst team in the comp, and Essendon a top 8, maybe top 6 team.

By your statistical assessment this translates into the Eagles' draw being more than twice as difficult as the Dockers'.

I would say this doesn't pass a pub test. Can you explain please?

Sure! You are applying a description ("more than twice as difficult") to a data set that doesn't suit it, because it's made up of differentials vs league average.

If, for example, the average length of every post in this thread is 200 words, but my posts average 210 words and yours average 220 words, then my differential is +10 and yours is +20. But it's not correct to say that your posts are twice as long as mine.

Final Siren · Jul 14, 2020

harrythetiger said:
Interesting, I'm of the view crowds are the biggest part of HGA generally, since even in sports where there are no other differences between games, HGA is still roughly the same.

But doing some quick, maybe dodgy work with the Squiggle API (like - seriously - this is the first time I've used it or anything like it, so if someone wants double check feel free), I found that home teams are averaging 13.45 PPG higher than away teams on average this season. No other year available (that is 2011 onwards) matches this, the next highest is 9.55 in 2016, the lowest 4.08 in 2013.

Obviously there's other factors that make this year different since pretty much all travelling teams have been in hubs or travelled on the day which is probably not ideal, and its not nearly a full season of games, but the discrepancy is pretty big.

And every home team won last round, even though none of them were playing at home!

I do think you have to be very careful with HGA because it's a pretty small effect in a sport where the average error of an expert margin prediction is about 26 points. (A bit less this year, probably because of shorter quarters and therefore lower scores.) So you need a fair amount of data before you can conclude much.

GROTTO · Jul 14, 2020

Final Siren said:
And every home team won last round, even though none of them were playing at home!

I do think you have to be very careful with HGA because it's a pretty small effect in a sport where the average error of an expert margin prediction is about 26 points. (A bit less this year, probably because of shorter quarters and therefore lower scores.) So you need a fair amount of data before you can conclude much.

From recent memory, has every home team won before in a round?

With the data, is it ever possible to get a realistic meaningful sample size to interpret results? Given that squads, coaches, staff etc change so frequently.

As an example, a few back Squiggle had the Crows to beat the Suns. We all knew the Crows form going in and also their form over the last 5 years v Suns, however we also know that the team in 2020 is completely and dramatically different to the team in the final round of last year.

FYI. Love your work. Keep it up. Find it very fascinating. Im not nitpicking as I enjoy your interpretation of the data.

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