Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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Brisbane at 8 is an interesting output. Most pundits would have them higher, probably top 4 and flag contenders given their acquisitions.
 

LicoriceAllsorts

What colour's 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 Bugatti?
Feb 25, 2013
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Brisbane at 8 is an interesting output. Most pundits would have them higher, probably top 4 and flag contenders given their acquisitions.
Squiggle always underrates Brisbane in pre-season (in the last 3-4 years at least).
 

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iBeng

Intentionally left blank
Apr 3, 2012
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Its all over for Brisbane, we had a good run but back we go to obscurity!
 

lewdogs

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Jun 4, 2008
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If it predicted Brisbane to lose a game then the entire model needs to be thrown out.
 

X_box_X

The Opportunist
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Bulldogs' 2023 Draft will receive a boost if Brisbane are eliminated in week one of finals.
 

LeverPuller

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Jun 23, 2011
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Very generous of Carlton. Underestimating the Pies again.
I don’t think it’s a massive underestimation given there is less than a win from 2-6 and 2 wins from 2-10. Worth noting that apart from Geelong every side from last year’s top 4 is rated at 13 wins.

Biggest one for mine is Freo. 15 wins and a draw plus a win in the finals and only slates them at 11.4??
 

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BigCat2

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2006
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Only 1.2 wins separate 2nd and 8th positions. Wouldn't worry about rankings in that group.

In fact, only 2.4 wins separate 2nd and 12th. Shows a bunch of teams finished close to each other at the end of last year. Open start to season 2023, outside of Geelong.
 
Apr 19, 2006
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Squiggle overestimate’s hawthorn (going by all the talk that we and north are spoon locks)
Squiggle rates the return of our injured players more than the losses, according to final siren, which is kinda ironic as last year I queried in here why the Squiggle had such a low opinion of Sicily and Gunston returning from injury.

 
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Purple Suit

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Sep 30, 2011
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The squiggle really must rate the losses of Mundy, Lobb and Logue, or the analytics just don’t paint Freo as a damaging side?
No doubt it’ll be all Lobb as he kicked the most goals for us last year. He hasn’t done that any other year and we have enough talent coming through to replace his output.
 

tonygeeks

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 11, 2016
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Hasn’t been many recent seasons Freo hasn’t outperformed squiggles pre season prediction if I remember correctly so I wouldn’t worry too much
 

threenewpadlocks

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Sep 10, 2012
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Re Freo:

Fremantle had a 13-point win with 2 fewer scoring shots, at home (so arguably a loss at a neutral venue given strong HGA), followed by a 20-point loss with 10 fewer scoring shots away (so arguably a worse loss than the scoring margin suggested given Freo only generated 14 scoring shots), to teams that both had H&A percentages only just above 100% on the season. That indicates that they were two pretty poor performances in finals against two other teams that in turn were pretty average on the season.

People love trying to come up with complex reasons to obvious simple things that have an answer. Fremantle across their two most recent matches (any very relevant on form), arguably did not play up to even a top-8 team standard. Strange it hasn't been said so far!
 

tonygeeks

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 11, 2016
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Re Freo:

Fremantle had a 13-point win with 2 fewer scoring shots, at home (so arguably a loss at a neutral venue given strong HGA), followed by a 20-point loss with 10 fewer scoring shots away (so arguably a worse loss than the scoring margin suggested given Freo only generated 14 scoring shots), to teams that both had H&A percentages only just above 100% on the season. That indicates that they were two pretty poor performances in finals against two other teams that in turn were pretty average on the season.

People love trying to come up with complex reasons to obvious simple things that have an answer. Fremantle across their two most recent matches (any very relevant on form), arguably did not play up to even a top-8 team standard. Strange it hasn't been said so far!

That’s fair enough but we were pretty young , couple of tough finals wouldn’t have hurt us too much

Graph is just before the last round I think

IMG_0117.JPG
 

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